2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Advice & Analysis
 
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Grant Green
Player reports from Advanced A & A ball. Deep keeper and dynasty owners circle these names.

POSITION PLAYERS 
Grant Green, SS Oakland Advanced A Line – .320, 5 HR, 30 RBI 
The A's 2009 first round pick has not disappointed in his first full season of pro ball. A .359 career hitter at USC, his quick adjustments at the plate have been impressive. Lefties are not getting him out, collecting 33 knocks in 76 AB (.434). He's slugging .466 with 18 doubles and three triples. He is red hot in June hitting .381 with three HR and 11 RBI. Grant will turn 23 in September, but his ceiling is still quite high. A quick advance through the ranks seems likely. 

Engel Beltre, CF Texas Advanced A Line – .326, 5 HR, 32 RBI  
After hitting .227 in the California League in '09, Beltre has restructured his approach this season. He's raised his BA nearly 100 points and his K rate is way down. He's struck out 29 times in 233 AB (1 per 8 AB). Last year he went down on strikes every 4.6 AB. After hitting .233 in April, he's responded with a .347 May and .436 June. His SB total is down, with 7 swipes in 13 attempts. Perhaps it's finally starting to click for the talented outfielder.  

Anthony Gose, OF Philadelphia Advanced A Line – .268, 2 HR, 13 RBI  
Gose has the potential to absolutely wreck a game with his speed. He stole 76 bags in '09 and has 24 this year. His caught stealing totals are alarming, however, being thrown out 19 times in '10. He also has 10 triples. His 72 strikeouts in 272 AB need to be cut down. Gose is still very raw at the plate, but he's shown a willingness to work counts and a take a free pass (23). With his incredible athletic gifts, it's difficult to put a ceiling on this 19 year old.  

Eric Hosmer, 1B Kansas City Advanced A Line – .356, 3 HR, 42 RBI  
Hosmer underwent LASIK surgery in the off-season and the 2008 #3 pick has come back a new hitter in '10. He's raised his BA 115 points from the .241 he posted last year. His BB:K ratio is an outstanding 33 to 27. Last season that ratio was 53 to 90, at the exact same level. While he's only connected on 3 dingers, he's still slugging .529, with 24 doubles and 6 triples. The LHH Hosmer is hitting .376 in 93 AB versus LHP, including an 11:10 BB to K ratio. Unlike last season, he's seeing the ball scary well. He's too classy to remain at this level.  

Brett Jackson, CF Chicago Cubs Advanced A Line – .298, 4 HR, 33 RBI  
Jackson has begun to light it up. He's batting .333 in June with 2 HR and 17 RBI, and over his last ten he's at .400 with 2 HR and 14 RBI. On the season he's sporting a .471 SLG% with 16 doubles and 7 triples. After drawing 31 BB in '09, he's already up to 42 in '10. His OBP is a robust .408. Jackson has good wheels as well, swiping 12 in 18 tries.  

Mike Trout, CF LA Angels Class A Line – .370, 6 HR, 35 RBI  
Trout is putting up video game type numbers. He's slugging .553 with 15 doubles and 7 triples. His OBP is .449 with a 33:39 BB to K ratio. He's hit at least .355 in every month. This after hitting .352 between Rookie ball and A ball last season. He's on absolute tear. And his prowess doesn't end with the bat, he's stolen 34 bases (6 CS) in 66 games. Trout has 21 hits in 50 AB (.420) with RISP. What else does he have to prove in the Midwest League? 

Aaron Hicks, CF Minnesota Class A Line – .256, 5 HR, 22 RBI  
The unanimous top prospect in A ball. Hicks possesses all the tools scouts drool over, including a 93-95 MPH fastball, but he chose the route of the position player. The switch hitter is blessed with excellent patience and a feel for the strike zone. He drew 41 BB in 251 AB in '09 and 48 in 238 AB thus far in '10. So despite his pedestrian average, his OBP is .378. He's still a work in progress with the stick, thus his relatively low production numbers. Hicks is unpolished on the base paths as well, being CS 8 times against 6 SB. Patience is a virtue.. 

Wilmer Flores, SS New York Mets Class A Line – .278, 7 HR, 44 RBI  
At only 19 years of age, Flores is in his third season in the Mets system. His plate discipline is much improved. After recording a 22:72 BB to K ratio in 2009, he's already drawn 23 walks in 2010. He's flashing more power as he continues to grow into his 6'3 frame. He's driven in 44 runs in 66 games, compared to 36 in 125 games last season.  

William Myers, C Kansas City Class A Line – .287, 10 HR, 43 RBI  Myers is slugging .502 (16 doubles) and has drawn 45 walks for a .408 OBP. Seven of his ten HR have come with runners on base, and he's batting .361 with RISP. His OPS is 1.083 in June and 1.118 over his last ten games. Myers provides speed at the catcher position with 9 thefts.  

PITCHERS 

Aaron Miller, SP LA Dodgers Advanced A Line – 2-4, 2.77 ERA, 75 K 
On the same minor league club with arms Ethan Martin and Nathan Eovaldi, Miller is taking center stage. In 74 2/3 innings he's allowed merely 53 hits and opponents are hitting .201 against him. A left handed pitcher, he's held RHH hitters to a .190 mark. Command a bit shaky, issuing 35 free passes. Walked six in five innings on June 9th. He features a fastball that cuts in on right handers and a sharp slider. Terrific athlete, was projected as an OF out of High School.  

Julio Teheran, SP Atlanta Advanced A Line – 3-1, 1.38 ERA, 49 K  The 19-year old Teheran has absolutely blown away the SAL and Carolina Leagues. In 78 1/3 combined innings he's allowed just 11 ER. In 39 innings in '10, he's given up 31 hits, walked seven and struck out 49. He's pitching to a 1.38 ERA, and has surrendered one run or less in four of six GS. In his last start, on June 16th, he went seven innings allowing two hits, two BB and striking out 12. Fragility and stamina have been concerns with his 150 pound frame. The ball explodes out of his hand, topping out at 98 MPH.  

Matt Moore, SP Tampa Bay Advanced A Line – 3-7, 5.13 ERA, 98 K  Moore is having an interesting 2010 campaign. He's given up 69 hits in 73 2/3 innings, and struck out a staggering 98 batters. The problem is he's lost seven games and his ERA is over five. Why? Look no further then the base on ball. Moore has walked 40 batters, or one batter every 1.8 innings. Success is difficult to come by when you're constantly in the stretch. Moore walked 70 in 123 innings in '09, so this is not foreign territory. If he wants to move up the chain, he needs to start throwing strikes.  

Shelby Miller, SP St. Louis Class A Line – 1-3, 4.79 ERA, 56 K 
The Cards 2009 first round selection has four potentially plus pitches, but he needs refinement. When Miller makes mistakes they're getting hit (44 hits in 41 1/3), but when he makes his pitches A ball hitters won't get a sniff (56 K). His 1.37 GO/AO ratio and two HR allowed are encouraging. His 15 BB (one every 2.7 innings) is not. Right handed batters are hitting Miller at a .290 clip.   

Tyler Matzek, SP Colorado Class A Line – 0-0, 2.28 ERA, 27 K  The Rockies 11th overall pick in 2009 has made a powerful impression in his first five professional starts. In 23 2/3 innings, the left hander has given up 17 hits and opposing batters are hitting .207 against him (LHH .150). His fastball sits in the mid 90's. He's been touted for his pitching intelligence at a young age and should be a quick riser. Matzek's command has been shaky early on (16 BB).  

Kyle Heckathorn, SP Milwaukee Class A Line – 5-4, 2.34 ERA, 55 K  After a rough 6.04 ERA in six Pioneer League starts in '09, Heckathorn has been dazzling this season. In nine GS, he's worked to a 2.19 ERA in 53 1/3 innings, allowing 44 hits and walking just 11. The 6'6 right hander is holding lefties to a .188 average, and all batters to a .216 mark. His GO/AO ratio is a spectacular 2.59 as a starter thanks to a good sinking fastball. 

NOTES 
Jason Kipnis, 2B Cleveland – Kipnis was promoted to AA after posting a .300, 6 HR, 31 RBI line at the Advanced A Carolina League. He’s hitting .355 with a 1.090 OPS in eight games.  

Tyler Chatwood, SP LA Angels – Chatwood recorded an 8-3 mark with a 1.77 ERA in 13 California League starts. His GO/AO ratio was 2.93. In his first AA start he was bombed for eight hits and six runs in 2 2/3 innings.  

Arodys Vizcaino, SP Atlanta – The 19 year old from the Dominican Republic was promoted from the SAL, where he went 9-3 with a 2.34 ERA, to Advanced A ball. In two starts since the step up in competition, he’s lasted 8 2/3 combined innings, allowing 13 hits, six ER, striking out seven and walking three.  

