Slugger supreme Chris Carter is expected to join the Athletics in Seattle for their upcoming road trip. The 6'5", 230-pound Carter is the top position prospect in the A's system and one of most fearsome power sticks in the minor leagues. Carter has connected on 119 long balls since 2007, including 27 in 2010. A first baseman by trade, he's been camped out in left field for the Sacramento River Cats since July 28 in what is likely a portent of what's to come.Carter, 23, is tearing the cover off the ball right now, making this a most ideal time for his promotion. He finished July batting .318 with nine HR and 22 RBI. Perhaps of greater importance, he had 20 walks, his highest total for any month this season. Though he had 26 whiffs in 28 games, this is acceptable with his level of production.Through eight games in August he's hitting .333 with three HR and 13 RBI, improving his walk-to-strikeout ratio to 6:6.The switch seems to have clicked for Carter. His power and patience are clearly evident and his ticket to the show.Carter is more than a HR basher, he's a run producer, as evidenced by his .308 mark with runners in scoring position.Where does Carter fit into the A's puzzle?Current first baseman Daric Barton left Sunday's game with shoulder spasms and is listed as day to day. Carter appears to be the only adequate fill-in while Barton recovers. Once he does, Carter will be given his opportunity for everyday at-bats in left field, with an occasional breather at DH. Despite his deficient power, the A's love Barton's Moneyball approach and ability to work the pitcher. They believe he's their first baseman of the future (for now). As long as that's the case, Carter's future is in left field. It's hard to figure why the Athletics were so apprehensive with Carter. Two career minor leaguers, 29-year-old OF Matt Carson and 31-year-old OF Matt Watson, have essentially inhabited his roster spot. Both are hitting near the Mendoza Line and are unlikely to make any current or future impact. Even bringing back Jack Cust, who was demoted prior to Opening Day, seemed like a bizarre move with a spring chicken like Carter waiting in the wings. The A's were never a contender and knew full well what they had in Cust; a slow bat and K machine. This is Carter's sixth season in minor league ball, but his first full season in AAA.Carter's bat finally said "enough is enough," and his play on the diamond demanded a call to the big leagues. In keeper leagues with no minor league spots, now is the time to act. He's worth a flier in re-draft leagues as well, based on his power potential alone. His batting average might not be delightful initially and his strikeout rate may be escalated, but he should produce nonetheless.Granted, Oakland Coliseum is not exactly a hitter's paradise. But Carter is a big man; when he hits one on the sweet spot and gets it elevated, no park will contain him. How big league pitchers attack him, and his subsequent adjustments, should be interesting to observe over the season's final two months.
Written by Adam Ganeles exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Look for Adam's weekly insight into A, AA, & AAA ball.
How good do you think Carter will be? Will he be as good or better than Jason Heyward?
Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on twitter @TheFantasyFix
Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, Fantasy Sports Blog, Chris Carter, Oakland Athletics, Call-up, Jack Cust, Matt Watson, Matt Carson, Daric Barton, Jason Heyward
 Juan Francisco, 3B Cincinnati AAA Line - .283, 15 HR, 45 RBIFrancisco missed 31 games between May-June due to an emergency appendectomy. Since his return he's hit .298 with 22 runs, 11 doubles, 11 HR and 26 RBI. In ten games since the ASB he's batting .317 with seven HR and 15 RBI. He's up there to swing the bat, not draw walks (12 BB, .322 OBP). But his .566 SLG% is outstanding. Francisco has been in the Reds system since 2006, and has crushed the ball at every level. He was also named Dominican League MVP this winter, leading the league in HR (11) and RBI (42). Defense at third is not his strength, but it suits his lack of mobility. He will likely move to first base in another organization. Freddie Freeman, 1B Atlanta AAA Line - .295, 14 HR, 63 RBIAfter a slow start to his inaugural AAA campaign, Freeman is rapidly picking up the pace. He hit .333 in July with six HR and 22 RBI. His strikeout totals are a bit bloated with 39 in his last 51 games, but not a major concern. He's already well surpassed his power totals from AA in 2009 (eight & 58). He's a double machine with 33, 27 and 24 the last three seasons respectively. With Jason Heyward in the bigs, Freeman is the prized offensive jewel of the Braves system. Troy Glaus' is already hitting the pine, so it will be Freeman’s job to lose in 2011. He hit .333 in spring training with seven RBI. Ivan DeJesus, 2B LA Dodgers AAA Line - .297, 5 HR, 43 RBIDeJesus missed nearly the entire 2009 season with a broken leg. It was an extremely unfortunate injury coming off the heels of a terrific 2008 season in AA where he hit .324 with seven HR, 58 RBI, 16 stolen bases and a .419 OBP. He's slowly worked his way back into game shape batting .333 since June 1st. But the speed element has all but disappeared, attempting only five SB and swiping four. He's done exceptional work with RISP, hitting .375 and knocking in 37 of his 43 runs. DeJesus is not blessed with potent home run pop, but he's been a consistent doubles man. With five full minor league seasons under his belt, DeJesus deserves to showcase his talents. Newly acquired Ryan Theriot is arbitration eligible through 2012. Craig Kimbrel, RH RP Atlanta AAA Line - 2-1, 13 SV, 57 KThe power-armed reliever left a strong impression during his eight game stint with the big club. He struck out 15 batters in 8 1/3 innings, allowing only four hits and one run. The problem was he also walked ten batters, unable to command any offerings consistently. He's picked up right where he left off in the International League. In 13 July innings, he's K'd 17 and issued 15 BB. Of his nine hits allowed, two have been long balls (first HR's allowed all season). All of his splits are scary good, including a 1.71 GO/AO ratio and .158 BAA. There's little doubt that Kimbrel has the stuff to assume the Braves closer sooner rather than later. However, his BB totals are unacceptable for a late inning reliever. Until he shows the ability to throw strikes, he'll either be in AAA or middle relief. Michael Bowden, RH SP Boston AAA Line - 6-3, 3.67 ERA, 67 KBowden's statistics tell two very different stories. First the good: in 95 2/3 innings of work he's allowed just 74 hits (.216 BAA) and walks about three batters per nine. The ugly: His GO/AO ratio is 0.34 and he doesn't miss bats, striking out 67, or one every 1.4 innings. Usually it would be safe to say there's a fair bit of luck on his side, but his minor league numbers have been consistent over the years. Poor GO/AO and low BAA. He hasn't finished with a ground ball rate over 1.00 since 2006. It's hard to figure how, but he's making it work. The deception in his pitching motion must play a role. He hides the ball well and has a funky delivery, perhaps giving him the margin for error he needs to succeed. Bowden's minor league success has yet to carry over to the major league level, in 16 innings in '09, he pitched to a 9.56 ERA and .333 BAA. Jeanmar Gomez, RH SP Cleveland AAA Line - 8-8, 5.20 ERA, 78 KThe 22-year old Gomez pitched 7 innings of zero earned run ball in his ML debut on July 18th, but it was a spot start only. He's been sharp as a tack in two AAA starts since, appearing to have turned the metaphorical corner. He's pitched a combined 15 innings of 13 hit, three ER ball. In addition, he's struck out 11 and walked just one. Coming from a guy who has allowed 129 hits in 116 innings and on the year, that’s quite a change of fortune. Confidence can take you a long way, and his victory over the Tigers has immediately boosted his mound efficiency and productivity. With Jake Westbrook just dealt and the Indians in youth mode, Gomez will be given a second go around (5 IP 2 ER on 8/11).
*stats as of 8/2/10
Written by Adam Ganeles exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Look for Adam's weekly insight into A, AA, & AAA ball.
Excited for any of these guys to get the callup?
Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on twitter @TheFantasyFix
Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, Fantasy Sports Blog, Juan Francisco, Freddie Freeman, Ivan DeJesus, Craig Kimbrel, Michael Bowden, Jeanmar Gomez, Jason Heyward, Troy Glaus, Ryan Theriot, Jake Westbrook, Cleveland Indians, Detroit Tigers, Boston Red Sox, Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Dodgers, Cincinnati Reds
The season is long and right now it's coming down to the wire for the top owners in their respective leagues. These few players that are poised for either a huge week or a week you will want to avoid. Pay attention, this could mean winning or not winning your league.  Chris Johnson Start 'Em:
Bill Hall | Boston Red Sox | 2.1%: Take a walk on the wild side with this streaking player. In his last 15 games Hall has crushed 4HRs with an OPS of .979. In the next week he'll be playing at both Yankee Stadium (Number one HR factor field) and the Ballpark in Arlington (Number two HR factor field), two of the best places to hit for power.
Chris Johnson | Houston Astros | 52.5%: Chris Johnson has been hotter than the sun over the last two weeks. While he probably wont be able to maintain these astounding numbers, he will most likely be able to post large numbers for the upcoming week. Five of the six starters that Johnson will face are right handers. Hitting righties is Johnson's strength: .364 avg. 1.000 OPS in 107 ABs. He also has 4HRs and 20RBIs against righties as well.
Jon Jay | St. Louis Cardinals | 7.8%: Since his call-up, Jay has been a pure hitter. He's been raking ever since and has yet to stop. In his 32 ABs this year against the Reds and Cubs Jay is hitting .406 with an OBP of .441. Unfortunately, Jay is mainly a three-trick pony depending on how many categories your league has. He can typically be expected to help in average, on-base, and runs.
Sit 'Em:
Jay Bruce | Cincinnati Reds | 76% : Bruce's upcoming stretch against the Cardinals is going to be brutal for his owners. Bruce's career numbers against the Cardinals are: .199 avg, .259 OBP. Not to mention he is currently on a long cold streak, hitting .188 over the last 30 games.
Jack Cust | Oakland A's | 10% : Jack Cust and the rest of the Oakland A's have the worst schedule for power this upcoming week. They will be playing at Safeco and Target Field next week. These two fields are the third-worst and worst fields for homeruns. Cust has also slowed down as of late, hitting .222 over the course of the last seven games.
