2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Advice & Analysis
Times are changing and Twitter has quickly become a great source of sports information. Everyone from sports stars to professional sports writers to internet-famed sports bloggers are writing daily. So TheFantasyFix.com decided it was far by time to do a roundtable with the LADIES of TWITTER! So here was the question: As the conclusion of the 2010 Major League Baseball regular season approaches, we would like to identify those players who fell short of expectations (busts) and those who exceeded expectations (surprises). Name one bust/surprise to this point of the 2010 season (describe their 2010) and state what you expect from them in the 2011 season. (rebound, maintain, regress etc..) And away we go!...  Biggest Bust Of 2010: Jason Bay | LF | New York Mets Jason Bay was a highly coveted free agent after the 2009 season. He was a three-time All-Star who had just hit .267 with 36 home runs and 119 RBIs. With the exception of a .745 OPS in 2007, Bay had an OPS of near .900 or better every season from 2003-09. As a result, the New York Mets rewarded him with one of the worst contracts in Major League Baseball – a four-year, $66 million deal that could top $80 million with a vesting option in the fifth year. Bay will turn 32 in less than a month. His age, history of injuries (shoulder surgery in 2003 and arthroscopic knee surgery in 2006), and subpar defense (lifetime UZR/150 of -7.8 in left field) should have deterred the Mets from offering such a lopsided contract. The Boston Red Sox’s best offer in retaining Bay was a four-year deal between $60 million and $65 million; they refused to include a fifth year. Thus, with his monstrous contract and even higher expectations for on-field performance, Bay is the biggest bust of 2010. He has not played since suffering a concussion in July nor do the Mets expect him to come back before season’s end. Not only was his fielding below average (-3.9 UZR/150), he struggled with swinging the bat. Bay was batting .259 with six home runs, 47 RBIs, and an OPS of .749. He’ll most likely miss 40% of the season. The Mets clearly didn’t pay Bay an average of $16.5 million a year for him to play bad defense, hit an offensive wall, and then sit out with an injury.  Biggest Surprise Of 2010: Jaime Garcia | LHP | St. Louis Cardinals Jaime Garcia was drafted 680th overall in the 22nd round of the 2005 draft by the St. Louis Cardinals. After making appearances in ten games in 2008, he underwent Tommy John surgery. He came back in 2009 to pitch 37 2/3 innings in the minors. No one expected Garcia to make the Cardinals’ 40-man roster. Manager, Tony La Russa, and pitching coach, Dave Duncan, both told Garcia numerous times in spring training that a return to Triple-A Memphis would be more beneficial to his development. Instead, Garcia was so impressive with a 3.00 ERA and a 4.0 K/BB ratio in 24 IP that he earned the No. five spot in the starting rotation. This season, he has astounded everyone with his prowess on the mound. He is now the No. three pitcher on staff after aces Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright. Of his 25 starts, 17 are quality starts. His ERA of 2.33 is the sixth best in the NL and his GB% of 55.2% ranks third in the NL. After Garcia got off to a hot start with a 1.04 ERA in April and 1.53 ERA in May, many worried that he had hit a rookie wall. His 4.50 ERA in June was highlighted by a 2.0 IP outing against the Kansas City Royals where he gave up five earned runs, the most allowed by Garcia this year. However, he has bounced back in the last two months and hasn’t given up an earned run in his last three starts. He even pitched his first ever complete game shutout on August 22nd against the San Francisco Giants in 89 pitches. Garcia has been a highly reliable arm in the wake of injuries to starters Brad Penny and Kyle Lohse. The lift he has given the Cardinals cannot be understated or overlooked, especially after coming back from Tommy John surgery.  Susan Shan, known as the Asian Sensation, is an independent sports analyst and writer. Check out Susan's writing, radio appearances, and video clips at http://www.susanshan.com. Feel free to tweet at her at http://twitter.com/susan_shan, as well. She's all about sports, all the time.  Biggest Surprise of 2010: Scott Rolen | 3B | Cincinnati Reds When Walt Jocketty traded for Scott Rolen on July 31st of last year, he was looking for veteran leadership, everyday all out effort, consistent hitting, strong RBI production and Gold Glove caliber fielding from the 34 yr old. Jocketty knew exactly what he was getting in Rolen. He was GM of the Cardinals in July 2002 when he traded four players to get Rolen from the Phillies. He also knew he was taking on Rolen’s eight-year, $90 million deal he signed him to in St. Louis. Rolen was a five-time All-Star, a seven- time Gold Glover and the 1997 NL Rookie of the Year with Philadelphia. He helped lead St. Louis to their 2006 World Series win. While Rolen was still playing Gold Glove-caliber defense at the hot corner, and was having a fine season at the plate, he had seen a dip in his power numbers. He was due $11 million last year and in 2010. That salary and the fact that injuries had limited Scott over the past four seasons, was seen as a major drawback. He was averaging just 379 at bats per season. This trade was not looked upon as a stellar one by many Cincy fans and some members of the press. Those that doubted the trade have been pleasantly surprised. He has provided everything that Jocketty was sure he could. From his veteran leadership to his increased power numbers, Rolen has been one of the key catalysts for the Reds turnaround this season. While appearing in just 106 games due to a hamstring injury, the 35 yr old Rolen is 2nd behind the hot as the face of the sun Joey Votto in most of the Reds major hitting numbers. Rolen has 19 home runs and has driven in 73 RBI. He has a .366 OBP, .528 SLG, .294 AVG and .893 OPS. All put him in 2nd place on the Reds roster. He has a .996 FPCT which is 2nd for 3rd basemen in the majors in 2010. He leads all active major league 3rd basemen in assists and Total Zone Runs and is 2nd for all active 3rd basemen in Range Factor per game. He ranks 6th in the NL in slugging and 9th in OPS for this season. He was named to the 2010 NL All Star Team. He also renegotiated his contract to assist the Reds and instead of the $11 million he was due, he deferred his salary and is making ‘only’ $7.6 million. As of the All Star break, in the year since they acquired Rolen, the Reds were 70 and 42 when he’s in the lineup and 12-26 when he’s not. He is projected to hit 25 HR’s and drive in 96 RBI, with a .366 OBP, .528 SLG and an .893 OPS in 2010. If he stays healthy, there is no reason to believe his 15th yr in the majors will show much regression. Irony watch: St.Louis is on the hook for paying the $4 million bonus due to Rolen in 2010.  Written by Jacqueline Hadley Conrad. Follow her on twitter @jhadleyconrad  Biggest Bust of 2010: Carlos Zambrano | RHP | Chicago Cubs RHP Carlos Zambrano was reinstated from the restricted list on July 30th of this year. That about sums up his 2010 season. Zambrano threw a tirade in the dugout on June 25th, after he gave up four runs in the first inning to their crosstown rivals, the White Sox. He then started a fight with teammate Derrek Lee. The Cubs coaching staff had to separate the two players. Piniella did not let Zambrano back in the game and he was later suspended indefinitely by the Cubs GM. Zambrano had to undergo anger management training during his suspension. Zambrano started the season as the Cubbies ace. He stumbled badly and gave up 8 runs to the Braves in one and a third innings. The Cubbies lost the game 16-5. His season has been up and down since that day. On April 21st he was sent to the bullpen. On May 30th the Cubbies moved Zambrano back to the rotation. In his four starts before his meltdown he went 2 and 2. After he returned from suspension he was moved back to the bullpen until Aug 9th. The Cubbies returned Zambrano to the rotation for the second time this season. He hasn't given up more than two runs and he's allowed only six runs in 24 innings. Although Zambrano has had some good results since his return, his velocity is diminished and his command is poor, which has always been his weakness. The $18 million the Cubbies are paying Zambrano has produced a W/L record of 5 wins and 6 losses. He has an ERA of 4.64 and a WHIP of 1.680. His W/L % is .455 with 0 shut outs and 72 strike outs. Compare that to his career averages of 110 wins and 74 losses, a 3.57 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. His career W/L % is .598 with 4 shut outs and 1396 strike outs. Between 2003 and 2006 he never had less than 13 wins. In 2007 he had 18 wins and 13 losses with a 3.95 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. He lead the NL in wins in 2006, is a three time All Star, as well as a three time Silver Slugger. From pitching a no hitter and playing in the All Star Game in 2008 to the disaster of this year, Zambrano is certainly a major disappointment.    Biggest Surprise of 2010: Jose Bautista | OF | Toronto Blue Jays I’d like to thank the Fantasy Fix for inviting me to the roundtable...and I’d like to curse the Fantasy Fix for inviting me to the roundtable. Having to choose just one surprise and one bust for the 2010 MLB season? For someone who tends to overanalyze, overthink and obsess about every little detail, this was no easy task. Here goes. Let’s start with my 2010 surprise: Toronto Blue Jays’ right fielder Jose Bautista. If you don’t know why I chose Bautista, that’s an even bigger surprise than his astounding numbers. Through 127 games, Bautista’s slash line is a remarkable .263/.380/.616, good for an eye-popping .996 OPS. That’s not why I chose Bautista. No, I chose him because of his Major League leading 42 home runs. Forty-two home runs (so far) from a player who has never topped 20 in a single season; from a player with his fifth team in six years. Bautista’s home runs (42) and RBI (99) totals so far are higher than those from his last two seasons combined. Whether it’s fantasy or reality, nobody in their right mind could have expected this output from Bautista. I did not choose Bautista to capitalize on sensationalistic speculation about potential PED use. I did not choose him because he’s a Yankee killer (.366/.527/.854; 6 HR in 12 games). I chose him solely because his production has been flat-out incredible, and completely surprising. For more, I recommend this piece by Fanhouse’s Frankie Pilliere about Bautista’s altered swing mechanics as a key to his success. Do I expect Bautista to replicate this season? No way. This is truly a once in a lifetime year. Do I think he can hit 30 home runs per season with regular playing time and adequate protection in the lineup? Absolutely. Note that Bautista will be a free agent after this season.  Biggest Bust of 2010: Pablo Sandoval | 1B/3B | San Francisco Giants Now for my choice for 2010 MLB bust. Unfortunately, I had many to choose from, including Josh Beckett and Chase Utley, but I wanted to avoid guys who have been injured and missed significant time. So who did I select as this year’s biggest disappointment? San Francisco Giant 1B/3B Pablo Sandoval. Though his position on the MLB All-Fat Team is secure, poor Kung Fu Panda just hasn’t lived up to expectations after his breakout rookie season. Let’s look at the numbers:  That’s a big drop, but most stunning is his inability to deliver with RISP this season. Last year, Sandoval hit .301/.390/.517 with RISP. In 2010 it’s .207/.294/.267. Those numbers are terrible, in both fantasy and reality. Admittedly, RISP production is often erratic, and for the long haul, players are rarely "clutch" or "unclutch." Assuming Sandoval is an .800 OPS hitter (somewhere between his 2009 and 2010 numbers), that's in the ballpark of what’s expected with RISP (rather than 2009's insanely good numbers in that spot, or 2010's horribly bad ones). Sandoval’s hitting has improved since Pat Burrell joined the Giants, and his K rate is about the same as last season’s. I would not give up on KFP. Next season I expect better than this season’s performance, but to come close to 2009 he needs to improve his numbers with RISP. If the Giants bring in another big bat to protect their rotund star, he has a chance. All data in this post sourced from Baseball-Reference.com, without which posts like this would be impossible.  Amanda Rykoff is a NYC-based sports fan, TiVo junkie and social media enthusiast. Amanda shares her observations, commentary and diatribes on these and many other topics on her blog, The OCD Chick. She is a former Director of Business Affairs at ESPN and previously hosted the ESPN podcast, “Play Ball! with Amanda and Melissa.” Her fantasy baseball team, Longorious Basterds, is currently in second place but hopes to make a late season push for the title. You can follow her on Twitter @amandarykoff.  Biggest Bust Of 2010: Chone Figgins | 2B/3B | Seattle Mariners After acquiring Cliff Lee, Milton Bradley and Chone Figgins over the winter, the Seattle Mariners were thought to be a key contender in 2010. However, things did not go the way the franchise had planned. Bradley took a leave of absence to deal with personal issues, leaving him on the bench as a utility man, and Lee, perennial trade bait, was sent to the Texas Rangers in July. That left Figgins to provide the Mariners with the solace that their off-season aggressiveness wasn’t all for naught. In 2009, Chone Figgins was among American League leaders in WAR, on-base %, tripples and stolen bases. He also led the league in walks, finished 10th in MVP voting and also played in his first All-Star Game. He was batting .292 in five full seasons as an Angel, averaging 162 hits, 52 RBI, and 44 stolen bases in 850 games from 2004-2009. After swinging at a career high 22.3% of pitches outside of the strike zone in 2007, his plate discipline was improving drastically, with his o-swing% in 2008 and 2009 at 16.5% and 15.1% respectively. He was considered one of the most desirable free agents on the market following the 2009 season. When Figgins arrived in Seattle, however, he was another player. In 127 games in 2010, Figgins is batting well below his career batting average, at .246. His o-swing% has crept to 19.7%. His saving grace from a fantasy perspective is that he has still stolen 32 bases, but for the most part, that is where his allure ends. ESPN buffs project that he will have another turn-around year in 2011, and for the sake of his 4-year, $36 million agreement with the Mariners, I hope they’re right.  Biggest Surprise Of 2010: Carlos Ruiz | C | Philadelphia Phillies In his first three full seasons with the Philadelphia Phillies, Ruiz was batting .245, and averaged 83 hits and 43 RBIs in 339 games. Among MLB catchers with a minimum 330 plate appearances, his batting average ranked 15th in 2007, 23rd in 2008, and 13th in 2009. In 2010, he is batting a career high .287, second only to Joe Mauer. To date, Chooch has started 84 games, and sat out 20 days with a concussion. Before being placed on the disabled list, Ruiz was hitting .275. Since returning to the lineup on July 10, he is batting .301 with an on-base percentage of .359 and slugging .496 in 40 games. Ruiz also has 22 of his 35 RBIs since July 10 and has had 10 go-ahead hits year to date. What’s easy to forget is that while 2010 may be the year of the pitcher, there is a catcher behind every staff ace. On April 5, Roy Halladay made his first start as a Phillie and reportedly never shook off Chooch once. On May 29, Doc pitched the 20th perfect game in history as Ruiz called the game from behind the plate. When the Phillies honored the perfect game on August 26, Doc presented Ruiz with a ring engraved with the phrase “We Did It Together”. Chooch has been a remarkable asset to the team both at and behind the plate, and if the projections are any indication, he will continue to lead the Phillies in their playoff hunt.  About “Chicks Dig the Long Ball” http://digphilly.wordpress.com Twitter: @BaseballLadies Founded by Michelle O’Malley (@M_OMalley on Twitter), Chicks Dig the Long Ball is a Philadelphia Phillies baseball blog written solely by women from all over the country. Game recaps range from the traditional play-by-play and box score style articles, to limericks, to virtual Twitter archives. Mixed in amongst all the statistical analysis are heartfelt pleas to underperforming players, odes to the plays that leave us speechless and even recipes dedicated to our men in red. It is ever expanding and still finding its niche in the Phillies blogosphere, but day after day proves that chicks do in fact dig not only the long ball but every other facet of the game as well. Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Sports Blog, Fantasy Sports Advice, Fantasy Baseball, MLB, Twitter, Jaime Garcia, Jason Bay, Carlos Zambrano, Scott Rolen, Jose Bautista, Pablo Sandoval, Chone Figgins, Carlos Ruiz, St. Louis Cardinals, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, Cincinnati Reds, Toronto Blue Jays, San Francisco Giants, Seattle Mariners, Philadelphia Phillies 1 Comment It's the All-Star Break and the Awards just can't wait til seasons end. The Fantasy Fix and some of the top fantasy experts out there have made their choices. Take a look to see the first half MVP, Cy Young, Surprises, Busts and more!  Miguel Cabrera AL MVP Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit Tigers Cabrera possesses the full package of MVP qualities. He stands at or near the top in nearly all significant offensive categories: 1st in BA at .346, 2nd in HR with 22, 1st in RBI with 76, 3rd in R with 64, 3rd in doubles with 26, 2nd in OBP at .423, 1st in SLG % at .650 and 1st in OPS at 1.073. He's been a picture of consistency from month to month: April - .344 5 HR 25 RBI May - .344 9 HR 23 RBI June - .323 6 HR 20 RBI An underrated, yet critical element of an MVP candidate is their ability to perform in the clutch. On a team that's hitting .252 with RISP, Cabrera is hitting .358. According to STATS LLC., he has 7 HR and 20 RBI in AB's in the 7th inning+ “with the batting team ahead by one run, tied, or with the tying run on base, batting or on deck”.* Even with Cabrera’s dynamic offensive resume, the Tigers are still a middle of the pack offensive club, currently 8th in runs scored and 9th in HR. Where would they be without him? Very far from 9 games above .500 and first place in the AL Central. His protection in the lineup comes from Magglio Ordonez, who the entire baseball world thought was washed up in 2009, and Brennan Boesch, a 25 year old Rookie who never had a ML AB entering this season. While all the credit in the world goes to Ordonez and Boesch, there is no question Cabrera's presence has had a marked impact on their success in 2010. To review: Massive numbers... check. Clutch ability... check. Direct impact on the performance of teammates... check. Invaluable to the survival of his team... check. M-V-P. Vladimir Guerrero and Josh Hamilton of the Rangers are both more than worthy of consideration, but they neutralize each other's exploits. Robinson Cano of the Yankees is also quite deserving, but with the Yanks pitching prowess, they'd be winning games regardless. * http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jioHEhf0de-VxhB-HapWzIWL5OLwD9GR4C6O0 Written by Adam Ganeles for TheFantasyFix.com. Make sure to check out Adam’s weekly MiLB Farm Report covering A, AA & AAA ball! _________________________________________________________________________  Albert Pujols NL MVP Albert Pujols, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals About 14 weeks ago, the first pick of your draft was Albert Pujols, because he had the most value. If you redrafted today and had the first pick, Pujols would still be the player offering you the most value. Albert Pujols is the definition of value to Fantasy Baseball owners by offering consistent production in the statistics which matter most. So far this year he's scored 54 runs, hit 22 home runs, and driven in 64 RBIs. Add a .307 batting average and 9 stolen bases to boot – he's given his owners the corner stone to a team which resides at the top of their standings. Written by James Weston for TheFantasyFix.com. Look for James’ weekly insight covering all aspects of Fantasy Baseball. Follow us on Twitter @thefantasyfix _________________________________________________________________________  Cliff Lee AL CY YOUNG Cliff Lee, SP, Texas Rangers There certainly is a great crop of AL pitchers to choose from for this award. David Price is having a breakout year, Jered Weaver is looking at better numbers than his stellar 2009 performance and batters can barely touch Jon Lester. But one player is on his way to breaking an amazing MLB record, Cliff Lee. One key statistic puts Lee on top of the rest – strikeout to walk ratio (K/BB). Cliff has only surrendered six walks so far this season. That's right folks - SIX! His K/BB ratio right now is 15/1. The highest amount through a full season in history is Bret Saberhagen with 11/1 in 1994. In fact Roy Halladay who has only given up 19 walks himself is only averaging 6.73. Josh Johnson is at 4.39 and "All -the-Craze Jimenez" is averaging a lowly 2.45 K/BB. Lee is the man for the moment, but no one can look past what David Price has done in the first half. Leading the league in ERA and Wins, Price may be all the rave by years end. Written by Evan Marx for TheFantasyFix.com. Evan is co-owner of The Fantasy Fix and reaches into your brain to pick his topics each week. And yes, he knows exactly what you are thinking right now. Shame on you! Follow us on Twitter @thefantasyfix _________________________________________________________________________  Josh Johnson NL CY YOUNG Josh Johnson, SP, Florida Marlins While Ubaldo Jimenez was the one getting most of the early season headlines, it was Josh Johnson that went out and consistently dominated the opposition. To this point Johnson is 9-3 with a 1.70 ERA and 0.96 WHIP and his peripherals are rock solid. Johnson is ninth in baseball with a 9.07 K/9 and eighth in baseball with a 4.39 K/BB rate (min 90 IP). He has the third best whiff rate among Major League pitchers (26.1 percent), just barely behind Tim Lincecum and Clayton Kershaw. Added on top of all that, he has a good ground ball rate (48 percent) and a line drive rate against that is below league average (18 percent). Those last two factors have helped keep his BABIP against a low .278. As long as he continues to keep limiting line drives and keeping the ball on the ground, his BABIP should remain low all season. Want one more nugget of advanced statistics? Johnson hasn't exactly been walking down easy street. The batters he has faced this season have a combined VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) of 49.8, which is the highest combined VORP that any pitcher has faced this season (min 80 IP). Needless to say, Josh Johnson has been beyond impressive over the first half of the 2010 season. Written by Charlie Saponara. Charlie is owner/author of fantasybaseball365.com, featured columnist on bleacherreport.com and a contributor for projectprospect.com _________________________________________________________________________  Brennan Boesch AL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR - The Offensive Perspective Brennan Boesch, OF, Detroit Tigers Outfielder Brennan Boesch didn't make the Detroit Tigers' opening day roster, but he did get a quick call-up in late April when Carlos Guillen went on the disabled list. And all he's done since then is hit the daylights out of the ball. The reason so few people know about Boesch, even though his .342 average is among the American League's highest, is because he hasn't had enough plate appearances to qualify among the league leaders...until now. He finally reached the minimum on Sunday. But he will in just a matter of days. Boesch is hitting the ball with authority -- with 12 homers, 49RBI, a .397 on-base percentage and a .990 OPS. To put that in perspective, only four players in the majors have a higher OPS: Miguel Cabrera, Justin Morneau, Josh Hamilton, Joey Votto and Albert Pujols. That's some pretty select company. The 25-year-old Boesch got his feet wet playing against mostly right-handed pitchers, but he became an everyday player for the Tigers once manager Jim Leyland started giving him a chance against lefties. He hasn't just held his own against lefties, he's thrived. The lefty-swinging Boesch is hitting an amazing .459 (28-for-61) against southpaws -- tops in the majors for players with more than 20 at-bats -- with three homers and a 1.307 OPS. At the midpoint of the 2010 season, he's the clear choice as AL Rookie of the Year. Written by Steve Gardner. Steve is one of the elite fantasy baseball analysts and the voice behind USA Today’s Fantasy Windup. You can also find Steve on Twitter @SGardnerUSAT. _________________________________________________________________________  Neftali Feliz AL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR - The Pitching Perspective Neftali Feliz, RP, Texas Rangers Neftali Feliz of the Texas Rangers needs to get serious consideration for the American League Rookie of the Year at the halfway point. Feliz is the 21 year-old flamethrower and one of the essential pieces sent to the Rangers from the Atlanta Braves in the Mark Teixeira deal in 2007. He saw some live action with the big boys in 2009, but failed to accumulate 50 innings pitched, which allows him to be eligible for 2010 ROY consideration. After Frank Francisco blew two saves to start the season for the Rangers, Feliz was appointed to the closer position, and hasn’t looked back since. In 36 total appearances in the first half of 2010, Feliz is 1-2 with a 3.82 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP and is striking out 10.04 batters per nine innings. Additionally, batters are hitting just .203 against Feliz and he is stranding more than 70% of base runners. He has saved 23 games in 25 chances for the first place Texas Rangers. Neftali's 23 saves ties him for second best in the AL with Rafael Soriano of the Rays and they sit just two saves behind the league leader, Joakim Soria of the Royals who has 25. Feliz will need to calm his “Wild Thing” tendencies and reduce his current 3.11 BB/9 if he is to remain effective at the closer position. However, as the season progresses, Neftali should continue to mature on the hill in the pressure situations and gain greater control of his 96 mph fastball. Despite the incredible season Brennan Boesch is having offensively, I believe the young closer on the first place team earns the nod for AL ROY. Written by Alan Harrison for TheFantasyFix.com. Alan is the founder and co-owner of TheFantasyFix.com. Follow us on Twitter @thefantasyfix _________________________________________________________________________  Gaby Sanchez NL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR - The Offensive Perspective Gaby Sanchez, 1B, Florida Marlins Crazy right? Maybe two months ago it would've been, but not now. I suppose Stephen Strasburg might have a case, especially if he continues to pitch like he has, but he'll also be shut down the first week of September. Are we really prepared to hand the award to a starting pitcher who's only played half the season? Never mind the fact that he might not lead a single major category among rookies by the time Labor Day rolls around. Jason Heyward was everybody's favorite until a thumb injury sent his season into a tailspin two months ago. Of course, he still has plenty of time to grab back the lead in the race for this season's top rookie, but if his thumb injury lingers, his slump could very well last into September. Who's left? Jaime Garcia? There's no doubt he's impressed and he might give Gaby a run for his money if the Cardinals don't impose an innings cap -- Garcia threw just 52.2 frames in 2009 after undergoing Tommy John surgery at the end of the 2008 season -- but then again, he's been pitching over his head all season. At least that's what his fielder independent ERAs tell us (3.30 FIP, 3.76 xFIP). Even if he finishes the year with an ERA around 3.00, it means he'll have posted an ERA closer to 4.00 in the second half. Throw in a league-average strikeout rate and you have a solid rookie campaign, not an award-winner (unless voters give him the award based on win totals, in which case, he's probably a shoe-in). That leaves Gaby, who currently ranks first in batting average, second in runs scored, fourth in RBI, and fifth in homers among all rookies heading into the All-Star break. Sabermetrically speaking, Sanchez is first among all rookies in WAR (2.1 Wins Above Replacement), wOBA (.367 Weighted On-Base Average), and wRAA (Sanchez's 12.1 Runs Above Average is 13th among ALL MLBers). He hasn't just done it with his bat, either. His glovework's been just as solid (he ranks third among all rookies -- behind Heyward and Austin Jackson -- in both UZR and UZR/150). Obviously, Sanchez needs to hit at least as well as he did in the first half to keep his name in the conversation. But based on the adjustments he's made and how much he's improved month-to-month, I have little doubt he'll be able to do so. Written By Paul Bourdett of FanHouse. Paul Bourdett's weekly waiver wire column, "The Pickup Artist" can be found each Thursday at AOL FanHouse..You can also catch Paul on Twitter: @PaulMBourdett _________________________________________________________________________  Jaime Garcia NL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR - The Pitching Perspective Jaime Garcia, SP, St. Louis Cardinals 99.2 Innings Pitched, 8-4 Record, 2.17 ERA, 80 Ks Now I know that this may not be a popular choice for many because he is not an everyday player, but his number are too staggering to ignore. There is not a great rookie pool to choose from in the NL this season, so it made this decision very difficult. There have been some great first halves from Jason Heyward, Gaby Sanchez, Ike Davis, and Drew Stubbs. Yet it is the consistency of Garcia that raises him above the rest. All 4 of the position players have slowed down of late after very fast starts to their careers. This is typical of rookies as the rest of the league begins to put together scouting reports on them. Dave Duncan, Pitching Coach for the Cards, is the X Factor for Jamie because he is widely considered the best pitching coach in the game for his ability to develop young arms. You can look for similar results from him in the second half of the season as he locks up the NL full season award. Written by Dan Pollak for TheFantasyFix.com. Check back weekly for Dan's excellent fantasy baseball analysis and projections. You can follow Dan on Twitter: @FantasyFix_FM _________________________________________________________________________  Colby Lewis AL 1st HALF SURPRISE Colby Lewis, SP, Texas Rangers Some say Colby Lewis spent his offseasons at a remote Japanese Zen Buddhist temple and meditated to achieve pitching enlightenment. But whatever he did during his two years in Japan, it's working. When he left the MLB after the 2007 season, he had the worst ERA in history among pitchers with 200 major league innings, and had been released by five Major League teams. Fast forward to 2010, where he is in the top 10 in the AL in WHIP and strikeouts, and has been the best starter for the first-place Texas Rangers. The biggest change for Lewis has been a much higher strikeout rate, due to more reliance on his improved slider. Overall he's throwing 29% sliders, as opposed to 12.6% back in 2007 (and just 2.4% in 2003). Lewis is throwing more sliders in every count, including 32% sliders when he's behind 2-0 and 40% sliders when he's behind 2-1. Lewis is even throwing 24% first pitch sliders, and has an above-average 63.4% first strike percentage. Lewis has been a bit lucky so far, but should still finish with an ERA under 4, a WHIP around 1.20, and close to a K per inning. The addition of Cliff Lee allows Lewis to slot in as a solid #2 starter on a World Series contender. Written by Alex Shear. Follow Alex on Twitter @RotoSleeperz and view his rarely updated blog at http://rotosleeperz.blogspot.com _________________________________________________________________________  Aubrey Huff NL 1st HALF SURPRISE Aubrey Huff, 1B/OF, San Francisco Giants As of this writing, can you tell me which NL West first basemen has these numbers? .295-17-54-53-3 Did you guess Adrian Gonzalez? If you did you would be wrong. Those numbers actually belong to AUBREY HUFF. In fact, the Giants 1B/OF has actually performed nearly identically to the slugger from San Diego. Honest. A. Huff: .295-17-54-53-3 with a .929 OPS Gonzalez:.301-18-56-49-0 with a .927 OPS Given that you could have taken Huff probably 150 selections after Gonzalez on draft day, and that Huff qualifies at two positions, he has clearly been a bargain of monumental proportions. Written by Ray Flowers. Ray is the Managing Editor of Fanball.com and the CEO of BaseballGuys.com. Ray also co-hosts the Fanball Fantasy Drive on XM 147/Sirius 211 Radio. Follow Ray on Twitter @BaseballGuys _________________________________________________________________________  Matt Wieters AL 1st HALF BUST Matt Wieters, C, Baltimore Orioles Drafted on average in the 7th round, Wieters is easily the biggest non-injury bust in the AL this season. You can never count on injuries, so I'm not counting guys like Jacoby Ellsbury, Kendry Morales, Brian Roberts, et al, but the man whose nickname is God and was the subject of a highly flattering Sports Illustrated piece in spring training has fallen to 59% ownership in ESPN leagues. And it makes sense – as we near the All-Star Break, Wieters is the 21st best catcher in baseball according to ESPN's Player Rater, and has rewarded those who drafted him with a .243 batting average, six homers, 22 runs and 29 RBIs. For comparison's sake, Yankees part-time backstop Francisco Cervelli has more RBI and is hitting 30 points higher; Mariners' offensively challenged Rob Johnson – who is hitting .200 and is owned by 0% of people playing fantasy baseball – has more runs; Diamondbacks backup Chris Snyder has more homers; and no fewer than twenty full-time catchers have a higher batting average. There may be hope, however. He is still hugely talented, and has been hitting better of late – over .300 in July with a few runs scored. But for owners who had high hopes of him being, well, exactly what Buster Posey's been so far, have been sorely disappointed. Hopefully mixed leaguers have found a replacement. I know I have. Kurt Suzuki, welcome to my team. Written by Jesse Mendelson. Jesse is Partner and Senior Writer for www.fantasybaseball101.com, has been playing fantasy baseball almost as long as Ron Shandler with a long history of both tremendous successes and spectacular flameouts. You can contact him at fantasy_baseball101@yahoo.com, and be sure to follow Jesse's writing on www.fantasybaseball101.com and on Twitter @fb101. _________________________________________________________________________  Chase Utley NL 1st HALF BUST Chase Utley, 2B, Philadelphia Phillies Drafted in the middle of the first round, Utley has traditionally been as sure of a bet as anyone in the league. But at the time of the injury (that will keep him out until Labor Day), seven second basemen had more runs, nine had more homers, twelve had more RBIs, eighteen had more steals, and twenty had higher batting averages. For a mid-first rounder, this is just unacceptable. And although you can't count on injuries, his recent sprained thumb means that his owners can expect virtually no production from him all year. At a prime position, no less. My Dad always told me not to slide headfirst... Written by Jesse Mendelson. See above for his street creds. _________________________________________________________________________  Michael Pineda AL MiLB PLAYER TO MAKE BIGGEST POST ASB IMPACT Michael Pineda, SP, Seattle Mariners It was a bit difficult coming up with an AL prospect who would have the greatest impact in the 2nd half of the season, because most of the talent is already up. Jeremy Hellickson, Desmond Jennings, and Jesus Montero are higher rated prospects but their path to the majors is currently blocked. That leaves two pitchers – Dan Hudson from the White Sox and Michael Pineda from the Seattle Mariners. I chose Pineda before Jake Peavy went down for the year, but I am still sticking with him and here is why. Pineda should be called up very soon after the Lee trade and he is already at 100 innings. I can see him getting another 50-60 innings in a very pitchers friendly ballpark the rest of the way. Pineda will be a guy who should get strong K’s, ERA & WHIP, but may not make an impact in the Wins category since he will only be going 5-6 innings per start. Hudson is too much of a fly ball pitcher in a hitters friendly ballpark to make me want to own him in 2010. Pineda stands tall at 6’ 5” and is only 21 years old. While the GB% is in the high 40s and I would like it to be a tad higher, the ballpark and division more than outweigh it. Pineda has a fastball that hits 95-96 at its peak, change up is his 2nd pitch, along with a slider. The secondary stuff is above average. He has averaged more than a strikeout per inning in the minors and his control is solid with a K/BB at 4.00. He has spent most of his time at AA with a recent call up to AAA that until July 9th was looking even better. Long term, I do have some concerns about the elbow injury from 2009 and his delivery. As much of a Pineda fan as any – I do wonder if he ends up in the pen after a couple years if the elbow strain is too much. That being said Pineda should provide a mid 3.00 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 50 K’s, and 4-5 Wins in the 2nd half of 2010. Written by Michael Rathburn. Follow Michael on www.aroundthecooler.com or www.midwestsportsfans.com or on Twitter @Cooler_Guy _________________________________________________________________________  Domonic Brown NL MiLB PLAYER TO MAKE BIGGEST POST ASB IMPACT Domonic Brown, OF, Philadelphia Phillies Domonic Brown was drafted in the 20th round of the 2006 draft. 606 players were taken ahead of him when the Phillies selected him out of a small Georgia high school. In four short years, Brown has made Phillies scout Chip Lawrence look like a genius, and has worked his way into becoming the best overall prospect in baseball who has yet to break onto the major league scene. The 22 year old is currently a man among boys at the highest levels of the minor leagues. Starting the season at Double-A Reading, Brown hammered Eastern League pitching, batting .318 with 16 doubles, 3 triples, 15 HR, 47 RBI, and 12 SB in 65 Games. He was rewarded in June with a promotion to Triple A, at Lehigh Valley where he has been even better, hitting .364 with 3 doubles, 4 HR, and 12 RBI. Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. quoted last week as saying he has no plans to bring Brown to the big leagues until he can play everyday. However with the Phillies falling further behind the Braves and Mets in the NL East with Shane Victorino, Raul Ibanez, and Ben Francisco all hitting below .255 and Jayson Werth becoming a real fan favorite in Philly (I joke), it's very reasonable to believe Brown's time will come sooner than later. When it does, you need to be ready from a fantasy standpoint by adding Brown to your roster now. Like Buster Posey was in the first half of the season, Domonic Brown will be the NL's best Rookie Debut fantasy play in the second half of 2010 and produce immediate results for your team. Written by Ben Lipson. Follow Ben on www.topprospectalert.com or Twitter @MinorLeagueBlog _________________________________________________________________________ Do you agree with the experts picks? Who would you have chosen? Leave a comment, or reply to us on Twitter Twitter.com/thefantasyfix Tags: Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, Fantasy Sports Blog, All-Star Game, All-Star Picks, All-Star Balloting, Roto, MLB, NL, AL, MiLB, Miguel Cabrera, Magglio Ordonez, Brennan Boesch, Vladimir Guerrero, Josh Hamilton, Albert Pujols, Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, Bret Saberhagen, Josh Johnson, David Price, Ubaldo Jimenez, Tim Lincecum, Jim Leyland, Justin Morneau, Joey Votto, Colby Lewis, Aubrey Huff, Adrian Gonzalez, Matt Wieters, Jacoby Ellsbury, Kendry Morales, Brian Roberts, Francisco Cervelli, Rob Johnson, Chris Snyder, Buster Posey, Chase Utley, Michael Pineda, Jeremy Hellickson, Desmond Jennings, Jesus Montero, Domonic Brown, Shane Victorino, Raul Ibanez, Ben Francisco, Jayson Werth, Neftali Feliz, Detroit Tigers, Texas Rangers, St. Louis Cardinals, Philadelphia Phillies, Kansas City Royals, Florida Marlins, Tampa Bay Rays, Colorado Rockies, San Francisco Giants, Minnesota Twins, Cincinnati Reds, San Diego Padres, Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox, Anaheim Angels, New York Yankees, Seattle Mariners MLB records are broken almost every year, some big, some small. Some take longer than others. It took 38 years before Roger Maris's 61 in '61 was broken and then only another two years after for the record to fall again. Some records may just be etched in stone forever since the game is forever changing, like Cy Young's 511 wins. The bottom-line is that not only do the fans crave for them to be broken but the players do too. So we asked our writers: Of current players, who has the best chance of breaking a modern era MLB record before their career is over? Will anyone every beat Rickey Henderson's 130 swipes or Dimaggio's 56 game hitting streak? We sure hope so...  Billy Butler MOST DOUBLES IN A SEASON: EARL WEBB 67 PREDICTION: BILLY BUTLER The record for doubles in a season was set by Earl Webb in 1933 with 67. Among current major leaguers with 5 years or less experience, the most likely candidate to surpass that mark is the Royals Billy Butler. Butler doesn't discriminate against any one section of the baseball diamond. He hits from foul pole to foul pole, from gap to gap. Taking a look at his spray chart, here's the breakdown of his 20 doubles (on pace for 49) thus far in 2010: 5 to LF, 5 to left center, 2 to CF, 2 to right center and 6 to RF. Butler hit 51 two base hits in 2009, and has 116 in 440 career games. Kauffman Stadium is a spacious park (330, 375, 410, 375, 330) and very accommodating to an all-field hitter like Butler. He has power, but is more of a pure line drive hitter than a long fly ball guy. His legs are certainly not a strong suit, so he won't be legging out many triples (3 career). Quite simply, Billy Butler was born to hit doubles, and all the confounding variables seem to be in his favor for a special run. 67 is a reach, but Todd Helton's 59 (highest total since 1936) is not out of the realm of possibility. Written by Adam Ganeles for thefantasyfix.com  Stephen Strasburg HIGHEST STRIKEOUT RATIO PER 9: RANDY JOHNSON 13.4 PREDICTION: STEPHEN STRASBURG In modern baseball, only Randy Johnson, Kerry Wood, and Pedro Martinez have averaged over 10K/9 for their career. The single season mark is held by Randy Johnson's 13.4 K/9 effort from 2001. In his first four starts, Stephen Strasburg has started off with a 14.6 K/9 rate. So what if it's so early into Strasburg's career to begin speculating about how things will go, there is no reason to believe that he's going to slow down. 75 of the 95 pitches he threw in his last start were strikes and through every level he's kept his WHIP under 1. He throws strikes at an amazing percentage and hitters can not put the ball in play, sounds like a recipe for Ks to me. Written by James Weston for thefantasyfix.com  Ryan Howard MOST HOME RUNS IN A MONTH: SAMMY SOSA 20 PREDICTION: RYAN HOWARD Slamming Sammy holds the record but of course he played when taking steroids was the norm. The legitimate winner was Rudy York with 18 (1937) and runner-up Babe Ruth with 17 (1927). Although off to a slower start this year, Ryan Howard is still a home-run machine. Howard only has 15 right now and has historically been a second half player, with not only better power numbers, but a batting average 40 points higher. Even though there are plenty of other big sluggers out there, I feel Howard has the best chance for owning this record. Since his first full season in 2006 he hasn't hit less than 45 in a year. He's hit over ten in a month 11 times and reached a high of 14 in August '06. Ryan Howard was born to hit souvenirs into the bleachers! Written by Evan Marx for thefantasyfix.com  Mark Teixeira MOST CONSECUTIVE GAMES WITH A HIT BY A SWITCH HITTER (AL only): JOSE OFFERMAN 27 PREDICTION: MARK TEIXEIRA It’s difficult to find a record in baseball that doesn’t seem ridiculously out of reach. With the difficult task at hand, I have combed through the archives for one that may fall. Something interesting jumped out at me while I was exploring current and past hitting streaks. As usual, after an April to forget Mark Teixeira is currently riding a 9 game hitting streak. Being a switch hitter you would think that a consecutive game hitting streak would be easier because one would be able to take advantage of favorable matchups. Especially in the AL where you get considerably more protection in the lineup because you don’t have to bat the pitcher. Apparently, this is where I was mistaken. Jose Offerman (known mostly for his chasing after pitchers with bats & punching umpires), currently holds the AL record for consecutive games with a hit as a switch hitter at 27 while playing with the Kansas City Royals in 1998. Nobody in baseball has a better chance to beat this record than Teixeira, who historically is a VERY streaky player. He is already 1/3 of the way there, and hitting in the Yankee lineup he will see plenty of good pitches. Mark has some great matchups the next 18 games as well with 7 vs. Seattle, 3 vs. Toronto, 3 vs. Oakland, 3 vs. TB, 2 vs. LAA, & the recorder breaker home against KC where Offerman played when he set the current record. Hopefully, the layoff of the All Star Game doesn’t cool off his hot bat. Written by Dan Pollak for thefantasyfix.com  Mark Reynolds MOST STRIKEOUTS IN A SEASON BY A BATTER (MARK REYNOLDS 223) PREDICTION: MARK REYNOLDS To me, the most likely record to be broken by a young player is strikeouts by a hitter in a single season. Not a difficult to predict, you say, and you'd be right. After all, its a record that has been broken 4 times in the past 7 years. But the tricky part is who will break it in the coming seasons. Will it be Mark Reynolds, who seems to have a lock on this record? Or will it be Justin Upton, who has only 7 fewer K's this year? Or maybe even Ryan Howard, who set the record himself two years ago? Or perhaps dark horse contenders Rickie Weeks and David Wright? After much back-and-forth, I'm gonna have to be boring and stick with Reynolds. The man strikes out so much - and is actually finding a way to do it more and more often - that its going to be virtually impossible for anyone to catch him. I expect Reynolds to break it twice in the next 4 years and eventually lose playing time because of it - that strikeout rate is just not sustainable even if he does hit a ton of home runs. GUEST WRITER: Jesse Mendelson, Partner and Senior Writer for www,fantasybaseball101.com,has been playing fantasy baseball almost as long as Ron Shandler with a long history of both tremendous successes and spectacular flameouts. Be sure to follow Jesse's writing on www.fantasybaseball101.com and on Twitter @fb101.  Pablo Sandoval MOST GIDP BY A SWITCH HITTER IN A SINGLE SEASON (NL): Ted Simmons (STL-1973)/Dave Philley (PHI-1952) 29 PREDICTION: PABLO SANDOVAL The double play is a pitcher’s best friend, a batter’s worst enemy and more often than not, an inning killer. Pablo Sandoval of the San Francisco Giants will break the record for grounding into the most double plays by a switch-hitter in a single season, this year. Technically, the switch-hitting batter is said to have an advantage over the pitcher, being able to strategically shift from one side of the plate to the other to counter the pitcher’s delivery. Additionally, It is not uncommon for the switch-hitter to achieve a higher batting average from one side of the plate and hit for more power from the other. Neither has been the case for Pablo Sandoval thus far in 2010 leaving fantasy baseball owners and stat geeks scratching their heads. Despite hitting for a higher average (.297) and more power (all six of his home runs) from the left side of the plate versus right handed pitching, Pablo has also grounded into 12 double plays. From the right side of the plate versus left handed pitchers, Sandoval is hitting .211 with zero home runs and has grounded into five double plays. Just 11 games before the All-Star Break, Kung-Fu Panda has grounded into eighteen double plays. This puts him on pace to surpass the current record by ten, for a season total of 39. In comparison, the greatest switch-hitter to ever play the game, Mickey Mantle, never grounded into more than 11 double plays in a single season. Additionally, despite not being a switch-hitter, Josh Hamilton of the Texas Rangers has yet to ground into a single double play through 320 plate appearances in 2010. Written by Alan Harrison for thefantasyfix.com with an assist to Juan Carlos! Are there any other current players that have a legit shot to break a modern day MLB record? Leave us a comment or hit us up on Twitter! Tags: Fantasy Sports Advice, Fantasy Baseball Advice, The Fantasy Fix, MLB, Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals, Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees, Pablo Sandoval, San Francisco Giants, Mark Reynolds, Arizona Diamondbacks, Billy Butler, Kansas City Royals, Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies |
