2013 Fantasy Baseball Rankings Update, Week 7

May 17, 2013 by 1 Comment

Attempting to update fantasy baseball rankings during the season can be an extremely challenging task. But here is my attempt for week seven. Below the actual rankings we will discuss one player at each position that I have ranked either significantly higher or lower than the other analysts (These annotations will be added throughout the day, Friday). Don’t forget to tell me who I forgot or what I got wrong in the comments below…

Before we get to the rankings,  here is a reminder to get the competitive edge and be a “Front Office” member of the Fix.  Do this for just $0.82 per month (or $0.02/per day). The cost for the Fix’s “Front Office” package is $9.99.

Becoming a member gets you inside access to information that is for your eyes only – this isn’t the same free outdated internet content your leaguemates are relying on.

BECOME A “FRONT OFFICE” MEMBER TODAY!

Now on to the ranks:

[Read more...]

Filed Under: Alan Harrison, Fantasy Baseball

2013 Fantasy Baseball, Week 7 Tools of the Trade: Holding On Paul Goldschmidt?

May 15, 2013 by Leave a Comment

TheFantasyFix.com’s “Tools of the Trade” is a unique guide for owners to use while attempting to make an even trade with their league-mates in a standard 12-team mixed, 5×5 head-to-head or rotisserie redraft league.

The values present in this guide are simply the basis for a trade. A full-blown analysis of each team’s strengths and weaknesses are essential prior to proposing or accepting a trade offer.

How to use the guide: Ideally, owners will agree to a trade that will aid both sides and stay within $2-3 of each other in a one-for-one and $4-5 in a multi-player deal, according to our chart.

The Week 1 “Tools of the Trade” was free for all readers, and so is this weeks! But going forward, the “Tools of the Trade” will only be available to Front Office members. Learn the benefits of being a Front Office member here.

Without further ado, here is week 7′s trade value chart:

[Read more...]

Filed Under: 2013 Fantasy Baseball, Alan Harrison, Fantasy Baseball, Front Office Tagged With: , , ,

Fantasy Baseball, Week 7 PCL Updates: Michael Wacha, Nick Franklin, Michael Choice

May 14, 2013 by Leave a Comment
choice land

 

Michael Wacha (P – Memphis Redbirds)

The Cardinals have one of the greatest problems in baseball to have… too much good, young pitching. Among them are Miller, Rosenthal, Martinez, Jenkins and Wacha. Michael Wacha was the Cardinals first overall pick in the 2012 MLB Draft (19th overall) and has been pushed aggressively through their system since. Used mostly in relief in 2012, Wacha compiled an amazing 40:4 K:BB ratio in just 21 innings.

Wacha entered 2013 in the Redbirds rotation. After a shaky four walk, four inning debut, he settled down, putting his BB/9 to a respectable 2.88. Logging 40.2 innings to this point in the season, he has given up nine earned runs, four home runs, while striking out 24 (15 K%). He has also been impressive in not allowing more than two earned runs in any of his seven starts.

As far as Wacha’s 2013 fantasy implications go, look to Shelby Miller’s 2012 role with the Cardinals. That means a possible bullpen role in September, with a spot start or two. Then definitely remember his name as a 2014 sleeper. [Read more...]

Filed Under: 2013 Fantasy Baseball, Alan Harrison, Fantasy Baseball, Prospects Tagged With: , , , ,

Fantasy Baseball, Week 6 Roundtable: Sell-High Candidates

May 11, 2013 by Leave a Comment

Six weeks of the baseball season has come and gone, so now is your opportunity hit the trade trail. Here is the Fix’s second round table discussion of the 2013 fantasy baseball season: sell-high candidates. Read it, then go convince your rivals to take on your overachievers. Be sure to check out last week’s “buy low” column, here. Enjoy!

Dexter Fowler | OF | Rockies by Gerard Martin (@Gerardowrites)

Dexter Fowler’s supposed whole is so much less than the sum of the parts of his game. Fantasy owners have rampaged the waiver wire to acquire him as a power/speed source, but he’s really not that good in either area.

Fowler stole 27 bases in 518 plate appearances in 2009. In the 3+ seasons since then, he’s swiped a total of 41 bags in 1,723 plate appearances.

He’s not stealing more than 15 bases this season.
Fowler plays in Coors Field, but even with a double-vented bat, there’s no chance he’s going to maintain his current 30% HR/FB rate, which more than triples his career average.

He’s not hitting more than 20 homers this season.
Please forgive my confusion, but I can’t understand why a player who’s likely to finish somewhere in the 18/13 range in HR/SB without elite production in AVG, R, or RBI is such a hot commodity.

Realistic Trade Targets: Austin Jackson, Jacoby Ellsbury, Yoenis Cespedes.

[Read more...]

Filed Under: 2013 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball

Profiling The 2013 MLB Draft: University of San Diego’s Kris Bryant

May 10, 2013 by 2 Comments

Prospect Profile:
Kris Bryant
Position:  3B/OF/1B
Height:  6-5
Weight:  215
Bats/Throws:  R-R
Birthdate:  Jan. 4, 1992
College:  San Diego
2013 Class: Junior
Hometown:  Las Vegas, Nev.
High School; Bonanza
Previously Drafted:  Blue Jays 2010, 18th round
Projected 2013 Draft Round: 1st
[Read more...]

Filed Under: Fantasy Baseball, NCAA, Prospects Tagged With: , ,

Fantasy Baseball, Week 6 PCL Updates: Mike Zunino, Zack Wheeler & Gary Brown

May 7, 2013 by Leave a Comment

Every fantasy baseball player has two loves, numbers and prospects. As the first month of the season draws to a close and small sample sizes begin to transform into trends, we watch ever so closely looking to stay a step ahead of our competition. Certain categories, like strikeouts, speed or power always seem to be scarce therefore lets take a look at three PCL prospects that possess one of those skills.

Zack Wheeler | SP | Las Vegas 51′s (Mets): Plenty of us have been watching the 6’4’’ righty progress since he was traded for Carlos Beltran (2011) in an attempt for the Giants to make a World Series run. That didn’t work out for the Giants but it did give the Mets a possible front line starter for years to come. Fast forwarding to 2013, it was just recently (4/30) that Wheeler picked up his first, ever so important, pitcher win. So far, control has been a problem for Wheeler as he had 17 walks in just 36 innings (4.25 BB/9). However, the control issues are not a new occurance, as he compiled 88 walks in 146.2 innings (5.4 BB/9) as a Giants prospect in 2010 and part of 2011. An article on this very subject was published last week on MILB.com  pointing to a possible mechanical issue that could have contributed to the problem.

Some of Wheeler’s other numbers, like his K% of 25.3 for 2013 are more consistent. It sits right in line of his 25.6 career minor league K%. However, his 2013 ERA of 4.00 (drastically reduced by his 1 ER in his last 12.2 IPs) does not keep the trend that his K% does. 36 innings, thus far, does definitely fit the ‘’small sample size’’ definition. However, the Mets, and savvy prospective fantasy owners, know that the dreaded, hitter-friendly PCL ballparks in which Wheeler will be pitching in play a role. These parks have contributed to Wheeler already allowing 3 HRs and allowing a BABIP of .320 in 2013. Whereas, Wheeler’s prior highest HRs allowed was 7, in 2011 (115 innings).

Wheeler possesses a repertoire of a fastball, that sits around 94-95 and topping out around 98, a curveball and recently added slider (according to Baseball America) all being above average pitches. His changeup, however, is still a work in progress. ESPN’s Keith Law states it ‘’ is probably too hard to be truly effective.’’ Even with work on the changeup needed, it is widely speculated that Wheeler will see time in the Mets rotation in 2013 and as soon as that word comes, he is a must add in most fantasy formats.

Gary Brown | OF | Fresno Grizzlies (Giants): Speed, Brown has it, fantasy players are always on the lookout for it. In 2012, Brown was ranked as the Giants top prospect (according to Baseball American) and given an 80 speed (on the 20-80 scouting scale). Unfortunately, that ‘’80’’ speed is useless, especially in fantasy, if you can not turn it into SBs. In Brown’s 2012 season that is exactly what happened, as he was caught stealing 18 times in 51 chances. That, combined with being caught 19 times (in 72 chances) in 2011 and being caught three times in five chances in 2013, is the makings of a trend that won’t help him make the majors any time soon.

Of course, to be a bad baserunner you have to get on base. Brown’s OBP has been sporadic at best in his young career. In 2011, while Brown was in A-Ball, his OBP was a stellar .407 in 638 plate appearances. That high OBP contributed to his being so highly touted by many talent evaluators. While the drop of ‘’elite status’’ after 2012 can be contributed to his .347 OBP (in 610 PAs). Throw in a drop in his Slugging % from .519 to .385 and you have the makings of a player who at one point would not be included in a trade for Carlos Beltran, to maybe a 4th outfielder/defensive sub, at best.

2013 has not been any kinder to the 6’1’’, 190 pound right-hander as his batting average (.195) isn’t above the Mendoza Line. Right-handed pitchers are especially tough for Brown. In 95 ABs against righties he has produced a triple slash of .158/.208/.221. He also only has eight walks compared to 28 Ks (.29 BB/K), which continued at its present course, would be his lowest BB/K (.46 in 2012/ .60 in 2011) since his first season in pro ball. As far as fantasy relevance in 2013, Brown could see a September callup when rosters expand but no fantasy team should expect rostering him unless it is the deepest of NL Only leagues.