Written by Adam Ganeles for The Fantasy Fix. Check back weekly for Adam's awesome insight on MLB and MiLB Fantasy Baseball!

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Tags: Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Sports Blog, The Fantasy Fix, A Ball, Minor Leagues, The Farm Report, Grant Green, Engel Beltre, Anthony Gose, Eric Hosmer, Brett Jackson, Mike Trout, Aaron Hicks, Wilmer Flores, William Myers, Aaron Miller, Julio Teheran, Matt Moore, Shelby Miller, Tyler Matzek, Kyle Heckathorn, Jason Kipnis, Tyler Chatwood, Arodys Vizcaino, Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Angels, Cleveland Indians, Milwaukee Brewers, Colorado Rockies, St. Louis Cardinals, Tampa Bay Rays, Los Angeles Dodgers, Kansas City Royals, New York Mets, Minnesota Twins, Chicago Cubs, Philadelphia Phillies, Texas Rangers, Oakland Athletics

 
 
This week's roundtable question is:
 
The Fantasy Fix asked five of the top & up-and-coming Fantasy Experts out there the following question:
As we approach the 2010 All-Star Break who will you be targeting to trade for as a buy-low candidate or sleeper? Name one 1 batter and 1 pitcher that will make a big 180 for the 2nd half. Let's hear some realistic and unique options.
Batter:  Carlos Pena, 1B, TB
My what a disaster Pena's season has been, at least up until his barrage of home runs last week. Trend or slight uptick? I say it should be more trend than mirage.

If you've been paying attention, you already know he is streaky (see last week for example). But what you might not see is that he can't possibly continue to be as horrible as he was in the early going. Let's look at some numbers to date (valid through Wednesday June 9, 2010):
BABIP = .200 (.250 in 2009, .283 in career)
Walk Rate = 13.4% (15.3% in 2009, 13.3% in career)
GB% = 44.1% (29.0% in 2009, 36.2% in career)
FB% = 44.9% (54.1% in 2009, 45.7% in career)
LD% = 11.0% (16.8% in 2009, 18.0% in career)
What does this all mean? Well, since his strikeout rate is right on par with previous performances, it explains a lot. First, his BABIP indicates that he has been very unlucky on batted balls into play. As compared to career numbers, he could be batting up to 50 points above his current .184 on luck alone.

A deeper look at his GB/FB/LD split shows that he is hitting the ball weakly into the infield a ton this year (GB% is a career high and LD% is a career low for him in seasons of 100+ AB). Even a speed demon like Juan Pierre would have trouble getting on base with those splits. The root cause of those symptoms is his Chase Percentage (O-Swing%), or how many pitches outside of the strike zone he is hacking at, which sits at 31.2% (also a career high for seasons of 100+AB). That may be a result of pitchers trying to keep him off balance by throwing more changeups and cutters, rather than fastballs which he can lace into the stands. Since his walk rate is holding steady as compared to career averages, I say it is only a matter of time before Pena settles down and adjusts to the pitching mix. Buy now and get the good part of his season stats on your roster.

Pitcher: Jason Hammel, SP, COL
The Rockies have really improved their rotation over the past few years, and the most under-appreciated member of the starting cast is Jason Hammel. Ignore the ERA he has posted to date, because much of that damage was done back when he was battling a nagging groin injury, the same one that sent him to the DL for a couple of weeks in early May. Now that he is back and healthy, I see nothing but sunny skies ahead.

Hammel actually pitched very well in 2009, despite finishing with a 4.33 ERA. If you look deeper at FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), or what he would have done with even luck and quality fielding across the board, he should have finished with an ERA of 3.71. Curiously enough, his FIP to date is 3.73, almost identical to what he posted last season. Since the start of the 2009 season, he has also fixed problems with gopheritis (0.87 HR/9 over that span, 1.07 in career) and free passes (BB/9 in the 2.55 range, 3.14 in career). For the third stright year, Hammel is forcing groundballs at least 46% of the time a batter makes contact, and he has kept his FB% right around 30%. You can attribute some of this to experience and the rest to his move away from changeups (11.2%, 9.5%, and 5.6% in 2008/2009/2010 to date) to more of a focus on curve balls (10.0%, 15.6%, 16.9%).

Whatever the reason, Jason Hammel has been pitching like a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher for 39 starts now, so it's time to give the kid his due. The best part is that he can be had for a waiver claim in the majority of leagues, so the price is most certainly right!

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Tommy Landry
Co-founder of RotoExperts.com, has a long track record of success in entrepreneurship, marketing, and the fantasy sports business. He now maintains multiple web properties, Return On Now (http://ReturnOnNow.com/) focused on social media, marketing, entrepreneurship, and sports; and RotoTommy's Fantasy Sports (http://RotoTommy.posterous.com) focused strictly on fantasy sports analysis and strategy. You can also join in the conversation with him on Twitter at http://Twitter.com/Tommy_Landry

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Batter:  Aaron Hill, 2B, TOR

Hill was a guy I earned a lot of money on last year.  The problem is that I got him for $1 in keeper leagues so there was no way I could let him go.  Knowing this, I knew he was a classic stay away guy in 2010 because of the overachievement.  What killed Hill was the hamstring injury right off the bat.  Some of Hill’s fantasy #’s are very ugly and scream stay away.  But if you dig deeper and look at why Hill has been so bad this year here is what you will find:
 
    •    Contact Rate 83% (only a matter of time before they become base hits)
    •    Walk rate is up from 5.7% to 11.7% (very good indicator of improved patience)
    •    BABIP is .178 vs. .288 last year (terrible luck)
    •    BA is .188 vs. .286 last year (BABIP and BA correlation)
    •    FB % up to 49% vs. 41% last year
 
2B is very deep in the American League and in the majors overall.  Hill could be a guy you use at UTIL/MI and great insurance.
 
I think right now is the perfect time to get Hill and you can still get him very cheap.  Buy now and
speculate that his 2nd half numbers turn around.
 
Pitcher: Brandon Morrow, SP, TOR
It feels like Morrow has been around for 10 years and every year we wait for the breakout.  He never got a true shot to settle into a rotation spot with Seattle and then was dealt to Toronto in the Cliff Lee/Roy Halladay deal.  Going with pitchers in the AL East is always a tough choice, but again like Hill there are some underliers that show me Morrow could be on his way to truly developing into that fantasy relevant pitcher.
 
    •    K/9 10.41 – always love guys who get the k’s
    •    .341 BABIP – this number is bound to settle in at .290.-.300
    ◦    June has a .254 BABIP
    •    5.48 ERA but XERA 3.53
    •    4.52 BB/9 – this # has to come down for Morrow to start being a good pitcher
    ◦    June has a 1.29 BB/9
 
I recently added Morrow in 2 leagues that have deep pitching requirements and I love the upside.  In the past guys like Jonathan Sanchez and Jorge De La Rosa have had similar profiles and finally broke through.
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Michael Rathburn
Fantasy Baseball writer for MidWestSportsFans.com and
www.aroundthecooler.com. Follow Michael at http://twitter.com/cooler_guy

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Batter: Adam Lind, OF, TOR
Highly touted coming into this year (average draft position, 3rd or 4th round) and coming off a monster season that finally saw him put his potential to good use, Lind has so far had a horrendous start to 2010.  .209 average, 8 homeruns, a paltry 26 runs and 31 rbi - all this for the team leading the majors in home runs - and just 49 hits.  Yet, if you look deeper, some of his stats belie how atrocious he has been.  Yes, he is chasing more pitches outside the strike zone than last year.  Yes, he is striking out a slightly higher rate than last year.  Yes, he has shown an alarming drop in power to center field.  BUT.  His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is .247, or nearly 60 points below his career BABIP of .305.  That's right - SIXTY points.  Aside from his stint with the Jays in 2007, when he proved he was not yet ready for the big time, he has never had a BABIP lower than .317.  In the minors his BABIP routinely reached the .360s and higher. 

I don't expect Lind to hit 25 home runs the rest of the season, but from this point forward I expect that as his luck changes, so do his stats, and for the better.

Pitcher: Jake Peavy, SP, CHW
People forget that he's still not so far removed from major arm surgery, and had to deal with switching leagues, going from a great pitcher's park to one that's horrible, and learn a whole new set of hitters.  I think he'll improve because we've seen flashes - his k/9, bb/9 and GB% (ground ball percentage) have improved month by month this season, and he is still averaging 7.5 K's per 9 innings this year.  Plus, his LOB% is the lowest of his career and his BABIP Is close to the highest - not a good combination to have.  I expect, though, that as his luck starts changing and he leaves more runners on, his K rate will continue to rise, his ERA will fall and he will pitch deeper into games and help himself to more wins.
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Jesse Mendelson is Partner and Senior Writer for www.fantasybaseball101.com
For more up-to-the-minute analysis, trade mediation, roster evaluation, weekly tip, chats, and more, make sure to check out www.fantasybaseball101.com and follow us on Twitter on @fb101

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Batter: Gordon Beckham, 2B, CHW
Gordon Beckam has basically played like garbage and polluted the fantasy landscape thus far. His .206 Batting Average and one Home Run have left a single tear welling in the eye of his owners. Some people have a deep abiding respect for the natural beauty that was once this highly touted prospect; and some people don’t. Gordo is currently owned in only 38% of Yahoo! leagues. If he isn’t a free agent in your league, his recent 102 At Bat streak without an Extra Base Hit should make him a cheap buy. What many people don’t realize is that Beckham has been plagued a .250 BABIP. His 15.5% Line Drive and 51% Ground Ball Percentages suggest this number should be higher. The league average for BABIP is .298.  Beckham has also been unlucky with a 1.9% Home Run to Fly Ball Percentage. The league average for HR/FB% is around 10-11%. The eighth overall pick in the 2008 draft is much too talented to continue hitting this poorly. The White Sox GM, Kenny Williams, sat down with Gordon and told him to go back to his aggressive approach at the plate and he has responded well. Since the two had a pow-wow, Beckham has strung together a 4 game hit streak, going 4 for 13 with 3 doubles in the process. Last season Beckham hit 14 HR and stole 7 bases in 103 games, his price won’t be any lower than it is now. If you need some cheap, productive help at the 2B position, look no further.

Pitcher: Chad Billingsley, SP, LAD
Chad Billingsley is a well known gunslinger. Tickets to Buffalo Billingsley’s Wild NL West Show could be expensive unless you can find an owner who is fed up with his 1.40 WHIP. Billingsley currently ranks 84th among all SP eligible pitchers on Yahoo! and his overall rank of 289 may help you acquire his services at a reasonable price. Chad’s ugly WHIP is not the result of him walking too many batters, he has actually reduced his walk rate from 3.94 BB/9 down to 3.17 BB/9. The issue is his .332 BABIP. He has a career BABIP of .308 and he is actually giving up less Line Drives this year than he has in the past (17.4 LD%). His 1.40 WHIP should be considered bad luck, not bad pitching. He is still striking out eight batters per nine and inducing a good number of ground balls (47.8%, 1.38 GB/FB) so I would also consider his 69.2% Strand Rate to be unlucky. His career average for LOB% is 75.4%. His owners may believe that Billingsley is pitching his worst ball in the past four years, but all this adds up for me to believe that Billingsley should be posting the best numbers of his career when it comes to ERA and WHIP. Look for a big turnaround in the second half of the season.
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Andrew Holm (aka MDS) is the brainchild behind http://milliondollarsleeper.com. Follow Andrew on twitter at http://twitter.com/andrewakamds

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Batter: Aramis Ramirez , 3B, CHC
Aramis Ramirez's season has been a disaster of epic proportions.  The once mighty run producer has seen his numbers washed away by a tsunami of strikeouts and lazy fly balls.  By some measures, he's been the worst regular position player in all of baseball.  Now on the 15-day DL due to a strained thumb, he also hasn't done much to shed the “injury-prone” label that he's earned over the past few years.

Since A-Ram's never had a stretch this bad, I'm willing to assume that the thumb problem has exacerbated his usual slow start.  Sure, he's on the downside of his career, but he's about to turn 32, not 37.  Just last year, he put up a .317 BA with 15 HR and 65 RBI despite playing in just 82 games.  A-Ram's always been a second-half hitter (second half OPS of .870 vs. .807 in the first half), and has always thrived at Wrigley Field (career .918 OPS).

If he comes back healthy for the hot summer months at Wrigley, he should put up a .285+ BA and approach 15 HR and 50 RBI in the second half.  That should be enough to outperform popular third-sackers like Jose Bautista, Scott Rolen, Casey McGeehee, Chase Headley, Placido Polanco, Alberto Callaspo, Juan Uribe, Ty Wigginton, and David Freese.  See if you can lowball his frustrated owner and reap the benefits.

Pitcher: Ricky Nolasco, SP, FLA
After Saturday night's shelling in Tampa Bay, Ricky Nolasco's ERA stands at 5.05 and his strikeout rate is down to 6.6 per 9 innings.  That's a bitter pill to swallow for fantasy owners who looked past his bloated 2009 ERA and drafted him 20th among starting pitchers in ESPN leagues.

Maybe this is deja vu all over again, as Ricky was awful in the first part of 2009, when he was rocked over his first nine starts to the tune of a 9.07 ERA.  He turned his season around after a two-week stint in the minors, and was a true ace over his last 22 starts, with a 3.82 ERA and an elite 10.5 strikeouts per 9 innings.

Unless there's a secret injury, we might just be seeing a mini-repeat of 2009.  He's still in his prime and has shown the ability to lose his mechanics for a stretch and then bounce back.  Perhaps he's turning out to be a second-half pitcher (he also pitched better in the second half of 2008).  See if you can pry him loose from a frustrated owner, and hope that history repeats itself.
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Follow Alex Shear on Twitter (@rotosleeperz) and check out his rarely updated blog at http://rotosleeperz.blogspot.com

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Batter: Chone Figgins, 2B, SEA
2009 was Chone’s BIG contract year, and boy did he not disappoint. Figgins finished the year with 114 Runs, 101 Walks, 42 SBs, & .298 BA from the leadoff spot.  Getting himself a 4 year $36 million contract, and a new city (Seattle) to boot.  Now you’d expect an Allstar caliber player like Chone Figgins to handle a move to a new team like a pro, but after a forgeable first half we are left with some questions.  Let’s take a look at where we are and where it has gone wrong:

In his first 6 full seasons (2004-2009) Chone averaged:  44 SBs, 92.7 Runs, 52.2 RBIs, 162 Hits, .291 AVG

Now for a prototypical leadoff hitter these numbers are some of the tops in the sport. One of the things I preach the most is that baseball is a game of averages. If you look back over 5 years certain trends will appear for the better players. Now I understand that Chone is facing some different circumstances than before; batting now in the 2 hole (behind Ichiro), & becoming an everyday second baseman. But you can expect a monster 2nd half as he becomes more comfortable with his roles, teammates, and city.

Bottom Line 2nd Half Expectations
Current 2010 1st Half:  ABs- 220, BA -.227, Hits – 50, RBIs -16 Runs – 26, SB – 13
Projected 2nd Half:  ABs – 400, BA - .300, Hits – 120, RBIs – 30, Runs – 75, SB - 25

Pitcher: Gavin Floyd, SP, CHW
It's been a rough, and altogether puzzling first half for White Sox starter Gavin Floyd. His staggering 6.18 ERA is the 2nd highest in MLB among pitchers with at least 50 IP. In 206 1/3 innings in 2008 he allowed 190 hits. In 193 innings in 2009 he allowed 178 hits. Through 67 innings of work in 2010, he's allowed 84 hits. The usually tough to square up Floyd is finding too many barrels.
 

What's gone wrong:  Right handed hitters are batting .306 against Floyd. The same RHH he held to a .256 clip in '09 and .226 in '08. When he gets himself into a jam, he's not escaping free of harm. He's allowed 26 ER in RISP w/2 out situations through 12 starts, compared to 35 ER all of last season. His LOB% is a dismal 62.6%. His BAA on balls put in play (BABIP) is .369, an obscenely high frequency of success for opposing hitters. Compare that figure to .268 in '08 and .292 in '09. Floyd is throwing more changeups and less curveballs, a recipe that doesn't seem to be paying dividends.
Why things just don't add up: He's averaging 7.66 K/9 innings, the highest figure of his career. He's only allowed 7 HR, or 0.94 HR/9, his lowest gopher ball rate at the major league level. His ground ball rate of 46.6% is also the highest he's ever produced. His average fastball velocity has been 92.1 MPH, over a mile per hour higher (90.9) than he threw in his 17 win campaign in 2008.
 

Despite his abysmal numbers, there is reason for optimism. Floyd has delivered only 4 quality starts all season, and 3 of those QS came in his last 4 outings. In those 3 QS he K'd 20 against only 5 BB in 19 1/3 innings. He did throw in a 2 2/3 6 ER disaster in between those starts, but we're trying to accentuate the positive. His line drive % is down, so eventually those groundballs with eyes will find some gloves. With a bit of good fortune and improved run prevention in RISP situations, Floyd's numbers should slowly creep back towards his traditional pitching line. He makes for a great buy low option (if he's not on the waiver wire) and should be solid piece for fantasy rotations in the second half.

