2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Advice & Analysis
Times are changing and Twitter has quickly become a great source of sports information. Everyone from sports stars to professional sports writers to internet-famed sports bloggers are writing daily. So TheFantasyFix.com decided it was far by time to do a roundtable with the LADIES of TWITTER! So here was the question: As the conclusion of the 2010 Major League Baseball regular season approaches, we would like to identify those players who fell short of expectations (busts) and those who exceeded expectations (surprises). Name one bust/surprise to this point of the 2010 season (describe their 2010) and state what you expect from them in the 2011 season. (rebound, maintain, regress etc..) And away we go!...  Biggest Bust Of 2010: Jason Bay | LF | New York Mets Jason Bay was a highly coveted free agent after the 2009 season. He was a three-time All-Star who had just hit .267 with 36 home runs and 119 RBIs. With the exception of a .745 OPS in 2007, Bay had an OPS of near .900 or better every season from 2003-09. As a result, the New York Mets rewarded him with one of the worst contracts in Major League Baseball – a four-year, $66 million deal that could top $80 million with a vesting option in the fifth year. Bay will turn 32 in less than a month. His age, history of injuries (shoulder surgery in 2003 and arthroscopic knee surgery in 2006), and subpar defense (lifetime UZR/150 of -7.8 in left field) should have deterred the Mets from offering such a lopsided contract. The Boston Red Sox’s best offer in retaining Bay was a four-year deal between $60 million and $65 million; they refused to include a fifth year. Thus, with his monstrous contract and even higher expectations for on-field performance, Bay is the biggest bust of 2010. He has not played since suffering a concussion in July nor do the Mets expect him to come back before season’s end. Not only was his fielding below average (-3.9 UZR/150), he struggled with swinging the bat. Bay was batting .259 with six home runs, 47 RBIs, and an OPS of .749. He’ll most likely miss 40% of the season. The Mets clearly didn’t pay Bay an average of $16.5 million a year for him to play bad defense, hit an offensive wall, and then sit out with an injury.  Biggest Surprise Of 2010: Jaime Garcia | LHP | St. Louis Cardinals Jaime Garcia was drafted 680th overall in the 22nd round of the 2005 draft by the St. Louis Cardinals. After making appearances in ten games in 2008, he underwent Tommy John surgery. He came back in 2009 to pitch 37 2/3 innings in the minors. No one expected Garcia to make the Cardinals’ 40-man roster. Manager, Tony La Russa, and pitching coach, Dave Duncan, both told Garcia numerous times in spring training that a return to Triple-A Memphis would be more beneficial to his development. Instead, Garcia was so impressive with a 3.00 ERA and a 4.0 K/BB ratio in 24 IP that he earned the No. five spot in the starting rotation. This season, he has astounded everyone with his prowess on the mound. He is now the No. three pitcher on staff after aces Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright. Of his 25 starts, 17 are quality starts. His ERA of 2.33 is the sixth best in the NL and his GB% of 55.2% ranks third in the NL. After Garcia got off to a hot start with a 1.04 ERA in April and 1.53 ERA in May, many worried that he had hit a rookie wall. His 4.50 ERA in June was highlighted by a 2.0 IP outing against the Kansas City Royals where he gave up five earned runs, the most allowed by Garcia this year. However, he has bounced back in the last two months and hasn’t given up an earned run in his last three starts. He even pitched his first ever complete game shutout on August 22nd against the San Francisco Giants in 89 pitches. Garcia has been a highly reliable arm in the wake of injuries to starters Brad Penny and Kyle Lohse. The lift he has given the Cardinals cannot be understated or overlooked, especially after coming back from Tommy John surgery.  Susan Shan, known as the Asian Sensation, is an independent sports analyst and writer. Check out Susan's writing, radio appearances, and video clips at http://www.susanshan.com. Feel free to tweet at her at http://twitter.com/susan_shan, as well. She's all about sports, all the time.  Biggest Surprise of 2010: Scott Rolen | 3B | Cincinnati Reds When Walt Jocketty traded for Scott Rolen on July 31st of last year, he was looking for veteran leadership, everyday all out effort, consistent hitting, strong RBI production and Gold Glove caliber fielding from the 34 yr old. Jocketty knew exactly what he was getting in Rolen. He was GM of the Cardinals in July 2002 when he traded four players to get Rolen from the Phillies. He also knew he was taking on Rolen’s eight-year, $90 million deal he signed him to in St. Louis. Rolen was a five-time All-Star, a seven- time Gold Glover and the 1997 NL Rookie of the Year with Philadelphia. He helped lead St. Louis to their 2006 World Series win. While Rolen was still playing Gold Glove-caliber defense at the hot corner, and was having a fine season at the plate, he had seen a dip in his power numbers. He was due $11 million last year and in 2010. That salary and the fact that injuries had limited Scott over the past four seasons, was seen as a major drawback. He was averaging just 379 at bats per season. This trade was not looked upon as a stellar one by many Cincy fans and some members of the press. Those that doubted the trade have been pleasantly surprised. He has provided everything that Jocketty was sure he could. From his veteran leadership to his increased power numbers, Rolen has been one of the key catalysts for the Reds turnaround this season. While appearing in just 106 games due to a hamstring injury, the 35 yr old Rolen is 2nd behind the hot as the face of the sun Joey Votto in most of the Reds major hitting numbers. Rolen has 19 home runs and has driven in 73 RBI. He has a .366 OBP, .528 SLG, .294 AVG and .893 OPS. All put him in 2nd place