Mike Zunino | C | Tacoma Rainiers (Mariners): Every fantasy team that waited on a catcher in their draft is now waiting on Zunino’s eventual call to the majors. Zunino has been on the fast track ever after being the third overall pick in the 2012 draft out of Florida. The start to his season was great, blasting four HRs in the first eight games but he has cooled off drastically since, hitting only 1 HR in his last 10. Power will be his best fantasy attribute, as evident of his .689 Slugging % in 2012 (161 ABs in A and AA) and continued success early on of .488 (84 ABs) this season.

Zunino has an unusual lack of opportunities to face lefties early this season, only seeing southpaws 10 times (two hit) thus far. Obviously, that will even out some as the season goes along. Nevertheless, his lack of pro ball experience is going to be what keeps him in the minors, not the Mariner’s currently constructed, offensively challenged lineup. As far as fantasy owners are concerned, jump at the chance to claim him for the HRs and SLG% potential.

—-All stats updated through Sunday, May 5th

Written by JJ Kay, a special to TheFantasyFix.com.

Filed Under: 2013 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Prospects Tagged With: , , ,

2013 Fantasy Baseball, Week 5 Tools Of The Trade: Selling Low On Josh Hamilton?

May 4, 2013 by 3 Comments

TheFantasyFix.com’s “Tools of the Trade” is a unique guide for owners to use while attempting to make an even trade with their league-mates in a standard 12-team mixed, 5×5 head-to-head or rotisserie redraft league.

The values present in this guide are simply the basis for a trade. A full-blown analysis of each team’s strengths and weaknesses are essential prior to proposing or accepting a trade offer.

How to use the guide: Ideally, owners will agree to a trade that will aid both sides and stay within $2-3 of each other in a one-for-one and $4-5 in a multi-player deal, according to our chart.

The Week 1 “Tools of the Trade” was free for all readers, and so is this weeks! But going forward, the “Tools of the Trade” will only be available to Front Office members. Learn the benefits of being a Front Office member here.

Without further ado, here is week 5′s trade value chart:

Player Value Player Value Player Value
Miguel Cabrera – Det 3B $41 Hisashi Iwakuma – Sea P $12 Trevor Cahill – Ari P $5
Ryan Braun – Mil OF $40 Adam LaRoche – Was 1B $12 Kyle Lohse – Mil P $5
Justin Upton – Atl OF $39 Mark Reynolds – Cle 1B $12 Dan Haren – Was P $5
Mike Trout – LAA OF $38 Curtis Granderson – NYY OF $12 Chris Perez – Cle P $5
Prince Fielder – Det 1B $37 Desmond Jennings – TB OF $12 Brandon League – LAD P $5
Joey Votto – Cin 1B $37 Mark Trumbo – LAA OF $12 Adam Eaton – Ari OF $5
Robinson Cano – NYY 2B $36 B.J. Upton – Atl OF $11 Justin Morneau – Min 1B $4
Carlos Gonzalez – Col OF $35 Michael Cuddyer – Col OF $11 Mike Moustakas – KC 3B $4
Bryce Harper – Was OF $35 John Buck – NYM C $11 Tim Lincecum – SF P $4
Adam Jones – Bal OF $34 Alejandro De Aza – CWS OF $11 Dillon Gee – NYM P $4
Albert Pujols – LAA 1B $34 Mike Minor – Atl P $11 Wellington Castillo – ChC C $4
Clayton Kershaw – LAD P $33 Neil Walker – Pit 2B $11 J.J. Hardy – Bal SS $4
Justin Verlander – Det P $33 J.P. Arencibia – Tor C $11 Josh Reddick – Oak OF $4
Andrew McCutchen – Pit OF $33 Todd Frazier – Cin 3B $11 Brett Gardner – NYY OF $4
Matt Kemp – LAD OF $33 Ryan Howard – Phi 1B $11 Ben Revere – Phi OF $4
Jay Bruce – Cin OF $32 Jake Peavy – CWS P $11 Hyun-Jin Ryu – LAD P $4
Felix Hernandez – Sea P $30 Sergio Romo – SF P $11 Josh Johnson – Tor P $4
Troy Tulowitzki – Col SS $30 Martin Prado – Ari 3B $11 Andrew Bailey – Bos P $4
David Wright – NYM 3B $28 Norichika Aoki – Mil OF $11 Huston Street – SD P $4
Yu Darvish – Tex P $28 Yovani Gallardo – Mil P $11 C.J. Wilson – LAA P $4
Adrian Beltre – Tex 3B $28 Hunter Pence – SF OF $11 Jason Hammel – Bal P $4
Evan Longoria – TB 3B $27 Jeremy Hellickson – TB P $11 David Murphy – Tex OF $4
Matt Holliday – StL OF $27 Torii Hunter – Det OF $11 Matt Garza – ChC P $4
Yoennis Cespedes – Oak OF $27 Jonathan Papelbon – Phi P $9 Ichiro Suzuki – NYY OF $4
Jacoby Ellsbury – Bos OF $26 Salvador Perez – KC C $9 Kyuji Fujikawa – ChC P $4
Cliff Lee – Phi P $23 R.A. Dickey – Tor P $9 Alexi Ogando – Tex P $4
Starlin Castro – ChC SS $23 Nelson Cruz – Tex OF $9 Carlos Ruiz – Phi C $4
Edwin Encarnacion – Tor 1B $23 Nick Markakis – Bal OF $9 Josh Beckett – LAD P $4
Paul Goldschmidt – Ari 1B $22 Paul Maholm – Atl P $9 Brian McCann – Atl C $3
Ian Kinsler – Tex 2B $22 A.J. Burnett – Pit P $9 Daniel Nava – Bos OF $3
Austin Jackson – Det OF $22 Brandon Morrow – Tor P $9 Chris Carter – Hou OF $3
Jason Heyward – Atl OF $22 Tom Wilhelmsen – Sea P $9 Erick Aybar – LAA SS $3
Shin-Soo Choo – Cin OF $22 Mariano Rivera – NYY P $9 Josh Donaldson – Oak 3B $3
Cole Hamels – Phi P $22 Jered Weaver – LAA P $9 Joel Hanrahan – Bos P $3
Adam Wainwright – StL P $21 Jason Grilli – Pit P $9 Aaron Hill – Ari 2B $3
Stephen Strasburg – Was P $21 Clay Buchholz – Bos P $9 Tom Milone – Oak P $3
Alex Gordon – KC OF $21 Jonathon Niese – NYM P $8 J.J. Putz – Ari P $3
Buster Posey – SF C $21 Marco Estrada – Mil P $8 Gerardo Parra – Ari OF $3
Adrian Gonzalez – LAD 1B $21 Shane Victorino – Bos OF $8 Adam Dunn – CWS 1B $3
Chase Utley – Phi 2B $21 Ike Davis – NYM 1B $8 Michael Young – Phi 3B $3
David Price – TB P $21 Josh Rutledge – Col 2B $8 Ernesto Frieri – LAA P $3
Jose Bautista – Tor OF $21 Asdrubal Cabrera – Cle SS $8 Howie Kendrick – LAA 2B $3
Pablo Sandoval – SF 3B $20 Josh Willingham – Min OF $8 Brett Anderson – Oak P $3
Chase Headley – SD 3B $20 Mike Morse – Sea OF $8 Drew Stubbs – Cle OF $2
Matt Cain – SF P $20 Hiroki Kuroda – NYY P $8 Jose Veras – Hou P $2
Jordan Zimmermann – Was P $20 Tim Hudson – Atl P $8 Manny Machado – Bal 3B $2
Matt Harvey – NYM P $20 Matt Carpenter – StL 3B $8 Alfonso Soriano – ChC OF $2
Madison Bumgarner – SF P $20 Andre Ethier – LAD OF $8 Wil Myers – TB OF $2
Chris Sale – CWS P $20 Lorenzo Cain – KC OF $8 Matt Joyce – TB OF $2
Jeff Samardzija – ChC P $20 Coco Crisp – Oak OF $8 Cameron Maybin – SD OF $2
Joe Mauer – Min C $19 Kyle Seager – Sea 3B $8 Jedd Gyorko – SD 2B $2
Dustin Pedroia – Bos 2B $19 Eric Hosmer – KC 1B $8 Michael Saunders – Sea OF $2
Ryan Zimmerman – Was 3B $18 Jim Johnson – Bal P $7 Brandon McCarthy – Ari P $2
Freddie Freeman – Atl 1B $18 Aramis Ramirez – Mil 3B $7 Edwin Jackson – ChC P $2
CC Sabathia – NYY P $18 Alexander Cobb – TB P $7 Dayan Viciedo – CWS OF $2
Craig Kimbrel – Atl P $18 Edward Mujica – StL P $7 Grant Balfour – Oak P $2
Brandon Phillips – Cin 2B $18 Jim Henderson – Mil P $7 Bobby Parnell – NYM P $2
Giancarlo Stanton – Mia OF $18 Starling Marte – Pit OF $7 Domonic Brown – Phi OF $2
Hanley Ramirez – LAD SS $18 Jayson Werth – Was OF $7 A.J. Griffin – Oak P $2
Matthew Moore – TB P $16 Matt Wieters – Bal C $7 Andrew Cashner – SD P $2
Max Scherzer – Det P $16 Victor Martinez – Det C $7 Ryan Dempster – Bos P $2
Josh Hamilton – LAA OF $16 Will Middlebrooks – Bos 3B $7 Homer Bailey – Cin P $2
Aroldis Chapman – Cin P $16 Rafael Soriano – Was P $7 Derek Holland – Tex P $2
Alex Rios – CWS OF $15 Brandon Moss – Oak 1B $7 Juan Pierre – Mia OF $2
Brett Lawrie – Tor 3B $15 Pedro Alvarez – Pit 3B $7 Garrett Jones – Pit 1B $2
Billy Butler – KC 1B $15 Yonder Alonso – SD 1B $7 Alexei Ramirez – CWS SS $2
Jason Kipnis – Cle 2B $15 Jed Lowrie – Oak SS $6 Russell Martin – Pit C $2
Jose Altuve – Hou 2B $15 Daniel Murphy – NYM 2B $6 David DeJesus – ChC OF $1
Chris Davis – Bal 1B $15 Lance Lynn – StL P $6 Mark Ellis – LAD 2B $1
Anibal Sanchez – Det P $15 Fernando Rodney – TB P $6 Jhonny Peralta – Det SS $1
Carlos Santana – Cle C $15 Mark Teixeira – NYY 1B $6 Julio Teheran – Atl P $1
Allen Craig – StL 1B $15 Everth Cabrera – SD SS $6 Steve Cishek – Mia P $1
Ben Zobrist – TB 2B $15 Lance Berkman – Tex 1B $6 Nick Hundley – SD C $1
Ian Desmond – Was SS $14 A.J. Pierzynski – Tex C $6 Phil Hughes – NYY P $1
Kris Medlen – Atl P $14 Casey Janssen – Tor P $6 Corey Hart – Mil 1B $1
Gio Gonzalez – Was P $14 Danny Espinosa – Was 2B $6 Zach Cozart – Cin SS $1
Wilin Rosario – Col C $14 Jose Valverde – Det P $6 Ross Detwiler – Was P $1
Jimmy Rollins – Phi SS $14 Melky Cabrera – Tor OF $6 Evan Gattis – Atl C $1
Jean Segura – Mil SS $14 Rafael Betancourt – Col P $6 Stephen Drew – Bos SS $1
Alcides Escobar – KC SS $14 Angel Pagan – SF OF $6 Justin Ruggiano – Mia OF $1
Carlos Beltran – StL OF $14 Nick Swisher – Cle OF $6 Denard Span – Was OF $1
David Ortiz – Bos DH $14 Carlos Quentin – SD OF $6 Edinson Volquez – SD P $1
Mike Napoli – Bos C $14 Ian Kennedy – Ari P $6 Wei-Yin Chen – Bal P $1
Zack Greinke – LAD P $13 Greg Holland – KC P $6 James McDonald – Pit P $1
Johnny Cueto – Cin P $13 Ryan Vogelsong – SF P $6 Colby Rasmus – Tor OF $1
Jon Lester – Bos P $13 Jaime Garcia – StL P $6 Omar Infante – Det 2B $1
Carlos Gomez – Mil OF $13 David Freese – StL 3B $6 Kendry Morales – Sea 1B $1
Yadier Molina – StL C $13 Justin Masterson – Cle P $6 Kevin Gregg – ChC P $1
Dexter Fowler – Col OF $13 Jason Kubel – Ari OF $6 Trevor Rosenthal – StL P $1
Addison Reed – CWS P $13 Andrelton Simmons – Atl SS $5 Jason Vargas – LAA P $1
Joe Nathan – Tex P $13 Glen Perkins – Min P $5 Kelvin Herrera – KC P $1
Carl Crawford – LAD OF $13 Rickie Weeks – Mil 2B $5 Jon Jay – StL OF $1
Elvis Andrus – Tex SS $12 Miguel Montero – Ari C $5 Wade Miley – Ari P $1
Dan Uggla – Atl 2B $12 Shelby Miller – StL P $5 David Hernandez – Ari P $1
James Shields – KC P $12 Yuniesky Betancourt – Mil 2B $5 Ryan Roberts – TB 3B $1
Michael Bourn – Cle OF $12 Jose Reyes – Tor SS $5 John Axford – Mil P $1
Anthony Rizzo – ChC 1B $12 Jarrod Parker – Oak P $5 Derek Jeter – NYY SS $1
Mat Latos – Cin P $12 Chris Johnson – Atl 3B $5 Kevin Youkilis – NYY 3B $1
Doug Fister – Det P $12 Jose Fernandez – Mia P $5 Trevor Plouffe – Min 3B $1
Paul Konerko – CWS 1B $12 Roy Halladay – Phi P $5 Dustin Ackley – Sea 2B $1

Trading isn’t easy. It’s fun, but not easy. Remember that you don’t have to “win” the trade in order to pull the trigger. If you’re improving your team, then you should make the deal.

Each-and-every week fantasy baseball owners send us their trade proposals and/or offers via our “Quick Fix” and Twitter to determine if the offer is fair and whether or not the trade should be proposed or accepted.

The theme of the week? Josh Hamilton. Hamilton came over to the Angels this past off season from the Texas Rangers but has struggled to get it going through the first month with his new team. He owns a .208/.252/.292  triple slash with just two home runs and nine RBI in 131 plate appearances. Some of Hamilton’s troubles seem to stem from his plate discipline. He’s swinging and missing a ton — 18.4% SwStr% — resulting in the 28.2%  K%. And Hamilton was never known for taking walks (8.2% career BB%), but even that number has dipped to 4.6% thus far in ’13. Additionally, Hamilton is hitting the ball into the ground more this year while hitting fewer line drives and fly balls.

With that said, to say owners are growing extremely impatient with their second or third round pick would be an understatement. Let’s take a look at a few deals going down involving Josh Hamilton in the fantasy baseball world:

Pretty self-explanatory here. Andrew probably could get rid of Hamilton, but just isn’t willing to sell as low as he would need to to convince another owner to take the slugger on.

Our good friend Eno experienced the same struggles. He ended up acquiring Mark Trumbo and Sergio Santos for Hamilton and Jed Lowrie. He may have overpaid a bit for Trumbo/Santos, but he sold a bit low to rid himself of the frustrations. I like the move.

Love this deal. And according to our chart, it’s perfectly even.

Again, love this deal. I would gladly take on Alex Gordon for Hamilton.

Have a question about our Week 4 Tools of the Trade? Leave it in the comments below.

The concept for the this trade value chart has been adapted from Dave Richard’s fantasy football work at CBS.

All of our statistics are courtesy of our friends at FanGraphs .

Filed Under: Fantasy Baseball, Front Office

Fantasy Baseball, Week 5 Roundtable: Buy Low Targets

May 2, 2013 by Leave a Comment

The first month of the baseball season has come and gone, so now is your opportunity hit the trade trail. Here is the Fix’s first round table discussion of the 2013 fantasy baseball season: Buy Low Targets. Read it, then go convince your rivals to cough up their underachievers. Enjoy!

David Price | Rays | SP by Brett Talley (@TheRealTAL)

Any buy low discussion of Price has to start with the obvious, which is his .343 BABIP, 68.8% strand rate, and 18.8% HR/FB. Those numbers are out of line both with both league average and Price’s career average. Assuming his skills are the same, we should expect him to bounceback.

And his skills appear to be largely the same. Well, they seem to be as they were in 2010 and 2011. He peaked last season in a lot of ways. His groundball rate spiked to 53% but is about 49% this year. His average fastball velocity was 96.55, but it’s 94.67 this year. In turn, his K% is the same as it was over 2010-2011. But his skills in 2010 and 2011 were good enough for ERAs of 2.72 and 3.49, respectively. So he may not be able to repeat as a Cy Young winner, but he’s still the same top 10-15 pitcher he’s been for several years.

Josh Beckett | Dodgers | SP by John Hoey (@JohnnyCrashMLB)

Sporting a fat 4.75 ERA to go with an 0 – 3 record, Josh Beckett now sits in the buy-low bargain bin. Frustrated owners may already be prepared to deal him. Prey on that vulnerability and make an offer, what can you lose? Look at his 2012 after returning to the NL with the Dodgers. In 43 innings with LA last year, Beckett went 2-3 with a 2.93 ERA and 38 strikeouts, 8 SOs/9 IP, his best since 2011 when he finished 9th in Cy Young voting.

Beckett’s numbers should improve as the season progresses. First, his SO/BB ratio is 3.13, his highest since 2011 which means his control is good and he is missing a respectable amount of bats. Secondly, his HR/Fly Ball ratio is very high at a startling 15.4%. His HR/fly ball ratio last year was only 8.9%. If this levels off, which it should, he will see a significant drop in his ERA. His velocity isn’t what it was, but the guy knows how to pitch. I see Beckett definitely improving on that hefty 4.75 ERA and grabbing a decent amount of strikeouts and wins. Throw a low-ball offer at his owner in your league and see if they bite, their frustrations may get the best of them.

Ike Davis | Mets | 1B by Andrew Miller (@44AMiller)

As of Tuesday afternoon Ike Davis is owned in 70 percent of ESPN leagues, a number that’s fallen from 81 percent last week. That owners are giving up on Davis only four weeks into the season is baffling. They should’ve known what they were getting when they drafted him: a slow-starter who’ll eventually hit a lot of home runs.

Well, Davis has only hit four home runs, but on April 30 last year he only had three and didn’t hit his fourth until May 9. After May 8 last year Davis hit 29 homers with an .838 OPS, and after June 8 Davis hit 27 homers in 100 games with a .265/.347/.565 line. All this is to say that Davis should easily pick up his performance in the coming month.

Even though Davis is striking out more than he did last year, he’s walking just as much and hitting roughly the same amount of line drives. The rest of his plate discipline and batted-ball profile indicate not much has changed from last year’s 32-homer season. So buy real low, or better yet pick him up off the waiver wire in the coming days.

Matt Cain | Giants | SP by Chris Garosi (@ChrisGarosi)

Matt Cain was the ninth pitcher (eighth starting pitcher) off the board this year based on ADP. He was chosen at the tail end of the fourth round in 10 team mixed leagues. He was an anchor for your staff.

In 34 2/3 IP he’s given up 35 hits, walked 10 and struck out 32 earning himself a 6.49 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. I’ve already had one dynasty league owner offering him around. I’d invest and here is why. As we look around Fangraphs there is nothing in his peripherals that shows a drop in skills indicating he’s become a AAA pitcher.

Career K% 20.2, 2013 K% 21.2%
Career BB% 8.2, 2013 BB% 6.6%
Career BABIP .265, 2013 BABIP .264

The only potential cause for concern is a 0.5 mph drop in fastball velocity from 2012 to 2013. That said, he’s got an inflated 2.34 HR/9 rate against a career rate of 0.79 (2012 league leader Ervin Santana had a 1.97 rate) and that’s his main issue. Compare his ERA (6.49) to his xFIP (4.06) and SIERA (3.85) and you see a great buy low candidate who still has near-ace ability.

Victor Martinez | Tigers | C by Scott Barzilla (@SBarzilla)

Victor Martinez has gotten off to a slow start, but that is to be expected for someone recovering from an ACL tear. While Martinez is not currently catching, we can classify him as one because he is eligible there and has the same body type of prototypical catchers. Buster Posey and Jason Castro came back last year following ACL surgery and both experienced more success in the second half. Posey had a fairly solid .820 OPS in the first half last season, but that ballooned to a Hereculean 1.120 in the second half. Castro’s splits were not as extreme (.709 vs. .787) but it was still noticeable. Martinez will be owned in most leagues, but you could probably get him for a song at this point. You probably would want to keep him on your bench and monitor his performance for now, but he has too much of a pedigree not to bounce back eventually.

Cole Hamels | Phillies | SP by Gerard Martin (@gerardowrites)

Cole Hamels’ changeup is great because he can throw it in any count against any hitter.

So far this season, the whiff rate on Hamels’ changeup has been right in line with his staggering career average of 27%, but his called strike rate has dropped from 14% to 8%. Unsurprisingly, his walk rate on at-bats ending in a changeup has doubled, driving his overall walk rate to a career-worst 10.6%.

Hamels is struggling to throw his best pitch for strikes, and he’s throwing fewer changeups in hitter’s counts. Without the changeup to worry about, hitters are either taking more walks and having more success against his other pitches.

Hamels’ 4.78 ERA and 4.29 FIP aren’t encouraging, but I don’t see much reason to think that his skills have diminished; he still ranks ninth among qualified starters in swinging strike rate.

Let’s cut the guy a break. It’s early in the season and he’s still working to get a feel for his pitches. Trade for him with the confidence that he’ll be exactly what we expect him to be: a great source of ERA, WHIP, and Ks for the rest of the season.

Kris Medlen | Braves | SP by Josh Kay (@JoshKay_Fantasy)

Once you display a skill, you own it. Medlen’s struggles this year have been walks. His ERA has been kept low by his elevated strand rate, thus giving you a good point to drive home when trying to buy low on him. His command has and always will be excellent, he’s just going through a rough patch right now. When a pitcher goes thirteen starts with an ERA under 1.50, there’s going to be some regression. It’s just coming now. Maybe the strikeouts won’t be there like last year, but at worst, he’s a poor mans Jordan Zimmerman, and at best, he will be as good as Jordan Zimmerman. Jordan Zimmerman was my #7 SP in my preseason rankings. There’s your upside to chase.

Jason Heyward | Braves | OF by Alan Harrison (@TheFantasyFix)

The extent at which you can “buy-low” on Jason Heyward  ultimately depends on the seriousness of his abdominal injury. Heyward recently had an emergency appendectomy, landing him on the DL – speculation is that he will be out until late May, but he’s eligible to come off the DL in a week or so. The good news is the injury is not as serious as the one that plagued Adam Dunn in 2011. Matt Holliday suffered the same injury (non-burst appendix), also in 2011, and triple slashed .296/.388/.525 with 22 homers and 75 RBI that season.

Heyward’s triples slash sits at .121/.261/.259 with just two long balls and five runs batted in through 17 games. Makes your eyes hurt looking at that line, doesn’t it? But maybe it’s the .114 average on balls in plays (career .301) that’s contributing to that — or, maybe it’s the spike in FB% to 52% (career ~33%) that’s keeping the BABIP down.

Whatever it may or may not be, Heyward is on the DL and is having some issues at the plate. His stock can only go up from here. Buy.

Filed Under: 2013 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Tagged With: , , , ,

In Search Of Runs: Desmond Jennings A Good Trade Target?

April 30, 2013 by Leave a Comment

At this point, it’s safe to say we can do a decent job of evaluating our team’s strengths and weaknesses. The general rule-of-thumb encourages owners not to panic too early with regards to our stars, but now could be a good opportunity to try and acquire some runs as a throw-in via trade (to an owner that IS panicking) or simply from the waiver wire in deeper leagues.

Here is a trade target and a few run scoring options owned in 40% or less fantasy leagues.

All ownership data based on Yahoo! leagues.

Trade Candidate:

Desmond Jennings | Rays | 92% – The real and fake baseball community has been waiting patiently for the imminent breakout of Rays’ leadoff hitter, Desmond Jennings. But as he approaches his 1,000th career plate appearance in the majors, owners are wondering if that time is ever going to come. Subsequently, owners are growing incredibly impatient with DJ’s inability to become the player fantasy analysts insisted he could be and may be willing to part with the outfielder at a discounted rate.

Let’s look back at an excerpt on Jennings from our 2013 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit written by Josh Kay:

“While it’s too early to call Jennings a bust, his stock is quickly falling in fantasy leagues. Once heralded as a top prospect, the young speedster has had issues with his walk and strikeout rates as he’s ascended the organizational ladder. Since a 0.92 BB/K ratio (anything close to 1.00 is considered elite) in 2009 for the Rays (AA) affiliate, Jennings has seen that BB/K ratio shrink faster and faster. After a 0.38 performance last year, things are not so forward-looking for Jennings to contribute with a batting average of at least .275 with average to above average pop. He’s a pure speed threat and should rack up more SB if he can improve his OBP numbers.”

Well, Josh pretty much hit the nail on the head here. Jennings’ is taking a few more walks — his BB% is up to 10.4% from 8.2% in ‘12 — but he’s also striking out more (23.6% K%). Additionally, and despite the .226/.305/.398 triple slash, Jennings has slugged five homers, swiped five bags and scored 20 runs in 25 games — putting him on pace for 19/33/130 if he were to play 162. The 130 run pace would have been good enough for the most runs scored in 2012.

Ask the Jennings owner in your league what it would take to pry him away. Tell him the batting average stinks.

On The Wire:

Daniel Nava | Red Sox | 38% – Nava has scored 15 runs in just 21 games, putting him on pace for 115 runs over the course of a full season. In addition to the runs that you’re here looking for, Nava will provide a healthy balance in three of the other four traditional categories — for now — with the exception of stolen bases. His current .340 average on balls in play, versus a career .313 BABIP, should cause his batting average to dip a bit, but Nava should be a decent source of runs from here on out.

Gerrardo Parra | Diamondbacks | 33% – 18 runs in 26 games for Parra thus far in ‘13. But the questions going forward is: how many plate appearances will he earn upon the return of both  Jason Kubel and Adam Eaton? Ride him in rotisserie leagues while you can.

Jon Jay | Cardinals | 15% – Jay is another outfielder who’s currently struggling at the plate (.221 BA), but when he gets on base, he tends to score runs. Deeper mixed leagues need only apply.

David DeJesus | Cubs | 5%  and Chris Getz | Royals | 5% – Both have scored 14 runs despite DeJesus getting on base more than Getz. These guys are serviceable in the deepest of leagues and will contribute to more than just the runs category.

Filed Under: 2013 Fantasy Baseball, Alan Harrison, Fantasy Baseball Tagged With: , ,

2013 Fantasy Baseball, Week 4 Tools of the Trade: Selling-Low On Giancarlo Stanton?

April 25, 2013 by 4 Comments

TheFantasyFix.com’s “Tools of the Trade” is a unique guide for owners to use while attempting to make an even trade with their league-mates in a standard 12-team mixed, 5×5 head-to-head or rotisserie redraft league.

The values present in this guide are simply the basis for a trade. A full-blown analysis of each team’s strengths and weaknesses are essential prior to proposing or accepting a trade offer.

How to use the guide: Ideally, owners will agree to a trade that will aid both sides and stay within $2-3 of each other in a one-for-one and $4-5 in a multi-player deal, according to our chart.

The Week 1 “Tools of the Trade” was free for all readers, and so is this weeks! But going forward, the “Tools of the Trade” will only be available to Front Office members. Learn the benefits of being a Front Office member here.
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Filed Under: Fantasy Baseball, Front Office
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