2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Advice & Analysis
Every season, we under or overvalue players in the offseason; it’s the nature of the beast. Whether it is personnel changes around them, scheme changes, or injury concerns, something jumps out and makes us either love or hate a player before the season even begins. Earlier this week, we looked at a few of the quarterbacks who I believe are undervalued and overvalued, based on their Average Draft Position (ADP). Today, we’ll consider some running backs who’s ADP doesn’t quite match their value. (Note that just because I think someone is overrated, doesn’t mean I don’t think they will perform this season. I just think the cost of drafting them is too high. Likewise, if someone is underrated, it doesn’t mean they will be the top fantasy scorer at their position, just that they will outperform their draft position.)  UNDERRATED Ricky Williams (ADP 69, RB 30) Despite putting up scoring more fantasy points than Ryan Grant (ADP 21) and Jonathan Stewart (ADP 31) in 2009, Williams is again going significantly lower than them in 2010 drafts. Ricky may be on wrong side of thirty (he turned 33 in May) and competing with Ronnie Brown for touches, but the curious case of Ricky Williams is not one to be ignored. He took off, essentially, two full seasons from 2006-2007, and by all accounts takes tremendous care of himself. Last year’s stats may be atypical, and I don’t expect him to match that production this season, but he will certainly outpace his draft position. As the 30th running back off the board, he is being drafted as a flex player, but should give mid-level RB2 stats with the occasional spikes when Brown misses a few games. Williams offers a great return on investment with a very reasonable floor.  OVERRATED Rashard Mendenhall (ADP 11, RB 8) Mendenhall’s road to fantasy stardom is not paved as finely as some would have you believe. His quarterback is suspended for the first 4-6 games, his right tackle is out for the season with a torn Achilles tendon, his pets’ heads are falling off. OK, the last one isn’t true (as far as I know), but the point remains that the Steelers are having a rough offseason. Add to that, Mendenhall has consistently had problems with short yardage and goal line situations, and his price tag this early seems inflated. Although rookie Jonathan Dwyer appears to have drawn the ire of the coaching staff, Mendenhall still doesn’t seem likely to fill the role of the team’s goal line back. Ultimately he’s a mid to upper-level RB2 with a RB1 price tag.  UNDERRATED Thomas Jones (ADP 90, RB 37) Jones is another guy on the wrong side of thirty (he turns 32 next week) who, like Ricky Williams, is playing a few years below his age. It wasn’t until his fifth year in the NFL that he surpasses 140 carries in a season. Now in Kansas City, Jones will likely split carries 50-50 with Jamaal Charles, which is a good thing for Jones’ owners. Limiting his touches will take an appreciable toll on his yardage totals, but it should allow him to make it through the entire season healthy and fresh. Head coach, Todd Haley, seems high on Jones, and has referred to him as a “beast.” He won’t be the 1400 yard, 14 TD he was in 2009, but he is certainly in a position to vulture enough goal line looks to stay fantasy relevant. Drafted 37th among running backs, he should finish the season in the top 20-25 at his position, making him a solid RB2.  UNDERRATED Justin Forsett (ADP 113, RB 42) Forsett is getting sleeper hype from all angles this offseason, and I’m jumping right on the bandwagon. Despite an underwhelming offensive line and a number three spot on the depth chart, Forsett’s chances for a breakout year look promising. He was the most consistently productive back in Seattle last season, averaging 5.4 yards per carry (YPC). Despite his small stature, a heavier workload doesn’t appear to be a problem for Forsett, whose YPC increased to 6.3 in games where he logged at least 10 carries. His excellent pass-catching skills only add to his value, solidifying him as an excellent flex with upside for RB2 production.  OVERRATED Ryan Mathews (ADP 17, RB 11) I get the hype, I really do. He’s a big, strong back who dominated the college ranks (the WAC isn’t the SEC, but it’s also not high school) who looks to get the bulk of the carries for an offensive juggernaut in the San Diego Chargers, stepping into the vacated shoes of future Hall of Famer LaDainian Tomlinson. He’ll also be playing under Norv Turner, who somehow turned Lamont Jordan into a 1,000 yard back. Ryan Mathews will have a solid rookie campaign, but I’m not so sure he’ll take over like some expect. Because of that, he is a risk I am not willing to take this early in the draft. The mid-late rounds are the time to roll the dice; this early in the draft is all about reliability and minimizing risk. I’d love to hit a homerun in the first two rounds, but my primarily goal is not to miss. In the new NFL, with dynamic aerial offenses becoming the standard, I am not investing a second round pick in an unproven rookie when studs like Reggie Wayne (ADP 17) and Miles Austin (ADP 21) are still on the board. Note for PPR leagues: Mathews had 19 total receptions in 3 seasons at Fresno State, so don’t be surprised to see him replaced by Darren Sproles on passing downs.  