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Pitcher written by Adam Ganeles  for The Fantasy Fix. Follow Adam here weekly or on twitter http://twitter.com/adamganeles. Batter written by DP (aka Fantasy Mechanic) for The Fantasy Fix, there's a reason why he wins championships every year.

Tags: Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Sports Blog, The Fantasy Fix, All-Star Game, All-Star Break, Carlos Pena, Aaron Hill, Brandon Morrow, Jason Hammel, Gordon Beckham, Chad Billingsley, Aramis Ramirez, Ricky Nolasco, Chone Figgins, Gavin Floyd, Tampa Bay Rays, Toronto Blue Jays, Seattle Mariners, Colorado Rockies, Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, Florida Marlins, Tommy Landry, Rotoexperts.com, Michael Rathburn, Midwestsportsfan.com, Andrew Holm, milliondollarsleeper.com, Alex Shear, rotosleeperz, Jesse Mendelson, fantasybaseball101.com
 
 
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Madison Bumgarner
Key player notes from AAA's International and Pacific Coast Leagues. Who's moving on up and who's failing to distinguish themselves?

POSITION PLAYERS
Michael Brantley , OF Cleveland- AAA Line .281, 1 HR, 11 RBI
With Grady Sizemore sidelined for the year following knee surgery, a spot appears to have opened up for Brantley. But where has Brantley's speed gone? After stealing 46 bases in 116 games at AAA Columbus in 2009, he's swiped only 5 bags in 36 games in 2010. He's not even attempting to run, only being caught twice. It should also be noted that he didn't attempt a stolen bases in 9 games with the big club earlier this season. Brantley hit .313/0/11 in '09 in 112 major league AB, and .156/0/3 in 32 AB in '10 before his demotion.

Pedro Alvarez
, 3B Pittsburgh- AAA line .278, 11 HR, 47 RBI
Alvarez, the Buccos #2 overall pick in the 2008 First-Year Player Draft, is showing serious pop at the highest minor league level. He's compiled 12 doubles, 3 triples and 11 HR for a .527 SLG %. After struggling early on against left-handed pitching, Alvarez has picked up the pace. His .286 BA in 56 AB against LHP now sits higher than .275 BA in 149 AB versus RHP. He can't be too far from the majors with Andy LaRoche and his .317 OBP and .349 SLG in his path. There's also a possibility Garret Jones will shift to RF and Alvarez will move across the diamond to 1B.

Todd Frazier
, 1B Cincinnati- AAA line .194, 7 HR, 19 RBI
Talk about struggling with the stick.. Frazier is in a rough place right now. After hitting .292/16/77 in AAA Louisville in 2009, he has just 33 hits and a .266 OBP through 47 games in 2010. The Reds have moved Frazier all over the field defensively, and it could be taking it's toll on his overall game. They may be better suited keeping him in one spot and letting him focus on his ticket to the bigs, his swing.


Desmond Jennings
, CF Tampa Bay- AAA Line .236 0 HR 6 RBI
Jennings missed much of April with a left wrist injury and has not been himself since returning. Jennings numbers are dramatically down from 2009 when he hit .318/11/62 for AAA Durham. In his last 10 games Jennings is batting .175 (7 for 40) with 1 RBI, 11 K and 1 SB. He has been extremely effective on the base paths on the season, stealing 12 while being caught only once. He swiped 52 bags in 59 attempts in '09. Jennings is viewed as the Rays top offensive prospect, but will need to pick up his production to reach the majors.

Jason Castro
, C Houston- AAA Line .279, 1 HR, 18 RBI
Castro's best attribute has been his eye at the plate. He's walked 31 times against just 24 K's for an OBP of .396. However, the pop, in the hitter friendly PCL nonetheless, is sorely missing. He has 1 HR and 7 XBH in 165 AB, and is slugging an unimpressive .333. Castro has done his best work with RISP, hitting .326 and driving in 15 of his 18 runs.

Logan Morrison
, 1B Florida- AAA Line .300, 3 HR, 17 RBI
Gaby Sanchez has been adequate at 1B for the Marlins, but he can't hold off Morrison for long. In 25 games with AAA New Orleans, Morrison is sporting a .400 OBP and .544 SLG. His BB/K ratio is 16/13. In 24 AB with RISP he's raking to the tune of .458. He's also displayed solid top end speed notching 3 triples to go along with his 7 doubles.

PITCHERS

Jake Arrieta , SP Baltimore- AAA line 6-2, 1.85 ERA, 64 K
The O's top pitching prospect is rolling right along in 2010, owning the top ERA in the International League. Opponents are hitting a meager .189 against him, and he's getting 1.43 ground outs to air outs. In his last 3 starts he's thrown 22 innings, allowing 16 hits, 2 ER and striking out 23. Arrieta was scratched from his June 5 start and could be headed to the big club imminently. Snatch him up while you can!

Jeremy Hellickson
, SP Tampa Bay- AAA Line 8-2, 2.28 ERA, 71 K
The power pitching Hellickson leads the AAA IL with 8 wins. He's been real stingy on the mound, not yielding a run in 4 of his last 5 starts. In those 4 starts he's pitched 27 innings, allowed 16 hits and K'd 27. With Wade Davis' ERA now over 5, will Hellickson get the call?

Carlos Carrasco , SP Cleveland- AAA Line: 4-2, 4.68 ERA, 46 K
Now at 23 years of age, Carrasco has still failed to live up to the hype. Prior to being dealt to the Indians, Carrasco made 20 starts for AAA Lehigh Valley in 2009, going 6-9 with a 5.18 ERA. He finished the season strong for AAA Columbus winning 5 of 6 starts with a .319 ERA and allowing only 31 hits in 42 1/3 innings. He has taken a step back once again in early in 2010. He's given up 64 hits in 59 2/3 innings while striking out only 46. Opponents are hitting a comfortable .282 against him, and right handed hitters are hitting .313. On a positive note, Carrasco is getting ground balls with a 1.21 GO/AO ratio.

Madison Bumgarner
, SP San Francisco- AAA Line: 5-1, 2.73 ERA, 43 K
As Todd Wellemeyer continues to get shelled, a logical question arises: where is Madison Bumgarner? The Giants top farmhand has been sharp since two rough starts to open the AAA season, albeit, not in dominating fashion. He's allowed 66 hits in 62 2/3 innings of work and struck out only 43. Nevertheless, Bumgarner's been extremely effective at forcing opponents to pound the ball into the ground. For example: In his May 23rd start vs. Nashville he recorded 14 outs on balls put in play. 12 were recorded on the ground. Despite giving up his 12 hits in 6 2/3 innings in that start, he maneuvered his way through the jams without conceding an earned run.

WHERE'D THEY GO?

Chris Davis, 1B Texas- Davis is hitting .313 with 5 HR and 31 RBI for AAA Oklahoma City in the PCL. He's still striking out too much with a 13/37 BB/K ratio.

Alex Gordon , OF Kansas City- Gordon has been killing the ball in 31 games for AAA Omaha in the PCL. He's batting .371 with 9 HR and 26 RBI. His OBP is a ridiculous .510 and his SLG % is an equally preposterous figure at .662. Keep in mind, Royals GM Dayton Moore said it is unlikely that Gordon will be called up for the remainder of 2010.

Chris Johnson , 3B Houston- Johnson is tearing the cover off the ball for AAA Round Rock: .330, 6 HR and 26 RBI. However, he still refuses to take a BB. He's walked only 5 times in 103 AB, and his OBP is only .24 higher than his BA. With the Astros season nearing an early termination, he'll get the call back up soon. Johnson hit .227/0/2 in 22 AB earlier this year for the 'Stros.

Written by Adam Ganeles for The Fantasy Fix. Check back weekly for Adam's awesome insight on MLB and MiLB Fantasy Baseball!

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Tags: Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, The Fantasy Fix, Featured Blog, Minor Leagues, AAA, The Farm Report  MLB, NL, AL, Michael Brantley, Pedro Alvarez, Todd Frazier, Desmond Jennings, Jason Castro, Logan Morrison, Jake Arrieta, Jeremy Hellickson, Carlos Carrasco, Madison Bumganer, Chris Davis, Alex Gordon, Chris Johnson, Houston Astros, Kansas City Royals, Texas Rangers, San Francisco Giants, Cleveland Indians, Tampa Bay Rays, Baltimore Orioles, Florida Marlina, Cincinnati Reds, Pittsburgh Pirates,