 Ervin Santana Two-Start Pitchers To Use: Max Scherzer | Detroit Tigers | 86% : Scherzer has been fairly dominant as of late. Fantasy players should look for him to continue this dominance through his upcoming two-start week. His first start comes against the Rays at home. Scherzer is 6-2 at home this season and has a 2.90 ERA since the All-Star game. Further supporting his start, the Rays are hitting .091 (2 for 22) against him for their career. Scherzer has pitched against the White Sox twice this year with fairly strong numbers. In the 14 innings against them Scherzer has a 3.14 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP and a K/9 ratio of nine. Ervin Santana | Los Angeles Angels | 86.8% : Santana has been on a skid as of late but he should be able to correct this with his upcoming two starts. His first opponent is Kansas City then Toronto, both starts coming at home. In a combined 33.1 innings this year against both teams Santana has 2.47 ERA and a 3-1 Win-Loss record. In over 250 ABs, the players of both teams have a combined career batting average against Santana of .255. Two-Start Pitchers To Avoid: Jair Jurrjens | Atlanta Braves | 77% : Jurrjens has pitched with mixed success since coming back from the DL this season. Now is not the time to take a chance on the two-start opportunity he faces this upcoming week. His career against the Dodgers goes to the tune of a 4.03ERA, a 1.61 WHIP, and a .284 BAA. Meanwhile, the heart of the Dodger's order (Ethier, Kemp, Loney) have a collective career .360 avg. against Jurrjens. Jurrjens has faced the Astros a limited amount and has not done much better. His ever descending GB/FB rate should put his start in the Band Box of Minute Maid Park. Edwin Jackson | Chicago White Sox | 40% : Jackson's two-start week is bound for disaster. His first start is against Baltimore, at Baltimore. Normally Baltimore is not much of a threat, but in three starts at Camden Yards Jackson has a 6.48 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. His next start against his old team the Tigers at his new home at U.S. Cellular Field. At U.S. Cellular Field Jackson has a career 4.88 ERA 1.63 WHIP, and players are hitting .301 against him. Fantasy owners have to also take into account that U.S. Cellular Field is the second-most homerun friendly park in existance.Hind Sight:
For curiosity sake, here is how last week's predictions held up through games as of 8-6:
Start 'Em
Jorge Cantu: One for four. Played in only one game.
Josh Willingham: .357 avg. .438 OBP, 0R 0HR 1RBI. The hitting is great, but there is more to fantasy than two categories.
Rajai Davis: .200 avg. .273 OBP, 3R 1HR 2RBI
Sit 'Em
David Wright: .063 avg. 1 for 16 as of print time. Gotta pat myself on the back for this call.
Matt Kemp: .400 avg. .471 .OBP, 2R 1HR 3RBI. His 5-5 game inflates last week's line
Carl Crawford: .125 avg. .222 OBP, 2R 0HR 2RBI. The Runs and RBI are decent, but Crawford should be held to higher standards.
Pitchers:
Travis Wood: 7IP 2H 0ER 1BB 4K
Mat Latos: 6IP 4H 2ER 2BB 6K
All Statistical Information was obtained through ESPN.com
Written exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com by James Bryce. James is a Grad student at UCSD and is currently in his 13th year of fantasy sports.Who are some two-start pitchers you will be avoiding this week?Leave a comment or send us a tweet @TheFantasyFix
Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Sports Blog, Week 19, MLB, Two-Start Pitchers, Sit 'em Start 'em, James Bryce, Jon Jay, Chris Johnson, Bill Hall, Jay Bruce, Jack Cust, Max Scherzer, Ervin Santana, Jair Jurrjens, Edwin Jackson, Jorge Cantu, Josh Willingham, Carl Crawford, David Wright, Matt Kemp, Travis Wood, Mat Latos, Rajai Davis
 Thomas Diamond Thomas Diamond, P – CHC –Owned in 0% of CBS leagues
The former Sun Belt Conference Pitcher of the Year and 2004 first round draft pick of the Rangers is going to get a look by the Cubbies, to hopefully fill one of their back-end rotation spots. By trading Ted Lilly toLa-La Land, the Cubs opened up a spot to get a glimpse (hopefully) of the future. In addition to Lilly’s trade, Carlos Silva’s premature departure from his last start (irregular heartbeat) and his to be determined status leaves a gaping hole in their rotation.
Diamond was used exclusively as a starter by Triple-A Iowa this year and has already thrown 108 innings in 21 starts. He has posted 104 K’s with an ERA of 3.16 and a WHIP of 1.22 in those starts.
He was impressive in his first major league outing and lived up to his billing as strikeout pitcher. He rung up ten Brewers in six innings, but the Cubs offense could not back him up. Diamond ended up taking the loss while the Cubs dropped yet another one-run game and now stand at 13-25 on the season in those games. Diamond will get a second shot at his long-awaited first victory this week against Cincinnati on Sunday. As long as he remains in the rotation, Diamond is worth a flier in deeper fantasy leagues and without a doubt in all keeper leagues.
Barry Enright, P – ARI – Owned in 13% of CBS leagues
Enright quietly moved into the Diamondbacks’ rotation and represents the winds of change out in the desert. As Arizona looks to build for the future (again), they have assembled an arsenal of young arms in Joe Saunders, Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson. Enright was summoned to the big league club in June and has done an admirable job of holding down his rotation spot. In six starts he has a 2.77 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP with a 25:13 K to BB ratio. Unfortunately the D’backs have not put him in position to win very many games and therefore, he has two wins to show for his efforts.
Enright showed plenty of promise in his ascent through the minor leagues compiling 346 K’s in 431.3 innings with only 92 free passes allowed. In two+ years as a starter in the minors, he has improved on his ERA from 4.42 to 3.98 to 2.89 (1.03 WHIP) before his call-up this season.
Enright has given up three earned runs or more only once this season and went eight innings a few weeks ago against the anemic Mets offense with a season high eight K’s. There is surely enough promise here for the former second round pick of Arizona to ride him through this season and next season in keeper leagues.
 R.A. Dickey R.A. Dickey, P – NYM – Owned in 56% of CBS leagues
Unlike most of the other players mentioned here, Dickey is far from a rising star or a top prospect. Everyone knows the saga of the 35-year old journeyman knuckleballer. Dickey bounced between the bullpen and starting rotation in the AL (Twins, Mariners, Rangers) for quite a few years. Last year he posted the lowest ERA of his career for the Twins, a less than inspiring 4.63 to go with a robust 1.62 WHIP. In 34 games (one start) Dickey had 42 K’s to go along with 30 bases on balls.
He signed a minor league deal with the Mets and put up decent numbers for the Triple-A Buffalo affiliate this year. In eight starts he had two complete games; a 2.24 ERA along with a miniscule 1.04 WHIP. If that’s not convincing enough, he had a mind-blowing 37:8 K:BB ratio. It was only a matter of time before he was called up to replace one of the many struggling Mets starters.
That time came back in May when most scoffed at the notion of wasting a roster spot on Dickey (including yours truly). But all he has done since is to solidify his spot in the rotation with a number of impressive performances (most recently a 4-hit/0 ER 8.1 inning outing against STL). Dickey is 7-4 with a 2.36 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and a 64:28 K:BB ratio in 99 IP (15 starts – averaging almost 7 innings per start). It’s time to forget history and hop onboard the Dickey express if he’s still available in your league.
Honorable Mention: Aaron Heilman, RP – ARI – Owned in 8% of CBS leagues
De facto closer in Arizona since Chad Qualls was traded to TB and Juan Gutierrez was placed on the DL. He has a respectable 3.30 ERA with 37 K’s in 49 IP and has been more solid as of late.
Ian Desmond, SS – WAS – Owned in 31% of CBS leagues
Possesses a decent mix of power and speed for a SS (7 HR’s/9 SB’s). Batting .370 over his last eight games after putting up 3 HR’s/12 RBI/3 SB’s in July while batting .300.
Tom Gorzelanny, SP – CHC – Owned in 36% of CBS leagues
When Big Z went AWOL, Gorzelanny was thrust back into the starting rotation. Since then he has four W’s in six starts with 33 K’s. Overall as a starter he has six W’s and 3.63 ERA with 82 K’s in 86.2 IP. Written by Rosti Satanovsky exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. You can follow Rosti on Twitter @TheSportsFariah
Got any other NL wire picks?Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on Twitter @TheFantasyFixTags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Sports Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, National League, NL Only, Waiver Wire, Ian Desmond, Tom Gorzelanny, Aaron Heilman, R.A. Dickey, Barry Enright, Thomas Diamond
 With catcher John Buck on the 15-day DL, it was the perfect opportunity for the Blue Jays to call up their stud in waiting, J.P. Arencibia. Let's take a quick look at why Blue Jays fans and fantasy owners are getting excited... AAA Line - .306, 30 HR, 77 RBI The former Tennessee Vol was the Blue Jays first round selection in 2007. Arencibia was leading the Pacific Coast League in homers and ranks third in runs driven in at the time of the call-up. He hit .400 in June with 10 home runs and 23 RBI, and followed it up with a .301, 12 HR, 28 RBI July. Oddly enough, 28 of his 30 home runs have come against right-handed pitching. He's batting only .226 in 84 AB against left-handed pitching. Arencibia raised his batting average .70 points from 2009 on the same level of competition. The Jays possess two other top catching prospects in Travis d'Arnaud (21) and Carlos Perez (19), but both are still in A-ball. Written by Adam Ganeles exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Look for Adam's weekly insight into A, AA, & AAA ball.
Is J.P. Arencibia capable of being the next Posey or Santana?
Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on twitter @TheFantasyFix
Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, Fantasy Sports Blog, J.P. Arencibia, John Buck, Travis d'Arnaud, Carlos Perez, Toronto Blue Jays
After the J Bay contest, I am in 659th place out of 15,164 active players. My line up for the contest changed a bit from my initial line up and unfortunately most of my team under performed. My team for the contest was Jordy Smith, Kelly Slater, Mick Fanning, Taylor Knox, Andy Irons, Nate Yeomans, Timmy Reyes and Dale Staples. Going into the contest, I thought this line up would do excellent. However, the over scoring of local Sean Holmes, knocked Slater and Irons out and ruined my chance of a high placing. Below is the breakdown of how my team performed.
Jordy Smith - 1st place - he has arrived - old school power and new school moves for the "new" judging criteria - watch out Slater and bye bye Fanning and Parko.
 Mick Fanning Mick Fanning - 9th - lousy - world champs don't lose to a backsider at J Bay! Hobgood is no Occy.
Andy Irons - 9th - respectable - but taken out by over scored wildcard Sean Holmes- I have been harsh on AI, but he seems to be sobering up and his surfing shows -hope he keeps going!
Kelly Slater - 17th - beaten by an over scored local wildcard Sean Holmes - but if he is only putting up 13 points in a heat, he deserves to lose. 9 time champs do not lose to a wildcard!
 Kelly Slater Nate Yeomans -17th - not bad, but will he make the cut or will he be sent back to the minors? Adios Nate!
Taylor Knox - a 33rd on a wave designed for you? This makes no sense. Is the end here for the old man of the tour? I hope not, but it looks that way.
Timmy Reyes - wildcard - only wins one heat - seems that the Edison High School Charger has never recovered from the knee injury
Dale Staples - local wildcard - loses first two heats
Next up on August 23rd is the Teahupoo,Tahiti contest and it if it HUGE, Smith and the young guys on tour will have to prove that they have the brass to surf one of the most dangerous waves on the planet.
Stay tuned for my prediction for the Billabong Pro Tahiti.
Patrick Reilly is not a grom. He is actually the Fantasy Surfer Editor @TheFantasyFix.com.
Email - Patrick@thefantasyfix.com
Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Sports Blog, Fantasy Surfer, Pro Surfing, Patrick Reilly, Billabong, Billabong Pro Tahiti, Dale Staples, Timmy Reyes, Taylor Knox, Nate Yeomans, Kelly Slater, Mick Fanning, Andy Irons, Jordy Smith
Batting Average on Balls In Play = (Hits - Home Runs) / (At Bats - Strikeouts - Home Runs + Sacrifice Flies)
The purpose of Batting Average on Balls In Play, BABIP, is to add a luck factor which can be used when evaluating players previous production. BABIP is a ratio of plate appearances to the numbers of balls put into play. The result is a ratio similar to Batting Average, however it is measured on a scale which removes home runs and strikeouts. By removing Home Runs and Strikeouts, BABIP measures the numbers of times which a hit fell when a defender had the opportunity to make a play on it. If we agree that defenders will get to balls at the same rate over the long run, then BABIP shows us how lucky or unlucky a player is based on their deviation from the mean.
This statistic can be used with both pitchers and hitters, but it has been found to be much more useful in regards to pitching. For hitters, BABIP can be influenced by skill much more than luck. A hitter has the ability to run out infield singles and shoot gaps to influence BABIP. But a pitcher who faces many different hitters, BABIP will fall gravitate to a mean. Research has found that the mean for BABIP is around .300 and the conclusion can be drawn that anyone with a higher BABIP is unlucky (lucky/good for hitters)...lower than .300 and you're lucky (unlucky/bad for hitters).
When evaluating pitching, BABIP can be used to explain other statistics like standard 5x5 stats ERA and WHIP. A high BABIP is generally a sign that a pitcher will improve upon their previous production. The higher BABIP means that more hits are falling which have a negative impact on ERA and WHIP. But we expect BABIP to be around .300 and in-order for that to take place, we expect a regression to bring the average to the mean. So to get to .300, there will be a period of low BABIP to account for the higher BABIP in the past.
Lets look at some examples
How bad was Mike Pelfrey in July? Well to go along with his 10.01 ERA, Pelfrey put up a insane BABIP of .482!!! Seriously, half of the balls which were put into play fell for base hits. There is no way that a rate like that could ever keep going. Even with his amazing start, his BABIP is .342 for the year, so we should expect improvement to finish the season off. But keep in mind that Pelfrey has a career BABIP higher than .300, so it may not be a serious improvement.
 Mat Latos On the flip side of BABIP this year is Mat Latos. He has put together a very strong year so far and his BABIP is down to .234. Again, we should expect this rate to trend towards the mean. So should we expect Latos to have a severe downswing? No.... But we should not expect him to keep up the same rates he's produced so far. We should expect his rates to increase from where they are today. If the numbers don't increase.....he's a lucky man.
One last thing to take into account when evaluating BABIP is the defense behind the pitcher. Earlier I stated that we need to work with the assumption that defenders will get to balls at the same rate over the long run. However, it is safe to assume that pitchers for teams with good defense have a lower BABIP than a pitcher who is on a team with bad defense. So take that into account when looking at numbers that haven't deviated far from the mean. Use the entire teams BABIP and compare that with the pitchers BABIP to adjust your assumptions.
For Fantasy purposes, BABIP is a great tool to use to gauge some hidden value. It can be used to sell high or buy low. On draft day, use BABIP to discount a break out season or to justify an upcoming rebound year. In our game we need all the help we can get, if you're not using BABIP, you're not seeing the whole picture.
Have any other good BABIP examples? Leave us a comment or hit us up on Twitter @TheFantasyFix!Written by James Weston exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. You can follow him on Twitter @TheRealJamesA.Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Sports Blog, Fantasy Baseball, Sabermetrics, MLB, BABIP, Mike Pelfrey, Mat Latos, New York Mets, San Diego Padres
Greeting sports fans, and welcome to this special analysis of the trade deadline moves and their impact on fantasy players. There was a flurry of activity leading up to the July 3rd non-waiver deadline with some teams taking advantage to improve their teams, while others stood by idly and didn’t make any moves. The rampant rumors of Jayson Werth, Adam Dunn et al. being moved did not materialize. In any event, there is plenty of impact to fantasy values that will affect a number of players and teams. Here are a few of them…  BIG, BIG WINNERS
Matt Capps, RP, MIN
The National’s All-Star closer had already racked up 27 saves for the last place club. He will be in line to improve on that number now that he will be closing for a pennant-contending team. Capps has been a great fantasy contributor providing three wins in addition to his 27 saves. He has posted a 39:9 K:BB ratio thus far, along with a more than respectable 2.68 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. The move to Minnesota is a big plus for owners of Capps where his already high fantasy value will get a boost.
Drew Storen, RP, WAS
The Nationals began the Storen era in Washington by clearing the way to the closers role with the trade of Capps. The word out of Washington was that Storen would share the closing duties with Tyler Clippard and Sean Burnett. But smart money would have Storen closing on a regular basis before season’s end. Storen’s season began on May 17 and to date, he has posted a 2.45 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP and a 28:14 K:BB ratio. He has also contributed with 3 wins out of the ‘pen. Fantasy owners are scrambling to pick up Storen who is number one on the Most Added Players List (ESPN) with a 34.6% ownership.
Jake Westbrook, SP, STL
The Cardinals acquired Westbrook in the three-team deal which saw Ryan Ludwick get shipped off to San Diego. St. Louis was in desperate need of solidifying the back end of their rotation for a run at the division crown. They have been patching their rotation with an over-the-hill Jeff Suppan and the unimpressive Blake Hawksworth occupying the slots of Kyle Lohse and Brad Penny, both on the DL. Westbrook had been very hittable this season, but began to turn it around after the All-Star Break. In four starts since (25.2 IP) he had a 3.86 ERA and 18:9 K:BB ratio. He gains a good deal of value by moving to a contender and getting to work with Dave Duncan. In his first start for the Cards, he put up the following line: 6 IP/4 H/2ER/1 BB/7 K’s. He’s only owned in 8.3% of fantasy leagues (ESPN).
NOT AS BIG, BUT STILL WINNERS
Evan Meek/Joel Hanrahan, RP, PIT – Both will see an increase in value with Dotel off to greener pastures. They will share save opportunities going forward, but Meek has the higher ceiling.
Brett Wallace, 3B, HOU – After Lance Berkman was shipped to the Yankees, Wallace was acquired from Toronto and will be given a shot to be the everyday 1B.
John Jay, OF, STL – Jay seized the OF spot vacated when Ryan Ludwick was traded to SD. He has a .366 BA with 45 hits in 51 games on the season.
 BIG, BIG LOSERSJon Rauch, RP, MINMr. Rauch lost most of his fantasy value when Mr. Capps was acquired. After Joe Nathan went down for the season, Rauch stepped in and did an admirable job as the closer for the Twins. He converted 21 out of 25 save opportunities. However, his underlying stats were a little less than impressive – 29 K/43 H in 39 IP and opponents were batting .277 against him. For his career, Rauch has converted only 26 out of 44 save opportunities, not exactly the kind of numbers that instill confidence for a pennant-chasing team. His ownership has plummeted from 98.8% to 66.5% (ESPN) in the last seven days and will continue to drop with every save Capps accrues. Octavio Dotel, RP, LADotel is another closer who lost a great deal of value after he was dealt to Los Angeles to solidify the Dodgers’ bullpen. He was able to compile a respectable number of saves, 21 out of 26 opportunities, for a terrible Pirates club. In addition, Dotel posted a better than expected 48:18 K:BB ratio with 35 HA in 41 IP. In LA he will have almost no chance to add to his saves total with Jonathan Broxton firmly entrenched as the Dodgers stopper. Dotel has seen his value take a nose-dive in the last seven days, dropping from 95.6% ownership to 74.1% (ESPN). Jorge Cantu, 1B, TEXAs the everyday 1B for FLA, Cantu’s value was significantly higher before his trade to Texas. With the Rangers, Cantu’s role will be reduced to starting primarily against left-handed pitching and pinch-hitting, according to the team. It was originally thought that Cantu would provide a few starts at 2B to fill in for the injured Ian Kinsler, but that was before Texas acquired Christian Guzman for exactly that purpose. His value surely would have increased with 2B eligibility. However, for now Cantu will not have a major impact on fantasy rosters unless his role changes. His ownership has dropped from 92.4% to 85.5% (ESPN) and will continue to drop as long as he’s not in the starting lineup on a regular basis. NOT AS BIG, BUT STILL LOSERSKosuke Fukudome, OF, CHI – Desperately needed a change of scenery and to escape Lightnin’ Lou’s doghouse. He’s only seen 37 AB’s in July with 2 HR/2 RBI.Miguel Tejada, 3B/SS, SD – His offensive skills were eroding before being acquired by SD. Now that he’s playing at the spacious Petco, you can expect even less… three hits so far in 15 AB’s for the Padres. Kerry Wood, RP, NYY – After his trade to the Yankees, Wood’s chances of winning a ring have significantly increased, but his chances for save opportunities is zilch even if he does stay healthy.*Written by Rosti Satanovsky exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. You can follow him on Facebook or Twitter@TheSportsFariah Who do you think is the BIGGEST WINNER or LOSER?
Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on Twitter@TheFantasyFixTags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, Fantasy Sports Blog, Trade Deadline, Matt Capps, Drew Storen, Jake Westbrook,Tyler Clippard, Sean Burnett, Ryan Ludwick, Jeff Suppan, Blake Hawksworth, Kyle Lohse, Brad Penny, Evan Meek, Joel Hanrahan, Brett Wallace, John Jay, Jon Rauch, Joe Nathan, Octavio Dotel, Jorge Cantu, Johnathan Broxton, Ian Kinsler, Kosuke Fukudome, Miguel Tejada, Kerry Wood, Washington Nationals, St. Louis Cardinals, Minnesota Twins, Pittsburgh Pirates, Houston Astros, Los Angeles Dodgers, Texas Rangers, Chicago Cubs, San Diego Padres, New York Yankees
Check out these numbers and ask yourself whether you would like to add this player if he was available on the waiver wire in your league: .264/.325/.382 with 45 R, 42 RBI, and 2 SB. The correct answer is no; leave Pablo Sandoval on the wire. However, it is unlikely that you will be faced with such a situation as Sandoval is owned in a stupefying 95.4% of leagues (ESPN). Fantasy owners always hold on too long because it hurts to let go of an early draft pick or a big name, but sometimes, it is best to cut the cord. So, here are a few guys whom it is time to give up on, and the guys you should replace them with.  Billy Butler Billy Butler Kansas City Royals 100% owned Relax, you do not have to run to your computer and drop Butler, but you have to know that his value is based more on where he was drafted than on his actual performance. Obviously, his .312 batting average is excellent (14th among big leaguers with at least 250 AB’s), but his power numbers are pedestrian for a first baseman (29 players who qualify at first have more homers than Butler’s ten), and his counting numbers are just average (50 R, 51 RBI). The point here is that Butler is easily replaceable, especially since he plays at one of the deepest (if not the deepest) offensive positions in the game. So, if he is not droppable, what should you do with him? Use his draft position value to upgrade through a trade. You might be able to simply do a one-for-one swap of first basemen for a guy who was drafted lower but is outperforming Butler (i.e. Paul Konerko or Aubrey Huff), or you could package Butler and a number three or four fantasy starter and try to land an ace for your rotation (see how I ranked the starters for the rest of the season here.If you can pull off a two-for-one trade, you can fill your first base slot with….
Gaby Sanchez Florida Marlins 52.8% owned
Not that you need me to tell you because you can see the chart for yourself, but Sanchez has been every bit as good as Butler this year. Nothing in Sanchez’s peripheral stats indicates he is due for a significant regression either. His BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) is slightly higher than the average at .323 but is not a significant concern, and his plate discipline is average to above average. According to Fangraphs, Sanchez only strikes out 16.7% of the time (6th best among qualifying first basemen) and has a contact rate of 84.4%.
Another option to replace Butler if you need power:
Ike Davis (27.2% owned) - .247, 50 R, 15 HR, 52 RBI, 1 SB
Other guys I would drop for Sanchez or Davis: the previously mentioned Pablo Sandoval (unless you’re using him at 3B) and Derrek Lee (93.6% owned)
 Jason Heyward Jason Heyward Atlanta Braves 100% owned
Again, you do not have to drop Heyward, but you should not be afraid to do so if there are better options available in your league. Sure, Heyward has tons of talent, and someday, he will most likely be an elite player, but the rookie is way overvalued simply because of his name. His eleven homers and eight steals along with a slash line of .274/.386/.459 are good (especially that .387 OBP thanks to a 13.7% walk rate), but he has been at best only a top-40 outfielder so far. With a BABIP of .335 and a strikeout rate of 25.5%, it is hard to see Heyward improving significantly this season.
So, like Butler, you might be able to swap Heyward straight up for a better outfielder with less name value (i.e. Angel Pagan, Andres Torres, Hunter Pence), or if you can pull off a two-for-one trade, you can fill your vacant outfield spot with….
Luke Scott Baltimore Orioles 62.1% owned
Scott is a legitimate power hitter. Again according to Fangraphs, he is hitting a home run every 16 at-bats, and he is tied for seventh in the league with a .268 ISO (Isolated Power measures a hitter’s raw power based on his ability to get extra base hits). If he continues to hit within ten points of his current .279 average, Scott could easily be a top-30 outfielder the rest of the way.
Other options to fill a vacant outfield spot:
Tyler Colvin (25.0% owned) – hitting .268 with 16 HR and a higher ISO than Scott (.280)
If you need speed, Jose Tabata (19.8% owned) – hitting .294 with ten steals since he was called up on June 9.
Other guys I would drop for Scott: B.J. Upton (98.2% owned), Adam Jones (93.1% owned), Nick Markakis (95.1%owned), Johnny Damon (87.4% owned), and Carlos Lee (89.9% owned).
So take the advice of Fleetwood Mac:
Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student who is beyond depressed that summer is almost over. You can follow him on Twitter @therealTAL.
Think Brett is out of his mind?
Leave a comment at the top or hit us up on Twitter @TheFantasyFix
Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, Waiver Wire, Pablo Sandoval, Aaron Hill, Chone Figgins, Billy Butler, Paul Konerko, Aubrey Huff, Gaby Sanchez, Ike Davis, Derek Lee, Jason Heyward, Angel Pagan, Andres Torres, Hunter Pence, Luke Scott, Tyler Colvin, Jose Tabata, B.J. Upton, Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, Johnny Damon, Carlos Lee
Conventional wisdom states that you wait until the last two rounds to get your defense and kicker. These positions are historically difficult to predict, and the difference between them is minimal over the course of a season. Waiting until the final rounds allows you to use the rest of your mid-late round picks on some high “upside” players who could potentially develop into solid starters. Well, if some “upside” players is good, more is better. In leagues that do not require that you to fill every position on your roster during the draft, like Yahoo!, I recommend passing on a kicker and defense altogether and picking up additional players who may be on their way to a breakout season. Once the pre-season winds down and Week One gets going, there should be someone on your roster who has been injured, or slipped down the depth chart, and can be dropped for a kicker/defense at the last minute. Think you can’t get anyone of value in the last two rounds? Check out some of the guys who went in the last two rounds of my league the last couple years.2008 – Vincent Jackson, Brett Favre, Steve Slaton2009 – Matt RyanNow, I’m not saying that the guys listed below will all turn into studs, but that’s why they’re still available at this point in the draft. When you’re in the final rounds, you’re not looking for a safe pick; you want high upside players dripping with potential. Resist the temptation to take Mason Crosby or the Bears defense, and instead roll the dice on some of these guys, who have a chance to make a difference in 2010.
* Average Draft Picks taken from mockdraftcentral.com  SEASONAL LEAGUES
Alex Smith (Average Draft Pick 203)
I know he hasn’t proven he can produce consistently and the coaching staff wants to get back to a smashmouth, run-first offense, but let’s look at the facts. Drafting two o-linemen doesn’t automatically fix their woeful blocking. Singletary wanted to be a run-first team last year, too, and we saw how that worked out after Smith took over under center. Even with a revamped line, the team has too many weapons in the passing game (with sophomore WR Michael Crabtree coming along and Vernon Davis’ joining the elite tier of TEs in ’09) for Smith not to at least get the chance to make some waves.
 Toby Gerhart (ADP 175)
He’s the obvious handcuff for anyone with Adrian Peterson, but it seems to me that people are overlooking Toby’s on the field value. AP had 384 total touches in 2008 and 357 last year. That’s a lot of work to put on a guy who, coming into the league, was knocked for a running style that led to him taking too many big hits. I don’t think anyone should be surprised if Toby picks up a few carries here and there to keep AP fresh. But where Toby’s real value comes in is at the goal line. In 2009, Peterson had 7 fumbles in the regular season (plus 2 in the conference championship game). Last year, AP led the league in carries inside the ten yard line (42), and carries inside the five (30). If he can’t protect the ball, expect Toby to see some of those touches.
 Chaz Schilens (ADP 155)
With Jamarcus Russell no longer throwing errant passes in Oakland, this training camp star from last season should finally live up to the promises. In addition to the improvements under center, the Raiders play the NFC West this season, so there will be plenty of opportunities to feast on weak secondaries in San Francisco, Seattle and St. Louis. If he can stay healthy, he should be a solid WR3 that you can get on the cheap.
 Dexter McCluster (ADP 193)
Most of the offseason hype surrounding the Chiefs has focused on the backfield duo of Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles, and rightfully so, but this mini-man receiver should contribute immediately. He’ll line up in the slot, at RB and in wildcat – basically any way the Chiefs can get him the ball. He’ll also likely take up return duties as Charles becomes the centerpiece of the offense. Imagine a mixture of Darren Sproles and Josh Cribbs…that’s McCluster.
 KEEPER/DYNASTY LEAGUES
Anthony Dixon (Undrafted)
It’s looking like Dixon, not Glenn Coffee, will be the handcuff for Frank Gore this season. But let’s look at the big picture. Gore will turn 28 years old (danger!) after the 2010 season, and considering his injury history, isn’t a lock to make it to that party without crutches. Dixon is going undrafted in most leagues, but is a smart pickup for anyone with the roster space to stockpile young talent. He’ll give you 1-2 starts this season when Gore is out, and should be in for a big bump in 2011.
 Jonathan Dwyer (ADP 208)
Full disclosure: I was burned by Rashard Mendenhall in 2008 and never fully recovered. Nonetheless, Dwyer has received nothing but praise this offseason, and Mendenhall has only carried the load for one year. That is hardly a sufficient sample size. Also, Tomlin has been including Dwyer’s name in discussions of goal line duty, a place where Mendenhall fell short last year.
 Mike Williams (ADP 208)
Williams has been getting rave reviews all offseason and is in line to start Week One. His ceiling for 2010 is limited with sophomore Josh Freeman throwing to him, but his future is bright as the two could be a powerful duo in the NFC South as soon as 2011.
 Emmanuel Sanders (Undrafted)
Antwaan Randle El and Arnaz Battle. These are the two players keeping rookie Sanders from taking the spot as the third wide receiver in Pittsburgh; also not the most intimidating competition. Sanders, an explosive receiver from SMU, should ascend to the WR3 spot by Week One. He may have a tough time getting looks, especially with Ben Roethlisberger suspended, but could get some deep looks that payoff. But the real payday for Sanders would be in 2011 when an aging Hines Ward should pave the way for a dramatic increase.
Got any other Late Round Fliers?Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on Twitter@TheFantasyFix
Written by Chris Sheehan exclusively for the www.thefantasyfix.com. Chris is an avid football fan and has been playing fantasy football for over ten years. Check back for more great articles from him weekly.
Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Football Advice, Fantasy Football Blog, Fantasy Sports Blog, Ranks, Alex Smith, Toby Gerhart, Chaz Schilens, Dexter McCluster, Anthony Dixon, Jonathan Dwyer, Mike Williams, Emmanuel Sanders, Seasonal Leagues, Keeper Leagues, Dynasty Leagues, San Francisco 49ers, Minnesota Vikings, Pittsburgh Pirates, Detroit Lions
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