OVERRATED C.J. Spiller (ADP 61, RB 27) He’s a human highlight reel with absurd speed and great ability in space. He reminds me a lot of Reggie Bush, which is both a compliment and a disclaimer. Spiller has the same physical build as Bush, largely the same skill set and a lot of the same limitations to his game. Also like Bush, Spiller will be second on the depth chart behind an undrafted running back whose skills are more suited to being an every-down back. The Bills will move him all over the field to try and get him the ball, and he’ll take on at least some return duties. But Buffalo’s offense is one of the worst in the league, which will limit Spiller’s ability to reach the endzone on a regular basis. Unless you play in a points-per-reception (PPR) league where touchdowns are devalued, Spiller isn’t worth the price. The man ahead of him on the depth chart, Fred Jackson (ADP 76) is going two rounds later, and is a much better value. *Average Draft Picks taken from mockdraftcentral.com Written by Chris Sheehan exclusively for the www.thefantasyfix.com. Chris is an avid football fan and has been playing fantasy football for over ten years. Check back for more great articles from him weekly. Do you agree/disagree that these running backs are over or underrated? Which other players do you feel fit into this category? Leave us a comment or reply to us on Twitter @TheFantasyFix Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Sports Blog, Fantasy Football Advice, Fantasy Football, NFL, ADP, Draft, Ricky Williams, Thomas Jones, Justin Forsett, Rashard Mendenhall, Ryan Matthews, C.J. Spiller, Reggie Bush, Fred Jackson, LaDainian Tomlinson, LaMont Jordan, Reggie Wayne, Miles Austin, Darren Sproles, Norv Turner, Johnathan Dwyer, Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs, Seattle Seahawks, Pittsburgh Steelers, San Diego Chargers, Buffalo Bills, Dallas Cowboys, Indianapolis Colts, Denver Broncos 2 Comments In our last piece, we looked at late round prospects that are still under the radar, but who may be poised for breakout seasons. But the bottom of the draft is not the only place to find a great deal. Getting a player with 3rd round value in the 4th-5th round is a coup in itself (it’s the little things, isn’t it?). Every season, we under or overvalue players in the offseason; it’s the nature of the beast. Whether it is personnel changes around them, scheme changes, or injury concerns, something jumps out and makes us either love or hate a player before the season even begins. Over the next two weeks, I will take a look at a few players at each position who I believe are undervalued and overvalued, based on their Average Draft Position (ADP). Note that just because I think someone is overrated, doesn’t mean I don’t think they will perform this season. I just think the cost of drafting them is too high. Likewise, if someone is underrated, it doesn’t mean they will be the top fantasy scorer at their position, just that they will outperform their draft position. Let us begin with the quarterbacks…  Donovan McNabb UNDERRATED Donovan McNabb (ADP 104) McNabb was a top 12 QB last year despite missing 2 games. Considering his replacement, Kevin Kolb, threw for 700+ yards and 4 TDs in his stead (vs NO, vs KAN), I would argue that McNabb would’ve been a top 8 QB had he played those games. Presumably, his lower draft position (25 spots behind Kolb, now the starter in Philly) is out of concern for his supporting cast. But McNabb has done more with less before, and he still remains a viable fantasy starter. And his career average 2.5 rushing TDs per season, should help to buoy his value, even if his legs aren’t what they once were. Currently the 14th QB off the board, behind the (retired?) Brett Favre, McNabb will deliver QB1 stats at a QB2 price. Carson Palmer (ADP 107) Palmer threw the ball fewer times in 2009 than in any other full season he has played. It appears Cedric Benson will avoid a suspension. These signs alone might indicate that Palmer’s ADP is about right and that the Bengals will continue with a smash-mouth style that limits Palmer’s ceiling. But a pair of season-ending beatdowns suffered at the hands of the Jets underscored the Bengals’ need to develop a downfield passing threat. They attempted to do so by drafting Jermaine Gresham, a pass-catching tight end out of Oklahoma, and signed Antonio Bryant and Terrell Owens. While they will still try to pound the ball on the ground early and often, the Bengals didn’t add these new weapons to play decoy for Benson. Expect the running game to setup the downfield play-action to maximize Palmer’s yards-per-attempt. A return to 2005-2006 form (3900+ yds, 30 TDs, 12.5 INTs avg.) may not be in order, but a top 10 finish among QBs shouldn’t surprise anyone. Chad Henne (ADP 132) I’m not going to extrapolate the pass attempts he got at the end of last season (40+ in 3 of the last 5 games) into a full season and predict record-breaking campaign. However, you may have heard that the Dolphins traded for Brandon Marshall this offseason. That’s the same Brandon Marshall who caught 101 balls for 1120 yards and 10 touchdowns last season from Kyle Orton. Say what you will about Henne but his arm is stronger than Orton’s, and the difference in talent between Marshall and Ted Ginn Jr., who Miami traded to San Francisco, is more a chasm than a gap. With defenses honing in on Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown in the backfield, there should be plenty of room for Henne to find Marshall’s big body, especially in the red zone. He’s not going to lead the league in passing, nor will he revolutionize the position, but he’s a bargain as a QB2 with potential to leapfrog into a low-end QB1. He’s being drafted amidst Defenses, so the cost is negligible.  