2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Advice & Analysis
Shhhhh….if you listen closely you can hear the huge sigh of relief from the Brazilian contingency on tour! The Billabong Pro Tahiti held at Teahupoo – the greatest spectator surf contest in the world has been regulated to nothing more exciting than the US Open in Huntington Beach. This is my favorite contest to watch on tour…when there is swell. It keeps the best surfers in the world awake at with sweats and images of being impaled on the deadly reef at Teahupoo. But this year, like last year – nothing.  Tamaroa McComb I selected my team for the contest based on my hope for a solid swell. I went with a crew of guys known to charge anything thrown their way. With no swell for the entire contest waiting period, I know I should have gone back and altered my line up and replaced my die hard chargers like Andy Irons, Kelly Slater and the Hobgoods with Brazilian air reverse kings Jadson Andre and Adriano de Souza. However, stupidly, I am sticking with my team. I am still holding out for a magical phantom swell that will send the weak to the reef and the heavies into the winners circle. Tamaroa Mccomb – local wildcard –cheap- and local knowledge may get him the best waves Manoa Drollet – see above – if there was swell he would go far Damien Hobgood – how is it that Floridians are some of the best barrel riders on the planet? CJ Hobgood – see Damien!  Andy Irons Andy Irons – expect an early exit – 3 foot Teahupoo will not keep his attention Kelly Slater - needs a win to keep title hopes alive Bobby Martinez – previous contest winner and can do well in sub-par conditions Fred Patacchia – goofy footer barrel rider Patrick Reilly is not a grom. He is actually the Fantasy Surfer Editor @TheFantasyFix.com. Email - Patrick@thefantasyfix.com Who is in your starting lineup for the Billabong Pro Tahiti? Let us know on Twitter @TheFantasyFix! Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Sports Blog, Fantasy Surfer, Pro Surfing, Patrick Reilly, Billabong, Billabong Pro Tahiti, Andy Irons, Kelly Slater, Jadson Andre, Adriano de Souza, Tamaroa McComb, Manoa Drollet, Damien Hobgood, CJ Hobgood, Bobby Martinez, Fred Patacchia Add Comment Greetings fantasy baseballers and welcome to another edition of the Wire. Hopefully you heeded the past weeks’ advice and picked up Pat Burrell, Mike Minor, Daniel Hudson and others, before it was too late. This week is sort of a special edition with a look at a trio of closers – mostly of the present, and mostly with no future. Regardless, they have one thing in common – they will receive the lion’s share of save opportunities for their respective teams. That translates to the potential to rack up some fantasy points all over the land. And the first contestant is…  Hisanori Takahashi, RP – NYM – Owned in 18% of CBS leagues Mr. Takahashi has been somewhat of an enigma for the Metropolitans this season. He had success as a reliever early on, often times bailing out the starters by providing two or three innings of solid relief. In fact, in his first 15 relief appearances for the Mets, he went two-plus innings seven times. Before being moved into the rotation on May 21, Takahashi put up three wins with a 3.12 ERA in 24.2 IP and a 33:14 K:BB ratio – not too shabby. At that point, the Mets rotation started to fall apart and he was summoned to the rotation. In 12 starts, he did not fare nearly as well, posting a 4-4 record with a 5.01 ERA while surrendering 73 hits in 64.2 innings. In addition, opposing hitters batted a robust .291 against him in those starts. Manuel had seen enough of Takahashi the starter and summoned Takashi the reliever, replacing him with Pat Misch in the rotation. Now with the Francisco Rodriguez meltdown and subsequent thumb injury, Manuel has named Takahashi his closer. He brings a year of closing experience from his tenure in the Japanese league. In his sole save opportunity, he closed out the Astros in a hitless inning this week. You can ride Takahashi for as long as Manuel keeps him as the closer. Keep in mind that the Mets also have Bobby Parnell, who has pitched well as of late. Manual may throw some save chances his way to see how he performs in a late-inning role. Hong-Chih Kuo, RP – LA – Owned in 13% of CBS leagues The main difference between Kuo and Takahashi is that Kuo has been in a late inning relief role for his team, the Dodgers, the entire season. Furthermore, he has posted great stats thus far and has been the bridge that every team searches for to get the ball to the closer. Unfortunately for Jonathan Broxton, the now-deposed closer, Kuo has pitched so well that he’s replacing Broxton, for the time being at least. If the Dodgers have any chance of making the playoffs, they cannot afford any more meltdowns by the usually-dominating Broxton. This was the main impetus behind Joe Torre’s decision to switch their roles in the ‘pen. Including Kuo’s first two save opportunities, he has put up an ERA of 1.48 on the season, which was inflated by more than half a run after his implosion against Atlanta. Torre summoned Kuo in the 8th inning, much like he used to with Mariano in his Yankee days. Kuo ran into trouble in the 9th and blew the save. In 42.3 innings pitched this season, Kuo has a tremendous 52:14 K:BB ratio with a miniscule 0.85 WHIP along with three wins and four saves. Kuo has been nothing short of dominant this season and now stands to gain a boat-load of value in fantasy leagues. One would have to believe that as long as he’s successful in the closer’s role, Torre will leave him there. The Dodgers also have Octavio Dotel to vulture a few saves, but for now Kuo is the closer in LA. He’s a must-add to fantasy rosters as CBS owners have demonstrated, making him the most added player in CBS fantasy leagues. His ownership will jump to 47% next week, which is still rather low. Grab him while you can. Trevor Hoffman, RP – MIL – Owned in 27% of CBS leagues Mr. Hoffman has had a rocky 2010 thus far. In the first half of the season, he was tagged for four losses and blew five of his ten save opportunities. He had an ERA of 8.33 heading into the All-Star break. In 27 innings, he gave up 25 runs on 34 hits along with an unimpressive 17:13 K:BB ratio. These are hardly the numbers expected from Hoffman, or any closer in the league for that matter. Since the All-Star break, Hoffman has had a bit of a resurgence. In 12 appearances, his ERA is a more respectable 3.09 along with a 10:4 K:BB ratio. Opposing batters are hitting only .227 against him versus .306 before the break. With Milwaukee out of the playoff race and not much else to play for, manager Ken Macha has decided to give Hoffman save opportunities once again. The Brewers would love for Hoffman to reach the 600 save mark and give them something to cheer about in the closing weeks of the season. John Axford presumably will continue to get his chances as well, which makes Hoffman far from a sure thing to score significant points for your team. Regardless, Macha will give him every chance to add to his save total. If you have the stomach for it, pick up Hoffman sooner rather than later and hope for the best, especially if you need to bolster your Save category. HONORABLE MENTION Omar Infante, 2B – ATL – Owned in 34% of CBS leagues Filled in admirably for Martin Prado at 2B and will get regular AB’s with Chipper out for the season. Hits righties and lefties well. Batting .361 since the break with a .862 OPS and has hit over .300 every month except for one this season. Jose Guillen, OF – SF – Owned in 45% of CBS leagues Guillen will get a decent amount of AB’s in SF. While he won’t hit for average, he surely has some pop left in his bat. Hitting .375 for the Giants since the trade and has 17 HR’s on the season. Chris Denorfia, CF – SD – Owned in 4% of CBS leagues Denorfia is batting .321 since the break with a 1.039 OPS. He has six homers and 16 RBI plus four SB’s in the second half. Solid pick up for deeper leagues. Written by Rosti Satanovsky exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. You can follow him on Facebook or Twitter@TheSportsFariah Who are your NL waiver wire gems of the week? Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on Twitter@TheFantasyFix Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, Fantasy Sports Blog, The NL Wire, Waiver Wire, Mike Minor, Pat Burrell, Daniel Hudson, Hisanori Takahashi, Pat Misch, Francisco Rodriguez, Hong-Chih Kuo, Jerry Manuel, Jonathan Broxton, Joe Torre, Octavio Dotel, Trevor Hoffman, John Axford, Ken Macha, Omar Infante, Martin Prado, Jose Guillen, Chris Denorfia, New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers, Milwaukee Brewers, Atlanta Braves, San Francisco Giants, San Diego Padres  The Big Bats of Pedroia & Utley returned Tuesday The second base position just got a whole lot beefier, as today three of the positions top guns have been activated from the disabled list. Proud owners of Dustin Pedroia, Chase Utley and Martin Prado have been forced to plug holes with stragglers like Adam Kennedy and Blake DeWitt. Now is your time to rejoice. Dustin Pedroia returns to the Red Sox after breaking his left foot nearly two months ago on June 26th. In his stead, Bill Hall received the majority of starts at 2B, with Eric Patterson and Jed Lowrie also seeing action. Hall hit 12 homers after Pedroia went down, providing a decent clutch for fantasy owners. Hall will likely get significant starts in CF with Jacoby Ellsbury heading back to the DL after more pain in his slow healing fractured ribs. While Pedroia might not be 100% game ready, he is still a must start in all leagues. But be wary, he does tend to run in red-hot and ice-cold streaks. A slow start is a realistic expectation while he shakes off the rust. He was hitting .292 with 12 HR and 41 RBI prior to the injury, and had raised his average .38 points in June (from .254). Right thumb surgery has sidelined Chase Utley since June 29th. It had long been speculated that Utley was struggling with the thumb, forcing him to make adjustments to his swing. That could very well be the reason for his average production in the season's first three months. His .277, 11 HR, 37 RBI stat line looks solid for most second baseman, but for Utley those figures are a disappointment. If Utley is pain free, expect a big final push from him once he settles in. His stroke is the epitome of 'simple' and it shouldn't take him long to rediscover it. Placido Polanco will now shift back to third base full time, and Wilson Valdez will hit the bench. The 32-year-old Valdez did a more than admirable job being thrust into regular action, but was never a fantasy option. A career utility man, Martin Prado's fractured finger might have come at an ideal time (well, no injury is ideal). His batting average had plummeted .22 points from .337 to .315 in the month of July suggesting he needed a breather. Maybe sitting on the sidelines for a short while and re-energizing his body will be a positive in the long run. Unlike his 2B compatriots, he's only been out since July 31st and could find his groove in a flash. All-star selection Omar Infante continued to rake in his absence putting up seven multi-hit games thus far in August. Infante possesses position eligibility all over the diamond, and should continue to see regular AB's at third base with Chipper Jones on the shelf for the year. Once again, Troy Glaus could be the big loser. In other injury news, Charlie Manuel characterized first baseman Ryan Howard's chances of returning to the lineup before Friday as "slim". Howard has been out since August 2nd with sprained ligaments in his ankle. He's eligible to come off the DL today, but that's obviously not happening. How exactly the Phillies plan to handle his rehabilitation remains unclear. Patience is the key my fantasy brethren, patience. Meanwhile, Mike Sweeney will continue to get the bulk of starts at 1B and is a realistic option in NL-only leagues until big #6 returns. Written by Adam Ganeles exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Look for Adam's weekly insight into Major & Minor League Ball. Who do you think will have the strongest return, Pedroia, Utley or Prado? Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on twitter @TheFantasyFix Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, Fantasy Sports Blog, Return from Injury, Dustin Pedroia, Chase Utley, Martin Prado, Jacoby Ellsbury, Bill Hall, Eric Patterson, Jed Lowrie, Adam Kennedy, Blake DeWitt, Placido Polanco, Wilson Valdez, Omar Infante, Chipper Jones, Troy Glaus, Ryan Howard, Jerry Manuel, Mike Sweeney, Boston Red Sox, Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves The most common representation of a players production is their slash line which consists of Batting Average, Slugging Percentage, and On-Base Percentage. Generally, we look at the players Slugging Percentage as a measure of their ability to get extra base hits and drive in runs. But the formula for Slugging Percentage uses singles, and what kind of power measure includes singles? Any MLB player can slap a ball down for a single from time to time. We want extra base hits because that's what drives in runs and produces the stats that are