Times are changing and Twitter has quickly become a great source of sports information. Everyone from sports stars to professional sports writers to internet-famed sports bloggers are writing daily. So TheFantasyFix.com decided it was far by time to do a roundtable with the LADIES of TWITTER!
So here was the question:
As the conclusion of the 2010 Major League Baseball regular season approaches, we would like to identify those players who fell short of expectations (busts) and those who exceeded expectations (surprises).
Name one bust/surprise to this point of the 2010 season (describe their 2010) and state what you expect from them in the 2011 season. (rebound, maintain, regress etc..)
And away we go!...
Biggest Bust Of 2010: Jason Bay | LF | New York Mets
Jason Bay was a highly coveted free agent after the 2009 season. He was a three-time All-Star who had just hit .267 with 36 home runs and 119 RBIs. With the exception of a .745 OPS in 2007, Bay had an OPS of near .900 or better every season from 2003-09.
As a result, the New York Mets rewarded him with one of the worst contracts in Major League Baseball – a four-year, $66 million deal that could top $80 million with a vesting option in the fifth year.
Bay will turn 32 in less than a month. His age, history of injuries (shoulder surgery in 2003 and arthroscopic knee surgery in 2006), and subpar defense (lifetime UZR/150 of -7.8 in left field) should have deterred the Mets from offering such a lopsided contract. The Boston Red Sox’s best offer in retaining Bay was a four-year deal between $60 million and $65 million; they refused to include a fifth year.
Thus, with his monstrous contract and even higher expectations for on-field performance, Bay is the biggest bust of 2010. He has not played since suffering a concussion in July nor do the Mets expect him to come back before season’s end.
Not only was his fielding below average (-3.9 UZR/150), he struggled with swinging the bat. Bay was batting .259 with six home runs, 47 RBIs, and an OPS of .749. He’ll most likely miss 40% of the season. The Mets clearly didn’t pay Bay an average of $16.5 million a year for him to play bad defense, hit an offensive wall, and then sit out with an injury.
Biggest Surprise Of 2010: Jaime Garcia | LHP | St. Louis Cardinals
Jaime Garcia was drafted 680th overall in the 22nd round of the 2005 draft by the St. Louis Cardinals. After making appearances in ten games in 2008, he underwent Tommy John surgery. He came back in 2009 to pitch 37 2/3 innings in the minors.
No one expected Garcia to make the Cardinals’ 40-man roster. Manager, Tony La Russa, and pitching coach, Dave Duncan, both told Garcia numerous times in spring training that a return to Triple-A Memphis would be more beneficial to his development.
Instead, Garcia was so impressive with a 3.00 ERA and a 4.0 K/BB ratio in 24 IP that he earned the No. five spot in the starting rotation.
This season, he has astounded everyone with his prowess on the mound. He is now the No. three pitcher on staff after aces Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright. Of his 25 starts, 17 are quality starts. His ERA of 2.33 is the sixth best in the NL and his GB% of 55.2% ranks third in the NL.
After Garcia got off to a hot start with a 1.04 ERA in April and 1.53 ERA in May, many worried that he had hit a rookie wall. His 4.50 ERA in June was highlighted by a 2.0 IP outing against the Kansas City Royals where he gave up five earned runs, the most allowed by Garcia this year.
However, he has bounced back in the last two months and hasn’t given up an earned run in his last three starts. He even pitched his first ever complete game shutout on August 22nd against the San Francisco Giants in 89 pitches.
Garcia has been a highly reliable arm in the wake of injuries to starters Brad Penny and Kyle Lohse. The lift he has given the Cardinals cannot be understated or overlooked, especially after coming back from Tommy John surgery.
Susan Shan, known as the Asian Sensation, is an independent sports analyst and writer. Check out Susan's writing, radio appearances, and video clips at http://www.susanshan.com. Feel free to tweet at her at http://twitter.com/susan_shan, as well. She's all about sports, all the time.
Biggest Surprise of 2010: Scott Rolen | 3B | Cincinnati Reds
When Walt Jocketty traded for Scott Rolen on July 31st of last year, he was looking for veteran leadership, everyday all out effort, consistent hitting, strong RBI production and Gold Glove caliber fielding from the 34 yr old. Jocketty knew exactly what he was getting in Rolen. He was GM of the Cardinals in July 2002 when he traded four players to get Rolen from the Phillies. He also knew he was taking on Rolen’s eight-year, $90 million deal he signed him to in St. Louis. Rolen was a five-time All-Star, a seven- time Gold Glover and the 1997 NL Rookie of the Year with Philadelphia. He helped lead St. Louis to their 2006 World Series win.
While Rolen was still playing Gold Glove-caliber defense at the hot corner, and was having a fine season at the plate, he had seen a dip in his power numbers. He was due $11 million last year and in 2010. That salary and the fact that injuries had limited Scott over the past four seasons, was seen as a major drawback. He was averaging just 379 at bats per season. This trade was not looked upon as a stellar one by many Cincy fans and some members of the press.
Those that doubted the trade have been pleasantly surprised. He has provided everything that Jocketty was sure he could. From his veteran leadership to his increased power numbers, Rolen has been one of the key catalysts for the Reds turnaround this season.
While appearing in just 106 games due to a hamstring injury, the 35 yr old Rolen is 2nd behind the hot as the face of the sun Joey Votto in most of the Reds major hitting numbers. Rolen has 19 home runs and has driven in 73 RBI. He has a .366 OBP, .528 SLG, .294 AVG and .893 OPS. All put him in 2nd place on the Reds roster. He has a .996 FPCT which is 2nd for 3rd basemen in the majors in 2010. He leads all active major league 3rd basemen in assists and Total Zone Runs and is 2nd for all active 3rd basemen in Range Factor per game. He ranks 6th in the NL in slugging and 9th in OPS for this season. He was named to the 2010 NL All Star Team. He also renegotiated his contract to assist the Reds and instead of the $11 million he was due, he deferred his salary and is making ‘only’ $7.6 million.
As of the All Star break, in the year since they acquired Rolen, the Reds were 70 and 42 when he’s in the lineup and 12-26 when he’s not.
He is projected to hit 25 HR’s and drive in 96 RBI, with a .366 OBP, .528 SLG and an .893 OPS in 2010. If he stays healthy, there is no reason to believe his 15th yr in the majors will show much regression.
Irony watch: St.Louis is on the hook for paying the $4 million bonus due to Rolen in 2010.
Written by Jacqueline Hadley Conrad. Follow her on twitter @jhadleyconrad
Biggest Bust of 2010: Carlos Zambrano | RHP | Chicago Cubs
RHP Carlos Zambrano was reinstated from the restricted list on July 30th of this year. That about sums up his 2010 season. Zambrano threw a tirade in the dugout on June 25th, after he gave up four runs in the first inning to their crosstown rivals, the White Sox. He then started a fight with teammate Derrek Lee. The Cubs coaching staff had to separate the two players. Piniella did not let Zambrano back in the game and he was later suspended indefinitely by the Cubs GM. Zambrano had to undergo anger management training during his suspension.
Zambrano started the season as the Cubbies ace. He stumbled badly and gave up 8 runs to the Braves in one and a third innings. The Cubbies lost the game 16-5. His season has been up and down since that day. On April 21st he was sent to the bullpen. On May 30th the Cubbies moved Zambrano back to the rotation. In his four starts before his meltdown he went 2 and 2.
After he returned from suspension he was moved back to the bullpen until Aug 9th. The Cubbies returned Zambrano to the rotation for the second time this season. He hasn't given up more than two runs and he's allowed only six runs in 24 innings.