on the Reds roster. He has a .996 FPCT which is 2nd for 3rd basemen in the majors in 2010. He leads all active major league 3rd basemen in assists and Total Zone Runs and is 2nd for all active 3rd basemen in Range Factor per game. He ranks 6th in the NL in slugging and 9th in OPS for this season. He was named to the 2010 NL All Star Team. He also renegotiated his contract to assist the Reds and instead of the $11 million he was due, he deferred his salary and is making ‘only’ $7.6 million. As of the All Star break, in the year since they acquired Rolen, the Reds were 70 and 42 when he’s in the lineup and 12-26 when he’s not. He is projected to hit 25 HR’s and drive in 96 RBI, with a .366 OBP, .528 SLG and an .893 OPS in 2010. If he stays healthy, there is no reason to believe his 15th yr in the majors will show much regression. Irony watch: St.Louis is on the hook for paying the $4 million bonus due to Rolen in 2010.  Written by Jacqueline Hadley Conrad. Follow her on twitter @jhadleyconrad  Biggest Bust of 2010: Carlos Zambrano | RHP | Chicago Cubs RHP Carlos Zambrano was reinstated from the restricted list on July 30th of this year. That about sums up his 2010 season. Zambrano threw a tirade in the dugout on June 25th, after he gave up four runs in the first inning to their crosstown rivals, the White Sox. He then started a fight with teammate Derrek Lee. The Cubs coaching staff had to separate the two players. Piniella did not let Zambrano back in the game and he was later suspended indefinitely by the Cubs GM. Zambrano had to undergo anger management training during his suspension. Zambrano started the season as the Cubbies ace. He stumbled badly and gave up 8 runs to the Braves in one and a third innings. The Cubbies lost the game 16-5. His season has been up and down since that day. On April 21st he was sent to the bullpen. On May 30th the Cubbies moved Zambrano back to the rotation. In his four starts before his meltdown he went 2 and 2. After he returned from suspension he was moved back to the bullpen until Aug 9th. The Cubbies returned Zambrano to the rotation for the second time this season. He hasn't given up more than two runs and he's allowed only six runs in 24 innings. Although Zambrano has had some good results since his return, his velocity is diminished and his command is poor, which has always been his weakness. The $18 million the Cubbies are paying Zambrano has produced a W/L record of 5 wins and 6 losses. He has an ERA of 4.64 and a WHIP of 1.680. His W/L % is .455 with 0 shut outs and 72 strike outs. Compare that to his career averages of 110 wins and 74 losses, a 3.57 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. His career W/L % is .598 with 4 shut outs and 1396 strike outs. Between 2003 and 2006 he never had less than 13 wins. In 2007 he had 18 wins and 13 losses with a 3.95 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. He lead the NL in wins in 2006, is a three time All Star, as well as a three time Silver Slugger. From pitching a no hitter and playing in the All Star Game in 2008 to the disaster of this year, Zambrano is certainly a major disappointment.    Biggest Surprise of 2010: Jose Bautista | OF | Toronto Blue Jays I’d like to thank the Fantasy Fix for inviting me to the roundtable...and I’d like to curse the Fantasy Fix for inviting me to the roundtable. Having to choose just one surprise and one bust for the 2010 MLB season? For someone who tends to overanalyze, overthink and obsess about every little detail, this was no easy task. Here goes. Let’s start with my 2010 surprise: Toronto Blue Jays’ right fielder Jose Bautista. If you don’t know why I chose Bautista, that’s an even bigger surprise than his astounding numbers. Through 127 games, Bautista’s slash line is a remarkable .263/.380/.616, good for an eye-popping .996 OPS. That’s not why I chose Bautista. No, I chose him because of his Major League leading 42 home runs. Forty-two home runs (so far) from a player who has never topped 20 in a single season; from a player with his fifth team in six years. Bautista’s home runs (42) and RBI (99) totals so far are higher than those from his last two seasons combined. Whether it’s fantasy or reality, nobody in their right mind could have expected this output from Bautista. I did not choose Bautista to capitalize on sensationalistic speculation about potential PED use. I did not choose him because he’s a Yankee killer (.366/.527/.854; 6 HR in 12 games). I chose him solely because his production has been flat-out incredible, and completely surprising. For more, I recommend this piece by Fanhouse’s Frankie Pilliere about Bautista’s altered swing mechanics as a key to his success. Do I expect Bautista to replicate this season? No way. This is truly a once in a lifetime year. Do I think he can hit 30 home runs per season with regular playing time and adequate protection in the lineup? Absolutely. Note that Bautista will be a free agent after this season.  Biggest Bust of 2010: Pablo Sandoval | 1B/3B | San Francisco Giants Now for my choice for 2010 MLB bust. Unfortunately, I had many to choose from, including Josh Beckett and Chase Utley, but I wanted to avoid guys who have been injured and missed significant time. So who did I select as this year’s biggest disappointment? San Francisco Giant 1B/3B Pablo Sandoval. Though his position on the MLB All-Fat Team is secure, poor Kung Fu Panda just hasn’t lived up to expectations after his breakout rookie season. Let’s look at the numbers:  That’s a big drop, but most stunning is his inability to deliver with RISP this season. Last year, Sandoval hit .301/.390/.517 with RISP. In 2010 it’s .207/.294/.267. Those numbers are terrible, in both fantasy and reality. Admittedly, RISP production is often erratic, and for the long haul, players are rarely "clutch" or "unclutch." Assuming Sandoval is an .800 OPS hitter (somewhere between his 2009 and 2010 numbers), that's in the ballpark of what’s expected with RISP (rather than 2009's insanely good numbers in that spot, or 2010's horribly bad ones). Sandoval’s hitting has improved since Pat Burrell joined the Giants, and his K rate is about the same as last season’s. I would not give up on KFP. Next season I expect better than this season’s performance, but to come close to 2009 he needs to improve his numbers with RISP. If the Giants bring in another big bat to protect their rotund star, he has a chance. All data in this post sourced from Baseball-Reference.com, without which posts like this would be impossible.  