2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Advice & Analysis
The most common representation of a players production is their slash line which consists of Batting Average, Slugging Percentage, and On-Base Percentage. Generally, we look at the players Slugging Percentage as a measure of their ability to get extra base hits and drive in runs. But the formula for Slugging Percentage uses singles, and what kind of power measure includes singles? Any MLB player can slap a ball down for a single from time to time. We want extra base hits because that's what drives in runs and produces the stats that are near and dear to us. SABR recognized this and created a complementary stat to Slugging Percentage which did not account for singles. The formula they came up with was: ISO = (2B + 2*3B + 3*HR)/AB For all of you math nerds out there who passed Algebra II... you may notice that the formula for ISO is Slugging percentage minus Batting Average. The best power hitters in the game will have an ISO around .300 and anyone with an ISO over .200 is hitting for power at a good clip. An ISO below .200 indicates that a vast majority of the players hits are not going for extra bases. When looking at the league leaders in ISO we find a who's who of the big bats in baseball. This year, its no surprise that Jose Batista is lapping the field with a .336 ISO. Trailing Batista is Adam Dunn at .300 and Miguel Cabrera at .290. This isn't very surprising and isn't very helpful, but that's because we're looking at the league leaders. We need to dig a little deeper and find some interesting players. For example, tied with Ryan Howard and Mark Teixeira with a .236 ISO is... Colby Rasmus. Now we've known that Rasmus can hit for power, but it's surprising that he hits at a comparable rate as Howard and Teixeira? If you talk to Fantasy "Experts", they might throw Rasmus' name around in potential 20/20 guys, but it is becoming more and more evident that Rasmus is going to have the power to hit 30 and even 40 Home Runs. Rasmus just turned 24 this month and only has 19 Home Runs this year, but going into next year, make a note that he has tremendous upside power. On the flip side of ISO, take a look at Jorge Cantu. He slots into the middle line-up because he's supposed to have a big bat. If you were standing next to him, you'd expect him to be a power hitter (he looks the part). But if you take a look at his ISO, and talk to his owners, he just doesn't have the power you think he does. He's posting a .138 ISO this year and a career .173 ISO. Sure he can drive in some runs and have nice stretches like he did this spring, but Cantu doesn't hit for as much power as advertised. Even in 2008 when he hit 28 HR and drove in 95, he still only posted a .204 ISO. In the end, the stat is the end all/be all. There is always room for argument. But when you're searching for value out there, ISO is a good reason to bump a player up or knock them down a bit. Someone like Rasmus has more value than his standard stats may suggest and that's what we're looking for when evaluating fantasy value... a little stat like ISO could direct you towards a championship. Written by James Weston for theFantasyFix.com. When James isn't spittin' statistics down on paper he's hacking away at Fantasy apps at http://valuetownfantasy.com You can also find him on Twitter @TheRealJamesA Follow us on twitter @TheFantasyFix Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, Fantasy Sports Blog, ISO, Slugging Percentage, Adam Dunn, Colby Rasmus, Jose Bautista, Mark Teixeira, Ryan Howard, Miguel Cabrera Add Comment Sabermetric Series: BABIP For Dummies 08/04/2010
Batting Average on Balls In Play = (Hits - Home Runs) / (At Bats - Strikeouts - Home Runs + Sacrifice Flies) The purpose of Batting Average on Balls In Play, BABIP, is to add a luck factor which can be used when evaluating players previous production. BABIP is a ratio of plate appearances to the numbers of balls put into play. The result is a ratio similar to Batting Average, however it is measured on a scale which removes home runs and strikeouts. By removing Home Runs and Strikeouts, BABIP measures the numbers of times which a hit fell when a defender had the opportunity to make a play on it. If we agree that defenders will get to balls at the same rate over the long run, then BABIP shows us how lucky or unlucky a player is based on their deviation from the mean. This statistic can be used with both pitchers and hitters, but it has been found to be much more useful in regards to pitching. For hitters, BABIP can be influenced by skill much more than luck. A hitter has the ability to run out infield singles and shoot gaps to influence BABIP. But a pitcher who faces many different hitters, BABIP will fall gravitate to a mean. Research has found that the mean for BABIP is around .300 and the conclusion can be drawn that anyone with a higher BABIP is unlucky (lucky/good for hitters)...lower than .300 and you're lucky (unlucky/bad for hitters). When evaluating pitching, BABIP can be used to explain other statistics like standard 5x5 stats ERA and WHIP. A high BABIP is generally