Although Zambrano has had some good results since his return, his velocity is diminished and his command is poor, which has always been his weakness. The $18 million the Cubbies are paying Zambrano has produced a W/L record of 5 wins and 6 losses. He has an ERA of 4.64 and a WHIP of 1.680. His W/L % is .455 with 0 shut outs and 72 strike outs.
Compare that to his career averages of 110 wins and 74 losses, a 3.57 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. His career W/L % is .598 with 4 shut outs and 1396 strike outs. Between 2003 and 2006 he never had less than 13 wins. In 2007 he had 18 wins and 13 losses with a 3.95 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP.
He lead the NL in wins in 2006, is a three time All Star, as well as a three time Silver Slugger. From pitching a no hitter and playing in the All Star Game in 2008 to the disaster of this year, Zambrano is certainly a major disappointment.
Written by Jacqueline Hadley Conrad. Check out Cardinal Diamond Diaries for more great articles!
Biggest Surprise of 2010: Jose Bautista | OF | Toronto Blue Jays
I’d like to thank the Fantasy Fix for inviting me to the roundtable...and I’d like to curse the Fantasy Fix for inviting me to the roundtable. Having to choose just one surprise and one bust for the 2010 MLB season? For someone who tends to overanalyze, overthink and obsess about every little detail, this was no easy task. Here goes.
Let’s start with my 2010 surprise: Toronto Blue Jays’ right fielder Jose Bautista. If you don’t know why I chose Bautista, that’s an even bigger surprise than his astounding numbers. Through 127 games, Bautista’s slash line is a remarkable .263/.380/.616, good for an eye-popping .996 OPS. That’s not why I chose Bautista. No, I chose him because of his Major League leading 42 home runs. Forty-two home runs (so far) from a player who has never topped 20 in a single season; from a player with his fifth team in six years. Bautista’s home runs (42) and RBI (99) totals so far are higher than those from his last two seasons combined. Whether it’s fantasy or reality, nobody in their right mind could have expected this output from Bautista.
I did not choose Bautista to capitalize on sensationalistic speculation about potential PED use. I did not choose him because he’s a Yankee killer (.366/.527/.854; 6 HR in 12 games). I chose him solely because his production has been flat-out incredible, and completely surprising. For more, I recommend this piece by Fanhouse’s Frankie Pilliere about Bautista’s altered swing mechanics as a key to his success.
Do I expect Bautista to replicate this season? No way. This is truly a once in a lifetime year. Do I think he can hit 30 home runs per season with regular playing time and adequate protection in the lineup? Absolutely. Note that Bautista will be a free agent after this season.
Biggest Bust of 2010: Pablo Sandoval | 1B/3B | San Francisco Giants
Now for my choice for 2010 MLB bust. Unfortunately, I had many to choose from, including Josh Beckett and Chase Utley, but I wanted to avoid guys who have been injured and missed significant time. So who did I select as this year’s biggest disappointment? San Francisco Giant 1B/3B Pablo Sandoval. Though his position on the MLB All-Fat Team is secure, poor Kung Fu Panda just hasn’t lived up to expectations after his breakout rookie season. Let’s look at the numbers:
That’s a big drop, but most stunning is his inability to deliver with RISP this season. Last year, Sandoval hit .301/.390/.517 with RISP. In 2010 it’s .207/.294/.267. Those numbers are terrible, in both fantasy and reality. Admittedly, RISP production is often erratic, and for the long haul, players are rarely "clutch" or "unclutch." Assuming Sandoval is an .800 OPS hitter (somewhere between his 2009 and 2010 numbers), that's in the ballpark of what’s expected with RISP (rather than 2009's insanely good numbers in that spot, or 2010's horribly bad ones).
Sandoval’s hitting has improved since Pat Burrell joined the Giants, and his K rate is about the same as last season’s. I would not give up on KFP. Next season I expect better than this season’s performance, but to come close to 2009 he needs to improve his numbers with RISP. If the Giants bring in another big bat to protect their rotund star, he has a chance.
All data in this post sourced from Baseball-Reference.com, without which posts like this would be impossible.
Amanda Rykoff is a NYC-based sports fan, TiVo junkie and social media enthusiast. Amanda shares her observations, commentary and diatribes on these and many other topics on her blog, The OCD Chick. She is a former Director of Business Affairs at ESPN and previously hosted the ESPN podcast, “Play Ball! with Amanda and Melissa.” Her fantasy baseball team, Longorious Basterds, is currently in second place but hopes to make a late season push for the title. You can follow her on Twitter @amandarykoff.
After acquiring Cliff Lee, Milton Bradley and Chone Figgins over the winter, the Seattle Mariners were thought to be a key contender in 2010. However, things did not go the way the franchise had planned. Bradley took a leave of absence to deal with personal issues, leaving him on the bench as a utility man, and Lee, perennial trade bait, was sent to the Texas Rangers in July. That left Figgins to provide the Mariners with the solace that their off-season aggressiveness wasn’t all for naught.
In 2009, Chone Figgins was among American League leaders in WAR, on-base %, tripples and stolen bases. He also led the league in walks, finished 10th in MVP voting and also played in his first All-Star Game. He was batting .292 in five full seasons as an Angel, averaging 162 hits, 52 RBI, and 44 stolen bases in 850 games from 2004-2009. After swinging at a career high 22.3% of pitches outside of the strike zone in 2007, his plate discipline was improving drastically, with his o-swing% in 2008 and 2009 at 16.5% and 15.1% respectively. He was considered one of the most desirable free agents on the market following the 2009 season.
When Figgins arrived in Seattle, however, he was another player. In 127 games in 2010, Figgins is batting well below his career batting average, at .246. His o-swing% has crept to 19.7%. His saving grace from a fantasy perspective is that he has still stolen 32 bases, but for the most part, that is where his allure ends. ESPN buffs project that he will have another turn-around year in 2011, and for the sake of his 4-year, $36 million agreement with the Mariners, I hope they’re right.
Biggest Surprise Of 2010: Carlos Ruiz | C | Philadelphia Phillies
In his first three full seasons with the Philadelphia Phillies, Ruiz was batting .245, and averaged 83 hits and 43 RBIs in 339 games. Among MLB catchers with a minimum 330 plate appearances, his batting average ranked 15th in 2007, 23rd in 2008, and 13th in 2009. In 2010, he is batting a career high .287, second only to Joe Mauer.
To date, Chooch has started 84 games, and sat out 20 days with a concussion. Before being placed on the disabled list, Ruiz was hitting .275. Since returning to the lineup on July 10, he is batting .301 with an on-base percentage of .359 and slugging .496 in 40 games. Ruiz also has 22 of his 35 RBIs since July 10 and has had 10 go-ahead hits year to date.
What’s easy to forget is that while 2010 may be the year of the pitcher, there is a catcher behind every staff ace. On April 5, Roy Halladay made his first start as a Phillie and reportedly never shook off Chooch once. On May 29, Doc pitched the 20th perfect game in history as Ruiz called the game from behind the plate. When the Phillies honored the perfect game on August 26, Doc presented Ruiz with a ring engraved with the phrase “We Did It Together”.
Chooch has been a remarkable asset to the team both at and behind the plate, and if the projections are any indication, he will continue to lead the Phillies in their playoff hunt.
Founded by Michelle O’Malley (@M_OMalley on Twitter), Chicks Dig the Long Ball is a Philadelphia Phillies baseball blog written solely by women from all over the country. Game recaps range from the traditional play-by-play and box score style articles, to limericks, to virtual Twitter archives. Mixed in amongst all the statistical analysis are heartfelt pleas to underperforming players, odes to the plays that leave us speechless and even recipes dedicated to our men in red. It is ever expanding and still finding its niche in the Phillies blogosphere, but day after day proves that chicks do in fact dig not only the long ball but every other facet of the game as well.
Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Sports Blog, Fantasy Sports Advice, Fantasy Baseball, MLB, Twitter, Jaime Garcia, Jason Bay, Carlos Zambrano, Scott Rolen, Jose Bautista, Pablo Sandoval, Chone Figgins, Carlos Ruiz, St. Louis Cardinals, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, Cincinnati Reds, Toronto Blue Jays, San Francisco Giants, Seattle Mariners, Philadelphia Phillies
Shhhhh….if you listen closely you can hear the huge sigh of relief from the Brazilian contingency on tour! The Billabong Pro Tahiti held at Teahupoo – the greatest spectator surf contest in the world has been regulated to nothing more exciting than the US Open in Huntington Beach. This is my favorite contest to watch on tour…when there is swell. It keeps the best surfers in the world awake at with sweats and images of being impaled on the deadly reef at Teahupoo. But this year, like last year – nothing.
Tamaroa McComb
I selected my team for the contest based on my hope for a solid swell. I went with a crew of guys known to charge anything thrown their way. With no swell for the entire contest waiting period, I know I should have gone back and altered my line up and replaced my die hard chargers like Andy Irons, Kelly Slater and the Hobgoods with Brazilian air reverse kings Jadson Andre and Adriano de Souza. However, stupidly, I am sticking with my team. I am still holding out for a magical phantom swell that will send the weak to the reef and the heavies into the winners circle.
Tamaroa Mccomb – local wildcard –cheap- and local knowledge may get him the best waves
Manoa Drollet – see above – if there was swell he would go far
Damien Hobgood – how is it that Floridians are some of the best barrel riders on the planet?
CJ Hobgood – see Damien!
Andy Irons
Andy Irons – expect an early exit – 3 foot Teahupoo will not keep his attention
Kelly Slater - needs a win to keep title hopes alive
Bobby Martinez – previous contest winner and can do well in sub-par conditions
Fred Patacchia – goofy footer barrel rider
Patrick Reilly is not a grom. He is actually the Fantasy Surfer Editor @TheFantasyFix.com. Email - Patrick@thefantasyfix.com
Who is in your starting lineup for the Billabong Pro Tahiti? Let us know on Twitter @TheFantasyFix!
Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Sports Blog, Fantasy Surfer, Pro Surfing, Patrick Reilly, Billabong, Billabong Pro Tahiti, Andy Irons, Kelly Slater, Jadson Andre, Adriano de Souza, Tamaroa McComb, Manoa Drollet, Damien Hobgood, CJ Hobgood, Bobby Martinez, Fred Patacchia
Greetings fantasy baseballers and welcome to another edition of the Wire. Hopefully you heeded the past weeks’ advice and picked up Pat Burrell, Mike Minor, Daniel Hudson and others, before it was too late. This week is sort of a special edition with a look at a trio of closers – mostly of the present, and mostly with no future. Regardless, they have one thing in common – they will receive the lion’s share of save opportunities for their respective teams. That translates to the potential to rack up some fantasy points all over the land. And the first contestant is…
Hisanori Takahashi, RP – NYM – Owned in 18% of CBS leagues
Mr. Takahashi has been somewhat of an enigma for the Metropolitans this season. He had success as a reliever early on, often times bailing out the starters by providing two or three innings of solid relief.
In fact, in his first 15 relief appearances for the Mets, he went two-plus innings seven times. Before being moved into the rotation on May 21, Takahashi put up three wins with a 3.12 ERA in 24.2 IP and a 33:14 K:BB ratio – not too shabby.
At that point, the Mets rotation started to fall apart and he was summoned to the rotation. In 12 starts, he did not fare nearly as well, posting a 4-4 record with a 5.01 ERA while surrendering 73 hits in 64.2 innings. In addition, opposing hitters batted a robust .291 against him in those starts.
Manuel had seen enough of Takahashi the starter and summoned Takashi the reliever, replacing him with Pat Misch in the rotation. Now with the Francisco Rodriguez meltdown and subsequent thumb injury, Manuel has named Takahashi his closer. He brings a year of closing experience from his tenure in the Japanese league. In his sole save opportunity, he closed out the Astros in a hitless inning this week.
You can ride Takahashi for as long as Manuel keeps him as the closer. Keep in mind that the Mets also have Bobby Parnell, who has pitched well as of late. Manual may throw some save chances his way to see how he performs in a late-inning role.
Hong-Chih Kuo, RP – LA – Owned in 13% of CBS leagues
The main difference between Kuo and Takahashi is that Kuo has been in a late inning relief role for his team, the Dodgers, the entire season. Furthermore, he has posted great stats thus far and has been the bridge that every team searches for to get the ball to the closer.
Unfortunately for Jonathan Broxton, the now-deposed closer, Kuo has pitched so well that he’s replacing Broxton, for the time being at least. If the Dodgers have any chance of making the playoffs, they cannot afford any more meltdowns by the usually-dominating Broxton. This was the main impetus behind Joe Torre’s decision to switch their roles in the ‘pen.
Including Kuo’s first two save opportunities, he has put up an ERA of 1.48 on the season, which was inflated by more than half a run after his implosion against Atlanta. Torre summoned Kuo in the 8th inning, much like he used to with Mariano in his Yankee days. Kuo ran into trouble in the 9th and blew the save. In 42.3 innings pitched this season, Kuo has a tremendous 52:14 K:BB ratio with a miniscule 0.85 WHIP along with three wins and four saves. Kuo has been nothing short of dominant this season and now stands to gain a boat-load of value in fantasy leagues. One would have to believe that as long as he’s successful in the closer’s role, Torre will leave him there.
The Dodgers also have Octavio Dotel to vulture a few saves, but for now Kuo is the closer in LA. He’s a must-add to fantasy rosters as CBS owners have demonstrated, making him the most added player in CBS fantasy leagues. His ownership will jump to 47% next week, which is still rather low. Grab him while you can.
Trevor Hoffman, RP – MIL – Owned in 27% of CBS leagues
Mr. Hoffman has had a rocky 2010 thus far. In the first half of the season, he was tagged for four losses and blew five of his ten save opportunities. He had an ERA of 8.33 heading into the All-Star break. In 27 innings, he gave up 25 runs on 34 hits along with an unimpressive 17:13 K:BB ratio. These are hardly the numbers expected from Hoffman, or any closer in the league for that matter.
Since the All-Star break, Hoffman has had a bit of a resurgence. In 12 appearances, his ERA is a more respectable 3.09 along with a 10:4 K:BB ratio. Opposing batters are hitting only .227 against him versus .306 before the break.
With Milwaukee out of the playoff race and not much else to play for, manager Ken Macha has decided to give Hoffman save opportunities once again. The Brewers would love for Hoffman to reach the 600 save mark and give them something to cheer about in the closing weeks of the season.
John Axford presumably will continue to get his chances as well, which makes Hoffman far from a sure thing to score significant points for your team. Regardless, Macha will give him every chance to add to his save total. If you have the stomach for it, pick up Hoffman sooner rather than later and hope for the best, especially if you need to bolster your Save category.
HONORABLE MENTION
Omar Infante, 2B – ATL – Owned in 34% of CBS leagues Filled in admirably for Martin Prado at 2B and will get regular AB’s with Chipper out for the season. Hits righties and lefties well. Batting .361 since the break with a .862 OPS and has hit over .300 every month except for one this season.