OVERRATED Eli Manning (ADP 94) Many will point to New York’s hot start in 2009 before Brandon Jacobs inability to stay healthy as reason to grab this gunslinger in the middle rounds. I’ll argue that those are reasons to avoid Eli in 2010. First, the “hot start.” More than one-third of Manning’s TDs (10 of 27) came in the first 5 games of the season - against Washington, Dallas, Tampa, Kansas City and Oakland. With the exception of Dallas (a wildly inconsistent team in their own right), these teams were considered a “gimme” for most opponents. Once the injury bug bit the Giants’ backfield, the team’s offense was thrown into disarray. While some people would argue that highlights just how well Manning performed, I’m not so easily convinced. With neither Jacobs nor Ahmad Bradshaw healthy enough to shoulder the load, the Giants were forced to rely on Eli’s arm. This year, with a renewed dedication to the defensive side of the ball, we could see a return to a ball-control offense relying on a healthy dose of Jacobs and Bradshaw, which will cap Eli’s ceiling. He’s a decent low-end QB1, but with other options available deeper in the draft, I’d prefer to invest in a Thomas Jones (ADP 90) or Montario Hardesty (ADP 88) in this spot and grab someone with more upside later. Jay Cutler (ADP 71) Everything you’ve heard about the Mike Martz offense is true: the playbook is a 12-volume tome that you need a PhD to fully understand, the TEs are persona non-grata, and the quarterback will throw the ball until his arm falls off. The bazooka-armed Cutler may seem like a great fit for a high volume offense, and there is virtually no chance he doesn’t throw for 4,000 yards in 2010. But unless you’re in a league that doesn’t penalize for turnovers, the monster yardage totals will be, largely, offset by 20+ interceptions. And with an offensive line that can be generously described as tenuous, expect Cutler to take a beating on a weekly basis. Cutler, like Manning, is a decent low-end QB1 (perhaps with a slightly higher ceiling), but is not worth the price. He is currently being drafted just after Ricky Williams (ADP 69) and before Fred Jackson (ADP 76), both of whom I would rather have in the mid-rounds. Matt Ryan (ADP 80) The Boston College has made a phenomenal transition to the NFL and, in the process, has saved the Falcons franchise from oblivion after the Michael Vick debacle. In two seasons, he has led his team to the playoffs and to the franchise’s first ever back-to-back winning seasons. Unfortunately, none of that counts in our stat-based fantasy football world. The Falcons are a run-first team who will rely on Michael Turner to shoulder the load. Matt Ryan is a solid backup, but is being drafted as a starter. Use this mid-round pick to stock up at WR or RB, and grab a more fantasy-friendly QB, such as those listed above, later in the draft. *Average Draft Picks taken from mockdraftcentral.com. Written by Chris Sheehan exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Chris is an avid football fan and has been playing fantasy football for over ten years. Check back for more great articles from him weekly. Do you agree/disagree that these quarterbacks are over or underrated? Which other players do you feel fit into this category? Leave us a comment or reply to us on Twitter @TheFantasyFix Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Sports Blog, Fantasy Football Advice, Fantasy Football, NFL, ADP, Draft, Quarterback, Donovan McNabb, Washington Redskins, Chad Henne, Miami Dolphins, Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals, Eli Manning, New York Giants, Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons, Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears Fantasy Football's Late Round Fliers 08/01/2010
Conventional wisdom states that you wait until the last two rounds to get your defense and kicker. These positions are historically difficult to predict, and the difference between them is minimal over the course of a season. Waiting until the final rounds allows you to use the rest of your mid-late round picks on some high “upside” players who could potentially develop into solid starters. Well, if some “upside” players is good, more is better. In leagues that do not require that you to fill every position on your roster during the draft, like Yahoo!, I recommend passing on a kicker and defense altogether and picking up additional players who may be on their way to a breakout season. Once the pre-season winds down and Week One gets going, there should be someone on your roster who has been injured, or slipped down the depth chart, and can be dropped for a kicker/defense at the last minute. Think you can’t get anyone of value in the last two rounds? Check out some of the guys who went in the last two rounds of my league the last couple years. 2008 – Vincent Jackson, Brett Favre, Steve Slaton 2009 – Matt Ryan Now, I’m not saying that the guys listed below will all turn into studs, but that’s why they’re still available at this point in the draft. When you’re in the final rounds, you’re not looking for a safe pick; you want high upside players dripping with potential. Resist the temptation to take Mason Crosby or the Bears defense, and instead roll the dice on some of these guys, who have a chance to make a difference in 2010. * Average Draft Picks taken from mockdraftcentral.com  SEASONAL LEAGUES Alex Smith (Average Draft Pick 203) I know he hasn’t proven he can produce consistently and the coaching staff wants to get back to a smashmouth, run-first offense, but let’s look at the facts. Drafting two o-linemen doesn’t automatically fix their woeful blocking. Singletary wanted to be a run-first team last year, too, and we saw how that worked out after Smith took over under center. Even with a revamped line, the team has too many weapons in the passing game (with sophomore WR Michael Crabtree coming along and Vernon Davis’ joining the elite tier of TEs in ’09) for Smith not to at least get the chance to make some waves.  Toby Gerhart (ADP 175) He’s the obvious handcuff for anyone with Adrian Peterson, but it seems to me that people are overlooking Toby’s on the field value. AP had 384 total touches in 2008 and 357 last year. That’s a lot of work to put on a guy who, coming into the league, was knocked for a running style that led to him taking too many big hits. I don’t think anyone should be surprised if Toby picks up a few carries here and there to keep AP fresh. But where Toby’s real value comes in is at the goal line. In 2009, Peterson had 7 fumbles in the regular season (plus 2 in the conference championship game). Last year, AP led the league in carries inside the ten yard line (42), and carries inside the five (30). If he can’t protect the ball, expect Toby to see some of those touches.  Chaz Schilens (ADP 155) With Jamarcus Russell no longer throwing errant passes in Oakland, this training camp star from last season should finally live up to the promises. In addition to the improvements under center, the Raiders play the NFC West this season, so there will be plenty of opportunities to feast on weak secondaries in San Francisco, Seattle and St. Louis. If he can stay healthy, he should be a solid WR3 that you can get on the cheap.  Dexter McCluster (ADP 193) Most of the offseason hype surrounding the Chiefs has focused on the backfield duo of Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles, and rightfully so, but this mini-man receiver should contribute immediately. He’ll line up in the slot, at RB and in wildcat – basically any way the Chiefs can get him the ball. He’ll also likely take up return duties as Charles becomes the centerpiece of the offense. Imagine a mixture of Darren Sproles and Josh Cribbs…that’s McCluster.  KEEPER/DYNASTY LEAGUES Anthony Dixon (Undrafted) It’s looking like Dixon, not Glenn Coffee, will be the handcuff for Frank Gore this season. But let’s look at the big picture. Gore will turn 28 years old (danger!) after the 2010 season, and considering his injury history, isn’t a lock to make it to that party without crutches. Dixon is going undrafted in most leagues, but is a smart pickup for anyone with the roster space to stockpile young talent. He’ll give you 1-2 starts this season when Gore is out, and should be in for a big bump in 2011.  Jonathan Dwyer (ADP 208) Full disclosure: I was burned by Rashard Mendenhall in 2008 and never fully recovered. Nonetheless, Dwyer has received nothing but praise this offseason, and Mendenhall has only carried the load for one year. That is hardly a sufficient sample size. Also, Tomlin has been including Dwyer’s name in discussions of goal line duty, a place where Mendenhall fell short last year.  Mike Williams (ADP 208) Williams has been getting rave reviews all offseason and is in line to start Week One. His ceiling for 2010 is limited with sophomore Josh Freeman throwing to him, but his future is bright as the two could be a powerful duo in the NFC South as soon as 2011.  Emmanuel Sanders (Undrafted) Antwaan Randle El and Arnaz Battle. These are the two players keeping rookie Sanders from taking the spot as the third wide receiver in Pittsburgh; also not the most intimidating competition. Sanders, an explosive receiver from SMU, should ascend to the WR3 spot by Week One. He may have a tough time getting looks, especially with Ben Roethlisberger suspended, but could get some deep looks that payoff. But the real payday for Sanders would be in 2011 when an aging Hines Ward should pave the way for a dramatic increase. Got any other Late Round Fliers? Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on Twitter@TheFantasyFix Written by Chris Sheehan exclusively for the www.thefantasyfix.com. Chris is an avid football fan and has been playing fantasy football for over ten years. Check back for more great articles from him weekly. Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Football Advice, Fantasy Football Blog, Fantasy Sports Blog, Ranks, Alex Smith, Toby Gerhart, Chaz Schilens, Dexter McCluster, Anthony Dixon, Jonathan Dwyer, Mike Williams, Emmanuel Sanders, Seasonal Leagues, Keeper Leagues, Dynasty Leagues, San Francisco 49ers, Minnesota Vikings, Pittsburgh Pirates, Detroit Lions |