a sign that a pitcher will improve upon their previous production. The higher BABIP means that more hits are falling which have a negative impact on ERA and WHIP. But we expect BABIP to be around .300 and in-order for that to take place, we expect a regression to bring the average to the mean. So to get to .300, there will be a period of low BABIP to account for the higher BABIP in the past. Lets look at some examples How bad was Mike Pelfrey in July? Well to go along with his 10.01 ERA, Pelfrey put up a insane BABIP of .482!!! Seriously, half of the balls which were put into play fell for base hits. There is no way that a rate like that could ever keep going. Even with his amazing start, his BABIP is .342 for the year, so we should expect improvement to finish the season off. But keep in mind that Pelfrey has a career BABIP higher than .300, so it may not be a serious improvement.  Mat Latos On the flip side of BABIP this year is Mat Latos. He has put together a very strong year so far and his BABIP is down to .234. Again, we should expect this rate to trend towards the mean. So should we expect Latos to have a severe downswing? No.... But we should not expect him to keep up the same rates he's produced so far. We should expect his rates to increase from where they are today. If the numbers don't increase.....he's a lucky man. One last thing to take into account when evaluating BABIP is the defense behind the pitcher. Earlier I stated that we need to work with the assumption that defenders will get to balls at the same rate over the long run. However, it is safe to assume that pitchers for teams with good defense have a lower BABIP than a pitcher who is on a team with bad defense. So take that into account when looking at numbers that haven't deviated far from the mean. Use the entire teams BABIP and compare that with the pitchers BABIP to adjust your assumptions. For Fantasy purposes, BABIP is a great tool to use to gauge some hidden value. It can be used to sell high or buy low. On draft day, use BABIP to discount a break out season or to justify an upcoming rebound year. In our game we need all the help we can get, if you're not using BABIP, you're not seeing the whole picture. Have any other good BABIP examples? Leave us a comment or hit us up on Twitter @TheFantasyFix! Written by James Weston exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. You can follow him on Twitter @TheRealJamesA. Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Sports Blog, Fantasy Baseball, Sabermetrics, MLB, BABIP, Mike Pelfrey, Mat Latos, New York Mets, San Diego Padres 2010 Sirius XM Fantasy Football Draft Recap 07/23/2010
SIRIUS XM 2010 CELEBRITY FANTASY FOOTBALL DRAFT Hard Rock Cafe, Times Square NYC by James Weston In the first of many, Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports Radio held their inaugural Fantasy Football draft live in front of 200 fans at the Hard Rock Cafe in New York and broadcast live on their new station. If you have a chance to check it out next year, I would highly recommend going. It has the feel of a real draft with pick by pick analysis by Rich Gannon and a rowdy crowd ready to let you know how they felt about each pick. The league is made up of Sirius/XM hosts Christopher "Mad Dog" Russo, Gary Dell'Abate, Scott Ferrall, Jay Thomas, Jeremy Roenick, Steve Phillips, Maurice Jones-Drew, a team consisting of all hosts from the Morning Mashup Show, as well as four experts in John Hansen, Kyle Elfrink, Scott Engel, and Chris Liss. The odds makers would expect the money to be put on the experts, but it became obvious early that there were some experienced managers in the field and it wasn't going to be an easy league to win.  Gannon, Schein, MJD(credit: SIRIUS XM) Coming into the draft, it was obvious that the most intriguing story line would be the selection of Maurice Jones-Drew, who owned the eighth pick. There was a sense from the pre-draft interviews that owner of the first pick, Gary Dell'Abate was well aware that he could use Jones-Drew as bait to add more value later. However, Dell'Abate used the first ever pick in the Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports Radio Football Draft to select Chris Johnson. Jeremy Roenick used the second pick wisely and locked up Adrian Peterson to anchor his team, unfortunately for the eighteen year NHL vet, it was all down hill from here. Jones-Drew was finally selected by Jay Thomas at number three, Jones-Drew, who had hinted at moving up to the fourth pick pre-draft, immediately started the trade talks. The draft continued to move on while Thomas and Jones-Drew negotiated their deal and with the 4th pick was made by Christopher "Mad Dog" Russo. Mad Dog stayed local and took NY product, Ray Rice with the fourth pick. And the fifth selection went to the John Hansen, the first expert to select, who took Michael Turner. Frank Gore was taken next by expert Kyle Elfrink at number six and The Morning Mashup crew then took the first quarterback off the board when they selected Drew Brees.  Phillips, MJD, Roenick, Russo(credit: SIRIUS XM) In the final terms of the trade between Jay Thomas and Maurice Jones-Drew, Jones-Drew would send his eighth, sixteenth, and 41st picks for himself and the 22nd pick. With six running backs and one quarterback off the board, it appeared that Andre Johnson had the most value on the board. But Thomas would stick with a running back and make Steven Jackson the next player selected. Sports talk host Scott Ferrall was next up at number nine and he also passed on the top Wide Receiver on the board when he selected De'Angelo Williams. Pouncing on his competitors old school picks, the third expert in the field, Scott Engel gladly accepted his early birthday present and made Andre Johnson the tenth pick of the draft. The funniest moment of the first round took place next when Steve Phillips, former Mets General Manager, took Mo Vaughn eleventh. All kidding aside, Phillips took Randy Moss and drew a mixed reaction boos and laughter from the crowd. You could hear boos from the Jets fans and laughs from the Mets fans who felt the Moss pick was a bad one. Then with only one pick left in the first round, the fourth and final expert in the draft, Chris Liss, selected Rashard Mendenhall. Overall the first round was pretty straight forward with the first six picks being top tier running backs and all six managers should feel pretty comfortable with their picks. Andre Johnson stood out as the best available for picks seven through ten, so the best value pick would have to go to Scott Engel at ten. It's hard to go wrong in the first round, but if I had to choose the worst pick of the first round, it would have to go to The Morning Mashup crew. They really showed their inexperience by selecting Brees seventh and it would haunt them through out the rest of the draft when they would not have the same depth they would have had if they sat on a quarterback till the second round at least. My favorite and some interesting picks of the draft Second Round: Jonathan Stewart went seventh to Elfrink who called for a 2000 yard season. Calvin Johnson twelfth to Dell'Abate. Megatron offers a ton of value at 24th overall. Third Round: Roddy White was taken sixth and the twelfth overall Wide Receiver. Another great pick by Elfrink, who was pleasantly surprised to have White waiting for him at his pick. Fourth Round: Steve Smith of the Giants third to Engel was huge when you consider that ten more picks would go by before another wide receiver was taken. Matt Schaub twelfth to Dell'Abate appeared at the time to be an excellent pick and made Dell'Abate's team appear very strong going into the firth round. But after this pick he would stray from value picks and may have taken too many shots on players when there were other more obvious picks on the board. Fifth Round: Somehow Michael Crabtree fell to sixth of the fifth round and 54th overall. Elfrink quickly snatched him up. LeSean McCoy ninth to Ferrall could have saved his team. Sixth Round: Brett Favre third is more interesting than I like it. Engel probably could have waited, but Favre's question marks mean less and less every year. Matt Forte sixth to Jones-Drew is a shock. Forte is the guy in Chicago and he was a top five selection in most drafts last year. Lots of value to MJD Seventh Round: Jeremy Maclin sixth may be more upside than value, another Elfrink pick. Brett Celek eighth and the eighth tight end selected. Big drop off after Celek at his position and MJD recognized that. Eighth Round: Marion Barber ninth to the Mad Dog was interesting. How much do we take away from Barber because of his offense and the competition he has? Considering Felix Jones went in the fifth, Barber in the eighth is a steal. Dez Bryant tenth by Jay Thomas is another interesting upside pick. A little early, but there wasn't a WR with more talent left. Ninth Round: Ben Tate tenth by Scott Engel makes sense. The Texans took Tate 58th overall this spring and will get a chance to win the starting job out of camp. If he does win the job, he'll prove to be one of the best picks in the draft. Tenth Round: Montario Hardesty eighth was another rookie coming into camp with a shot at winning the starting job this summer. John Hansen may have saved this pick for the tenth round, but you can't expect him to go this high in a normal draft. I sense this pick had more to do with getting Montario's name on people's radar and this was the last round broadcasted on the radio. View the full draft at http://www.fanball.com/siriusdraft/ To read about the pre-draft experience, read part one... TAGS: Fantasy Football Draft, Sirius XM, Hard Rock Cafe, Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars, Jeremy Roenick, Jay Thomas, Chris "Mad Dog" Russo, Steve Phillips, Scott Ferrel, Fantasy Advice, NFL, Howard Stern Wrap-Up Show, John Hein, Gary Dell'Abate, Boba Booye Closer Carousel: National League Report 07/20/2010
 John Axford Brewers Raise your hand if you predicted that John Axford would be leading the Brewers in saves this year... That's what I thought... Trevor Hoffman may be the all time leader in saves, but the hot hand is John Axford and he's rewarded anyone that took a shot with him early enough. At 50% owned in Y! leagues, there may be a chance he's available in your league and if so, pick him up. Axford has closed 10 games without a blown save and owns a 5-1 record to go along with a 32 Ks in 26 IP. His ERA and WHIP statistics stand at a very respectable 3.12 and 1.27 respectively, so it doesn't appear that he's going to slow down any time soon. Phillies Sometimes you get the bear, sometimes the bear gets you. Injuries have been the storyline in Philadelphia this year, but they're starting to get healthy. There have been five pitchers to record a save for the Phillies this year. Brad Lidge leading the way with seven and Ryan Madson has four saves to his credit. Combined those two have only seen action in 32 games so far due to injury. Even with the limited action this year, the two closers in Philadelphia have combined for six blown saves. Although they've been ineffective at times, there will be plenty of opportunities for the rest of the season. If you want to take a shot at some saves and can sacrifice ERA, take a look at Lidge and Madson who are 57% owned and 21% owned respectively in Y! Leagues. Nationals With the trading deadline looming, the Nationals find themselves 13 games out and their closer Matt Capps figures to be a target of many teams looking to add bullpen depth. If Capps is traded he will end up being someone's setup man and lose most of his Fantasy relevance. After a trade, expect the Nationals to continue grooming their closer of the future, Drew Storen. Last years #10 pick Storen blew through the minor leagues quicker than his first round counter part Steven Strasburg. Only 5% owned in Y! leagues, Storen could stand to see a fair share of save opportunities before the year is out. Diamondbacks The bullpen in Arizona has been pretty bad this year. Considering that their opening day closer has an ERA north of eight and the only pitcher with a WHIP below 1.29 is a kid they picked up in a trade recently. Chad Qualls (48% owned) was the closer for most of the season, but the new management team in Arizona will probably go in a different direction and today it appears that Juan Gutierrez (2% owned) is the latest to get a chance at the end of games. So far so good, as Gutierrez has earned two saves as of late. But his high ERA, 6.96, and 1.515 WHIP suggest he'll struggle just like those that have come before him. Sam Demel (1% owned) is the one bright spot with the 1.154 WHIP, but it doesn't appear that the Diamondbacks will be offering up enough chances anyway and we should probably stay away from any member of the D’backs bullpen. Trade Bait... the next six guys are known to be good closers and should be your trade targets if you're looking to trade for saves. Rockies Watch out now, but the Rockies have another chance to get hot and roll through the NL West. For the end of their games, they're very committed to Huston Street, as they should. He's already closed out six saves since returning from the disabled list in June. While Street was on the shelf, most saves went to Manny Corpas and a few went to Franklin Morales, but that's all in the past now. With 135 career saves at 26 years of age, Street is a fantastic option in all formats with career stats of 1.023 WHIP, 2.89 ERA, and a strike out per inning. Dodgers Jonathan Broxton may be the best closer in the National League, but strangely, the Dodgers have only presented Broxton with 21 save chances. Broxton has saved 19 of these chances and posted 55 Ks, a 2.11 ERA, and a 1.18 WHIP in 39.2 IP. The 26-year old righty got off to a slow start this year, but it was due to a lack of opportunities not a lack of production. The Dodgers are still in the NL West mix and should offer plenty of save chances through the end of the season, making Broxton a must own. If you're looking to trade for saves, consider his lack of chances so far this year as a chip for buying low. Reds Tied for the league lead in saves with 25 is Francisco Cordero, even though he's performing well off of his career statistics. The slightly elevated numbers (4.10 ERA compared to a career 3.24 and 1.549 WHIP compared to 1.368) could just be a bump in the road and an excellent 2nd half would bring him right back to his career line. With the Reds leading the NL Central, they have banked the end of their games with Cordero. Going forward, there are zero signs of a change, the Reds will live and die by Cordero in their tight games. Padres Everyone was very confident that Heath Bell would be one of the league leaders in saves, but most thought that by this time it would be for a contender loading up their bullpen. Instead, he's closing out games for the NL West leading Padres. The 32-year old Bell is having a spectacular year and is owned in every format, but if you're trading for saves, this is the guy to turn to. Marlins When Matt Lindstrom went to the DL in June of the 2009 season, the Marlins turned to 25-year old Leo Nunez who they acquired from the Royals. Nunez has saved 46 games while blowing 12 in just over a year of service. He is showing improved WHIP and ERA statistics this year and is on pace to set a career high in strikeouts. Even if there were someone else performing for the Marlins, there are no reasons to think that they would look anywhere else at the end of games. Under team control through the 2012 season, expect the Marlins to focus on other parts of their team and allow Nunez to continue closing games out. Astros So much for the drama many anticipated taking place in the Astros bullpen this season. This spring it was uncertain if Matt Lindstrom would hold onto the closers role all year, but he has turned it up and closed out 22 of his 26 save chances. For someone that throws in the triple digits, Lindstrom hasn't provided the K rate you might expect with 31 Ks in 36 IP. Plus his WHIP is high at 1.486, however he's getting saves and that's what we're looking for. Looking at next year.... Braves There are some special things going on in Atlanta. The division leaders at the All-Star Break will most likely have to part ways with their closer, manager, and maybe even their captain next year. Currently though, Billy Wagner, is having a career year at the age of 38 with five wins to zero losses, 21 saves, and 59 strikeouts in 39 innings! Setting up Wagner has been a mix of Takashi Saito and the 25-year old Jonny Venters. Venters has some upside and could expect to close games out for the Braves in 2011. Cubs It's amazing to think that Carlos Marmol has not locked down the closer role for the Cubs when you consider that he's averaging a ridiculous 17 K/9. But that is the case, because of outings like this past Saturday, where Marmol walked five, gave up 1 hit, and allowed four runners to score in a one run game. Marmol has only blown four saves this year, but the fact that he has given up more walks (33) than hits (24) shows that there is reason for concern in Chicago. Lying in waiting behind Marmol is the closer of the future in Andrew Cashner, he needs more time in the big leagues and is still a long ways from being ready to close big league games. Consider Marmol to have his job on lockdown for the remainder of the year, but going into next year that may not be the case. Giants The Giants made Brian Wilson their full time closer in 2008 and haven't had to look back since. Wilson is tied for the league lead in saves this year and could approach 50 saves by seasons end. Rumors though, have spread this past off-season about the Giants moving Wilson eventually, because of his contract. It's still not clear who will inherit the job. The younger guys in the bullpen, Sergio Romo and Dan Runzler, have been impressive, but not enough to predict a successor. Pirates The Pirates may only have 30 wins to date, however they have offered up 20 saves. Free agent pick up, Octavio Dotel has been able to lock up 19 of the 20 games. But the most interesting story from the Pirates bullpen this year has been the emergence of 27-year old Evan Meek. The former Rule 5 draftee, Meek, has put up a 1.07 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 48Ks in 50.2 IP, good enough to earn himself a spot in the All-Star game. If the Pirates were to trade Dotel, Meek should be next in line, but he'll need to calm the butterflies down before becoming very relevant in our Fantasy world. Meek has blown 5 saves in 6 chances, however he has still maintained the impressive statistics. It would appear that Meek has had a difficult time getting outs when inheriting runners, luckily the closer role doesn't require him to do that often. But wait, there is more.... Mets The Mets have invested heavily in Francisco Rodriguez and he has returned 21 saves for them this year. At 28, Rodriguez has posted a 2.68 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP through 47 IP this year. This high number has put K-Rod on pace for his most innings since becoming a full time closer. Beyond K-Rod, no one holds a very significant role in the bullpen. Elmer Dessens and Bobby Parnell have been effective as of late and could lock up a bigger role if they continue to get outs. Cardinals Throw out an epic loss at Colorado on July 6th and Ryan Franklin has a 2.11 ERA and a WHIP under one through 34.1 IP. Outside of this one historic appearance, Franklin has been extremely dependable with 16 saves in 17 chances. When Franklin has been unavailable, the Cards have turned to Jason Motte on three occasions of which he's closed out 2 (the blown save came the night after the Rockies 12-9 victory over the Cards). Franklin's age, 37, could be a concern for owners carrying him into next year, but for 2010, he continues to be a spectacular option. Written by James Weston for TheFantasyFix.com. Look for James’ weekly insight covering all aspects of Fantasy Baseball. Follow him on Twitter: @TheRealJamesA Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Blog, Fantasy Sports Advice, Fantasy Baseball Advice, National League, Closer Carousel, Closers, John Axford, Ryan Franklin, Billy Wagner, Francisco Rodriguez, Ryan Franklin, Octavio Dotel, Brian Wilson, Evan Meek, Carlos Marmol, Matt Lindstrom, Leo Nunez, Heath Bell, Francisco Cordero, Chad Qualls, Huston Street, Manuel Corpas, Jonathan Broxton, Matt Capps, Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson, James, Weston MLB Closer Carousel: American League Report 07/03/2010
 Daniel Bard What to watch for... Blue Jays - Either Kevin Gregg beat out Jason Frasor or Frasor lost the job to Gregg... No matter how you slice it, the Blue Jays should have a few save opportunities each week. Gregg has all the experience of a closer that has lost a job before, will they go back to Frasor if Gregg falters? Scott Downs or Shawn Camp could get looks at the end of games, but by the time that happens the Jays would be out of contention this year and could look elsewhere. But I could be getting ahead of myself, there are a lot of reasons to think Gregg is going to continue to get the job done. Gregg is 18 for 21 so far this year, his ERA could be a concern, but if you're looking for saves...he's got them. Mariners - The Mariners last save was earned by Brandon League, who converted his 2nd save of the year. David Aardsma had pitched the previous two days, so there isn't much to read into the save chance for League. But then Aardsma went on to blow the Mariners next save opportunity. Aardsma has now blown more saves than he did all of 2009. At 3% owned in Y! leagues, League will be presented with more chances this summer and now is the time to take a shot. Angels - There is nothing more frustrating than being an Angles fan with the lead in the 9th inning. Brian Fuentes has made for great baseball drama, but he still closes games out and continues to get the chances for the Angles. In waiting is Fernando Rodney(38% owned in Y! leagues), who has done well when given the chance. Rodney recently blew his second save chance on the 25th, but if the Angles look to move past Fuentes, Rodney will be their guy. The move has to be coming soon. Fuentes is so good at blowing saves, he blew a save without even giving up a hit! And to top it all off.... the front office could dictate a move since Fuentes owns a contract clause which forces the Angles to pay him $3.25 million next year if he gets 59 appearances(He's made 25 so far this year). Red Sox - Get to know Daniel Bard (23% owned), who is leading the Red Sox bullpen in Appearances, Innings, ERA, Ks, and WHIP. But the closer is Jonathan Papelbon today and he'll be the closer tomorrow. However if a window of opportunity comes up Bard is next in line. White Sox - The White Sox closer, Bobby Jenks has been on the bereavement list this week and the team just kept rolling on. Jenks has only blown one save this year, so his job isn't in jeopardy. If he is to slip up, the Sox can turn to Matt Thorton(57% owned) or a rejuvenated J.J. Putz(13%). Nothing to see here...... Orioles - There is not much to be said about the situation in Baltimore. The team doesn't win often and unfortunately, your team needs to win the game in order to qualify for a save. Alfredo Simon has saved 10 games so far, but he's only seen 19 innings of action this year. And when he's seen playing time, he hasn't put up the strikeouts and statistics that are important to us. Indians - The Indians sit in the cellar of the AL Central, therefore there just aren't that many save opportunities to go around. Kerry Wood is getting the rare save chances today of which he's converted 8 saves. Chris Perez was doing the closing earlier in the year and he managed to get 7. The Indians could go back to Perez, but the team won't offer up enough save situations to give either pitcher much value. Even though they're riding a hot streak, the team figures to trade veterans this month and make moves with their future in mind. Therefore we shouldn't expect the hot streak to continue. The Closer role is on lock down... Yankees - Death, Taxes, and Mariano Rivera....the three guarantees in life. Rays - Reminds me of taking a kicker from a good team, you know you'll do good enough. Rafael Soranio just has to stay healthy to continue closing. If he did get hurt, someone could be inline for saves and the Rays have a few solid arms. Look for Grant Balfour and Dan Wheeler to back up Soranio if he gets hurt. Twins - The Twins haven't missed a beat since Joe Nathan was put on the shelf this spring. Jon Rauch has settled in nicely to the closer role and it doesn't appear that anyone is threatening his role. Tigers - His antics on the field aren't the classiest, but Jose Valverde's results are top notch. So far this year he's locked up 18 saves and posted a miniscule 0.53 ERA. Valverde is supported by one of the best bullpens in baseball, but they just lost Joel Zumaya to a fractured elbow and this could impact Valverde's opportunities. Still, he's one of the best at what he does and the Tigers win games. Royals - A good really effective closer on a bad team can be a good thing. Joakim Soria has managed to accumulate 108 saves in his 4 years of service with the Royals. There aren't any indicators to think that he won't keep racking up saves for the rest of the year, with 21 so far. Look for Soria to top 40 saves this year and flirt with 50 if the Royals can put together some wins. Rangers - The Rangers close out their games with one of the hardest throwers in baseball, 22 year old Neftali Feliz. Feliz has saved 21 games this year and he didn't even have the job out of Spring Training, Frank Francisco won the job out of camp. But since taking over, Feliz has been dominant striking out 38 in just over 35 innings. Feliz is a must own and if you're looking for saves he should be a buy high target given the Rangers hot streak and weak division. Athletics - The 2009 AL Rookie of the Year, Andrew Bailey has saved 16 games so far this year and posted a 1.64 ERA. He's blown three chances, but all things considered, it is safe to say that Bailey has faded the sophomore jinx. Even if he struggles, the Athletics will stand behind Bailey and give him time to work things out. Which of these closers will be the first to lose their job? Leave a comment at the top or reply to us on twitter! Article by James Weston exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Check back weekly for James' excellent fantasy insight and analysis.  Derek Jeter Ultimately, a players career determines his value come free agency, however a big contract year can draw attention to a player and force a bidding war where a player gets paid more than he would have expected when the season started. Use Danny Tartabull as an example, Tartabull had two great seasons leading up to the off season of 1991/2. One of those great seasons was the 1991 campaign which was parlayed into one of the biggest contracts in baseball(Only $5 million a year, but it was 1992). The following players could benefit from a big second half just like Tartabull. Top of the Class Cliff Lee - Lee would be the #1 starter for most clubs and will be the most sought after pitcher on the market. His season so far has done nothing to change anyone's minds, but a 2nd half collapse could drive the market down. It's highly unlikely that will be the case, Lee will continue to dominate and he'll dramatically increase a teams odds of winning in 2011. Carl Crawford - Like Lee, Crawford will be one of the most sought after free agents this offseason. He posses all of the tools teams need and will be a top of the order fixture for whoever he signs with. So far so good in 2010 where Crawford has continued to do what he does. A big second half would be nothing more than icing on the cake, but rest assured that Crawford knows a big second half will afford him a lot of icing. Adam Dunn - Since 2004, Dunn has only hit less than 40HR once, last year when he hit 38. He'll be 31 when he signs and should have a few more years left to slugg at the same rate. With 17HR in 2010, Dunn is among the best in baseball at hitting the long ball and will get paid like one if he continues to do what he's always done. Honor Roll Paul Konerko - Unlike Dunn, Konerko doesn't have age on his side and will have to fight the nay sayers who expect him to tail off. He's showed a downward trend over the last few years, but he's come alive in his contract year. A revitalized Konerko could demand a hefty salary as long as he doesn't fade toward the end of the season. Jorge de la Rosa - De le Rosa looks to be a late bloomer who could add a lot of value to any rotation. After a magnificent 2009 season, he got started right where he left off this year, but has been on the DL since April because of a tendon issue in his finger. Before going down he was on pace to improve upon 2009, but only time will tell how the rest of the season pans out. Jorge should be back soon and stands the chance to leap frog past a lot of other candidates with a big second half. Perhaps no other pitcher has as much riding on the second half as de le Rosa. Juan Uribe - Uribe has been down this road before, a bad 2008 contract year allowed the San Fransisco Giants to have the upper hand in negotiations. He laid the ground work for some playing time in 2010 with a productive 2009 and with the help of some injuries to others, Uribe found more playing time than most expected. Uribe didn't put this time to waste and has proved to be the Giants most productive hitter this year. The market should be good for an infielder that plays three positions well...if he has a big 2010. Jonny Gomes - Gomes has quietly hit 20 HRs three times in his career even though he's never seen a full season with everyday at bats. Jonny is on pace to see his most ABs in a season and will need to put up his most productive numbers this year to garner a lot of interest this off season. Jorge Cantu - A corner infielder with power is what every team desires, how about a player that can play both corners? Even better... Cantu can do just that and has shown a lot of power from time to time. Although his career numbers may not support as much power as some may think Cantu has, he should fit well in any line up and shows no signs that he isn't due for a monster season. A big 2010 second half would sure help many believe. Rafael Soriano - Soriano found himself buried in middle relief until 2009 where he shined once getting a shot at closing with the Braves. Soriano has improved on his 2009 season and if he can keep getting better, he'll be the best closer(not named Marino Rivera) available. Class Clown John Buck - In April, Buck was just another soon to be free agent catcher. Now as the All Star break approaches, Buck has put himself in position to be held in high regard by many teams. He's approaching career highs Rs, 2Bs, HRs, and RBIs..... and it's not even July. If Buck expects a nice payday, he better keep on keepin' on. Most Popular Derek Jeter - The market for 37 year old Shortstops has never been better. Jeter hasn't shown many signs that he's playing days are past him and if he produces more in the second half, there isn't another Free Agent story that will have more drama. Most would be shocked if Jeter signs with anyone but the Yankees, but what if better offers are out there? Class of 2010 Troy Glaus and Aubrey Huff signed one year deals prior to this season, because teams were unsure how these veterans would hold up in 2010. How ya like me now? Both players have produced quite well this year and if they can improve on their numbers, each should expect a nice pay day this offseason. Which of these contract players will have the greatest fantasy baseball value in the second half of 2010? Leave a comment at the top or reply to us on twitter! Article by James Weston exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Check back weekly for James' excellent fantasy insight and analysis. Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, MLB, Cliff Lee, Seattle Mariners, Derek Jeter, New York Yankees, Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay Rays, Troy Glaus, Atlanta Braves, Aubrey Huff, Juan Uribe, San Francisco Giants, John Buck, Toronto Blue Jays, Rafael Soriano, Jorge Cantu, Florida Marlins, Jonny Gomes, Cincinnati Reds, Paul Konerko, Chicago White Sox, Adam Dunn, Washington Nationals, Jorge de la Rosa, Colorado Rockies  Madison Bumgarner Brett Wallace 1B TOR, August 26, 1986 - Traded to Oakland for Matt Holiday and then swapped for Michael Taylor after the Roy Halladay deal, Wallace has hit 27 HRs since being promoted to AAA last year. Coming up in the Cardinals system, Wallace figured to play 3B. But the Blue Jays have depth at 3B, so he's played 1B exclusively this year. Lyle Overbay stands directly in his way and he's being paid almost $8 million. If Wallace does get the call it will be at 1B or DH, so he's call will depend on the play of Overbay and Adam Lind. Although neither player has put up amazing numbers, it's unclear if the organization is ready to make a move. Madison Bumgarner P SF, August 1, 1989 - The Giants came into camp this spring and slotted the 10th pick of the 2007 draft into the 5th rotation spot, by the time season started, Bumgarner was in AAA Fresno. There was a lot published about his dip in velocity and his personal issues he dealt with in the off-season, but that's all behind us now. Since April 19th Bumgarner has been brilliant including a 0.94 ERA in the month of May. He had one hiccup in June which included an ejection and a 3 game suspension that brought back some of the personality concerns. The Giants put Todd Wellemeyer on the DL recently, but they used their roster move to add Joe Martinez instead of calling up Bumgarner. The Giants plan on skipping the 5th spot next time around to give Wellemeyer a chance to come off the DL. If Wellemeyer can't come off the DL, Bumgarner could get the call this month. Brandon Allen 1B ARI, Feb 12, 1986 - Late last year the Diamondbacks traded away one of their best relievers in Tony Pena for 1B prospect, Allen. He made a big splash in AAA Reno and found a lot of playing time with the Diamondbacks late last year. His numbers were not good and the organization signed 1B Adam LaRoche to a 1 year deal in the offseason. Allen started the year in AAA and took a while to get going. But in the last few weeks he has performed quite well. His BB/K rate is very encouraging for someone with the power of Allen. He is seeing the ball well and stands to get a look with the big league club soon. With the trade of Conor Jackson and quotes from management, the Diamondbacks will be part of quite the fire-sale this year. LaRoche would make for a nice fit for many clubs and should be moved very soon. With that move, Allen should see the majority of the time at 1B One last player to keep an eye on is Dayan Viciedo who was just called up by the White Sox. The 21 year old Cuban defector is going to have to earn his playing time, but he has a lot of upside. His career BB and K rates need to improve, but if he produces when he plays he could be the White Sox 3B for the next 10 years. Which of these do you think has the greatest fantasy baseball value in 2010? 2011? Leave a comment at the top or reply to us on twitter. Twitter.com/thefantasyfix Article by James Weston exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Check back weekly for James' excellent fantasy insight and analysis. Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, James Weston, MLB, Brett Wallace, Toronto Blue Jays, Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants, Brandon Allen, Arizona Diamondbacks, Dayan Viciedo, Chicago White Sox, Lyle Overbay, Adam Lind, Adam LaRoche, Conor Jackson, Tony Pena, Todd Wellemeyer |
