2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Advice & Analysis
 
The most common representation of a players production is their slash line which consists of Batting Average, Slugging Percentage, and On-Base Percentage. Generally, we look at the players Slugging Percentage as a measure of their ability to get extra base hits and drive in runs. But the formula for Slugging Percentage uses singles, and what kind of power measure includes singles? Any MLB player can slap a ball down for a single from time to time.  We want extra base hits because that's what drives in runs and produces the stats that are near and dear to us.

SABR recognized this and created a complementary stat to Slugging Percentage which did not account for singles. The formula they came up with was:  

ISO = (2B + 2*3B + 3*HR)/AB

For all of you math nerds out there who passed Algebra II... you may notice that the formula for ISO is Slugging percentage minus Batting Average. The best power hitters in the game will have an ISO around .300 and anyone with an ISO over .200 is hitting for power at a good clip. An ISO below .200 indicates that a vast majority of the players hits are not going for extra bases.

When looking at the league leaders in ISO we find a who's who of the big bats in baseball. This year, its no surprise that Jose Batista is lapping the field with a .336 ISO. Trailing Batista is Adam Dunn at .300 and Miguel Cabrera at .290. This isn't very surprising and isn't very helpful, but that's because we're looking at the league leaders. We need to dig a little deeper and find some interesting players.

For example, tied with Ryan Howard and Mark Teixeira with a .236 ISO is... Colby Rasmus. Now we've known that Rasmus can hit for power, but it's surprising that he hits at a comparable rate as Howard and Teixeira? If you talk to Fantasy "Experts", they might throw Rasmus' name around in potential 20/20 guys, but it is becoming more and more evident that Rasmus is going to have the power to hit 30 and even 40 Home Runs. Rasmus just turned 24 this month and only has 19 Home Runs this year, but going into next year, make a note that he has tremendous upside power.

On the flip side of ISO, take a look at Jorge Cantu. He slots into the middle line-up because he's supposed to have a big bat. If you were standing next to him, you'd expect him to be a power hitter (he looks the part). But if you take a look at his ISO, and talk to his owners, he just doesn't have the power you think he does. He's posting a .138 ISO this year and a career .173 ISO. Sure he can drive in some runs and have nice stretches like he did this spring, but Cantu doesn't hit for as much power as advertised. Even in 2008 when he hit 28 HR and drove in 95, he still only posted a .204 ISO.

In the end, the stat is the end all/be all. There is always room for argument.  But when you're searching for value out there, ISO is a good reason to bump a player up or knock them down a bit. Someone like Rasmus has more value than his standard stats may suggest and that's what we're looking for when evaluating fantasy value... a little stat like ISO could direct you towards a championship.

Written by James Weston for theFantasyFix.com. When James isn't spittin' statistics down on paper he's hacking away at Fantasy apps at http://valuetownfantasy.com  You can also find him on Twitter @TheRealJamesA

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Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, Fantasy Sports Blog, ISO, Slugging Percentage, Adam Dunn, Colby Rasmus, Jose Bautista, Mark Teixeira, Ryan Howard, Miguel Cabrera
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Batting Average on Balls In Play = (Hits - Home Runs) / (At Bats - Strikeouts - Home Runs + Sacrifice Flies)

The purpose of Batting Average on Balls In Play, BABIP, is to add a luck factor which can be used when evaluating players previous production.  BABIP is a ratio of plate appearances to the numbers of balls put into play.  The result is a ratio similar to Batting Average, however it is measured on a scale which removes home runs and strikeouts.  By removing Home Runs and Strikeouts, BABIP measures the numbers of times which a hit fell when a defender had the opportunity to make a play on it.  If we agree that defenders will get to balls at the same rate over the long run, then BABIP shows us how lucky or unlucky a player is based on their deviation from the mean.

This statistic can be used with both pitchers and hitters, but it has been found to be much more useful in regards to pitching.  For hitters, BABIP can be influenced by skill much more than luck.  A hitter has the ability to run out infield singles and shoot gaps to influence BABIP.  But a pitcher who faces many different hitters, BABIP will fall gravitate to a mean.  Research has found that the mean for BABIP is around .300 and the conclusion can be drawn that anyone with a higher BABIP is unlucky (lucky/good for hitters)...lower than .300 and you're lucky (unlucky/bad for hitters).

When evaluating pitching, BABIP can be used to explain other statistics like standard 5x5 stats ERA and WHIP.  A high BABIP is generally a sign that a pitcher will improve upon their previous production.  The higher BABIP means that more hits are falling which have a negative impact on ERA and WHIP.  But we expect BABIP to be around .300 and in-order for that to take place, we expect a regression to bring the average to the mean.  So to get to .300, there will be a period of low BABIP to account for the higher BABIP in the past.

Lets look at some examples

How bad was Mike Pelfrey in July?  Well to go along with his 10.01 ERA, Pelfrey put up a insane BABIP of .482!!!  Seriously, half of the balls which were put into play fell for base hits.  There is no way that a rate like that could ever keep going.  Even with his amazing start, his BABIP is .342 for the year, so we should expect improvement to finish the season off.  But keep in mind that Pelfrey has a career BABIP higher than .300, so it may not be a serious improvement.
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Mat Latos
On the flip side of BABIP this year is Mat Latos.  He has put together a very strong year so far and his BABIP is down to .234.  Again, we should expect this rate to trend towards the mean.  So should we expect Latos to have a severe downswing?  No....  But we should not expect him to keep up the same rates he's produced so far.  We should expect his rates to increase from where they are today.  If the numbers don't increase.....he's a lucky man.

One last thing to take into account when evaluating BABIP is the defense behind the pitcher.  Earlier I stated that we need to work with the assumption that defenders will get to balls at the same rate over the long run.  However, it is safe to assume that pitchers for teams with good defense have a lower BABIP than a pitcher who is on a team with bad defense.  So take that into account when looking at numbers that haven't deviated far from the mean.  Use the entire teams BABIP and compare that with the pitchers BABIP to adjust your assumptions.

For Fantasy purposes, BABIP is a great tool to use to gauge some hidden value.  It can be used to sell high or buy low.  On draft day, use BABIP to discount a break out season or to justify an upcoming rebound year.  In our game we need all the help we can get, if you're not using BABIP, you're not seeing the whole picture.


Have any other good BABIP examples? 
Leave us a comment or hit us up on Twitter @TheFantasyFix!

Written by James Weston exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. You can follow him on Twitter @TheRealJamesA.

Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Sports Blog, Fantasy Baseball, Sabermetrics, MLB, BABIP, Mike Pelfrey, Mat Latos, New York Mets, San Diego Padres
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