Amanda Rykoff is a NYC-based sports fan, TiVo junkie and social media enthusiast. Amanda shares her observations, commentary and diatribes on these and many other topics on her blog, The OCD Chick. She is a former Director of Business Affairs at ESPN and previously hosted the ESPN podcast, “Play Ball! with Amanda and Melissa.” Her fantasy baseball team, Longorious Basterds, is currently in second place but hopes to make a late season push for the title. You can follow her on Twitter @amandarykoff.  Biggest Bust Of 2010: Chone Figgins | 2B/3B | Seattle Mariners After acquiring Cliff Lee, Milton Bradley and Chone Figgins over the winter, the Seattle Mariners were thought to be a key contender in 2010. However, things did not go the way the franchise had planned. Bradley took a leave of absence to deal with personal issues, leaving him on the bench as a utility man, and Lee, perennial trade bait, was sent to the Texas Rangers in July. That left Figgins to provide the Mariners with the solace that their off-season aggressiveness wasn’t all for naught. In 2009, Chone Figgins was among American League leaders in WAR, on-base %, tripples and stolen bases. He also led the league in walks, finished 10th in MVP voting and also played in his first All-Star Game. He was batting .292 in five full seasons as an Angel, averaging 162 hits, 52 RBI, and 44 stolen bases in 850 games from 2004-2009. After swinging at a career high 22.3% of pitches outside of the strike zone in 2007, his plate discipline was improving drastically, with his o-swing% in 2008 and 2009 at 16.5% and 15.1% respectively. He was considered one of the most desirable free agents on the market following the 2009 season. When Figgins arrived in Seattle, however, he was another player. In 127 games in 2010, Figgins is batting well below his career batting average, at .246. His o-swing% has crept to 19.7%. His saving grace from a fantasy perspective is that he has still stolen 32 bases, but for the most part, that is where his allure ends. ESPN buffs project that he will have another turn-around year in 2011, and for the sake of his 4-year, $36 million agreement with the Mariners, I hope they’re right.  Biggest Surprise Of 2010: Carlos Ruiz | C | Philadelphia Phillies In his first three full seasons with the Philadelphia Phillies, Ruiz was batting .245, and averaged 83 hits and 43 RBIs in 339 games. Among MLB catchers with a minimum 330 plate appearances, his batting average ranked 15th in 2007, 23rd in 2008, and 13th in 2009. In 2010, he is batting a career high .287, second only to Joe Mauer. To date, Chooch has started 84 games, and sat out 20 days with a concussion. Before being placed on the disabled list, Ruiz was hitting .275. Since returning to the lineup on July 10, he is batting .301 with an on-base percentage of .359 and slugging .496 in 40 games. Ruiz also has 22 of his 35 RBIs since July 10 and has had 10 go-ahead hits year to date. What’s easy to forget is that while 2010 may be the year of the pitcher, there is a catcher behind every staff ace. On April 5, Roy Halladay made his first start as a Phillie and reportedly never shook off Chooch once. On May 29, Doc pitched the 20th perfect game in history as Ruiz called the game from behind the plate. When the Phillies honored the perfect game on August 26, Doc presented Ruiz with a ring engraved with the phrase “We Did It Together”. Chooch has been a remarkable asset to the team both at and behind the plate, and if the projections are any indication, he will continue to lead the Phillies in their playoff hunt.  About “Chicks Dig the Long Ball” http://digphilly.wordpress.com Twitter: @BaseballLadies Founded by Michelle O’Malley (@M_OMalley on Twitter), Chicks Dig the Long Ball is a Philadelphia Phillies baseball blog written solely by women from all over the country. Game recaps range from the traditional play-by-play and box score style articles, to limericks, to virtual Twitter archives. Mixed in amongst all the statistical analysis are heartfelt pleas to underperforming players, odes to the plays that leave us speechless and even recipes dedicated to our men in red. It is ever expanding and still finding its niche in the Phillies blogosphere, but day after day proves that chicks do in fact dig not only the long ball but every other facet of the game as well. Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Sports Blog, Fantasy Sports Advice, Fantasy Baseball, MLB, Twitter, Jaime Garcia, Jason Bay, Carlos Zambrano, Scott Rolen, Jose Bautista, Pablo Sandoval, Chone Figgins, Carlos Ruiz, St. Louis Cardinals, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, Cincinnati Reds, Toronto Blue Jays, San Francisco Giants, Seattle Mariners, Philadelphia Phillies 1 Comment  David Murphy Start ‘Em David Murphy | Texas Rangers | 12.8% : Over the last three years Murphy has hit .417 with 3HRs 10RBI in only 36 at-bats at Camden Yards, one of the parks he’ll see this week. Against the other team he faces this week, Tampa Bay, Murphy has hit .345 with 8 of his 19 hits for extra-bases. His current hot streak should help propel him into a strong upcoming week. Pedro Alvarez | Pittsburgh Pirates | 25% : The ever increasingly hot rookie is poised for a big week. All week long he will have the benefit of home field where he’s hitting .287 with a .352 OBP. Nine of his ten HRs have been hit at home, and he hits 100 points higher at home as well. His OPS is a whopping 422 points higher at home! Mike Stanton | Florida Marlins | 39.2% : The upcoming away series at Houston should be great for Stanton owners. He has hit 140 points higher on the road (.327 avg. .398 OBP 1.081OPS away!!!). Those stats and his current hot streak and the poor performance of the Pittsburgh pitching staff should equate to a good week for Stanton.  Brett Gardner Sit ‘Em Ike Davis | New York Mets | 28.1% : Davis has been cold of late and this upcoming week shouldn’t warrant you taking any chances on this Met. Both of his games this week come away from Citi Field. On the road Davis is hitting .223 with a .288 OBP. Further dowsing the fire is his .227 avg. since the All-Star break. Leave him on the waiver wire where he belongs. Brett Gardner | New York Yankees | 99.7% : Gardner has been horrid since the All-Star break. He’s hitting .174 with a .296 OBP in the 69 at-bats since. Adding to his problems is his combined stats against the Tigers and Mariners, next week’s opponents. He’s hitting a combined .219 and going two for three in steals in 32 at-bats against those teams. Hitting 15 points higher at home might help him out, but don’t count on it.  Brett Anderson Two-Start Pitchers To Use Jonathon Niese | New York Mets | 15.5% : The two teams he faces in the upcoming week have very limited at-bats against him and are batting .067 against him in this limited sample. The main reason for Niese’s strong upcoming week is both Houston and Pittsburgh’s stats against left-handed pitching. Houston is the fourth-worst team in the NL against lefties (.250 avg., .306 OBP) and Pittsburgh is the second-worst hitting team against lefties in all of baseball (.244 avg., .312 OBP). Look for Niese to keep his WHIP low and hopefully score some wins for the reeling Mets. Brett Anderson | Oakland A’s | 81% : Next week Anderson faces a few teams that have some pop in there lineup. Don’t be timid though, every major power threat on both the Blue Jays and Rays is a right-handed batter. His career mark against righties is .239, and this year he has continued to lower it by keeping them to a .208 avg. Two more facts will help keep the balls in the park against Anderson. He has one of the best ground to fly-ball ratios in the majors this year (1.34) and both games will be at home in the Coliseum, the third-worst park for homeruns in the majors.  Jon Garland Two-Start Pitchers To Avoid Jon Garland | San Diego Padres | 55.1% : Garland’s career numbers at Wrigley exhibit a 5.50 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP. Mix that with his numbers this year away from spacious PETCO Park (4.52 ERA and a .267 BAA) and you have a recipe for a benching. Rich Harden | Texas Rangers | 39.4% : Those of you hoping for a turnaround in the oft-injured Harden should keep hoping for a new week. His career numbers against the Rays are bleak: 32 innings of 5.01 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. Considering both of his starts are away this upcoming week it’s also advised to take note of his ERA outside of the Ballpark in Arlington this year (6.40 ERA and 11 HRs in only 45 innings), ironic for being such a hitter-friendly park. Hind Sight Here we take a look at last week’s decisions and whether they might have paid off or not. All hind sight stats are through the end of games on Friday, August 13th. Start ‘Em: Bill Hall | Boston Red Sox | : .235 avg. .250 OBP 2 Runs 2 HRs 4 RBI. The batting average isn’t stellar but if you picked him up for the power and RBI production then you have reaped the benefits so far. Chris Johnson | Houston Astros | : .429 avg. .467 OBP 2 Runs 4 RBI. Chris Johnson continues to stay hot. With trade deadlines approaching, now is a great time to get him if he’s still available in your league. Jon Jay | St. Louis Cardinals | : .333 avg. .368 OBP 3 Runs 1 RBI. So far it has been a great decision if you did pickup/start Jay. The guy can rake and even though he can’t help in every category, he’s an asset to the one’s he can help. Sit ‘Em: Jack Cust | Oakland A’s | : .333 avg. 5Ks in 12 ABs. This is a small sample size through the week so far, yet the four strikeouts is a lot in only seven at-bats. Overall, this was a so-so sit, better if your league has a strikeout category for hitters. Jay Bruce | Cincinnati Reds | : .333 avg. in 9 ABs with 1 HR 3 RBI . Of course he hits one out right before I submit this article. Thanks for making me look bad. Pitchers To Use: Max Scherzer | Detroit Tigers |: 7IP 4H 1ER 4BB 2K Ervin Santana | Los Angeles Angels |: 6.1P 6H 3ER 1BB 3K Pitchers To Avoid: Jair Jurrjens | Atlanta Braves |: 7.1IP 6H 1ER 1BB 3K Edwin Jackson | Chicago White Sox |: 6IP 6H 1ER 1BB 7K All Statistical Information was obtained through ESPN.com Written exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com by James Bryce. James is a Grad student at UCSD and is currently in his 13th year of fantasy sports. Agree or disagree with James? Want to make a suggestions? Leave a comment at the top or respond to us on Twitter! Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, Week 20, Forecast, Two-Start Pitchers, Sit 'em, Start 'em, James Bryce, MLB, David Murphy, Pedro Alvarez, Mike Stanton, Ike Davis, Brett Gardner, Jon Niese, Brett Anderson, Jon Garland, Rich Harden  Madison Bumgarner Brett Wallace 1B TOR, August 26, 1986 - Traded to Oakland for Matt Holiday and then swapped for Michael Taylor after the Roy Halladay deal, Wallace has hit 27 HRs since being promoted to AAA last year. Coming up in the Cardinals system, Wallace figured to play 3B. But the Blue Jays have depth at 3B, so he's played 1B exclusively this year. Lyle Overbay stands directly in his way and he's being paid almost $8 million. If Wallace does get the call it will be at 1B or DH, so he's call will depend on the play of Overbay and Adam Lind. Although neither player has put up amazing numbers, it's unclear if the organization is ready to make a move. Madison Bumgarner P SF, August 1, 1989 - The Giants came into camp this spring and slotted the 10th pick of the 2007 draft into the 5th rotation spot, by the time season started, Bumgarner was in AAA Fresno. There was a lot published about his dip in velocity and his personal issues he dealt with in the off-season, but that's all behind us now. Since April 19th Bumgarner has been brilliant including a 0.94 ERA in the month of May. He had one hiccup in June which included an ejection and a 3 game suspension that brought back some of the personality concerns. The Giants put Todd Wellemeyer on the DL recently, but they used their roster move to add Joe Martinez instead of calling up Bumgarner. The Giants plan on skipping the 5th spot next time around to give Wellemeyer a chance to come off the DL. If Wellemeyer can't come off the DL, Bumgarner could get the call this month. Brandon Allen 1B ARI, Feb 12, 1986 - Late last year the Diamondbacks traded away one of their best relievers in Tony Pena for 1B prospect, Allen. He made a big splash in AAA Reno and found a lot of playing time with the Diamondbacks late last year. His numbers were not good and the organization signed 1B Adam LaRoche to a 1 year deal in the offseason. Allen started the year in AAA and took a while to get going. But in the last few weeks he has performed quite well. His BB/K rate is very encouraging for someone with the power of Allen. He is seeing the ball well and stands to get a look with the big league club soon. With the trade of Conor Jackson and quotes from management, the Diamondbacks will be part of quite the fire-sale this year. LaRoche would make for a nice fit for many clubs and should be moved very soon. With that move, Allen should see the majority of the time at 1B One last player to keep an eye on is Dayan Viciedo who was just called up by the White Sox. The 21 year old Cuban defector is going to have to earn his playing time, but he has a lot of upside. His career BB and K rates need to improve, but if he produces when he plays he could be the White Sox 3B for the next 10 years. Which of these do you think has the greatest fantasy baseball value in 2010? 2011? Leave a comment at the top or reply to us on twitter. Twitter.com/thefantasyfix Article by James Weston exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Check back weekly for James' excellent fantasy insight and analysis. Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, James Weston, MLB, Brett Wallace, Toronto Blue Jays, Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants, Brandon Allen, Arizona Diamondbacks, Dayan Viciedo, Chicago White Sox, Lyle Overbay, Adam Lind, Adam LaRoche, Conor Jackson, Tony Pena, Todd Wellemeyer  Simon Castro Key player notes from AA's Eastern, Southern and Texas Leagues. Who's moving on up and who's failing to distinguish themselves? POSITION PLAYERS Domonic Brown, OF Philadelphia AA Line - .313, 10 HR 37 RBI The 6'5 phenom has all the tools. In his first full season of Eastern League ball, Brown is making mince meat of opposing pitching. His power stroke continues to develop, with 27 XBH and a .562 SLG %. He's shown his patience and plate discipline drawing 25 BB in 201 plate appearances. He stole 23 bases between A & AA in 2009, and has swiped 10 bags in 15 attempts in 2010. Left handed pitching has not altered his approach, hitting them to the tune of .314 in 51 AB. On almost any other team, especially one with question marks in the outfield, he'd already be in the show. Don't count on the Phillies replacing Raul Ibanez any time soon. Dee Gordon, SS LA Dodgers AA Line - .283, 2 HR, 18 RBI Speed, speed and more speed. After stealing 73 bases in the Midwest League (A) last season, Gordon hasn't lost stride in '10. He's already notched 25 SB in 58 games, but has been caught ten times. On the downside, he's not drawing enough walks for a leadoff man, just 12 (.329 OBP). With his wheels, any BB can turn into a triple. Weighing in at only 150 pounds, there's not much pop there yet, but he has knocked in seven runs in his last 10 games. Gordon, a LHH, is batting just .185 in 81 at bats against LHP. Overall, he's slowed down considerably since a .345 April. Brett Lawrie, 2B Milwaukee AA Line - .285, 5 HR, 32 RBI #16 pick in 2008 has been a gap hitting machine. In addition to his five jacks, Lawrie has 15 doubles and nine triples. He had 18 doubles and six triples in all of 2009 (424 AB). He's raising his level as the summer heats up, hitting .362 in June with 17 knocks in his last ten games. In 66 at bats with RISP, he's hitting .333. If his triples total is any indication, he likes to run — 12 stolen bases as well. Lawrie's 16:49 BB to K ratio against RHP is worrisome. Josh Vitters, 3B Chicago Cubs AA Line - .229, 1 HR, 10 RBI The promotion to AA has not been particularly kind to 2007's #3 overall selection. Vitters hit .291 in 110 AB in the Florida State League, but has hit a meager .229 in 96 AB in the Southern League. He's drawn three walks and is slugging .302. Patience has been a major obstacle for Vitters, failing to crack the 13 walk plateau in his first three minor league seasons. Looking at it from that perspective, his combined BB total of 11 is actually encouraging. Seven of his 22 hits at AA have come with RISP (.304). Dustin Ackley, OF Seattle AA Line - .251, 1 HR, 19 RBI Ackley's stat line may not blow your socks off, but after hitting .147 during April in his first month of pro ball, his numbers are on the incline. He hit .303 in May and .344 in the first half of June. His eye at the plate has been remarkable. His walk total of 43 almost matches his hit total of 49. So despite his struggles, he has not lost the plot or pressed the issue. Ackley will make an ideal number two hitter, but don't expect big HR totals. 13 of his hits are doubles, using both gaps to his advantage. Mike Moustakas, 3B Kansas City AA Line - .339, 14 HR, 54 RBI Moustakas has been a dynamic run producer in the Texas League. He's averaging 1.2 RBI per game, thanks in large part to a .429 BA with RISP (24 hits in 56 AB). 11 of his 14 jacks have come with runners on base. His freakish numbers don't end there. He has a .416 OBP and .678 SLG %. Yes, that's a 1.094 OPS. After a .393 May, he's at a pedestrian .250 in June. Still, in 12 June games he's brought in 13 runs. Despite his relative domination, Moustakas will not see major league action in 2010. Logan Forsythe, 3B San Diego AA Line - .274, 1 HR, 12 RBI Another BB machine. In 28 games and 95 plate appearances, Forsythe has walked 24 times. Much like Ackley, his BB total almost matches his hit total of 26. This is not foreign territory for Forsythe, who drew 102 walks between A & AA in '09. He missed almost the entire month of May with a broken hand, and is still working to get his stroke back. Forsythe is a definite call up option for the Padres, who could sorely use his polished bat. Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B Cleveland AA Line - .292, 5 HR, 23 RBI After hitting 22 HR with 92 RBI in combined action last season, Chisenhall has found his power stroke in '10. He hit just a single homer with nine RBI in his first 126 AB, but has quickly jacked four homers and knocked in 14 in 42 June at bats. His double total of three is weak. PITCHERS Tim Alderson, SP Pittsburgh AA Line - 5-2, 4.29 ERA, 40 K The performance of the 6'6 right hander was underwhelming in 2009, and the same can be said thus far in 2010. He closed '09 with a 10-3 mark, but allowed 146 hits in 137 1/3 innings, and struck out only 84. In 65 innings in '10, he's given up 73 hits and has struck out 40. His GO/AO ratio is an improved 1.43, but opposing batters are seeing him too well, hitting .292. His last four starts have been extremely sharp: 25 innings, 20 hits and four ER. The Buccos just called up Brad Lincoln, so maybe they'll opt for a full bore youth movement. Alderson is just 21, however, and likely needs more seasoning. Kyle Gibson, SP Minnesota AA Line - 3-2, 3.65 ERA, 31 K The former Missouri Tiger was absolutely rolling and appeared on the fast track to the bigs. Gibson was 3-0 in May with a 1.37 ERA, and getting a sick 3.23 GO/AO. Queue the reality check. In his last two outings Gibson has gone 10 2/3 innings, allowing 15 hits and 11 ER. In his latest start on June 11th, he recorded just three ground-outs on balls put in play (0.38 ratio). Tight slider is his ground ball pitch. Jake McGee, SP Tampa Bay AA Line - 2-4, 3.65 ERA, 51 K The Rays have brought McGee along slowly following Tommy John surgery. His May 28th start was a turning point: 7 innings, the deepest he's gone into a game this season, giving up 5 hits and zero ER, walking one and striking out 11. He's allowed only one ER in his last four starts, spanning 23 2/3 innings. McGee has coughed up only two HR in 49 1/3 this season. He's a year away from contributing at the major league level, and even then his path is firmly blockaded. Simon Castro, SP Padres AA Line - 4-2, 2.48 ERA, 52 K Squaring up Castro's pitches has been an immensely arduous task. The Texas League is hitting a mere .197 against him. Righties are having an even tougher time at .164. After a 0.81 GO/AO ratio in '09, he's lived on the ground in '10 with a 1.69 ratio. Only three balls have left the park in 65 1/3 innings. Castro possesses a 'swinging gate' motion, which can definitely disrupt a hitter's timing. If the Padres suffer an injury in the rotation, he'd get the first call. Martin Perez, SP Texas AA Line - 2-3, 5.32 ERA, 47 K The 19-year old Perez has turned heads in the Rangers system, but is currently suffering through the growing pains. His WHIP is far too high at 1.69. He walked just 38 in 114 2/3 innings in AA last season, but has already given out 27 free passes in 45 2/3 innings this year. His strikeout and ground ball (1.47) rates show the promise of what lies ahead. The latest rumor has the Rangers, of all teams, interested in Roy Oswalt. If so, it could very well take an arm like Perez to acquire him. Zach Britton, SP Baltimore AA Line - 6-3, 2.84 ERA, 55 K The O's are a pitiful bunch right now, but they sure have a plethora of young pitching. Britton went 3-1 with a 2.60 ERA during the month of May, with a (don't adjust your monitor) 4.27 GO/AO ratio. He allowed 27 hits in 34 2/3 innings, K'ing 24. He's come out on top in both of his June starts as well, allowing one run in 13 1/3. Britton's ground ball success is not an aberration: In 147 1/3 innings of A ball in 2008 he finished with 2.81 GO/AO, and in 140 innings of Advanced A his ratio was 3.38. Don't panic Oriole fans, he's not related to former O Chris Britton. NOTES Wilkin Ramirez, OF Detroit- Ramirez was promoted to AAA on June 8. His immense power, 15 HR in 54 games, got him the call. Not his .243 BA or 82 K's in 210 AB. Kyle Russell, OF LA Dodgers- Russell got the promotion to AA after tearing through the California League, hitting .354 with 16 HR and 53 RBI in 53 games. His OPS was a 1.140. It's safe to say the soon to be 24 year old warranted an upgrade in competition. Phillippe Aumont, SP Philadelphia- After getting lit up in 11 starts at AA, Aumont was demoted to the Florida State League. He was 1-6 with a 7.43 ERA, and allowed 38 BB in 49 2/3 innings. In his first A ball appearance he went 2/3 of an inning, giving up 3 hits and 5 runs, walking 4 in the process. There is much work to be done.. Jemile Weeks, 2B Oakland, Weeks has been out since May 6th with a hip injury. He was hitting .304 with 2 HR, 3 triples, 7 doubles and 13 RBI prior to being disabled. Written by Adam Ganeles for The Fantasy Fix. Check back weekly for Adam's awesome insight on MLB and MiLB Fantasy Baseball! We'd love to hear your thoughts on AA ball. Hit us up on Twitter. Twitter.com/thefantasyfix Tags: MiLB, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, The Fantasy Fix, Featured Blog, Minor League Baseball, A, AA, AAA, The Farm Report MLB, NL, AL, Domonic Brown, Dee Gordon, Brett Lawrie, Josh Vitters, Dustin Ackley, Mike Moustakas, Logan Forsythe, Lonnie Chisenhall, Tim Alderson, Kyle Gibson, Jake McGee, Simon Castro, Martin Perez, Zach Britton, Wilkin Ramirez, Kyle Russell, Phillippe Aumont, Jemile Weeks, Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Dodgers, Milwaukee Brewers, Chicago Cubs, Seattle Mariners, Kansas City Royals, San Diego Padres, Cleveland Indians, Pittsburgh Pirates, Minnesota Twins, Tampa Bay Rays, Texas Rangers, Baltimore Orioles, Detroit Tigers, Oakland Athletics, Florida State League, The Fantasy Fix's AAA Farm Report 06/06/2010
 Madison Bumgarner Key player notes from AAA's International and Pacific Coast Leagues. Who's moving on up and who's failing to distinguish themselves? POSITION PLAYERS Michael Brantley , OF Cleveland- AAA Line .281, 1 HR, 11 RBI With Grady Sizemore sidelined for the year following knee surgery, a spot appears to have opened up for Brantley. But where has Brantley's speed gone? After stealing 46 bases in 116 games at AAA Columbus in 2009, he's swiped only 5 bags in 36 games in 2010. He's not even attempting to run, only being caught twice. It should also be noted that he didn't attempt a stolen bases in 9 games with the big club earlier this season. Brantley hit .313/0/11 in '09 in 112 major league AB, and .156/0/3 in 32 AB in '10 before his demotion. Pedro Alvarez , 3B Pittsburgh- AAA line .278, 11 HR, 47 RBI Alvarez, the Buccos #2 overall pick in the 2008 First-Year Player Draft, is showing serious pop at the highest minor league level. He's compiled 12 doubles, 3 triples and 11 HR for a .527 SLG %. After struggling early on against left-handed pitching, Alvarez has picked up the pace. His .286 BA in 56 AB against LHP now sits higher than .275 BA in 149 AB versus RHP. He can't be too far from the majors with Andy LaRoche and his .317 OBP and .349 SLG in his path. There's also a possibility Garret Jones will shift to RF and Alvarez will move across the diamond to 1B. Todd Frazier , 1B Cincinnati- AAA line .194, 7 HR, 19 RBI Talk about struggling with the stick.. Frazier is in a rough place right now. After hitting .292/16/77 in AAA Louisville in 2009, he has just 33 hits and a .266 OBP through 47 games in 2010. The Reds have moved Frazier all over the field defensively, and it could be taking it's toll on his overall game. They may be better suited keeping him in one spot and letting him focus on his ticket to the bigs, his swing. Desmond Jennings , CF Tampa Bay- AAA Line .236 0 HR 6 RBI Jennings missed much of April with a left wrist injury and has not been himself since returning. Jennings numbers are dramatically down from 2009 when he hit .318/11/62 for AAA Durham. In his last 10 games Jennings is batting .175 (7 for 40) with 1 RBI, 11 K and 1 SB. He has been extremely effective on the base paths on the season, stealing 12 while being caught only once. He swiped 52 bags in 59 attempts in '09. Jennings is viewed as the Rays top offensive prospect, but will need to pick up his production to reach the majors. Jason Castro , C Houston- AAA Line .279, 1 HR, 18 RBI Castro's best attribute has been his eye at the plate. He's walked 31 times against just 24 K's for an OBP of .396. However, the pop, in the hitter friendly PCL nonetheless, is sorely missing. He has 1 HR and 7 XBH in 165 AB, and is slugging an unimpressive .333. Castro has done his best work with RISP, hitting .326 and driving in 15 of his 18 runs. Logan Morrison , 1B Florida- AAA Line .300, 3 HR, 17 RBI Gaby Sanchez has been adequate at 1B for the Marlins, but he can't hold off Morrison for long. In 25 games with AAA New Orleans, Morrison is sporting a .400 OBP and .544 SLG. His BB/K ratio is 16/13. In 24 AB with RISP he's raking to the tune of .458. He's also displayed solid top end speed notching 3 triples to go along with his 7 doubles. PITCHERS Jake Arrieta , SP Baltimore- AAA line 6-2, 1.85 ERA, 64 K The O's top pitching prospect is rolling right along in 2010, owning the top ERA in the International League. Opponents are hitting a meager .189 against him, and he's getting 1.43 ground outs to air outs. In his last 3 starts he's thrown 22 innings, allowing 16 hits, 2 ER and striking out 23. Arrieta was scratched from his June 5 start and could be headed to the big club imminently. Snatch him up while you can! Jeremy Hellickson, SP Tampa Bay- AAA Line 8-2, 2.28 ERA, 71 K The power pitching Hellickson leads the AAA IL with 8 wins. He's been real stingy on the mound, not yielding a run in 4 of his last 5 starts. In those 4 starts he's pitched 27 innings, allowed 16 hits and K'd 27. With Wade Davis' ERA now over 5, will Hellickson get the call? Carlos Carrasco , SP Cleveland- AAA Line: 4-2, 4.68 ERA, 46 K Now at 23 years of age, Carrasco has still failed to live up to the hype. Prior to being dealt to the Indians, Carrasco made 20 starts for AAA Lehigh Valley in 2009, going 6-9 with a 5.18 ERA. He finished the season strong for AAA Columbus winning 5 of 6 starts with a .319 ERA and allowing only 31 hits in 42 1/3 innings. He has taken a step back once again in early in 2010. He's given up 64 hits in 59 2/3 innings while striking out only 46. Opponents are hitting a comfortable .282 against him, and right handed hitters are hitting .313. On a positive note, Carrasco is getting ground balls with a 1.21 GO/AO ratio. Madison Bumgarner , SP San Francisco- AAA Line: 5-1, 2.73 ERA, 43 K As Todd Wellemeyer continues to get shelled, a logical question arises: where is Madison Bumgarner? The Giants top farmhand has been sharp since two rough starts to open the AAA season, albeit, not in dominating fashion. He's allowed 66 hits in 62 2/3 innings of work and struck out only 43. Nevertheless, Bumgarner's been extremely effective at forcing opponents to pound the ball into the ground. For example: In his May 23rd start vs. Nashville he recorded 14 outs on balls put in play. 12 were recorded on the ground. Despite giving up his 12 hits in 6 2/3 innings in that start, he maneuvered his way through the jams without conceding an earned run. WHERE'D THEY GO? Chris Davis, 1B Texas- Davis is hitting .313 with 5 HR and 31 RBI for AAA Oklahoma City in the PCL. He's still striking out too much with a 13/37 BB/K ratio. Alex Gordon , OF Kansas City- Gordon has been killing the ball in 31 games for AAA Omaha in the PCL. He's batting .371 with 9 HR and 26 RBI. His OBP is a ridiculous .510 and his SLG % is an equally preposterous figure at .662. Keep in mind, Royals GM Dayton Moore said it is unlikely that Gordon will be called up for the remainder of 2010. Chris Johnson , 3B Houston- Johnson is tearing the cover off the ball for AAA Round Rock: .330, 6 HR and 26 RBI. However, he still refuses to take a BB. He's walked only 5 times in 103 AB, and his OBP is only .24 higher than his BA. With the Astros season nearing an early termination, he'll get the call back up soon. Johnson hit .227/0/2 in 22 AB earlier this year for the 'Stros. Written by Adam Ganeles for The Fantasy Fix. Check back weekly for Adam's awesome insight on MLB and MiLB Fantasy Baseball! We'd love to hear your thoughts on AAA ball. Hit us up on Twitter. Twitter.com/thefantasyfix Tags: Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, The Fantasy Fix, Featured Blog, Minor Leagues, AAA, The Farm Report MLB, NL, AL, Michael Brantley, Pedro Alvarez, Todd Frazier, Desmond Jennings, Jason Castro, Logan Morrison, Jake Arrieta, Jeremy Hellickson, Carlos Carrasco, Madison Bumganer, Chris Davis, Alex Gordon, Chris Johnson, Houston Astros, Kansas City Royals, Texas Rangers, San Francisco Giants, Cleveland Indians, Tampa Bay Rays, Baltimore Orioles, Florida Marlina, Cincinnati Reds, Pittsburgh Pirates,  Cameron Maybin Off the charts potential. Unteachable physical ability. Five tool player. Top rated prospect. Minor league success. You hear these terms associated with a healthy number of up and comers, but only the special ones fulfill the hype. It takes experience, maturity and the ability to recognize the need for, and implementation of, adjustments in your game. Two center fielders in particular, both with undeniable talent, are going through these growing pains at the plate in 2010: Dexter Fowler of the Colorado Rockies and Cameron Maybin of the Florida Marlins. Fowler, 24, tore up AA Tulsa in 2008 with a .335 BA, .431 OBP, 9 HR and 64 RBI. He was recalled to the big club in September of '08, and spent his first full season in the majors in 2009. His rookie campaign was more than respectable, hitting .266 with 4 HR, 73 runs scored and 34 RBI. He didn't display home run pop, but used the gaps well finishing with 29 doubles and 10 triples. Despite 116 K, he showed good patience and plate discipline, drawing 67 walks. His 'easy' speed and long strides resulted in 27 bases swiped. The opening stanza of 2010 has not been as kind to Fowler. Pitchers have made their adjustments, and he has yet to make the appropriate acclimations. In 118 official plate appearances, he's batting .237 with 1 HR and only 3 RBI. He has struggled significantly with runners in scoring position, coming up with only 4 hits in 23 AB (.174). He's doesn't appear to be pressing, still having drawn 20 base on balls. In fact, he might be too patient. He's seen 567 pitches, and has faced an 0-2 count in 31 of his plate appearances (3 hits). He has 6 hits in 14 AB when putting the first ball in play. Perhaps a more aggressive approach would be beneficial. Fowler, a switch hitter, has had a rough go from the left side, hitting just .185 in 85 AB with 23 K. He's stolen 5 bases and been caught 3 times. Maybin, 23, was the 10th overall selection by the Tigers in the 2005 amateur draft. He got a taste of major league action as a 20 year old in 2007, where he struck out 21 times in 49 at bats. Despite his struggles, he was still considered a top 10 prospect in MLB, and was the cornerstone piece in the Miguel Cabrera trade. He spent 82 games in AAA New Orleans before getting the call in 2009. In 176 major league at bats in '09, Maybin hit .250 with 4 HR, 13 RBI and struck out 51 times. He showed flashes, but all in all seemed "lost" at the dish. 2010 has been a similar story for Maybin. There are times when he gets overly pull conscious, opens up too early and flails at the ball. When he waits back and uses the whole field, which he's more than capable of doing, he looks like a completely different hitter. In 117 plate appearances he's batting .250 with 1 HR and 8 RBI. 25 of his 30 hits have been singles. Like Fowler, he's too patient early on in counts for a hitter with suspect pitch recognition. He's struck out 39 times, and after falling behind in the count 0-2, he's 2 for 27. He's seen 539 pitches. If he went up to the plate with a plan of attack, he'd take more full, assertive cuts rather than tentative, staying alive swings. Both Fowler and Maybin are still trying to find their identities at the highest level. Time is on their side. As they gain more experience, the future looks quite bright.At 6'4 and 6'3 respectively, you'd think both can still grow into power. Neither has shown it to this stage. Other scuffling young OF's: Chris Coghlan, LF Marlins- .208, 1 HR, 7 RBI. Coghlan, last year's NL Rookie of the Year, has just two extra base hits in 125 at bats. His K:BB ratio of 31:10 is not pretty. He's just 5 for 26 (.192) with RISP. Adam Jones, CF Orioles- .245, 3 HR, 9 RBI. An All-Star in 2009, Jones has really felt the hurt of Brian Robert's absence in the lineup. 28 of his 38 hits have been singles, including 9 of the infield variey. He's had 1 successful stolen base attempt in 4 tries. After hitting .311 with RISP in '09, he currently sits at .208. Justin Upton, RF Diamondbacks- .250, 6 HR, 20 RBI- Scuffling is a bit harsh, but when you have sky high expectations as Upton does , the subtleties get pointed out. Quite simply, he's striking out exorbitantly. 49 strikeouts in 144 AB is just obscene (34% strikeout rate). With his natural stroke to right field, there is no reason he should be hitting .250. This article was written by our featured writer Adam exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Adam Ganeles adam.ganeles@inasectv.com Twitter.com/adamganeles Tags: Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Sports Blog, The Fantasy Fix, Adam Ganeles, Dexter Fowler, Colorado Rockies, Cameron Maybin, Florida Marlins, Chris Coughlan, Adam Jones, Baltimore Orioles, Justin Upton, Arizona Diamondbacks |