Jose Guillen, OF – SF – Owned in 45% of CBS leagues Guillen will get a decent amount of AB’s in SF. While he won’t hit for average, he surely has some pop left in his bat. Hitting .375 for the Giants since the trade and has 17 HR’s on the season.
Chris Denorfia, CF – SD – Owned in 4% of CBS leagues Denorfia is batting .321 since the break with a 1.039 OPS. He has six homers and 16 RBI plus four SB’s in the second half. Solid pick up for deeper leagues.
Written by Rosti Satanovsky exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. You can follow him on Facebook or Twitter@TheSportsFariah
Who are your NL waiver wire gems of the week? Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on Twitter@TheFantasyFix
Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, Fantasy Sports Blog, The NL Wire, Waiver Wire, Mike Minor, Pat Burrell, Daniel Hudson, Hisanori Takahashi, Pat Misch, Francisco Rodriguez, Hong-Chih Kuo, Jerry Manuel, Jonathan Broxton, Joe Torre, Octavio Dotel, Trevor Hoffman, John Axford, Ken Macha, Omar Infante, Martin Prado, Jose Guillen, Chris Denorfia, New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers, Milwaukee Brewers, Atlanta Braves, San Francisco Giants, San Diego Padres
The second base position just got a whole lot beefier, as today three of the positions top guns have been activated from the disabled list. Proud owners of Dustin Pedroia, Chase Utley and Martin Prado have been forced to plug holes with stragglers like Adam Kennedy and Blake DeWitt. Now is your time to rejoice.
Dustin Pedroia returns to the Red Sox after breaking his left foot nearly two months ago on June 26th. In his stead, Bill Hall received the majority of starts at 2B, with Eric Patterson and Jed Lowrie also seeing action. Hall hit 12 homers after Pedroia went down, providing a decent clutch for fantasy owners. Hall will likely get significant starts in CF with Jacoby Ellsbury heading back to the DL after more pain in his slow healing fractured ribs. While Pedroia might not be 100% game ready, he is still a must start in all leagues. But be wary, he does tend to run in red-hot and ice-cold streaks. A slow start is a realistic expectation while he shakes off the rust. He was hitting .292 with 12 HR and 41 RBI prior to the injury, and had raised his average .38 points in June (from .254).
Right thumb surgery has sidelined Chase Utley since June 29th. It had long been speculated that Utley was struggling with the thumb, forcing him to make adjustments to his swing. That could very well be the reason for his average production in the season's first three months. His .277, 11 HR, 37 RBI stat line looks solid for most second baseman, but for Utley those figures are a disappointment. If Utley is pain free, expect a big final push from him once he settles in. His stroke is the epitome of 'simple' and it shouldn't take him long to rediscover it. Placido Polanco will now shift back to third base full time, and Wilson Valdez will hit the bench. The 32-year-old Valdez did a more than admirable job being thrust into regular action, but was never a fantasy option.
A career utility man, Martin Prado's fractured finger might have come at an ideal time (well, no injury is ideal). His batting average had plummeted .22 points from .337 to .315 in the month of July suggesting he needed a breather. Maybe sitting on the sidelines for a short while and re-energizing his body will be a positive in the long run. Unlike his 2B compatriots, he's only been out since July 31st and could find his groove in a flash. All-star selection Omar Infante continued to rake in his absence putting up seven multi-hit games thus far in August. Infante possesses position eligibility all over the diamond, and should continue to see regular AB's at third base with Chipper Jones on the shelf for the year. Once again, Troy Glaus could be the big loser.
In other injury news, Charlie Manuel characterized first baseman Ryan Howard's chances of returning to the lineup before Friday as "slim". Howard has been out since August 2nd with sprained ligaments in his ankle. He's eligible to come off the DL today, but that's obviously not happening. How exactly the Phillies plan to handle his rehabilitation remains unclear. Patience is the key my fantasy brethren, patience. Meanwhile, Mike Sweeney will continue to get the bulk of starts at 1B and is a realistic option in NL-only leagues until big #6 returns.
Written by Adam Ganeles exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Look for Adam's weekly insight into Major & Minor League Ball.
Who do you think will have the strongest return, Pedroia, Utley or Prado? Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on twitter @TheFantasyFix
Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, Fantasy Sports Blog, Return from Injury, Dustin Pedroia, Chase Utley, Martin Prado, Jacoby Ellsbury, Bill Hall, Eric Patterson, Jed Lowrie, Adam Kennedy, Blake DeWitt, Placido Polanco, Wilson Valdez, Omar Infante, Chipper Jones, Troy Glaus, Ryan Howard, Jerry Manuel, Mike Sweeney, Boston Red Sox, Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves
The most common representation of a players production is their slash line which consists of Batting Average, Slugging Percentage, and On-Base Percentage. Generally, we look at the players Slugging Percentage as a measure of their ability to get extra base hits and drive in runs. But the formula for Slugging Percentage uses singles, and what kind of power measure includes singles? Any MLB player can slap a ball down for a single from time to time. We want extra base hits because that's what drives in runs and produces the stats that are near and dear to us.
SABR recognized this and created a complementary stat to Slugging Percentage which did not account for singles. The formula they came up with was:
ISO = (2B + 2*3B + 3*HR)/AB
For all of you math nerds out there who passed Algebra II... you may notice that the formula for ISO is Slugging percentage minus Batting Average. The best power hitters in the game will have an ISO around .300 and anyone with an ISO over .200 is hitting for power at a good clip. An ISO below .200 indicates that a vast majority of the players hits are not going for extra bases.
When looking at the league leaders in ISO we find a who's who of the big bats in baseball. This year, its no surprise that Jose Batista is lapping the field with a .336 ISO. Trailing Batista is Adam Dunn at .300 and Miguel Cabrera at .290. This isn't very surprising and isn't very helpful, but that's because we're looking at the league leaders. We need to dig a little deeper and find some interesting players.
For example, tied with Ryan Howard and Mark Teixeira with a .236 ISO is... Colby Rasmus. Now we've known that Rasmus can hit for power, but it's surprising that he hits at a comparable rate as Howard and Teixeira? If you talk to Fantasy "Experts", they might throw Rasmus' name around in potential 20/20 guys, but it is becoming more and more evident that Rasmus is going to have the power to hit 30 and even 40 Home Runs. Rasmus just turned 24 this month and only has 19 Home Runs this year, but going into next year, make a note that he has tremendous upside power.
On the flip side of ISO, take a look at Jorge Cantu. He slots into the middle line-up because he's supposed to have a big bat. If you were standing next to him, you'd expect him to be a power hitter (he looks the part). But if you take a look at his ISO, and talk to his owners, he just doesn't have the power you think he does. He's posting a .138 ISO this year and a career .173 ISO. Sure he can drive in some runs and have nice stretches like he did this spring, but Cantu doesn't hit for as much power as advertised. Even in 2008 when he hit 28 HR and drove in 95, he still only posted a .204 ISO.
In the end, the stat is the end all/be all. There is always room for argument. But when you're searching for value out there, ISO is a good reason to bump a player up or knock them down a bit. Someone like Rasmus has more value than his standard stats may suggest and that's what we're looking for when evaluating fantasy value... a little stat like ISO could direct you towards a championship.
