2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Advice & Analysis
Greetings fantasy baseballers and welcome to another edition of the Wire. Hopefully you heeded the past weeks’ advice and picked up Pat Burrell, Mike Minor, Daniel Hudson and others, before it was too late. This week is sort of a special edition with a look at a trio of closers – mostly of the present, and mostly with no future. Regardless, they have one thing in common – they will receive the lion’s share of save opportunities for their respective teams. That translates to the potential to rack up some fantasy points all over the land. And the first contestant is…  Hisanori Takahashi, RP – NYM – Owned in 18% of CBS leagues Mr. Takahashi has been somewhat of an enigma for the Metropolitans this season. He had success as a reliever early on, often times bailing out the starters by providing two or three innings of solid relief. In fact, in his first 15 relief appearances for the Mets, he went two-plus innings seven times. Before being moved into the rotation on May 21, Takahashi put up three wins with a 3.12 ERA in 24.2 IP and a 33:14 K:BB ratio – not too shabby. At that point, the Mets rotation started to fall apart and he was summoned to the rotation. In 12 starts, he did not fare nearly as well, posting a 4-4 record with a 5.01 ERA while surrendering 73 hits in 64.2 innings. In addition, opposing hitters batted a robust .291 against him in those starts. Manuel had seen enough of Takahashi the starter and summoned Takashi the reliever, replacing him with Pat Misch in the rotation. Now with the Francisco Rodriguez meltdown and subsequent thumb injury, Manuel has named Takahashi his closer. He brings a year of closing experience from his tenure in the Japanese league. In his sole save opportunity, he closed out the Astros in a hitless inning this week. You can ride Takahashi for as long as Manuel keeps him as the closer. Keep in mind that the Mets also have Bobby Parnell, who has pitched well as of late. Manual may throw some save chances his way to see how he performs in a late-inning role. Hong-Chih Kuo, RP – LA – Owned in 13% of CBS leagues The main difference between Kuo and Takahashi is that Kuo has been in a late inning relief role for his team, the Dodgers, the entire season. Furthermore, he has posted great stats thus far and has been the bridge that every team searches for to get the ball to the closer. Unfortunately for Jonathan Broxton, the now-deposed closer, Kuo has pitched so well that he’s replacing Broxton, for the time being at least. If the Dodgers have any chance of making the playoffs, they cannot afford any more meltdowns by the usually-dominating Broxton. This was the main impetus behind Joe Torre’s decision to switch their roles in the ‘pen. Including Kuo’s first two save opportunities, he has put up an ERA of 1.48 on the season, which was inflated by more than half a run after his implosion against Atlanta. Torre summoned Kuo in the 8th inning, much like he used to with Mariano in his Yankee days. Kuo ran into trouble in the 9th and blew the save. In 42.3 innings pitched this season, Kuo has a tremendous 52:14 K:BB ratio with a miniscule 0.85 WHIP along with three wins and four saves. Kuo has been nothing short of dominant this season and now stands to gain a boat-load of value in fantasy leagues. One would have to believe that as long as he’s successful in the closer’s role, Torre will leave him there. The Dodgers also have Octavio Dotel to vulture a few saves, but for now Kuo is the closer in LA. He’s a must-add to fantasy rosters as CBS owners have demonstrated, making him the most added player in CBS fantasy leagues. His ownership will jump to 47% next week, which is still rather low. Grab him while you can. Trevor Hoffman, RP – MIL – Owned in 27% of CBS leagues Mr. Hoffman has had a rocky 2010 thus far. In the first half of the season, he was tagged for four losses and blew five of his ten save opportunities. He had an ERA of 8.33 heading into the All-Star break. In 27 innings, he gave up 25 runs on 34 hits along with an unimpressive 17:13 K:BB ratio. These are hardly the numbers expected from Hoffman, or any closer in the league for that matter. Since the All-Star break, Hoffman has had a bit of a resurgence. In 12 appearances, his ERA is a more respectable 3.09 along with a 10:4 K:BB ratio. Opposing batters are hitting only .227 against him versus .306 before the break. With Milwaukee out of the playoff race and not much else to play for, manager Ken Macha has decided to give Hoffman save opportunities once again. The Brewers would love for Hoffman to reach the 600 save mark and give them something to cheer about in the closing weeks of the season. John Axford presumably will continue to get his chances as well, which makes Hoffman far from a sure thing to score significant points for your team. Regardless, Macha will give him every chance to add to his save total. If you have the stomach for it, pick up Hoffman sooner rather than later and hope for the best, especially if you need to bolster your Save category. HONORABLE MENTION Omar Infante, 2B – ATL – Owned in 34% of CBS leagues Filled in admirably for Martin Prado at 2B and will get regular AB’s with Chipper out for the season. Hits righties and lefties well. Batting .361 since the break with a .862 OPS and has hit over .300 every month except for one this season. Jose Guillen, OF – SF – Owned in 45% of CBS leagues Guillen will get a decent amount of AB’s in SF. While he won’t hit for average, he surely has some pop left in his bat. Hitting .375 for the Giants since the trade and has 17 HR’s on the season. Chris Denorfia, CF – SD – Owned in 4% of CBS leagues Denorfia is batting .321 since the break with a 1.039 OPS. He has six homers and 16 RBI plus four SB’s in the second half. Solid pick up for deeper leagues. Written by Rosti Satanovsky exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. You can follow him on Facebook or Twitter@TheSportsFariah Who are your NL waiver wire gems of the week? Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on Twitter@TheFantasyFix Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, Fantasy Sports Blog, The NL Wire, Waiver Wire, Mike Minor, Pat Burrell, Daniel Hudson, Hisanori Takahashi, Pat Misch, Francisco Rodriguez, Hong-Chih Kuo, Jerry Manuel, Jonathan Broxton, Joe Torre, Octavio Dotel, Trevor Hoffman, John Axford, Ken Macha, Omar Infante, Martin Prado, Jose Guillen, Chris Denorfia, New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers, Milwaukee Brewers, Atlanta Braves, San Francisco Giants, San Diego Padres Add Comment  The Big Bats of Pedroia & Utley returned Tuesday The second base position just got a whole lot beefier, as today three of the positions top guns have been activated from the disabled list. Proud owners of Dustin Pedroia, Chase Utley and Martin Prado have been forced to plug holes with stragglers like Adam Kennedy and Blake DeWitt. Now is your time to rejoice. Dustin Pedroia returns to the Red Sox after breaking his left foot nearly two months ago on June 26th. In his stead, Bill Hall received the majority of starts at 2B, with Eric Patterson and Jed Lowrie also seeing action. Hall hit 12 homers after Pedroia went down, providing a decent clutch for fantasy owners. Hall will likely get significant starts in CF with Jacoby Ellsbury heading back to the DL after more pain in his slow healing fractured ribs. While Pedroia might not be 100% game ready, he is still a must start in all leagues. But be wary, he does tend to run in red-hot and ice-cold streaks. A slow start is a realistic expectation while he shakes off the rust. He was hitting .292 with 12 HR and 41 RBI prior to the injury, and had raised his average .38 points in June (from .254). Right thumb surgery has sidelined Chase Utley since June 29th. It had long been speculated that Utley was struggling with the thumb, forcing him to make adjustments to his swing. That could very well be the reason for his average production in the season's first three months. His .277, 11 HR, 37 RBI stat line looks solid for most second baseman, but for Utley those figures are a disappointment. If Utley is pain free, expect a big final push from him once he settles in. His stroke is the epitome of 'simple' and it shouldn't take him long to rediscover it. Placido Polanco will now shift back to third base full time, and Wilson Valdez will hit the bench. The 32-year-old Valdez did a more than admirable job being thrust into regular action, but was never a fantasy option. A career utility man, Martin Prado's fractured finger might have come at an ideal time (well, no injury is ideal). His batting average had plummeted .22 points from .337 to .315 in the month of July suggesting he needed a breather. Maybe sitting on the sidelines for a short while and re-energizing his body will be a positive in the long run. Unlike his 2B compatriots, he's only been out since July 31st and could find his groove in a flash. All-star selection Omar Infante continued to rake in his absence putting up seven multi-hit games thus far in August. Infante possesses position eligibility all over the diamond, and should continue to see regular AB's at third base with Chipper Jones on the shelf for the year. Once again, Troy Glaus could be the big loser. In other injury news, Charlie Manuel characterized first baseman Ryan Howard's chances of returning to the lineup before Friday as "slim". Howard has been out since August 2nd with sprained ligaments in his ankle. He's eligible to come off the DL today, but that's obviously not happening. How exactly the Phillies plan to handle his rehabilitation remains unclear. Patience is the key my fantasy brethren, patience. Meanwhile, Mike Sweeney will continue to get the bulk of starts at 1B and is a realistic option in NL-only leagues until big #6 returns. Written by Adam Ganeles exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Look for Adam's weekly insight into Major & Minor League Ball. Who do you think will have the strongest return, Pedroia, Utley or Prado? Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on twitter @TheFantasyFix Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, Fantasy Sports Blog, Return from Injury, Dustin Pedroia, Chase Utley, Martin Prado, Jacoby Ellsbury, Bill Hall, Eric Patterson, Jed Lowrie, Adam Kennedy, Blake DeWitt, Placido Polanco, Wilson Valdez, Omar Infante, Chipper Jones, Troy Glaus, Ryan Howard, Jerry Manuel, Mike Sweeney, Boston Red Sox, Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves The most common representation of a players production is their slash line which consists of Batting Average, Slugging Percentage, and On-Base Percentage. Generally, we look at the players Slugging Percentage as a measure of their ability to get extra base hits and drive in runs. But the formula for Slugging Percentage uses singles, and what kind of power measure includes singles? Any MLB player can slap a ball down for a single from time to time. We want extra base hits because that's what drives in runs and produces the stats that are near and dear to us. SABR recognized this and created a complementary stat to Slugging Percentage which did not account for singles. The formula they came up with was: ISO = (2B + 2*3B + 3*HR)/AB For all of you math nerds out there who passed Algebra II... you may notice that the formula for ISO is Slugging percentage minus Batting Average. The best power hitters in the game will have an ISO around .300 and anyone with an ISO over .200 is hitting for power at a good clip. An ISO below .200 indicates that a vast majority of the players hits are not going for extra bases. When looking at the league leaders in ISO we find a who's who of the big bats in baseball. This year, its no surprise that Jose Batista is lapping the field with a .336 ISO. Trailing Batista is Adam Dunn at .300 and Miguel Cabrera at .290. This isn't very surprising and isn't very helpful, but that's because we're looking at the league leaders. We need to dig a little deeper and find some interesting players. For example, tied with Ryan Howard and Mark Teixeira with a .236 ISO is... Colby Rasmus. Now we've known that Rasmus can hit for power, but it's surprising that he hits at a comparable rate as Howard and Teixeira? If you talk to Fantasy "Experts", they might throw Rasmus' name around in potential 20/20 guys, but it is becoming more and more evident that Rasmus is going to have the power to hit 30 and even 40 Home Runs. Rasmus just turned 24 this month and only has 19 Home Runs this year, but going into next year, make a note that he has tremendous upside power. On the flip side of ISO, take a look at Jorge Cantu. He slots into the middle line-up because he's supposed to have a big bat. If you were standing next to him, you'd expect him to be a power hitter (he looks the part). But if you take a look at his ISO, and talk to his owners, he just doesn't have the power you think he does. He's posting a .138 ISO this year and a career .173 ISO. Sure he can drive in some runs and have nice stretches like he did this spring, but Cantu doesn't hit for as much power as advertised. Even in 2008 when he hit 28 HR and drove in 95, he still only posted a .204 ISO. In the end, the stat is the end all/be all. There is always room for argument. But when you're searching for value out there, ISO is a good reason to bump a player up or knock them down a bit. Someone like Rasmus has more value than his standard stats may suggest and that's what we're looking for when evaluating fantasy value... a little stat like ISO could direct you towards a championship. Written by James Weston for theFantasyFix.com. When James isn't spittin' statistics down on paper he's hacking away at Fantasy apps at http://valuetownfantasy.com You can also find him on Twitter @TheRealJamesA Follow us on twitter @TheFantasyFix Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, Fantasy Sports Blog, ISO, Slugging Percentage, Adam Dunn, Colby Rasmus, Jose Bautista, Mark Teixeira, Ryan Howard, Miguel Cabrera Every season, we under or overvalue players in the offseason; it’s the nature of the beast. Whether it is personnel changes around them, scheme changes, or injury concerns, something jumps out and makes us either love or hate a player before the season even begins. Earlier this week, we looked at a few of the quarterbacks who I believe are undervalued and overvalued, based on their Average Draft Position (ADP). Today, we’ll consider some running backs who’s ADP doesn’t quite match their value. (Note that just because I think someone is overrated, doesn’t mean I don’t think they will perform this season. I just think the cost of drafting them is too high. Likewise, if someone is underrated, it doesn’t mean they will be the top fantasy scorer at their position, just that they will outperform their draft position.)  UNDERRATED Ricky Williams (ADP 69, RB 30) Despite putting up scoring more fantasy points than Ryan Grant (ADP 21) and Jonathan Stewart (ADP 31) in 2009, Williams is again going significantly lower than them in 2010 drafts. Ricky may be on wrong side of thirty (he turned 33 in May) and competing with Ronnie Brown for touches, but the curious case of Ricky Williams is not one to be ignored. He took off, essentially, two full seasons from 2006-2007, and by all accounts takes tremendous care of himself. Last year’s stats may be atypical, and I don’t expect him to match that production this season, but he will certainly outpace his draft position. As the 30th running back off the board, he is being drafted as a flex player, but should give mid-level RB2 stats with the occasional spikes when Brown misses a few games. Williams offers a great return on investment with a very reasonable floor.  OVERRATED Rashard Mendenhall (ADP 11, RB 8) Mendenhall’s road to fantasy stardom is not paved as finely as some would have you believe. His quarterback is suspended for the first 4-6 games, his right tackle is out for the season with a torn Achilles tendon, his pets’ heads are falling off. OK, the last one isn’t true (as far as I know), but the point remains that the Steelers are having a rough offseason. Add to that, Mendenhall has consistently had problems with short yardage and goal line situations, and his price tag this early seems inflated. Although rookie Jonathan Dwyer appears to have drawn the ire of the coaching staff, Mendenhall still doesn’t seem likely to fill the role of the team’s goal line back. Ultimately he’s a mid to upper-level RB2 with a RB1 price tag.  UNDERRATED Thomas Jones (ADP 90, RB 37) Jones is another guy on the wrong side of thirty (he turns 32 next week) who, like Ricky Williams, is playing a few years below his age. It wasn’t until his fifth year in the NFL that he surpasses 140 carries in a season. Now in Kansas City, Jones will likely split carries 50-50 with Jamaal Charles, which is a good thing for Jones’ owners. Limiting his touches will take an appreciable toll on his yardage totals, but it should allow him to make it through the entire season healthy and fresh. Head coach, Todd Haley, seems high on Jones, and has referred to him as a “beast.” He won’t be the 1400 yard, 14 TD he was in 2009, but he is certainly in a position to vulture enough goal line looks to stay fantasy relevant. Drafted 37th among running backs, he should finish the season in the top 20-25 at his position, making him a solid RB2.  UNDERRATED Justin Forsett (ADP 113, RB 42) Forsett is getting sleeper hype from all angles this offseason, and I’m jumping right on the bandwagon. Despite an underwhelming offensive line and a number three spot on the depth chart, Forsett’s chances for a breakout year look promising. He was the most consistently productive back in Seattle last season, averaging 5.4 yards per carry (YPC). Despite his small stature, a heavier workload doesn’t appear to be a problem for Forsett, whose YPC increased to 6.3 in games where he logged at least 10 carries. His excellent pass-catching skills only add to his value, solidifying him as an excellent flex with upside for RB2 production.  OVERRATED Ryan Mathews (ADP 17, RB 11) I get the hype, I really do. He’s a big, strong back who dominated the college ranks (the WAC isn’t the SEC, but it’s also not high school) who looks to get the bulk of the carries for an offensive juggernaut in the San Diego Chargers, stepping into the vacated shoes of future Hall of Famer LaDainian Tomlinson. He’ll also be playing under Norv Turner, who somehow turned Lamont Jordan into a 1,000 yard back. Ryan Mathews will have a solid rookie campaign, but I’m not so sure he’ll take over like some expect. Because of that, he is a risk I am not willing to take this early in the draft. The mid-late rounds are the time to roll the dice; this early in the draft is all about reliability and minimizing risk. I’d love to hit a homerun in the first two rounds, but my primarily goal is not to miss. In the new NFL, with dynamic aerial offenses becoming the standard, I am not investing a second round pick in an unproven rookie when studs like Reggie Wayne (ADP 17) and Miles Austin (ADP 21) are still on the board. Note for PPR leagues: Mathews had 19 total receptions in 3 seasons at Fresno State, so don’t be surprised to see him replaced by Darren Sproles on passing downs.  