near and dear to us. SABR recognized this and created a complementary stat to Slugging Percentage which did not account for singles. The formula they came up with was: ISO = (2B + 2*3B + 3*HR)/AB For all of you math nerds out there who passed Algebra II... you may notice that the formula for ISO is Slugging percentage minus Batting Average. The best power hitters in the game will have an ISO around .300 and anyone with an ISO over .200 is hitting for power at a good clip. An ISO below .200 indicates that a vast majority of the players hits are not going for extra bases. When looking at the league leaders in ISO we find a who's who of the big bats in baseball. This year, its no surprise that Jose Batista is lapping the field with a .336 ISO. Trailing Batista is Adam Dunn at .300 and Miguel Cabrera at .290. This isn't very surprising and isn't very helpful, but that's because we're looking at the league leaders. We need to dig a little deeper and find some interesting players. For example, tied with Ryan Howard and Mark Teixeira with a .236 ISO is... Colby Rasmus. Now we've known that Rasmus can hit for power, but it's surprising that he hits at a comparable rate as Howard and Teixeira? If you talk to Fantasy "Experts", they might throw Rasmus' name around in potential 20/20 guys, but it is becoming more and more evident that Rasmus is going to have the power to hit 30 and even 40 Home Runs. Rasmus just turned 24 this month and only has 19 Home Runs this year, but going into next year, make a note that he has tremendous upside power. On the flip side of ISO, take a look at Jorge Cantu. He slots into the middle line-up because he's supposed to have a big bat. If you were standing next to him, you'd expect him to be a power hitter (he looks the part). But if you take a look at his ISO, and talk to his owners, he just doesn't have the power you think he does. He's posting a .138 ISO this year and a career .173 ISO. Sure he can drive in some runs and have nice stretches like he did this spring, but Cantu doesn't hit for as much power as advertised. Even in 2008 when he hit 28 HR and drove in 95, he still only posted a .204 ISO. In the end, the stat is the end all/be all. There is always room for argument. But when you're searching for value out there, ISO is a good reason to bump a player up or knock them down a bit. Someone like Rasmus has more value than his standard stats may suggest and that's what we're looking for when evaluating fantasy value... a little stat like ISO could direct you towards a championship. Written by James Weston for theFantasyFix.com. When James isn't spittin' statistics down on paper he's hacking away at Fantasy apps at http://valuetownfantasy.com You can also find him on Twitter @TheRealJamesA Follow us on twitter @TheFantasyFix Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, Fantasy Sports Blog, ISO, Slugging Percentage, Adam Dunn, Colby Rasmus, Jose Bautista, Mark Teixeira, Ryan Howard, Miguel Cabrera  David Murphy Start ‘Em David Murphy | Texas Rangers | 12.8% : Over the last three years Murphy has hit .417 with 3HRs 10RBI in only 36 at-bats at Camden Yards, one of the parks he’ll see this week. Against the other team he faces this week, Tampa Bay, Murphy has hit .345 with 8 of his 19 hits for extra-bases. His current hot streak should help propel him into a strong upcoming week. Pedro Alvarez | Pittsburgh Pirates | 25% : The ever increasingly hot rookie is poised for a big week. All week long he will have the benefit of home field where he’s hitting .287 with a .352 OBP. Nine of his ten HRs have been hit at home, and he hits 100 points higher at home as well. His OPS is a whopping 422 points higher at home! Mike Stanton | Florida Marlins | 39.2% : The upcoming away series at Houston should be great for Stanton owners. He has hit 140 points higher on the road (.327 avg. .398 OBP 1.081OPS away!!!). Those stats and his current hot streak and the poor performance of the Pittsburgh pitching staff should equate to a good week for Stanton.  Brett Gardner Sit ‘Em Ike Davis | New York Mets | 28.1% : Davis has been cold of late and this upcoming week shouldn’t warrant you taking any chances on this Met. Both of his games this week come away from Citi Field. On the road Davis is hitting .223 with a .288 OBP. Further dowsing the fire is his .227 avg. since the All-Star break. Leave him on the waiver wire where he belongs. Brett Gardner | New York Yankees | 99.7% : Gardner has been horrid since the All-Star break. He’s hitting .174 with a .296 OBP in the 69 at-bats since. Adding to his problems is his combined stats against the Tigers and Mariners, next week’s opponents. He’s hitting a combined .219 and going two for three in steals in 32 at-bats against those teams. Hitting 15 points higher at home might help him out, but don’t count on it.  Brett Anderson Two-Start Pitchers To Use Jonathon Niese | New York Mets | 15.5% : The two teams he faces in the upcoming week have very limited at-bats against him and are batting .067 against him in this limited sample. The main reason for Niese’s strong upcoming week is both Houston and Pittsburgh’s stats against left-handed pitching. Houston is the fourth-worst team in the NL against lefties (.250 avg., .306 OBP) and Pittsburgh is the second-worst hitting team against lefties in all of baseball (.244 avg., .312 OBP). Look for Niese to keep his WHIP low and hopefully score some wins for the reeling Mets. Brett Anderson | Oakland A’s | 81% : Next week Anderson faces a few teams that have some pop in there lineup. Don’t be timid though, every major power threat on both the Blue Jays and Rays is a right-handed batter. His career mark against righties is .239, and this year he has continued to lower it by keeping them to a .208 avg. Two more facts will help keep the balls in the park against Anderson. He has one of the best ground to fly-ball ratios in the majors this year (1.34) and both games will be at home in the Coliseum, the third-worst park for homeruns in the majors.  Jon Garland Two-Start Pitchers To Avoid Jon Garland | San Diego Padres | 55.1% : Garland’s career numbers at Wrigley exhibit a 5.50 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP. Mix that with his numbers this year away from spacious PETCO Park (4.52 ERA and a .267 BAA) and you have a recipe for a benching. Rich Harden | Texas Rangers | 39.4% : Those of you hoping for a turnaround in the oft-injured Harden should keep hoping for a new week. His career numbers against the Rays are bleak: 32 innings of 5.01 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. Considering both of his starts are away this upcoming week it’s also advised to take note of his ERA outside of the Ballpark in Arlington this year (6.40 ERA and 11 HRs in only 45 innings), ironic for being such a hitter-friendly park. Hind Sight Here we take a look at last week’s decisions and whether they might have paid off or not. All hind sight stats are through the end of games on Friday, August 13th. Start ‘Em: Bill Hall | Boston Red Sox | : .235 avg. .250 OBP 2 Runs 2 HRs 4 RBI. The batting average isn’t stellar but if you picked him up for the power and RBI production then you have reaped the benefits so far. Chris Johnson | Houston Astros | : .429 avg. .467 OBP 2 Runs 4 RBI. Chris Johnson continues to stay hot. With trade deadlines approaching, now is a great time to get him if he’s still available in your league. Jon Jay | St. Louis Cardinals | : .333 avg. .368 OBP 3 Runs 1 RBI. So far it has been a great decision if you did pickup/start Jay. The guy can rake and even though he can’t help in every category, he’s an asset to the one’s he can help. Sit ‘Em: Jack Cust | Oakland A’s | : .333 avg. 5Ks in 12 ABs. This is a small sample size through the week so far, yet the four strikeouts is a lot in only seven at-bats. Overall, this was a so-so sit, better if your league has a strikeout category for hitters. Jay Bruce | Cincinnati Reds | : .333 avg. in 9 ABs with 1 HR 3 RBI . Of course he hits one out right before I submit this article. Thanks for making me look bad. Pitchers To Use: Max Scherzer | Detroit Tigers |: 7IP 4H 1ER 4BB 2K Ervin Santana | Los Angeles Angels |: 6.1P 6H 3ER 1BB 3K Pitchers To Avoid: Jair Jurrjens | Atlanta Braves |: 7.1IP 6H 1ER 1BB 3K Edwin Jackson | Chicago White Sox |: 6IP 6H 1ER 1BB 7K All Statistical Information was obtained through ESPN.com Written exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com by James Bryce. James is a Grad student at UCSD and is currently in his 13th year of fantasy sports. Agree or disagree with James? Want to make a suggestions? Leave a comment at the top or respond to us on Twitter! Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, Week 20, Forecast, Two-Start Pitchers, Sit 'em, Start 'em, James Bryce, MLB, David Murphy, Pedro Alvarez, Mike Stanton, Ike Davis, Brett Gardner, Jon Niese, Brett Anderson, Jon Garland, Rich Harden 2010 Fantasy Football's Top Ten Running Backs: Not Named Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson or MJD 08/13/2010
 Michael Turner 1- Ray Rice (BAL) - Without a doubt, the best RB outside of the Big 3 is Ray Ray. In fact, he may have a better year than any of the Big 3. He’s got a better overall offense than Chris Johnson or Maurice Jones Drew with the addition of Anquan Boldin. The only thing that may hurt him will be the use of Willis McGahee or Le'Ron McClain near the end zone. Either way, Ray Ray is going to put up big numbers and be a fantasy stud. Especially in PPR leagues where he can gain points catching the ball out of the back field. 2. Michael Turner (ATL) - If you’re drafting late in the first round, Mike Turner may be your blessing. Look for Mike to bounce back and be that “burner” again, despite an injury plagued 2009/10 season. Atlanta has a nice playoff schedule with games in Carolina and Seattle that would look to feature Turner’s running attack. They also have a game versus New Orleans in which if ATL wants to win, they’ll have to keep the ball on the ground and out of Brees’s hands. I look for “The Burner” to be the Comeback Player of the Year and post 300+carries, 1500+yards, 10+TD’s which all may mean for your fantasy team… CHAMPIONSHIP.  Cedric Benson 3. Cedric Benson (CIN) - Ochocinco may have been doing a dance when Cincinnati signed Terrell Owens, but I guarantee that Benson was the choreographer. Cedric had a nice 2009/10 season, but look for him to get more red zone opportunities with the addition of TO. Carson Palmer needs to live up to the hype he gained before his knee injury and shake off the elbow injury. This should be a year in which the Bengals offense makes it easier for their great defense. With no other RB behind Benson, look for him to post 300+ carries and be your fantasy stud. 4. Steven Jackson (StL) – Jackson is an interesting player to watch. He has all the tools you want in a running back. He can run, catch, has size and speed, but plays in one of the worst offenses in the league. If the addition of Sam Bradford at the quarterback position pans out, then SJax is primed to have a great fantasy year. He is one of the few every down RB’s in the league without an RB committee around him. After coming off back surgery, will he be able to handle the load? That’s the big question for him and his fantasy owners. **Buyer Beware**  Frank Gore 5. Frank Gore (SF) – Gore has been San Francisco’s lone bright spot in their offense for the past four years. He’s one of the few every down RB’s with no back-up threat. If Alex Smith can play up to his first round pick selection, then Gore may have a shot at fantasy stardom. Frank typically has a great first half of the year, but then due to injuries, slumps in the second half. If he can stay healthy, he may be a steal in the late first or second round for your fantasy squad. 6. Rashard Mendenhall (PIT) – Again, playing without a RB committee is a hard thing to find in the NFL now, so Mendenhall is a great option for fantasy owners. PIT is looking to return to their roots by being a smash-mouth, run-defense oriented team again, especially with Ben Roethlisberger on the shelf for at least four to six games. Look for Rashard to have a ton of carries and catches out of the backfield in the first couple of weeks. Mendenhall may get your team off to the start it needs to make the playoffs.  Jamaal Charles 7. Jamaal Charles (KC) – Charles had a big second half last year. He was able to post huge numbers with everything from running the rock, catching out of the backfield and kick returns. If your league is a PPR league, then JC may be a great pickup in that KC will most likely be down big pts in the 2nd half of games and rely heavily on the pass to get them back in the game. I look for JC to post 40-60 catches this year or better and be a great pick me up for your cause. 8. DeAngelo Williams (CAR) – Williams is a great low second round pick up. The only problem for owners is the competition from Jonathan Stewart. If the NFL magically made their stats into one, then we would have the number one pick year in and year out. Baring injury, Williams has received more carries and is more versatile catching the ball, but Stewart has been the hammer. Stewart has been getting more and more carries late in the year to preserve Williams, so if they’re in the playoff hunt DeAngelo’s stock will drop. If your staring Williams in the face, hopefully you’ve taken a better QB already. **Buyer Beware** He’s either gonna give you a big year or be the reason you’re out of the playoffs.  Ryan Grant 9. Ryan Grant (GB) – The only thing good about Grant is that he plays for a high powered offense and doesn’t have much competition from Brandon Jackson. He seems to only play big in the playoffs (fantasy & NFL). Other than that, he tends go into hibernation because his regular season fantasy numbers don’t match him being the every down back for a great offense. Aaron Rodgers will continue to have a big year, but if Green Bay wants to contend for a championship Grant has to be a bigger part of their offense. 10. Beanie Wells (ARZ) – Wells is now the man in the desert. Tim Hightower may steal some goal line scores, but look for Beanie to carry the load. Now without Kurt Warner, look for Arizona to feature a more running back friendly offense… if they want to win the NFC West again. Outside looking in- Shonn Greene (NYJ) – With Ladainian Tomlinson looking to steal carries Greene's stock falls and only time will tell how much. Don't get too worried though, Greene is a monster who will put up great numbers by season's end. Knowshon Moreno (DEN) – Due to the losses of superstars in Denver, Knowshon will have to carry the load. Barring any injuries, look for him to get points from everywhere out of the backfield. Ryan Mathews (SD) – This rookie comes in with great hype. Realistically, he plays in a pass first offense with another RB making a ton of money. I look for him to have some good games, but his overall season to be average or just a little bit above. I wouldn’t make him your first RB, but may be a good situational second. Check his matchups and he may even be great trade bait for you to get your team over the hump and into your fantasy playoffs. Written by Mike Rodriguez exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. You can email him: Mike(at)TheFantasyFix(dot)com or Follow him on the Twitter account he doesn't use: @FantasyFix_Mike Agree or disagree with Mike's rankings? Let us know. Leave a comment at the top right of the post or hit us up on twitter @TheFantasyFix Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Advice, 2010, NFL, Running Backs, RB, Ray Rice, Michael Turner, Cedric Benson, Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, Rashard Mendenhall, Jamaal Charles, DeAngelo Williams, Ryan Grant, Chris "Beanie" Wells, Shonn Green, Knowshon Moreno, Ryan Mathews Every season, we under or overvalue players in the offseason; it’s the nature of the beast. Whether it is personnel changes around them, scheme changes, or injury concerns, something jumps out and makes us either love or hate a player before the season even begins. Earlier this week, we looked at a few of the quarterbacks who I believe are undervalued and overvalued, based on their Average Draft Position (ADP). Today, we’ll consider some running backs who’s ADP doesn’t quite match their value. (Note that just because I think someone is overrated, doesn’t mean I don’t think they will perform this season. I just think the cost of drafting them is too high. Likewise, if someone is underrated, it doesn’t mean they will be the top fantasy scorer at their position, just that they will outperform their draft position.)  UNDERRATED Ricky Williams (ADP 69, RB 30) Despite putting up scoring more fantasy points than Ryan Grant (ADP 21) and Jonathan Stewart (ADP 31) in 2009, Williams is again going significantly lower than them in 2010 drafts. Ricky may be on wrong side of thirty (he turned 33 in May) and competing with Ronnie Brown for touches, but the curious case of Ricky Williams is not one to be ignored. He took off, essentially, two full seasons from 2006-2007, and by all accounts takes tremendous care of himself. Last year’s stats may be atypical, and I don’t expect him to match that production this season, but he will certainly outpace his draft position. As the 30th running back off the board, he is being drafted as a flex player, but should give mid-level RB2 stats with the occasional spikes when Brown misses a few games. Williams offers a great return on investment with a very reasonable floor.  OVERRATED Rashard Mendenhall (ADP 11, RB 8) Mendenhall’s road to fantasy stardom is not paved as finely as some would have you believe. His quarterback is suspended for the first 4-6 games, his right tackle is out for the season with a torn Achilles tendon, his pets’ heads are falling off. OK, the last one isn’t true (as far as I know), but the point remains that the Steelers are having a rough offseason. Add to that, Mendenhall has consistently had problems with short yardage and goal line situations, and his price tag this early seems inflated. Although rookie Jonathan Dwyer appears to have drawn the ire of the coaching staff, Mendenhall still doesn’t seem likely to fill the role of the team’s goal line back. Ultimately he’s a mid to upper-level RB2 with a RB1 price tag.  UNDERRATED Thomas Jones (ADP 90, RB 37) Jones is another guy on the wrong side of thirty (he turns 32 next week) who, like Ricky Williams, is playing a few years below his age. It wasn’t until his fifth year in the NFL that he surpasses 140 carries in a season. Now in Kansas City, Jones will likely split carries 50-50 with Jamaal Charles, which is a good thing for Jones’ owners. Limiting his touches will take an appreciable toll on his yardage totals, but it should allow him to make it through the entire season healthy and fresh. Head coach, Todd Haley, seems high on Jones, and has referred to him as a “beast.” He won’t be the 1400 yard, 14 TD he was in 2009, but he is certainly in a position to vulture enough goal line looks to stay fantasy relevant. Drafted 37th among running backs, he should finish the season in the top 20-25 at his position, making him a solid RB2.  UNDERRATED Justin Forsett (ADP 113, RB 42) Forsett is getting sleeper hype from all angles this offseason, and I’m jumping right on the bandwagon. Despite an underwhelming offensive line and a number three spot on the depth chart, Forsett’s chances for a breakout year look promising. He was the most consistently productive back in Seattle last season, averaging 5.4 yards per carry (YPC). Despite his small stature, a heavier workload doesn’t appear to be a problem for Forsett, whose YPC increased to 6.3 in games where he logged at least 10 carries. His excellent pass-catching skills only add to his value, solidifying him as an excellent flex with upside for RB2 production.  OVERRATED Ryan Mathews (ADP 17, RB 11) I get the hype, I really do. He’s a big, strong back who dominated the college ranks (the WAC isn’t the SEC, but it’s also not high school) who looks to get the bulk of the carries for an offensive juggernaut in the San Diego Chargers, stepping into the vacated shoes of future Hall of Famer LaDainian Tomlinson. He’ll also be playing under Norv Turner, who somehow turned Lamont Jordan into a 1,000 yard back. Ryan Mathews will have a solid rookie campaign, but I’m not so sure he’ll take over like some expect. Because of that, he is a risk I am not willing to take this early in the draft. The mid-late rounds are the time to roll the dice; this early in the draft is all about reliability and minimizing risk. I’d love to hit a homerun in the first two rounds, but my primarily goal is not to miss. In the new NFL, with dynamic aerial offenses becoming the standard, I am not investing a second round pick in an unproven rookie when studs like Reggie Wayne (ADP 17) and Miles Austin (ADP 21) are still on the board. Note for PPR leagues: Mathews had 19 total receptions in 3 seasons at Fresno State, so don’t be surprised to see him replaced by Darren Sproles on passing downs.  OVERRATED C.J. Spiller (ADP 61, RB 27) He’s a human highlight reel with absurd speed and great ability in space. He reminds me a lot of Reggie Bush, which is both a compliment and a disclaimer. Spiller has the same physical build as Bush, largely the same skill set and a lot of the same limitations to his game. Also like Bush, Spiller will be second on the depth chart behind an undrafted running back whose skills are more suited to being an every-down back. The Bills will move him all over the field to try and get him the ball, and he’ll take on at least some return duties. But Buffalo’s offense is one of the worst in the league, which will limit Spiller’s ability to reach the endzone on a regular basis. Unless you play in a points-per-reception (PPR) league where touchdowns are devalued, Spiller isn’t worth the price. The man ahead of him on the depth chart, Fred Jackson (ADP 76) is going two rounds later, and is a much better value. *Average Draft Picks taken from mockdraftcentral.com Written by Chris Sheehan exclusively for the www.thefantasyfix.com. Chris is an avid football fan and has been playing fantasy football for over ten years. Check back for more great articles from him weekly. Do you agree/disagree that these running backs are over or underrated? Which other players do you feel fit into this category? Leave us a comment or reply to us on Twitter @TheFantasyFix Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Sports Blog, Fantasy Football Advice, Fantasy Football, NFL, ADP, Draft, Ricky Williams, Thomas Jones, Justin Forsett, Rashard Mendenhall, Ryan Matthews, C.J. Spiller, Reggie Bush, Fred Jackson, LaDainian Tomlinson, LaMont Jordan, Reggie Wayne, Miles Austin, Darren Sproles, Norv Turner, Johnathan Dwyer, Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs, Seattle Seahawks, Pittsburgh Steelers, San Diego Chargers, Buffalo Bills, Dallas Cowboys, Indianapolis Colts, Denver Broncos Welcome back fantasy players, to another edition of The NL Wire. You may recognize a few of this week’s players as top minor league prospects. Meanwhile, a few others you may recognize as usual suspects on the free agent wire. Either way, consider all of them as possible worthy fantasy contributors to your squad and jump on them before the competition does.  Mike Minor, SP – ATL – Owned in 6% of CBS leagues Minor was recently promoted from the minors to take the rotation spot of another one of Atlanta’s young guns – Kris Medlen. The former first round, seventh overall pick in 2009, has realized his childhood dream of playing for the team he followed throughout his youth. In his first start against the Astros, he had the following line: 6 IP/5 H/3 ER/1 BB/5 K and did not factor into the decision. In his brief minor league career (four starts in ’09 and 21 in ’10) Minor has shown the Braves’ brass enough to get the nod. In his starts this year, combined between AAA-Gwinnett and AA-Mississippi, Minor is only 6-7 but has put up gaudy numbers otherwise – K:BB ratio of 146:44, 3.44 ERA/1.15 WHIP and 10.9 K’s/9 innings. The downside to his numbers is that he’s already logged 120 innings on the season and is sure to receive the so-called “rookie pitcher treatment” in the final two months. In fact, with an off day this week, the Braves are already pushing his next start to Tuesday. On the bright side, he will be on track for two starts in Week 20. Even though Minor lacks experience (which hasn’t stopped Stephen Strasburg, Mike Leake and Drew Storen, his fellow 2009 first round draft picks), he possesses the tools to be a successful starter for Atlanta. He features a fastball topping out in the mid 90’s and a quality slider with bite. Minor is worth a look in deeper mixed leagues, and most certainly in all keeper leagues.  Carlos Ruiz, C – PHI – Owned in 34% of CBS leagues To be perfectly honest, I had to ask myself a number of times whether this selection was worthy of even mentioning. Ruiz, at age 31, is hardly an unknown commodity or rising star in baseball. But, he’s being added to fantasy leagues a dizzying rate, jumping from 34% ownership this week to 71% next week. This will rank him as the number one added player in all of CBS leagues (if you can believe that). It speaks more to the lack of decent options at the ultra-slim catching position than anything else. At the same time, since Ruiz was activated from the DL right after the All-Star break, he’s been on a tear. In 24 games, he’s batting .313 (25 hits) with three HR and 14 RBI and has an OPS of .858. These numbers are well above his career stats considering Ruiz is a lifetime .254 hitter with an OPS of .733. Ruiz is worthy of a roster spot while he’s hot. Once his bat starts to cool, be prepared to jump off the Ruiz Express.  Daniel Hudson, SP ARI – Owned in 36% of CBS leagues The market for Arizona starting pitchers has been slow to heat up and understandably so. In fact, no Diamondbacks pitcher is owned in more than 49% of CBS fantasy leagues. Last week, I wrote about Barry Enright, one of the other young promising pitchers for the D-backs. This week, the spotlight is on Hudson, who was acquired in the July 31st trade deadline from the White Sox in exchange for Edwin Jackson. Hudson, a fifth round pick of Chicago in 2008, quickly swept through four levels of their minor league affiliates. He posted a 14-5 combined record with a 2.32 ERA and 166 K in 147 innings. Hudson got his first taste of the majors in ’09 with three appearances out of the bullpen before taking over for Gavin Floyd in the rotation after Floyd was injured. In three starts for the D-backs since the trade (all wins), he has gone 22 2/3 innings, allowing only four earned runs on 13 hits with 17 strikeouts to only four walks issued. With a combined 124 IP on the season thus far, Hudson is also approaching the rookie limit most teams impose on their young starting pitchers. Even still, he is an attractive option as the D-backs will surely want to see what he can do the remainder of the season. Pick him up in NL-only leagues, deeper mixed leagues and all keeper leagues. Honorable Mention: Johnny Venters, RP – ATL – Owned in 8% of CBS leagues Has done a spectacular job all season coming out of the ‘pen for ATL. In 57 2/3 innings he has posted four wins plus a save. Throw in 61 K and 1.09 ERA/1.00 WHIP and this makes him a worthy addition in deeper leagues. Dexter Fowler, CF – COL – Owned in 21% of CBS leagues Fowler is off to a sizzling start in August - .333 BA/.907 OPS, after a solid month in July - .287 BA/.921 OPS and 25 runs in 26 games plus five SB and 11 RBI. He’s producing across the board. Pat Burrell, OF – SF – Owned in 9% of CBS leagues Pat “The Bat” has resurfaced in San Francisco as an everyday player. Since the trade from TB - .282 BA/8 HR/23 RBI and a 1.102 OPS (what??). He’s become a solid contributor. *Written by Rosti Satanovsky exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. You can follow him on Facebook or Twitter@TheSportsFariah Who are your waiver wire gems of the week? Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on Twitter@TheFantasyFix Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, Fantasy Sports Blog, The NL Wire, Waiver Wire, Mike Minor, Kris Medlen, Stephen Strasburg, Mike Leake, Drew Storen, Carlos Ruiz, Daniel Hudson, Edwin Jackson, Gavin Floyd, Johnny Venters, Dexter Fowler, Pat Burrell, Atlanta Braves, Washington Nationals, Cincinnati Reds, Philadelphia Phillies, Arizona Diamondbacks, Chicago White Sox, Colorado Rockies, San Francisco Giants In our last piece, we looked at late round prospects that are still under the radar, but who may be poised for breakout seasons. But the bottom of the draft is not the only place to find a great deal. Getting a player with 3rd round value in the 4th-5th round is a coup in itself (it’s the little things, isn’t it?). Every season, we under or overvalue players in the offseason; it’s the nature of the beast. Whether it is personnel changes around them, scheme changes, or injury concerns, something jumps out and makes us either love or hate a player before the season even begins. Over the next two weeks, I will take a look at a few players at each position who I believe are undervalued and overvalued, based on their Average Draft Position (ADP). Note that just because I think someone is overrated, doesn’t mean I don’t think they will perform this season. I just think the cost of drafting them is too high. Likewise, if someone is underrated, it doesn’t mean they will be the top fantasy scorer at their position, just that they will outperform their draft position. Let us begin with the quarterbacks…  Donovan McNabb UNDERRATED Donovan McNabb (ADP 104) McNabb was a top 12 QB last year despite missing 2 games. Considering his replacement, Kevin Kolb, threw for 700+ yards and 4 TDs in his stead (vs NO, vs KAN), I would argue that McNabb would’ve been a top 8 QB had he played those games. Presumably, his lower draft position (25 spots behind Kolb, now the starter in Philly) is out of concern for his supporting cast. But McNabb has done more with less before, and he still remains a viable fantasy starter. And his career average 2.5 rushing TDs per season, should help to buoy his value, even if his legs aren’t what they once were. Currently the 14th QB off the board, behind the (retired?) Brett Favre, McNabb will deliver QB1 stats at a QB2 price. Carson Palmer (ADP 107) Palmer threw the ball fewer times in 2009 than in any other full season he has played. It appears Cedric Benson will avoid a suspension. These signs alone might indicate that Palmer’s ADP is about right and that the Bengals will continue with a smash-mouth style that limits Palmer’s ceiling. But a pair of season-ending beatdowns suffered at the hands of the Jets underscored the Bengals’ need to develop a downfield passing threat. They attempted to do so by drafting Jermaine Gresham, a pass-catching tight end out of Oklahoma, and signed Antonio Bryant and Terrell Owens. While they will still try to pound the ball on the ground early and often, the Bengals didn’t add these new weapons to play decoy for Benson. Expect the running game to setup the downfield play-action to maximize Palmer’s yards-per-attempt. A return to 2005-2006 form (3900+ yds, 30 TDs, 12.5 INTs avg.) may not be in order, but a top 10 finish among QBs shouldn’t surprise anyone. Chad Henne (ADP 132) I’m not going to extrapolate the pass attempts he got at the end of last season (40+ in 3 of the last 5 games) into a full season and predict record-breaking campaign. However, you may have heard that the Dolphins traded for Brandon Marshall this offseason. That’s the same Brandon Marshall who caught 101 balls for 1120 yards and 10 touchdowns last season from Kyle Orton. Say what you will about Henne but his arm is stronger than Orton’s, and the difference in talent between Marshall and Ted Ginn Jr., who Miami traded to San Francisco, is more a chasm than a gap. With defenses honing in on Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown in the backfield, there should be plenty of room for Henne to find Marshall’s big body, especially in the red zone. He’s not going to lead the league in passing, nor will he revolutionize the position, but he’s a bargain as a QB2 with potential to leapfrog into a low-end QB1. He’s being drafted amidst Defenses, so the cost is negligible.  OVERRATED Eli Manning (ADP 94) Many will point to New York’s hot start in 2009 before Brandon Jacobs inability to stay healthy as reason to grab this gunslinger in the middle rounds. I’ll argue that those are reasons to avoid Eli in 2010. First, the “hot start.” More than one-third of Manning’s TDs (10 of 27) came in the first 5 games of the season - against Washington, Dallas, Tampa, Kansas City and Oakland. With the exception of Dallas (a wildly inconsistent team in their own right), these teams were considered a “gimme” for most opponents. Once the injury bug bit the Giants’ backfield, the team’s offense was thrown into disarray. While some people would argue that highlights just how well Manning performed, I’m not so easily convinced. With neither Jacobs nor Ahmad Bradshaw healthy enough to shoulder the load, the Giants were forced to rely on Eli’s arm. This year, with a renewed dedication to the defensive side of the ball, we could see a return to a ball-control offense relying on a healthy dose of Jacobs and Bradshaw, which will cap Eli’s ceiling. He’s a decent low-end QB1, but with other options available deeper in the draft, I’d prefer to invest in a Thomas Jones (ADP 90) or Montario Hardesty (ADP 88) in this spot and grab someone with more upside later. Jay Cutler (ADP 71) Everything you’ve heard about the Mike Martz offense is true: the playbook is a 12-volume tome that you need a PhD to fully understand, the TEs are persona non-grata, and the quarterback will throw the ball until his arm falls off. The bazooka-armed Cutler may seem like a great fit for a high volume offense, and there is virtually no chance he doesn’t throw for 4,000 yards in 2010. But unless you’re in a league that doesn’t penalize for turnovers, the monster yardage totals will be, largely, offset by 20+ interceptions. And with an offensive line that can be generously described as tenuous, expect Cutler to take a beating on a weekly basis. Cutler, like Manning, is a decent low-end QB1 (perhaps with a slightly higher ceiling), but is not worth the price. He is currently being drafted just after Ricky Williams (ADP 69) and before Fred Jackson (ADP 76), both of whom I would rather have in the mid-rounds. Matt Ryan (ADP 80) The Boston College has made a phenomenal transition to the NFL and, in the process, has saved the Falcons franchise from oblivion after the Michael Vick debacle. In two seasons, he has led his team to the playoffs and to the franchise’s first ever back-to-back winning seasons. Unfortunately, none of that counts in our stat-based fantasy football world. The Falcons are a run-first team who will rely on Michael Turner to shoulder the load. Matt Ryan is a solid backup, but is being drafted as a starter. Use this mid-round pick to stock up at WR or RB, and grab a more fantasy-friendly QB, such as those listed above, later in the draft. *Average Draft Picks taken from mockdraftcentral.com. Written by Chris Sheehan exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Chris is an avid football fan and has been playing fantasy football for over ten years. Check back for more great articles from him weekly. Do you agree/disagree that these quarterbacks are over or underrated? Which other players do you feel fit into this category? Leave us a comment or reply to us on Twitter @TheFantasyFix Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Sports Blog, Fantasy Football Advice, Fantasy Football, NFL, ADP, Draft, Quarterback, Donovan McNabb, Washington Redskins, Chad Henne, Miami Dolphins, Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals, Eli Manning, New York Giants, Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons, Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears  Slugger supreme Chris Carter is expected to join the Athletics in Seattle for their upcoming road trip. The 6'5", 230-pound Carter is the top position prospect in the A's system and one of most fearsome power sticks in the minor leagues. Carter has connected on 119 long balls since 2007, including 27 in 2010. A first baseman by trade, he's been camped out in left field for the Sacramento River Cats since July 28 in what is likely a portent of what's to come. Carter, 23, is tearing the cover off the ball right now, making this a most ideal time for his promotion. He finished July batting .318 with nine HR and 22 RBI. Perhaps of greater importance, he had 20 walks, his highest total for any month this season. Though he had 26 whiffs in 28 games, this is acceptable with his level of production. Through eight games in August he's hitting .333 with three HR and 13 RBI, improving his walk-to-strikeout ratio to 6:6. The switch seems to have clicked for Carter. His power and patience are clearly evident and his ticket to the show. Carter is more than a HR basher, he's a run producer, as evidenced by his .308 mark with runners in scoring position. Where does Carter fit into the A's puzzle? Current first baseman Daric Barton left Sunday's game with shoulder spasms and is listed as day to day. Carter appears to be the only adequate fill-in while Barton recovers. Once he does, Carter will be given his opportunity for everyday at-bats in left field, with an occasional breather at DH. Despite his deficient power, the A's love Barton's Moneyball approach and ability to work the pitcher. They believe he's their first baseman of the future (for now). As long as that's the case, Carter's future is in left field. It's hard to figure why the Athletics were so apprehensive with Carter. Two career minor leaguers, 29-year-old OF Matt Carson and 31-year-old OF Matt Watson, have essentially inhabited his roster spot. Both are hitting near the Mendoza Line and are unlikely to make any current or future impact. Even bringing back Jack Cust, who was demoted prior to Opening Day, seemed like a bizarre move with a spring chicken like Carter waiting in the wings. The A's were never a contender and knew full well what they had in Cust; a slow bat and K machine. This is Carter's sixth season in minor league ball, but his first full season in AAA. Carter's bat finally said "enough is enough," and his play on the diamond demanded a call to the big leagues. In keeper leagues with no minor league spots, now is the time to act. He's worth a flier in re-draft leagues as well, based on his power potential alone. His batting average might not be delightful initially and his strikeout rate may be escalated, but he should produce nonetheless. Granted, Oakland Coliseum is not exactly a hitter's paradise. But Carter is a big man; when he hits one on the sweet spot and gets it elevated, no park will contain him. How big league pitchers attack him, and his subsequent adjustments, should be interesting to observe over the season's final two months. Written by Adam Ganeles exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Look for Adam's weekly insight into A, AA, & AAA ball. How good do you think Carter will be? Will he be as good or better than Jason Heyward? Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on twitter @TheFantasyFix Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, Fantasy Sports Blog, Chris Carter, Oakland Athletics, Call-up, Jack Cust, Matt Watson, Matt Carson, Daric Barton, Jason Heyward |