Written by James Weston for theFantasyFix.com. When James isn't spittin' statistics down on paper he's hacking away at Fantasy apps at http://valuetownfantasy.com You can also find him on Twitter @TheRealJamesA
Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, Fantasy Sports Blog, ISO, Slugging Percentage, Adam Dunn, Colby Rasmus, Jose Bautista, Mark Teixeira, Ryan Howard, Miguel Cabrera
David Murphy | Texas Rangers | 12.8% : Over the last three years Murphy has hit .417 with 3HRs 10RBI in only 36 at-bats at Camden Yards, one of the parks he’ll see this week. Against the other team he faces this week, Tampa Bay, Murphy has hit .345 with 8 of his 19 hits for extra-bases. His current hot streak should help propel him into a strong upcoming week.
Pedro Alvarez | Pittsburgh Pirates | 25% : The ever increasingly hot rookie is poised for a big week. All week long he will have the benefit of home field where he’s hitting .287 with a .352 OBP. Nine of his ten HRs have been hit at home, and he hits 100 points higher at home as well. His OPS is a whopping 422 points higher at home!
Mike Stanton | Florida Marlins | 39.2% : The upcoming away series at Houston should be great for Stanton owners. He has hit 140 points higher on the road (.327 avg. .398 OBP 1.081OPS away!!!). Those stats and his current hot streak and the poor performance of the Pittsburgh pitching staff should equate to a good week for Stanton.
Brett Gardner
Sit ‘Em
Ike Davis | New York Mets | 28.1% : Davis has been cold of late and this upcoming week shouldn’t warrant you taking any chances on this Met. Both of his games this week come away from Citi Field. On the road Davis is hitting .223 with a .288 OBP. Further dowsing the fire is his .227 avg. since the All-Star break. Leave him on the waiver wire where he belongs.
Brett Gardner | New York Yankees | 99.7% : Gardner has been horrid since the All-Star break. He’s hitting .174 with a .296 OBP in the 69 at-bats since. Adding to his problems is his combined stats against the Tigers and Mariners, next week’s opponents. He’s hitting a combined .219 and going two for three in steals in 32 at-bats against those teams. Hitting 15 points higher at home might help him out, but don’t count on it.
Brett Anderson
Two-Start Pitchers To Use
Jonathon Niese | New York Mets | 15.5% : The two teams he faces in the upcoming week have very limited at-bats against him and are batting .067 against him in this limited sample. The main reason for Niese’s strong upcoming week is both Houston and Pittsburgh’s stats against left-handed pitching. Houston is the fourth-worst team in the NL against lefties (.250 avg., .306 OBP) and Pittsburgh is the second-worst hitting team against lefties in all of baseball (.244 avg., .312 OBP). Look for Niese to keep his WHIP low and hopefully score some wins for the reeling Mets.
Brett Anderson | Oakland A’s | 81% : Next week Anderson faces a few teams that have some pop in there lineup. Don’t be timid though, every major power threat on both the Blue Jays and Rays is a right-handed batter. His career mark against righties is .239, and this year he has continued to lower it by keeping them to a .208 avg. Two more facts will help keep the balls in the park against Anderson. He has one of the best ground to fly-ball ratios in the majors this year (1.34) and both games will be at home in the Coliseum, the third-worst park for homeruns in the majors.
Jon Garland
Two-Start Pitchers To Avoid
Jon Garland | San Diego Padres | 55.1% : Garland’s career numbers at Wrigley exhibit a 5.50 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP. Mix that with his numbers this year away from spacious PETCO Park (4.52 ERA and a .267 BAA) and you have a recipe for a benching.
Rich Harden | Texas Rangers | 39.4% : Those of you hoping for a turnaround in the oft-injured Harden should keep hoping for a new week. His career numbers against the Rays are bleak: 32 innings of 5.01 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. Considering both of his starts are away this upcoming week it’s also advised to take note of his ERA outside of the Ballpark in Arlington this year (6.40 ERA and 11 HRs in only 45 innings), ironic for being such a hitter-friendly park.
Hind Sight
Here we take a look at last week’s decisions and whether they might have paid off or not. All hind sight stats are through the end of games on Friday, August 13th.
Start ‘Em:
Bill Hall | Boston Red Sox | : .235 avg. .250 OBP 2 Runs 2 HRs 4 RBI. The batting average isn’t stellar but if you picked him up for the power and RBI production then you have reaped the benefits so far.
Chris Johnson | Houston Astros | : .429 avg. .467 OBP 2 Runs 4 RBI. Chris Johnson continues to stay hot. With trade deadlines approaching, now is a great time to get him if he’s still available in your league.
Jon Jay | St. Louis Cardinals | : .333 avg. .368 OBP 3 Runs 1 RBI. So far it has been a great decision if you did pickup/start Jay. The guy can rake and even though he can’t help in every category, he’s an asset to the one’s he can help.
Sit ‘Em:
Jack Cust | Oakland A’s | : .333 avg. 5Ks in 12 ABs. This is a small sample size through the week so far, yet the four strikeouts is a lot in only seven at-bats. Overall, this was a so-so sit, better if your league has a strikeout category for hitters.
Jay Bruce | Cincinnati Reds | : .333 avg. in 9 ABs with 1 HR 3 RBI . Of course he hits one out right before I submit this article. Thanks for making me look bad.
Pitchers To Use:
Max Scherzer | Detroit Tigers |: 7IP 4H 1ER 4BB 2K
Ervin Santana | Los Angeles Angels |: 6.1P 6H 3ER 1BB 3K
Edwin Jackson | Chicago White Sox |: 6IP 6H 1ER 1BB 7K
All Statistical Information was obtained through ESPN.com
Written exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com by James Bryce. James is a Grad student at UCSD and is currently in his 13th year of fantasy sports.
Agree or disagree with James? Want to make a suggestions? Leave a comment at the top or respond to us on Twitter! Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, Week 20, Forecast, Two-Start Pitchers, Sit 'em, Start 'em, James Bryce, MLB, David Murphy, Pedro Alvarez, Mike Stanton, Ike Davis, Brett Gardner, Jon Niese, Brett Anderson, Jon Garland, Rich Harden
1- Ray Rice (BAL) - Without a doubt, the best RB outside of the Big 3 is Ray Ray. In fact, he may have a better year than any of the Big 3. He’s got a better overall offense than Chris Johnson or Maurice Jones Drew with the addition of Anquan Boldin. The only thing that may hurt him will be the use of Willis McGahee or Le'Ron McClain near the end zone. Either way, Ray Ray is going to put up big numbers and be a fantasy stud. Especially in PPR leagues where he can gain points catching the ball out of the back field.
2. Michael Turner (ATL) - If you’re drafting late in the first round, Mike Turner may be your blessing. Look for Mike to bounce back and be that “burner” again, despite an injury plagued 2009/10 season. Atlanta has a nice playoff schedule with games in Carolina and Seattle that would look to feature Turner’s running attack. They also have a game versus New Orleans in which if ATL wants to win, they’ll have to keep the ball on the ground and out of Brees’s hands. I look for “The Burner” to be the Comeback Player of the Year and post 300+carries, 1500+yards, 10+TD’s which all may mean for your fantasy team… CHAMPIONSHIP.
Cedric Benson
3. Cedric Benson (CIN) - Ochocinco may have been doing a dance when Cincinnati signed Terrell Owens, but I guarantee that Benson was the choreographer. Cedric had a nice 2009/10 season, but look for him to get more red zone opportunities with the addition of TO. Carson Palmer needs to live up to the hype he gained before his knee injury and shake off the elbow injury. This should be a year in which the Bengals offense makes it easier for their great defense. With no other RB behind Benson, look for him to post 300+ carries and be your fantasy stud.