OVERRATED C.J. Spiller (ADP 61, RB 27) He’s a human highlight reel with absurd speed and great ability in space. He reminds me a lot of Reggie Bush, which is both a compliment and a disclaimer. Spiller has the same physical build as Bush, largely the same skill set and a lot of the same limitations to his game. Also like Bush, Spiller will be second on the depth chart behind an undrafted running back whose skills are more suited to being an every-down back. The Bills will move him all over the field to try and get him the ball, and he’ll take on at least some return duties. But Buffalo’s offense is one of the worst in the league, which will limit Spiller’s ability to reach the endzone on a regular basis. Unless you play in a points-per-reception (PPR) league where touchdowns are devalued, Spiller isn’t worth the price. The man ahead of him on the depth chart, Fred Jackson (ADP 76) is going two rounds later, and is a much better value. *Average Draft Picks taken from mockdraftcentral.com Written by Chris Sheehan exclusively for the www.thefantasyfix.com. Chris is an avid football fan and has been playing fantasy football for over ten years. Check back for more great articles from him weekly. Do you agree/disagree that these running backs are over or underrated? Which other players do you feel fit into this category? Leave us a comment or reply to us on Twitter @TheFantasyFix Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Sports Blog, Fantasy Football Advice, Fantasy Football, NFL, ADP, Draft, Ricky Williams, Thomas Jones, Justin Forsett, Rashard Mendenhall, Ryan Matthews, C.J. Spiller, Reggie Bush, Fred Jackson, LaDainian Tomlinson, LaMont Jordan, Reggie Wayne, Miles Austin, Darren Sproles, Norv Turner, Johnathan Dwyer, Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs, Seattle Seahawks, Pittsburgh Steelers, San Diego Chargers, Buffalo Bills, Dallas Cowboys, Indianapolis Colts, Denver Broncos  With catcher John Buck on the 15-day DL, it was the perfect opportunity for the Blue Jays to call up their stud in waiting, J.P. Arencibia. Let's take a quick look at why Blue Jays fans and fantasy owners are getting excited... AAA Line - .306, 30 HR, 77 RBI The former Tennessee Vol was the Blue Jays first round selection in 2007. Arencibia was leading the Pacific Coast League in homers and ranks third in runs driven in at the time of the call-up. He hit .400 in June with 10 home runs and 23 RBI, and followed it up with a .301, 12 HR, 28 RBI July. Oddly enough, 28 of his 30 home runs have come against right-handed pitching. He's batting only .226 in 84 AB against left-handed pitching. Arencibia raised his batting average .70 points from 2009 on the same level of competition. The Jays possess two other top catching prospects in Travis d'Arnaud (21) and Carlos Perez (19), but both are still in A-ball. Written by Adam Ganeles exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Look for Adam's weekly insight into A, AA, & AAA ball. Is J.P. Arencibia capable of being the next Posey or Santana? Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on twitter @TheFantasyFix Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, Fantasy Sports Blog, J.P. Arencibia, John Buck, Travis d'Arnaud, Carlos Perez, Toronto Blue Jays Greeting sports fans, and welcome to this special analysis of the trade deadline moves and their impact on fantasy players. There was a flurry of activity leading up to the July 3rd non-waiver deadline with some teams taking advantage to improve their teams, while others stood by idly and didn’t make any moves. The rampant rumors of Jayson Werth, Adam Dunn et al. being moved did not materialize. In any event, there is plenty of impact to fantasy values that will affect a number of players and teams. Here are a few of them…  BIG, BIG WINNERS Matt Capps, RP, MIN The National’s All-Star closer had already racked up 27 saves for the last place club. He will be in line to improve on that number now that he will be closing for a pennant-contending team. Capps has been a great fantasy contributor providing three wins in addition to his 27 saves. He has posted a 39:9 K:BB ratio thus far, along with a more than respectable 2.68 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. The move to Minnesota is a big plus for owners of Capps where his already high fantasy value will get a boost. Drew Storen, RP, WAS The Nationals began the Storen era in Washington by clearing the way to the closers role with the trade of Capps. The word out of Washington was that Storen would share the closing duties with Tyler Clippard and Sean Burnett. But smart money would have Storen closing on a regular basis before season’s end. Storen’s season began on May 17 and to date, he has posted a 2.45 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP and a 28:14 K:BB ratio. He has also contributed with 3 wins out of the ‘pen. Fantasy owners are scrambling to pick up Storen who is number one on the Most Added Players List (ESPN) with a 34.6% ownership. Jake Westbrook, SP, STL The Cardinals acquired Westbrook in the three-team deal which saw Ryan Ludwick get shipped off to San Diego. St. Louis was in desperate need of solidifying the back end of their rotation for a run at the division crown. They have been patching their rotation with an over-the-hill Jeff Suppan and the unimpressive Blake Hawksworth occupying the slots of Kyle Lohse and Brad Penny, both on the DL. Westbrook had been very hittable this season, but began to turn it around after the All-Star Break. In four starts since (25.2 IP) he had a 3.86 ERA and 18:9 K:BB ratio. He gains a good deal of value by moving to a contender and getting to work with Dave Duncan. In his first start for the Cards, he put up the following line: 6 IP/4 H/2ER/1 BB/7 K’s. He’s only owned in 8.3% of fantasy leagues (ESPN). NOT AS BIG, BUT STILL WINNERS Evan Meek/Joel Hanrahan, RP, PIT – Both will see an increase in value with Dotel off to greener pastures. They will share save opportunities going forward, but Meek has the higher ceiling. Brett Wallace, 3B, HOU – After Lance Berkman was shipped to the Yankees, Wallace was acquired from Toronto and will be given a shot to be the everyday 1B. John Jay, OF, STL – Jay seized the OF spot vacated when Ryan Ludwick was traded to SD. He has a .366 BA with 45 hits in 51 games on the season.  BIG, BIG LOSERS Jon Rauch, RP, MIN Mr. Rauch lost most of his fantasy value when Mr. Capps was acquired. After Joe Nathan went down for the season, Rauch stepped in and did an admirable job as the closer for the Twins. He converted 21 out of 25 save opportunities. However, his underlying stats were a little less than impressive – 29 K/43 H in 39 IP and opponents were batting .277 against him. For his career, Rauch has converted only 26 out of 44 save opportunities, not exactly the kind of numbers that instill confidence for a pennant-chasing team. His ownership has plummeted from 98.8% to 66.5% (ESPN) in the last seven days and will continue to drop with every save Capps accrues. Octavio Dotel, RP, LA Dotel is another closer who lost a great deal of value after he was dealt to Los Angeles to solidify the Dodgers’ bullpen. He was able to compile a respectable number of saves, 21 out of 26 opportunities, for a terrible Pirates club. In addition, Dotel posted a better than expected 48:18 K:BB ratio with 35 HA in 41 IP. In LA he will have almost no chance to add to his saves total with Jonathan Broxton firmly entrenched as the Dodgers stopper. Dotel has seen his value take a nose-dive in the last seven days, dropping from 95.6% ownership to 74.1% (ESPN). Jorge Cantu, 1B, TEX As the everyday 1B for FLA, Cantu’s value was significantly higher before his trade to Texas. With the Rangers, Cantu’s role will be reduced to starting primarily against left-handed pitching and pinch-hitting, according to the team. It was originally thought that Cantu would provide a few starts at 2B to fill in for the injured Ian Kinsler, but that was before Texas acquired Christian Guzman for exactly that purpose. His value surely would have increased with 2B eligibility. However, for now Cantu will not have a major impact on fantasy rosters unless his role changes. His ownership has dropped from 92.4% to 85.5% (ESPN) and will continue to drop as long as he’s not in the starting lineup on a regular basis. NOT AS BIG, BUT STILL LOSERS Kosuke Fukudome, OF, CHI – Desperately needed a change of scenery and to escape Lightnin’ Lou’s doghouse. He’s only seen 37 AB’s in July with 2 HR/2 RBI. Miguel Tejada, 3B/SS, SD – His offensive skills were eroding before being acquired by SD. Now that he’s playing at the spacious Petco, you can expect even less… three hits so far in 15 AB’s for the Padres. Kerry Wood, RP, NYY – After his trade to the Yankees, Wood’s chances of winning a ring have significantly increased, but his chances for save opportunities is zilch even if he does stay healthy. *Written by Rosti Satanovsky exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. You can follow him on Facebook or Twitter@TheSportsFariah Who do you think is the BIGGEST WINNER or LOSER? Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on Twitter@TheFantasyFix Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, Fantasy Sports Blog, Trade Deadline, Matt Capps, Drew Storen, Jake Westbrook,Tyler Clippard, Sean Burnett, Ryan Ludwick, Jeff Suppan, Blake Hawksworth, Kyle Lohse, Brad Penny, Evan Meek, Joel Hanrahan, Brett Wallace, John Jay, Jon Rauch, Joe Nathan, Octavio Dotel, Jorge Cantu, Johnathan Broxton, Ian Kinsler, Kosuke Fukudome, Miguel Tejada, Kerry Wood, Washington Nationals, St. Louis Cardinals, Minnesota Twins, Pittsburgh Pirates, Houston Astros, Los Angeles Dodgers, Texas Rangers, Chicago Cubs, San Diego Padres, New York Yankees If you’re scouring the waiver wire in your NL-only league, there may be a few hidden gems that some of the other owners have not stumbled upon or reacted quickly enough to add to their squad. The following is an eclectic mix of top-rated prospects and some others who snuck in the back door to earn enough playing time to be relevant…  Domonic Brown Domonic Brown (OF) – PHI – Owned in 33% of CBS leagues The Phillies’ No. 1 rated, prized prospect will finally get a chance to show his wares at the Major League level after tearing it up in Triple-A Lehigh. At 23 years of age, Brown was hitting at a .392 clip in 51 AB with a gaudy 1.101 OPS. Previous to that, Brown hit .317 in 236 AB for Double-A Reading, with a slightly more modest OPS of .993. In addition, he has 14 SB’s combined this year and has posted double-digit steals in every season of his minor league career. Brown will get the opportunity to play every day since Shane Victorino was placed on the DL with an abdominal strain. If Brown hits like he is capable of hitting, it will be difficult for the Phillies to remove him from the lineup even when Victorino returns. His promotion and impending success also makes the trade of Jayson Werth an inevitability. With a suddenly aging Raul Ibanez hitting a paltry .259/8 HR/48 RBI on the season (.754 OPS good for 45th amongst all NL outfielders, according to MLB.com), their best chance to make the playoffs may be with Brown in the starting lineup regardless.  Josh Thole Josh Thole (C) – NYM - Owned in 2% of CBS leagues Thole has shown enough in capably handling the Mets staff thus far. In addition, he has provided decent offense as a starter and late inning pinch-hitter (.455 BA as a PH). With his performance to date, Thole was able to convince Jerry Manuel to fight to keep him on the roster even though the Mets already had Rod Barajas and Henry Blanco active. Now with the injury to Barajas, he has been thrust into almost full-time starting duty for the Metropolitans. He will handle receiving duties for every pitcher not named Johan Santana or Mike Pelfrey. Thole has never been known to swing a mighty stick, but has posted a .351 BA in 37 AB’s so far this season and an OPS of .975. In his five year minor league career, Thole’s batting average has progressively increased to a high of .328 last year (.817 OPS). His power numbers, or lack thereof, leave a little to be desired but the Mets will surely accept a .300 BA in the bottom third of the lineup. With a lack of any other suitable options, it looks like Thole will get a decent chance to prove that he belongs on regular basis. He may not have to do all that much considering Barajas’s average has dipped to a cool .227 on the season (.186 in July and .150 since the All-Star break).  Logan Morrison Logan Morrison (1B/OF) – FLA – Owned in 11% of CBS leagues Morrison was called up after the shaving cream pie incident gone wrong involving Chris Coghlan. He will immediately step into the LF starting role for the Fish and bat second, according to CBS Sportsline. Morrison posted very nice numbers in Triple-A New Orleans this season – .324 BA and .945 OPS, and has shown excellent plate discipline with a 36:27 BB:K ratio (minors career – 226:280). This sort of control seems to be his calling card since he’s only tallied 52 HR’s in 1581 minor league AB’s (1 HR/30 AB’s). Due to Coghlan’s injury, Morrison will get a nice long look from the club. Also, with Cody Ross likely to be moved at the impending trade deadline, Florida will be left short on capable OF’s.  Neil Walker Honorable Mention: Neil Walker (2B) – PIT - Owned in 18% of CBS leagues .310 BA/.812 OPS – Everyday second base for Pittsburgh showing he can handle the bat and the glove (four errors/.980 fielding % according to MLB.com) Tyler Colvin (OF) – CHC – Owned in 26% of CBS leagues .265 BA/.867 OPS/16 HR’s in only 230 AB’s – playing every day now that Kosuke Fukudome has been phased out and readied for a trade. Chris Johnson (3B) – HOU – Owned in 11% of CBS leagues .327 BA/ .843 OPS/ .347 BA in July and .432 since the All-Star break with an 11 game hitting streak. Joel Hanrahan (RP) – PIT – Owned in 5% of CBS leagues 3.50 ERA/1.03 WHIP/59:14 K:BB ratio in 43.7 IP – 1.64 ERA in July with six straight scoreless appearances (6 IP/0 ER/7 K) – PIT’s closer in waiting once Octavio Dotel is traded at the deadline. *Written by Rosti Satanovsky exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. You can follow him on Facebook or Twitter@TheSportsFariah Got any other NL wire picks? Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on Twitter@TheFantasyFix Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, Fantasy Sports Blog, NL only, The NL Wire, Domonic Brown, Shane Victorino, Jayson Werth, Raul Ibanez, Josh Thole, Rod Barajas, Jerry Manuel, Henry Blanco, Mike Pelfrey, Johan Santana, Logan Morrison, Chris Coghlan, Cody Ross, Neil Walker, Tyler Colvin, Chris Johnson, Joel Hanrahan, Octavio Dotel, Kosuke Fukudome, Chicago Cubs, Pittsburgh Pirates, Houston Astros, Florida Marlins, New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies  Domonic Brown The time has come again as yet another phenom is set to introduce himself to the baseball world. Outfield super-prospect Domonic Brown will finally get his long awaited opportunity to shine in the City of Brotherly Love. His promotion to the big club does not yet signal a changing of the guard, but rather a move necessitated by injury. Starting center fielder Shane Victorino landed on the 15-day DL earlier today with an abdominal strain. Despite getting the call, the injury to Victorino could easily be viewed as detrimental for Brown. The trading of outfielder Jayson Werth is now a near impossibility, which in turn means Brown's major league stint is likely to be short-lived. When Victorino returns, the same trio of experienced outfielders will be blocking his path to regular at bats. Raul Ibanez has picked up the slack in July hitting .325 with 12 RBI, and despite hitting only .241 since June 1st, Shane Victorino and bench will never be synonymous. But let's not overlook one all-important possibility: Domonic Brown blowing away the Phillies brass with his exceptional talent and dynamic play on the field. If he hits .400 with a couple of bombs, steals some bags and re-energizes the club, sending him back to Lehigh Valley sure won't be easy. GM Ruben Amaro would be put in an unenviable spot with that decision on his hands, and it’s not implausible to think he’ll have to face that decision head on. Brown, the number one rated prospect according to Baseball America, was originally the 607th selection in the 20th round of the 2006 amateur draft. The Phillies took a flyer on Brown's raw potential, and are about to be rewarded beyond their wildest dreams back in '06. You reap what you sow, and the Phils earned it with great scouting work. The definition of a tools player, Brown can impact the game and fantasy lineups, in a multitude of ways. He can hit for average, batting at least .291 in his last four minor league seasons. He's taken it up a notch in AAA, batting .346 in 28 games. He gets on base, having drawing 37 BB in 2010 for a .391 OBP. He can run, stealing 22 bases in '08, 23 in '09 and 17 thus far in '10. At 6'5, he continues to grow into his frame and develop his power stroke. Prior to this year his previous season high for HR was 14. Through 93 games in '10, he's hit 20. His previous season high for RBI was 64. He’s already knocked in 68 runs in ‘10. Dynasty league owners know that the “Total Package” has long since been stashed away. But Brown is still available in a decent number of straight keeper leagues, and owned in less than 50% of re-draft leagues. While his major league timetable in 2010 is a relative unknown, the risk is certainly worth the reward. Worst case scenario: two weeks of an ultra-talented player in a loaded lineup. Best case scenario: he tears the cover off the ball and forces the Phillies hand. While the latter is an unlikely outcome, when talking about a skilled athlete like Brown, nothing is out of the question. Written by Adam Ganeles exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Adam writes like most people breathe... effortlessly. The Fantasy Fix salutes him! Think Domonic Brown will force the Phils hand? Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on Twitter@TheFantasyFix Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, Fantasy Sports Blog, Injury, Domonic Brown, Philadelphia Phillies, Shane Victorino, Jayson Werth, Raul Ibanez, Ruben Amaro, Baseball America, 15-day DL  Logan Morrison Just when you thought you've seen it all. BAM! The latest injury: a torn meniscus during the now common celebratory pie to the face. That is the unfortunate fate suffered by the pie giver, Marlins OF Chris Coghlan. There is no question this ranks amongst the most bizarre/embarrassing injuries of all time, but how does it impact fantasy circles? After a red hot .377 and 30 R June, Coghlan reverted back to his April form in July hitting .209 with one RBI. He'll miss six to eight weeks, but regardless, his deficient production and wild inconsistency made him a nearly unreliable fantasy option in thinner leagues. The Marlins have promoted sterling prospect Logan Morrison to the big club to replace Coghlan on the active roster. A 1st baseman by trade, Morrison's 2010 call up had been thwarted to this point by the excellent play of Gaby Sanchez. At one time trading Sanchez to clear the path for Morrison seemed like a viable option for the Marlins, but that seems farfetched now with his .301, 11 HR, 45 RBI stat line. Sanchez played some third base in the minors, and a return to the hot corner could be entertained — but not mid-season. Morrison is expected to split time in left field with Emilio Bonifacio in the immediate future. If Jorge Cantu is dealt prior to the 31st deadline, Bonifiacio could be moved to 3B and open regular playing time in the outfield. Morrison played 7 games in the OF for AAA New Orleans prior to Coghlan's injury, so expect the Marlins to be wheelers and dealers this week. Morrison is an excellent athlete for his size (6'3, 235), but it's unclear whether he can hold his own defensively in the OF. One thing that is abundantly clear is his mastery in the batter's box. Morrison was hitting .307 with six HR and 45 RBI in the PCL prior to getting the call. He injured his shoulder (collision) in May and has played in just 68 games. He's incredibly seasoned for a 22-year old, drawing 48 walks against only 35 strikeouts. A left-handed stick, he hit .314 in 70 AB against left-handed pitching. If the numbers are any indication, Morrison should make a swift adjustment to big league pitching. Bottom Line: 1. Coghlan is not in danger of losing a starting job when healthy. Despite his on/off play in '10, he possesses excellent bat control and provides versatility defensively. He can see time at 2B/3B and LF. However, none of these qualities help the fantasy owner. 2. If Morrison hits, he's going to play. Bonifacio was wallowing in the minors for good reason. He provides a speed element, but his plate discipline, or lack thereof, will be exposed over the course of regular AB's. He has yet to draw a BB in '10. The Fish didn't call up Morrison to sit and disrupt his maturation. 3. Who bats leadoff when Bonifacio sits? Does Hanley occupy that spot? If so, this injury could have a confounding effect on his fantasy value and run production. 4. Roster assembly issues likely won't come into play until 2011. The aftermath of the trade deadline could change matters, but it's a good bet Sanchez will be taking grounders at third base come spring training. Written by Adam Ganeles exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Adam is the epitome of awesome and anyone who doubts it can take it up with him personally on any street corner at any time. Think Logan Morrison can make it in the BIGS? Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on Twitter@TheFantasyFix Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, Fantasy Sports Blog, Injury, Pie to the Face, Chris Coghlan, Logan Morrison, Jorge Cantu, Gaby Sanchez, Emilio Bonifacio, Florida Marlins  Chris Carter Surveying the AAA ranks in the International and Pacific Coast Leagues – from the power bat of Chris Carter to the newly minted relief arm of Aroldis Champman. Plus the New York Yankees phenom, Jesus Montero, is starting to heating up! POSITION PLAYERS Chris Carter, 1B Oakland AAA Line – .237, 15 HR, 54 RBI There is no questioning the pop in his bat. Carter hit 39 HR in A ball in '08 and hit 28 HR between AA and AAA last season. He's displayed good patience at the plate, drawing 42 walks (85 in '09). The strikeouts, albeit, are alarming. He K'd 133 times last season, and has already whiffed 91 times in 76 games this year. When behind in the count he's hitting .151 with 40 K's, which means he's quite pitchable. I for one have had enough of Jack Cust, and would love to see Carter get a shot with the big club. Yonder Alonso, 1B Cincinnati AAA Line – .230, 3 HR, 21 RBI The 2008 #7 overall selection has struggled with his promotion to the International League. After posting a 19:16 BB to K ratio in 31 AA games, his current 10:33 ratio is a complete reversal. A LHH, he's struck out 26 times against RHP, and only seven times in 55 AB against LHP. He's sporting a .272 OBP in 45 games. Alonso is not flashing power either, with six combined HR's between the two levels (76 games). He's slugging .328 in AAA. Unless he's a trade piece, it's difficult to see the light at the end of the tunnel with Votto in his path. Jesus Montero, C NY Yankees AAA Line – .251, 6 HR, 31 RBI It took a while, but Montero is starting to mash. To put things in perspective: he had three homers and 21 RBI in the season's first two months -- he has three HR and 8 RBI in his last nie games. Eight of his 17 doubles have come in the month of June. Standing at 6'4, and with stalwart defender Austin Romine also in the system, Montero seems destined for a position change. Josh Bell, 3B Baltimore AAA Line – .260, 8 HR 38 RBI Another power bat with too many K's in it. The switch hitting Bell averages a strikeout per game on the season, and has K'd 14 times in his last 10. This is not startling news, as he struck out 98 times in two AA stops last season. However, the precipitous drop in walks is worrisome. He's drawn only 18 BB in 72 games, as opposed to 61 BB in '09. On a positive note, Bell has shown enhanced focus in RISP situations, hit .304 and driving in 30 of his 38 runs. The O's certainly have no use for Tejada, maybe he'll find his opportunity by default. Allen Craig, OF St. Louis AAA Line – .306, 9 HR, 55 RBI After a strong showing in spring training, the 25 year old Craig broke camp with the big club. Unfortunately, his stay was short lived as he collected just one base hit in 18 AB. He's been tearing up the PCL since. In 27 June games, he's batting .336 with 11 doubles, seven HR and an eye popping 35 RBI. His June OPS is 1.044, and he has 14 RBI in his last ten games. Craig is hitting .366 in 71 AB with RISP. He can flat out rake, but there's simply no room for him in a stacked Cardinal OF. Michael Taylor, OF Oakland AAA Line – .249, 3 HR, 38 RBI Taylor was the centerpiece of the Roy Halladay deal for Toronto, and then sent to Oakland for Brett Wallace. At 6'6 260, he's an absolute mammoth of a man, but possesses incredible athletic gifts. Not many people his size can run and play the outfield. He stole 15 bases in '08, 21 in '09 and eight thus far in 2010. He's a real threat to leg out a triple as well. The A's are still waiting on his power at the AAA level (.378 SLG %). Taylor is hitting .343 with RISP. At 24, he's still raw with a definite learning curve – but the skills are there. Brandon Allen, 1B Arizona AAA Line – .259, 8 HR, 33 RBI Allen is showing great plate discipline, drawing nearly as many walks (41) as he has hits (43). Despite his average, his OBP is .411. His previous high for BB in a minor league season is 60 in AA '08. In his 100 AB stint with the Diamondbacks last September, Allen hit .202 with four HR, and 12:40 BB to K ratio. He has a long swing and not a particularly swift bat. He will likely always struggle to make contact at the higher level. But when he does connect, it can go a long way. If the D'backs deal LaRoche, he'll play 1B. PITCHERS Aroldis Chapman, SP/RP Cincinnati AAA Line – 5-5, 4.06 ERA, 81 K The Reds have made the decision to use Chapman out of the bullpen for the remainder of 2010. However, the plan is still to groom him as a starter in the future. On the season Chapman has 81 K's in 68 2/3 innings, but with those strikeouts also come 41 BB. LHH are hitting .241 against him. After producing a 1.29 ERA in four April starts, he pitched to a 5.47 ERA in May and 5.09 thus far in June. Daniel Hudson, SP Chicago White Sox AAA Line – 10-3, 3.83 ERA, 97 K Hudson has put up stunning K:BB ratios at every minor league stop. 90:22 in Rookie ball, 166:34 between A, AA and AAA in '09, and 97 to 27 this season. Hudson's fastball is in the low-mid 90's with good location and his trademark pitch is his changeup. Hudson made two big league starts last season, compiling 11 IP, 7 hits, 3 ER, 8 K's and an ugly nine walks. With the resurgence of Freddy Garcia (sort of), I suppose he'll have to wait for his time. Tanner Scheppers, RP/SP Texas AAA Line – 1-0, 2.86 ERA, 39 K After 11 innings of 3 hit 1 run ball as a reliever in AA (.079 BAA), the Rangers are now trying to stretch Scheppers out in AAA. He's yet to throw more than four innings in any of his four starts. In 15 2/3 IP he's allowed 14 hits, 7 ER, K'd 12 and walked four. Scheppers is a power pitcher with a mid 90's fastball and a hard breaking curve, but lacks a 3rd pitch. He's suffered with shoulder problems in the past. Josh Lindblom, SP LA Dodgers AAA Line – 2-1, 6.25 ERA, 49 K Lindblom made a powerful impression during spring training, but his first half of 2010 has been rocky to say the least. In 10 games as a starter, opposing batters are hitting .349. He's given up an unfathomable 80 hits in 51 innings. His GO/AO ratio is 0.84. His last 6 appearances have come in relief, where he's been far more effective. He's allowed six hits and one run in eight relief innings. The Dodgers view him as a starter, but priority numero uno is getting him straightened out. Brandon Erbe, SP Baltimore AAA Line – 0-10, 5.73 ERA, 50 K Consistency has been a problem for Erbe in his young career, but he's been consistently awful in 2010. For a pitcher with his 'stuff' to go 0-10 is hard to believe, but the numbers don't lie. He's given up 86 hits in 70 2/3 innings and his BAA is .294. He's had difficulty getting the ball down in the zone, and thus has given up 11 HR and his GO/AO ratio is 0.75. Now for some good news, he's only allowed three ER in his last ten innings of work... I'll go out on a limb and say he gets a W before the All-Star break. Anthony Slama, RP Minnesota AAA Line – 14 Saves, 1.42 ERA, 49 K The 26 year old Slama is a proven closer at the minor league level. He finished with 14 saves in '07, 25 in '08 and 29 in '09. His strikeout figures have been off the charts, K'ing 110 in 71 innings in '08 and 112 in 81 innings in '09. However, command has been problematic. He walked 40 in '09 and 21 in 44 1/3 innings to this point in 2010. Opposing batters are hitting a rather ludicrous .122 off him this year. If he can harness his control, he'll be in the show-- but likely in middle relief. NOTES Alex Presley, OF Pittsburgh – The diminutive Presley hit .350 in the Eastern League before his call up to AAA. In just his third game with Indianapolis, he hit for the cycle, going five for six with a HR. An eighth round pick in 2006, Presley has never been classified as a major prospect (likely because of his size), but he's making serious waves now. Aaron Poreda, SP San Diego – The 6'6 lefty reliever was promoted to AAA after posting a 2.52 ERA and 1.50 GO/AO ratio in AA. It should be noted that despite those impressive numbers, he did walk 26 batters in 25 innings. In 11 1/3 innings in the PCL he's given up three hits and yet to allow a run. But once again, the seven walks are holding him back. Written by Adam Ganeles for The Fantasy Fix. Check back weekly for Adam's awesome insight on MLB and MiLB Fantasy Baseball! We'd love to hear your thoughts on AAA ball. Hit us up on Twitter. Twitter.com/thefantasyfix Tags: MiLB, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, The Fantasy Fix, Featured Blog, Minor League Baseball, A, AA, AAA, The Farm Report MLB, NL, AL, Yonder Alonso, Chris Carter, Jesus Montero, Josh Bell, Allen Craig, Michael Taylor, Brandon Allen, Daniel Hudson, Tanner Scheppers, Josh Lindblom, Brandon Erbe, Aroldis Chapman, Anthony Slama, Alex Presley, Aaron Poreda, San Diego Padres, Pittsburgh Pirates, Minnesota Twins, Cincinnati Reds, Baltimore Orioles, Los Angeles Dodgers, Texas Rangers, Chicago White Sox, Arizona Diamondbacks, Oakland Athletics, St. Louis Cardinals, New York Yankees |