4. Steven Jackson (StL) – Jackson is an interesting player to watch. He has all the tools you want in a running back. He can run, catch, has size and speed, but plays in one of the worst offenses in the league. If the addition of Sam Bradford at the quarterback position pans out, then SJax is primed to have a great fantasy year. He is one of the few every down RB’s in the league without an RB committee around him. After coming off back surgery, will he be able to handle the load? That’s the big question for him and his fantasy owners. **Buyer Beware**
Frank Gore
5. Frank Gore (SF) – Gore has been San Francisco’s lone bright spot in their offense for the past four years. He’s one of the few every down RB’s with no back-up threat. If Alex Smith can play up to his first round pick selection, then Gore may have a shot at fantasy stardom. Frank typically has a great first half of the year, but then due to injuries, slumps in the second half. If he can stay healthy, he may be a steal in the late first or second round for your fantasy squad.
6. Rashard Mendenhall (PIT) – Again, playing without a RB committee is a hard thing to find in the NFL now, so Mendenhall is a great option for fantasy owners. PIT is looking to return to their roots by being a smash-mouth, run-defense oriented team again, especially with Ben Roethlisberger on the shelf for at least four to six games. Look for Rashard to have a ton of carries and catches out of the backfield in the first couple of weeks. Mendenhall may get your team off to the start it needs to make the playoffs.
Jamaal Charles
7. Jamaal Charles (KC) – Charles had a big second half last year. He was able to post huge numbers with everything from running the rock, catching out of the backfield and kick returns. If your league is a PPR league, then JC may be a great pickup in that KC will most likely be down big pts in the 2nd half of games and rely heavily on the pass to get them back in the game. I look for JC to post 40-60 catches this year or better and be a great pick me up for your cause.
8. DeAngelo Williams (CAR) – Williams is a great low second round pick up. The only problem for owners is the competition from Jonathan Stewart. If the NFL magically made their stats into one, then we would have the number one pick year in and year out. Baring injury, Williams has received more carries and is more versatile catching the ball, but Stewart has been the hammer. Stewart has been getting more and more carries late in the year to preserve Williams, so if they’re in the playoff hunt DeAngelo’s stock will drop. If your staring Williams in the face, hopefully you’ve taken a better QB already. **Buyer Beware** He’s either gonna give you a big year or be the reason you’re out of the playoffs.
Ryan Grant
9. Ryan Grant (GB) – The only thing good about Grant is that he plays for a high powered offense and doesn’t have much competition from Brandon Jackson. He seems to only play big in the playoffs (fantasy & NFL). Other than that, he tends go into hibernation because his regular season fantasy numbers don’t match him being the every down back for a great offense. Aaron Rodgers will continue to have a big year, but if Green Bay wants to contend for a championship Grant has to be a bigger part of their offense.
10. Beanie Wells (ARZ) – Wells is now the man in the desert. Tim Hightower may steal some goal line scores, but look for Beanie to carry the load. Now without Kurt Warner, look for Arizona to feature a more running back friendly offense… if they want to win the NFC West again.
Outside looking in-
Shonn Greene (NYJ) – With Ladainian Tomlinson looking to steal carries Greene's stock falls and only time will tell how much. Don't get too worried though, Greene is a monster who will put up great numbers by season's end.
Knowshon Moreno (DEN) – Due to the losses of superstars in Denver, Knowshon will have to carry the load. Barring any injuries, look for him to get points from everywhere out of the backfield.
Ryan Mathews (SD) – This rookie comes in with great hype. Realistically, he plays in a pass first offense with another RB making a ton of money. I look for him to have some good games, but his overall season to be average or just a little bit above. I wouldn’t make him your first RB, but may be a good situational second. Check his matchups and he may even be great trade bait for you to get your team over the hump and into your fantasy playoffs.
Written by Mike Rodriguez exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. You can email him: Mike(at)TheFantasyFix(dot)com or Follow him on the Twitter account he doesn't use: @FantasyFix_Mike
Agree or disagree with Mike's rankings? Let us know. Leave a comment at the top right of the post or hit us up on twitter @TheFantasyFix
Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Advice, 2010, NFL, Running Backs, RB, Ray Rice, Michael Turner, Cedric Benson, Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, Rashard Mendenhall, Jamaal Charles, DeAngelo Williams, Ryan Grant, Chris "Beanie" Wells, Shonn Green, Knowshon Moreno, Ryan Mathews
Every season, we under or overvalue players in the offseason; it’s the nature of the beast. Whether it is personnel changes around them, scheme changes, or injury concerns, something jumps out and makes us either love or hate a player before the season even begins. Earlier this week, we looked at a few of the quarterbacks who I believe are undervalued and overvalued, based on their Average Draft Position (ADP). Today, we’ll consider some running backs who’s ADP doesn’t quite match their value.
(Note that just because I think someone is overrated, doesn’t mean I don’t think they will perform this season. I just think the cost of drafting them is too high. Likewise, if someone is underrated, it doesn’t mean they will be the top fantasy scorer at their position, just that they will outperform their draft position.)
UNDERRATED Ricky Williams (ADP 69, RB 30) Despite putting up scoring more fantasy points than Ryan Grant (ADP 21) and Jonathan Stewart (ADP 31) in 2009, Williams is again going significantly lower than them in 2010 drafts. Ricky may be on wrong side of thirty (he turned 33 in May) and competing with Ronnie Brown for touches, but the curious case of Ricky Williams is not one to be ignored. He took off, essentially, two full seasons from 2006-2007, and by all accounts takes tremendous care of himself. Last year’s stats may be atypical, and I don’t expect him to match that production this season, but he will certainly outpace his draft position. As the 30th running back off the board, he is being drafted as a flex player, but should give mid-level RB2 stats with the occasional spikes when Brown misses a few games. Williams offers a great return on investment with a very reasonable floor.
OVERRATED Rashard Mendenhall (ADP 11, RB 8) Mendenhall’s road to fantasy stardom is not paved as finely as some would have you believe. His quarterback is suspended for the first 4-6 games, his right tackle is out for the season with a torn Achilles tendon, his pets’ heads are falling off. OK, the last one isn’t true (as far as I know), but the point remains that the Steelers are having a rough offseason. Add to that, Mendenhall has consistently had problems with short yardage and goal line situations, and his price tag this early seems inflated. Although rookie Jonathan Dwyer appears to have drawn the ire of the coaching staff, Mendenhall still doesn’t seem likely to fill the role of the team’s goal line back. Ultimately he’s a mid to upper-level RB2 with a RB1 price tag.
UNDERRATED Thomas Jones (ADP 90, RB 37) Jones is another guy on the wrong side of thirty (he turns 32 next week) who, like Ricky Williams, is playing a few years below his age. It wasn’t until his fifth year in the NFL that he surpasses 140 carries in a season. Now in Kansas City, Jones will likely split carries 50-50 with Jamaal Charles, which is a good thing for Jones’ owners. Limiting his touches will take an appreciable toll on his yardage totals, but it should allow him to make it through the entire season healthy and fresh. Head coach, Todd Haley, seems high on Jones, and has referred to him as a “beast.” He won’t be the 1400 yard, 14 TD he was in 2009, but he is certainly in a position to vulture enough goal line looks to stay fantasy relevant. Drafted 37th among running backs, he should finish the season in the top 20-25 at his position, making him a solid RB2.
UNDERRATED Justin Forsett (ADP 113, RB 42) Forsett is getting sleeper hype from all angles this offseason, and I’m jumping right on the bandwagon. Despite an underwhelming offensive line and a number three spot on the depth chart, Forsett’s chances for a breakout year look promising. He was the most consistently productive back in Seattle last season, averaging 5.4 yards per carry (YPC). Despite his small stature, a heavier workload doesn’t appear to be a problem for Forsett, whose YPC increased to 6.3 in games where he logged at least 10 carries. His excellent pass-catching skills only add to his value, solidifying him as an excellent flex with upside for RB2 production.
OVERRATED Ryan Mathews (ADP 17, RB 11) I get the hype, I really do. He’s a big, strong back who dominated the college ranks (the WAC isn’t the SEC, but it’s also not high school) who looks to get the bulk of the carries for an offensive juggernaut in the San Diego Chargers, stepping into the vacated shoes of future Hall of Famer LaDainian Tomlinson. He’ll also be playing under Norv Turner, who somehow turned Lamont Jordan into a 1,000 yard back. Ryan Mathews will have a solid rookie campaign, but I’m not so sure he’ll take over like some expect. Because of that, he is a risk I am not willing to take this early in the draft. The mid-late rounds are the time to roll the dice; this early in the draft is all about reliability and minimizing risk. I’d love to hit a homerun in the first two rounds, but my primarily goal is not to miss. In the new NFL, with dynamic aerial offenses becoming the standard, I am not investing a second round pick in an unproven rookie when studs like Reggie Wayne (ADP 17) and Miles Austin (ADP 21) are still on the board. Note for PPR leagues: Mathews had 19 total receptions in 3 seasons at Fresno State, so don’t be surprised to see him replaced by Darren Sproles on passing downs.
OVERRATED C.J. Spiller (ADP 61, RB 27) He’s a human highlight reel with absurd speed and great ability in space. He reminds me a lot of Reggie Bush, which is both a compliment and a disclaimer. Spiller has the same physical build as Bush, largely the same skill set and a lot of the same limitations to his game. Also like Bush, Spiller will be second on the depth chart behind an undrafted running back whose skills are more suited to being an every-down back. The Bills will move him all over the field to try and get him the ball, and he’ll take on at least some return duties. But Buffalo’s offense is one of the worst in the league, which will limit Spiller’s ability to reach the endzone on a regular basis. Unless you play in a points-per-reception (PPR) league where touchdowns are devalued, Spiller isn’t worth the price. The man ahead of him on the depth chart, Fred Jackson (ADP 76) is going two rounds later, and is a much better value.
Written by Chris Sheehan exclusively for the www.thefantasyfix.com. Chris is an avid football fan and has been playing fantasy football for over ten years. Check back for more great articles from him weekly.
Do you agree/disagree that these running backs are over or underrated? Which other players do you feel fit into this category? Leave us a comment or reply to us on Twitter @TheFantasyFix
Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Sports Blog, Fantasy Football Advice, Fantasy Football, NFL, ADP, Draft, Ricky Williams, Thomas Jones, Justin Forsett, Rashard Mendenhall, Ryan Matthews, C.J. Spiller, Reggie Bush, Fred Jackson, LaDainian Tomlinson, LaMont Jordan, Reggie Wayne, Miles Austin, Darren Sproles, Norv Turner, Johnathan Dwyer, Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs, Seattle Seahawks, Pittsburgh Steelers, San Diego Chargers, Buffalo Bills, Dallas Cowboys, Indianapolis Colts, Denver Broncos
Welcome back fantasy players, to another edition of The NL Wire. You may recognize a few of this week’s players as top minor league prospects. Meanwhile, a few others you may recognize as usual suspects on the free agent wire. Either way, consider all of them as possible worthy fantasy contributors to your squad and jump on them before the competition does.
Mike Minor, SP – ATL – Owned in 6% of CBS leagues
Minor was recently promoted from the minors to take the rotation spot of another one of Atlanta’s young guns – Kris Medlen. The former first round, seventh overall pick in 2009, has realized his childhood dream of playing for the team he followed throughout his youth.
In his first start against the Astros, he had the following line: 6 IP/5 H/3 ER/1 BB/5 K and did not factor into the decision. In his brief minor league career (four starts in ’09 and 21 in ’10) Minor has shown the Braves’ brass enough to get the nod. In his starts this year, combined between AAA-Gwinnett and AA-Mississippi, Minor is only 6-7 but has put up gaudy numbers otherwise – K:BB ratio of 146:44, 3.44 ERA/1.15 WHIP and 10.9 K’s/9 innings.
The downside to his numbers is that he’s already logged 120 innings on the season and is sure to receive the so-called “rookie pitcher treatment” in the final two months. In fact, with an off day this week, the Braves are already pushing his next start to Tuesday. On the bright side, he will be on track for two starts in Week 20.
Even though Minor lacks experience (which hasn’t stopped Stephen Strasburg, Mike Leake and Drew Storen, his fellow 2009 first round draft picks), he possesses the tools to be a successful starter for Atlanta. He features a fastball topping out in the mid 90’s and a quality slider with bite.
Minor is worth a look in deeper mixed leagues, and most certainly in all keeper leagues.
Carlos Ruiz, C – PHI – Owned in 34% of CBS leagues
To be perfectly honest, I had to ask myself a number of times whether this selection was worthy of even mentioning. Ruiz, at age 31, is hardly an unknown commodity or rising star in baseball. But, he’s being added to fantasy leagues a dizzying rate, jumping from 34% ownership this week to 71% next week. This will rank him as the number one added player in all of CBS leagues (if you can believe that). It speaks more to the lack of decent options at the ultra-slim catching position than anything else. At the same time, since Ruiz was activated from the DL right after the All-Star break, he’s been on a tear. In 24 games, he’s batting .313 (25 hits) with three HR and 14 RBI and has an OPS of .858. These numbers are well above his career stats considering Ruiz is a lifetime .254 hitter with an OPS of .733.
Ruiz is worthy of a roster spot while he’s hot. Once his bat starts to cool, be prepared to jump off the Ruiz Express.
Daniel Hudson, SP ARI – Owned in 36% of CBS leagues
The market for Arizona starting pitchers has been slow to heat up and understandably so. In fact, no Diamondbacks pitcher is owned in more than 49% of CBS fantasy leagues. Last week, I wrote about Barry Enright, one of the other young promising pitchers for the D-backs.
This week, the spotlight is on Hudson, who was acquired in the July 31st trade deadline from the White Sox in exchange for Edwin Jackson. Hudson, a fifth round pick of Chicago in 2008, quickly swept through four levels of their minor league affiliates. He posted a 14-5 combined record with a 2.32 ERA and 166 K in 147 innings.
Hudson got his first taste of the majors in ’09 with three appearances out of the bullpen before taking over for Gavin Floyd in the rotation after Floyd was injured. In three starts for the D-backs since the trade (all wins), he has gone 22 2/3 innings, allowing only four earned runs on 13 hits with 17 strikeouts to only four walks issued.
With a combined 124 IP on the season thus far, Hudson is also approaching the rookie limit most teams impose on their young starting pitchers. Even still, he is an attractive option as the D-backs will surely want to see what he can do the remainder of the season. Pick him up in NL-only leagues, deeper mixed leagues and all keeper leagues.
Honorable Mention:
Johnny Venters, RP – ATL – Owned in 8% of CBS leagues
Has done a spectacular job all season coming out of the ‘pen for ATL. In 57 2/3 innings he has posted four wins plus a save. Throw in 61 K and 1.09 ERA/1.00 WHIP and this makes him a worthy addition in deeper leagues.
Dexter Fowler, CF – COL – Owned in 21% of CBS leagues
Fowler is off to a sizzling start in August - .333 BA/.907 OPS, after a solid month in July - .287 BA/.921 OPS and 25 runs in 26 games plus five SB and 11 RBI. He’s producing across the board.
Pat Burrell, OF – SF – Owned in 9% of CBS leagues
Pat “The Bat” has resurfaced in San Francisco as an everyday player. Since the trade from TB - .282 BA/8 HR/23 RBI and a 1.102 OPS (what??). He’s become a solid contributor.
*Written by Rosti Satanovsky exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. You can follow him on Facebook or Twitter@TheSportsFariah
Who are your waiver wire gems of the week? Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on Twitter@TheFantasyFix
Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, Fantasy Sports Blog, The NL Wire, Waiver Wire, Mike Minor, Kris Medlen, Stephen Strasburg, Mike Leake, Drew Storen, Carlos Ruiz, Daniel Hudson, Edwin Jackson, Gavin Floyd, Johnny Venters, Dexter Fowler, Pat Burrell, Atlanta Braves, Washington Nationals, Cincinnati Reds, Philadelphia Phillies, Arizona Diamondbacks, Chicago White Sox, Colorado Rockies, San Francisco Giants
In our last piece, we looked at late round prospects that are still under the radar, but who may be poised for breakout seasons. But the bottom of the draft is not the only place to find a great deal. Getting a player with 3rd round value in the 4th-5th round is a coup in itself (it’s the little things, isn’t it?). Every season, we under or overvalue players in the offseason; it’s the nature of the beast. Whether it is personnel changes around them, scheme changes, or injury concerns, something jumps out and makes us either love or hate a player before the season even begins. Over the next two weeks, I will take a look at a few players at each position who I believe are undervalued and overvalued, based on their Average Draft Position (ADP).
Note that just because I think someone is overrated, doesn’t mean I don’t think they will perform this season. I just think the cost of drafting them is too high. Likewise, if someone is underrated, it doesn’t mean they will be the top fantasy scorer at their position, just that they will outperform their draft position.
Let us begin with the quarterbacks…
Donovan McNabb
UNDERRATED
Donovan McNabb (ADP 104)
McNabb was a top 12 QB last year despite missing 2 games. Considering his replacement, Kevin Kolb, threw for 700+ yards and 4 TDs in his stead (vs NO, vs KAN), I would argue that McNabb would’ve been a top 8 QB had he played those games. Presumably, his lower draft position (25 spots behind Kolb, now the starter in Philly) is out of concern for his supporting cast. But McNabb has done more with less before, and he still remains a viable fantasy starter. And his career average 2.5 rushing TDs per season, should help to buoy his value, even if his legs aren’t what they once were. Currently the 14th QB off the board, behind the (retired?) Brett Favre, McNabb will deliver QB1 stats at a QB2 price.
Carson Palmer (ADP 107)
Palmer threw the ball fewer times in 2009 than in any other full season he has played. It appears Cedric Benson will avoid a suspension. These signs alone might indicate that Palmer’s ADP is about right and that the Bengals will continue with a smash-mouth style that limits Palmer’s ceiling. But a pair of season-ending beatdowns suffered at the hands of the Jets underscored the Bengals’ need to develop a downfield passing threat. They attempted to do so by drafting Jermaine Gresham, a pass-catching tight end out of Oklahoma, and signed Antonio Bryant and Terrell Owens. While they will still try to pound the ball on the ground early and often, the Bengals didn’t add these new weapons to play decoy for Benson. Expect the running game to setup the downfield play-action to maximize Palmer’s yards-per-attempt. A return to 2005-2006 form (3900+ yds, 30 TDs, 12.5 INTs avg.) may not be in order, but a top 10 finish among QBs shouldn’t surprise anyone.
Chad Henne (ADP 132)
I’m not going to extrapolate the pass attempts he got at the end of last season (40+ in 3 of the last 5 games) into a full season and predict record-breaking campaign. However, you may have heard that the Dolphins traded for Brandon Marshall this offseason. That’s the same Brandon Marshall who caught 101 balls for 1120 yards and 10 touchdowns last season from Kyle Orton. Say what you will about Henne but his arm is stronger than Orton’s, and the difference in talent between Marshall and Ted Ginn Jr., who Miami traded to San Francisco, is more a chasm than a gap. With defenses honing in on Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown in the backfield, there should be plenty of room for Henne to find Marshall’s big body, especially in the red zone. He’s not going to lead the league in passing, nor will he revolutionize the position, but he’s a bargain as a QB2 with potential to leapfrog into a low-end QB1. He’s being drafted amidst Defenses, so the cost is negligible.
OVERRATED
Eli Manning (ADP 94)
Many will point to New York’s hot start in 2009 before Brandon Jacobs inability to stay healthy as reason to grab this gunslinger in the middle rounds. I’ll argue that those are reasons to avoid Eli in 2010. First, the “hot start.” More than one-third of Manning’s TDs (10 of 27) came in the first 5 games of the season - against Washington, Dallas, Tampa, Kansas City and Oakland. With the exception of Dallas (a wildly inconsistent team in their own right), these teams were considered a “gimme” for most opponents. Once the injury bug bit the Giants’ backfield, the team’s offense was thrown into disarray. While some people would argue that highlights just how well Manning performed, I’m not so easily convinced. With neither Jacobs nor Ahmad Bradshaw healthy enough to shoulder the load, the Giants were forced to rely on Eli’s arm. This year, with a renewed dedication to the defensive side of the ball, we could see a return to a ball-control offense relying on a healthy dose of Jacobs and Bradshaw, which will cap Eli’s ceiling. He’s a decent low-end QB1, but with other options available deeper in the draft, I’d prefer to invest in a Thomas Jones (ADP 90) or Montario Hardesty (ADP 88) in this spot and grab someone with more upside later.
Jay Cutler (ADP 71)
Everything you’ve heard about the Mike Martz offense is true: the playbook is a 12-volume tome that you need a PhD to fully understand, the TEs are persona non-grata, and the quarterback will throw the ball until his arm falls off. The bazooka-armed Cutler may seem like a great fit for a high volume offense, and there is virtually no chance he doesn’t throw for 4,000 yards in 2010. But unless you’re in a league that doesn’t penalize for turnovers, the monster yardage totals will be, largely, offset by 20+ interceptions. And with an offensive line that can be generously described as tenuous, expect Cutler to take a beating on a weekly basis. Cutler, like Manning, is a decent low-end QB1 (perhaps with a slightly higher ceiling), but is not worth the price. He is currently being drafted just after Ricky Williams (ADP 69) and before Fred Jackson (ADP 76), both of whom I would rather have in the mid-rounds.
Matt Ryan (ADP 80)
The Boston College has made a phenomenal transition to the NFL and, in the process, has saved the Falcons franchise from oblivion after the Michael Vick debacle. In two seasons, he has led his team to the playoffs and to the franchise’s first ever back-to-back winning seasons. Unfortunately, none of that counts in our stat-based fantasy football world. The Falcons are a run-first team who will rely on Michael Turner to shoulder the load. Matt Ryan is a solid backup, but is being drafted as a starter. Use this mid-round pick to stock up at WR or RB, and grab a more fantasy-friendly QB, such as those listed above, later in the draft.
*Average Draft Picks taken from mockdraftcentral.com.
Written by Chris Sheehan exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Chris is an avid football fan and has been playing fantasy football for over ten years. Check back for more great articles from him weekly.
Do you agree/disagree that these quarterbacks are over or underrated? Which other players do you feel fit into this category? Leave us a comment or reply to us on Twitter @TheFantasyFix
Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Sports Blog, Fantasy Football Advice, Fantasy Football, NFL, ADP, Draft, Quarterback, Donovan McNabb, Washington Redskins, Chad Henne, Miami Dolphins, Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals, Eli Manning, New York Giants, Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons, Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears
