2013 Fantasy Baseball Rookie Report, Week 8: Gregorius Raking at the Plate

May 22, 2013 by Leave a Comment

We’ve been given a great crop of rookie pitchers in 2013. The hitters? Not so much. Evan Gattis, with eight home runs, is the only rookie to hit more than four home runs as of Tuesday evening. Light-hitting Pete Kozma is second in RBI with 17. Only A.J. Pollock has stolen more than four bases. Out of those three only Kozma has an OBP above .300. Seven of the 17 rookie hitters with at least 60 at-bats have OBPs under .300. The days of Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, Yoenis Cespedes and Manny Machado seem much more like 1972, not 2012.

Photo credit: sec116pix

Photo credit: sec116pix

Didi Gregorius, known more for his glove than his bat, leads all rookie hitters in Fangraphs WAR at 1.4. Gregorius has 12 extra-base hits in only 84 at-bats with a more than respectable seven walks and 13 strikeouts. He’s hitting .360/.415/.581, and every one of those numbers is much higher than what almost anyone expected of Gregorius in ’13. His current BABIP is .412; the highest BABIP he had in any minor league season was .357, which came in a seven-game sample earlier this season. So we should automatically expect Gregorius’s average to come way down in the future, especially considering he’s hitting 42 percent of balls in play in the air and only 33 percent of balls in play on the ground. Fly balls are much more likely to be turned into an out than ground balls are. For Gregorius to maintain close to what he’s done so far he’ll need to start hitting more grounders and beat some of them out for infield hits, which he already has two of. Gregorius is crushing righties to the tune of a .446/.492/.595 line with all three homers and nine total extra-base hits, but he’s equally bad against lefties (.214/.290/.321 with only three extra-base hits). His BABIP against righties is an insane .478. The highest BABIP against righties in the majors from 2010 to current day is Austin Jackson’s .379, so Gregorius’s BABIP against righties should drop at least 100 points and there goes a lot of his value.

Julio Teheran‘s 3.99 ERA and 1.35 WHIP are yawn-worthy for those of us outside of NL-only leagues, but those numbers don’t tell most of the story. After pitching only 16 innings and allowing 13 earned runs in his first three starts this season, Teheran has pitched very well in his last five starts, culminating in an 8.1-inning, one-earned run win over Minnesota Monday night. In those five starts Teheran has a 2.41 ERA over 33.2 innings. While he’s still not striking out many (only 18 in the five starts) he’s only walked two batters in that same time span. And he’s not just getting lucky in his last few starts, either. Teheran’s BABIP of .315 in those five starts is actually higher than his season total (.311). He’s also throwing more strikes and getting more whiffs from hitters. Looking at Teheran’s Brooks Baseball page the numbers show us he’s pitching more to contact so far in May, where he has a 2.53 ERA, 10 strikeouts and only one walk. He’s striking out fewer guys in May, but he’s also walking a lot fewer hitters and he’s cut his HR/9 from April’s 1.59 to May’s 0.84. It seems like he’s figured something out so I’d trust him in leagues deeper than 12 teams and in spot start duty in 12-teamers.

Jake Odorizzi didn’t pull a Tony Cingrani and dominate in his 2013 debut, but he did fairly well, pitching five innings and allowing three earned runs while striking out six and walking one. A blown safe-out call made Odorizzi’s line look worse than what it should’ve been, too. Odorizzi is filling in for the injured David Price, who suffered a strained left triceps. I didn’t watch his start, so I won’t comment on how he looked. But Odorizzi was ranked the 45th best prospect in baseball by MLB.com and appeared both in Baseball America’s top 100 list and Keith Law’s top 100 prospect list. He has the profile of a solid major-league pitcher, as well as a four-pitch repertoire. Pitching in the AL East isn’t easy, and we don’t know how long Odorizzi will stay in Tampa Bay’s rotation. Rays manager Joe Maddon said Price should only miss two or three starts, but we all know how overly optimistic managers are. So Odorizzi should make at least two more starts with the chance for several more. Don’t expect any ace-like numbers, or even Cingrani-like numbers, but he should be a decent fill-in for the Rays and a worthy pick-up for 14-team leagues and deeper.

Filed Under: 2013 Fantasy Baseball, Andrew Miller Tagged With: , , , , ,

Two-start pitchers and SP streamers: Week 8

May 19, 2013 by 1 Comment
  1. Clayton Kershaw at MIL, vs. STL

    Photo credit: Culture Shlock

    Photo credit: Culture Shlock

  2. Shelby Miller at SD, LAD
  3. Max Scherzer at CLE, vs. MIN
  4. Cole Hamels at MIA, WSH
  5. Jon Lester at CWS, vs. CLE
  6. Hisashi Iwakuma at CLE, vs. TEX
  7. Wandy Rodriguez vs. CHC, at MIL
  8. Patrick Corbin at COL, vs. SD
  9. Johnny Cueto at NYM, vs. CHC
  10. Yovani Gallardo vs. LAD, PIT
  11. Matt Garza at PIT, CIN
  12. Julio Teheran vs. MIN, at NYM
  13. Jerome Williams vs. SEA, at KC
  14. Bartolo Colon at TEX, HOU
  15. Jeremy Guthrie at HOU, vs. LAA
  16. Dylan Axelrod vs. BOS, MIA

Other two-start pitchers I’d not recommend starting:

  • Scott Kazmir vs. SEA, at BOS
  • Felix Doubront at CWS, vs. CLE
  • Freddy Garcia vs. NYY, at TOR
  • Miguel Gonzalez vs. NYY, at TOR
  • Corey Kluber vs. DET, at BOS
  • Lucas Harrell vs. KC, OAK
  • Wade Davis at HOU, vs. LAA
  • Kevin Correia at ATL, DET
  • Mike Pelfrey at ATL, DET
  • Phil Hughes at BAL, TB
  • Josh Lindblom vs. OAK, at SEA
  • Ramon Ortiz vs. TB, BAL
  • Chad Jenkins vs. TB, BAL
  • Jon Garland vs. ARZ, at SF
  • Alex Sanabia vs. PHI, at CWS
  • Shaun Marcum vs. CIN, ATL
  • Jason Marquis vs. STL, at ARZ
  • Ryan Vogelsong vs. WSH, COL

Top streaming options available in less than 50 percent of ESPN leagues

A.J. Griffin – Saturday at Houston – Griffin’s had three straight good starts, allowing only four earned runs in 20.2 innings against the Yankees, Indians and Rangers. He’s already pitched well against the Astros earlier this year, and when you’re streaming starters picking one who’s pitching against Houston is always a wise idea.

Hector Santiago – Friday vs. Miami – The same that’s said for Houston is also applicable for Miami. The Marlins are the worst hitting team in the league by far. They’ve only scored more than four runs twice from May 2nd to the 18th. Before getting roughed up Saturday in Los Angeles, Santiago had three straight nice starts with at least six strikeouts in each of them. Santiago’s strikeout and walk rates are still good, too.

Francisco Liriano – Wednesday vs. Chicago Cubs – Despite not making it out of the sixth inning in either of his first two starts of 2013, Liriano’s struck out nine and seven batters, respectively, while only allowing one earned run in both starts. The Cubs hit lefties OK, but the Brewers crush lefties and Liriano pitched well against them last week. As long as Liriano doesn’t get destroyed in 1.1 innings this week, he should put up another similar line to his first two starts.

Jose Fernandez – Tuesday vs. Philadelphia – I’m cheating a bit here since Fernandez is owned in 56 percent of leagues, but he should be owned in quite a few more. The youngster’s had three straight quality starts (2.25 ERA) with an average of seven strikeouts and two walks a start. He’s holding lefties to a .587 OPS, and he’s only walked one right-handed batter in 63 plate appearances. The Phillies rank in the bottom seven against righties in OBP, slugging, wOBA and wRC+.

Filed Under: Andrew Miller, Fantasy Baseball Tagged With: ,

2013 Fantasy Baseball Daily Fix: May 17, 2013

May 17, 2013 by Leave a Comment

It’s Friday! That means it’s time to enter the “Spring Fling” over at DraftKings. This is a chance to turn an $11 entry fee into a $20,000 first place prize! Enter here!

DraftKings Team of the Day

Today I’m playing the $1 Double Up contest. It’s very easy for beginners to get involved with and doesn’t cost much at all to play. Don’t forget your deposit bonus when you sign up at DraftKings.

Trevor Cahill at Miami – Cahill has the fifth highest ground ball percentage among starters, and his repertoire should play well in Miami’s spacious park.

Jaime Garcia vs. Milwaukee – Uneasy about this one, because anytime I trust Jaime he always just lets me down. But he’s pitched well this year especially in two starts against the Brewers. [Read more...]

Filed Under: Andrew Miller, Fantasy Baseball Tagged With: , , , , , , , ,

2013 Fantasy Baseball Rookie Report, Week 7: Miller vs. Ryu for Rookie of the Year

May 15, 2013 by Leave a Comment

Two clear front-runners for the National League Rookie of the Year award have emerged through the first quarter of the season, St. Louis’s Shelby Miller and the Dodgers’ Hyun-Jin Ryu. Both started the season well. Ryu has had a couple rough outings and bounced back from them, and Miller has been dominant in every start except two where he failed to get out of the sixth inning both times but just allowed two and three runs, respectively. [Read more...]

Filed Under: Andrew Miller, Fantasy Baseball Tagged With: , , , , ,

Two-start pitchers and SP streamers: Week 7

May 12, 2013 by Leave a Comment

Must-starts

  • Jake Peavy at MIN, LAA
  • Anibal Sanchez vs. HOU, at TEX
  • Doug Fister vs. HOU, at TEX
  • CC Sabathia vs. SEA, TOR
Photo credit: Brule Laker

Photo credit: Brule Laker

  • Matt Moore vs. BOS, at BAL
  • Derek Holland at OAK, vs. DET
  • Wade Miley vs. ATL, at MIA
  • Mike Minor at ARZ, vs. LAD
  • Homer Bailey at MIA, PHI
  • A.J. Burnett vs. MIL, HOU
  • Lance Lynn vs. NYM, MIL
  • Jordan Zimmermann at LAD, SD

Quality starts

  • John Lackey at TB, MIN
  • Travis Wood vs. COL, NYM
  • Kyle Lohse at PIT, STL
  • Jake Westbrook vs. NYM, MIL
  • Andrew Cashner at BAL, vs. WSH
  • Dan Haren at LAD, SD
  • Barry Zito at TOR, COL
  • Hector Santiago at MIN, LAA
  • R.A. Dickey vs. SF, at NYY
  • A.J. Griffin vs. TEX, KC
  • David Phelps at CLE, vs. TOR
  • Jason Vargas vs. KC, CWS
  • Jeff Locke vs. MIL, HOU

AL-/NL-only and deeper league options

  • Bud Norris at DET, PIT
  • Justin Grimm at OAK, vs. DET
  • Josh Beckett vs. WSH, at ATL

Bench ‘em

  • Juan Nicasio at CHC, vs. SF
  • Jeff Francis at CHC, vs. SF
  • Luis Mendoza at LAA, OAK
  • Joe Blanton vs. KC, CWS
  • Alex Sanabia vs. CIN, ARI
  • Hiram Burgos at PIT, STL
  • Pedro Hernandez vs. CWS, BOS
  • Dillon Gee at STL, CHC
  • Jeremy Hefner at STL, CHC
  • Aaron Harang at NYY, CLE

Top streaming options available in less than 50 percent of ESPN leagues

Francisco Liriano – Thursday vs. Milwaukee – Liriano dominated the Mets Saturday in his first start of the season for the Pirates. He struck out nine and gave up six hits and walked two in only 5.1 innings of one-run ball, pitching on a 90-pitch limit. Thirty-five percent of his strikes were swung at and missed; Yu Darvish leads the league in swing-and-miss percentage at a measly – compared to Liriano – 16.7 percent.

Ross Detwiler – Wednesday at Los Angeles Dodgers – Detwiler’s 1.36 WHIP suggests his 2.53 ERA is a mirage, but his ERA shouldn’t be that much higher. He’s limiting his walks, getting a good amount of ground balls and keeping the ball in the park. Oh, and the Dodgers are measly offensively.

Kevin Correia – Tuesday vs. Chicago White Sox – Correia isn’t as good as his 3.09 ERA suggests, but the 32-year-old is pitching extremely well at home (1.86 ERA) with a better K% and BB% compared to his road numbers. The White Sox are the second to worst road offense by wRC+.

Zach McAllister – Saturday vs. Seattle – McAllister shutout the A’s – the highest scoring team in the league – Tuesday over seven innings, and outside of a five-walk start against the White Sox he’s been pretty impressive. Yeah, he could get hit hard by the Tigers Sunday, but don’t let that scare you off. Seattle’s not a good offensive team by any measure, and McAllister is doing a good job limiting both hits and walks with consistent, if a bit low, strikeout numbers.

Week 6 streaming stats (Wood, Hammel): 10.2 IP, 5.9 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 14 K, 4 BB, 1 QS, 1 W.

Filed Under: Andrew Miller, Fantasy Baseball Tagged With: , , , , , ,

2013 Fantasy Baseball Daily Fix: May 10

May 10, 2013 by Leave a Comment

DraftKings.com Team of the Day

Today I’m playing the $3 Double Up! contest where you’ve got a 50/50 shot of making money. When you sign up to play at DraftKings don’t forget to claim your deposit bonus.

Pitcher: Jose Fernandez vs. Dodgers – The Dodgers are 28th in wRC+ against right-handers and have the third fewest runs scored in the majors.

Alexi Ogando vs. Astros – The Astros strike out the most against righties

Catcher: Russell Martin – Martin has a .941 OPS against righties like opposing starter Shaun Marcum.

First base: Yonder Alonso – Alonso was a good value pick as he has hit righties well throughout his career.

Second base: Robinson Cano – I had money to spend so why not go with the highest upside guy at the position?

Third base: Miguel Cabrera – Third-highest OBP with a 1.088 OPS against righties.

Shortstop: Dee Gordon – I had to go a little cheap here since I picked Cano and Miggy, but I’m just hoping Gordon can steal a base or two and get a run.

Outfield: Shin-Soo Choo – Choo should be the priciest outfielder, but he’s $1,600 less than Mike Trout even though Choo is averaging the fourth most fantasy points per game of players who’ve played the whole season. And he’s crushing righties right now.

Marcell Ozuna – Ozuna was a bargain at only $2,000.

Nate McLouth – Nine steals and a .425 OBP against righties.

Thursday Recap

Robinson Cano recorded his 1,500th hit in the major leagues in the Yankees’ 3-1 win in Colorado becoming the fifth-fastest Yankee to reach 1,500 hits. Cano also hit his ninth homer, which puts him on pace for just about 42 homers.

Twenty-twelve Cy Young winners R.A. Dickey and David Price squared off in Tampa and Price came out on top pitching his best game of the season – 8 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 K. Expect more lines like that from the Vanderbilt product in the near future. Dickey, on the other hand, continues to struggle. He walked five in six innings, and like Price is allowing a lot of home runs. But, unlike Price, Dickey is walking a ton of guys – about 4 percentage points more than last year. Dickey’s had struggles like this before – a 4.45 April ’12 ERA and a 5.13 July ’12 ERA – so I think you just have to ride out the storm unless you get a really good offer for him.

Scott Kazmir struck out 10 and walked none in a six-inning, one-run start against the A’s. He’s now had three decent to good starts in a row.

The Twins won 5-3 and took three of four from the Red Sox. Minnesota is now 16-15 on the season and a respectable 9-9 on the road. John Lackey struck out eight in seven innings but allowed five runs in total, only one of which was earned. He lowered his ERA to 2.82 even though his WHIP is still not that pretty. Lackey’s ERA in the mid-’00s always seemed to be better than what his WHIP indicated it should be, so he could be a decent spot starter in the coming weeks.

Brian McCann hit his first home run of the season off Ryan Vogelsong in San Francisco. Eric Hosmer also hit his first homer of 2013. He’s now six for his last 16.

Dan Haren picked up the W against Detroit, but he allowed four earned in six innings and gave up nine hits. Haren’s strikeout rate still isn’t very good, and his home run and ground ball numbers are career-worsts.

 

Filed Under: Andrew Miller, Fantasy Baseball Tagged With:

2013 Fantasy Baseball Rookie Report, Week 6: Grimm’s Outlook Not So Grim

May 8, 2013 by 1 Comment

Last year was a very good year for rookies. Mike Trout and Bryce Harper had obviously historic seasons, and Yoenis Cespedes, Yu Darvish and Norichika Aoki, among many others, impressed in their first seasons in Major League Baseball. This year’s rookie crop isn’t as star-heavy, but the members of the group are doing a great job transitioning from the minors to The Show.

Photo credit: Rick Yeatts, Getty Images

Photo credit: Rick Yeatts, Getty Images

Tony Cingrani, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Shelby Miller, Jose Fernandez and Justin Grimm have all pitched at least 20 innings and are averaging a strikeout per inning coming into Tuesday night. I’ve covered those first four in this space recently, but Texas’s Grimm has quietly pitched well in his first four starts racking up three straight quality starts with two nine-strikeout games. [Read more...]

Filed Under: Andrew Miller, Fantasy Baseball Tagged With: , , , , , ,

Two-start pitchers and SP streamers: Week 6

May 5, 2013 by Leave a Comment
Photo credit: jeffcutler

Photo credit: jeffcutler

Must-starts

  • Madison Bumgarner – vs. PHI, ATL
  • Clay Buchholz – vs. MIN, TOR
  • Cliff Lee – at SF, ARI
  • Jake Peavy – at KC, vs. LAA
  • Hiroki Kuroda – at COL, KC
  • James Shields – vs. CWS, NYY
  • Kris Medlen – at CIN, SF
  • Trevor Cahill – at LAD, vs. PHI
  • Tommy Milone – at CLE, SEA
  • Paul Maholm – at CIN, SF
  • Ryan Dempster – vs. MIN, TOR

Good options

  • Jeremy Hellickson – vs. TOR, SD
  • Josh Beckett – vs. ARI, MIA
  • Wei-Yin Chen – vs. KC, at MIN
  • C.J. Wilson – at HOU, CWS
  • Ervin Santana – at BAL, vs. NYY
  • Andrew Cashner – vs. MIA, at TB
  • Kyle Kendrick – at SF, ARI

AL-/NL-only league plays

  • Brandon McCarthy – at LAD, PHI
  • James McDonald – vs. SEA, at NYM
  • Tim Lincecum – vs. PHI, ATL
  • Jarrod Parker – at CLE, SEA
  • Bronson Arroyo – vs. ATL, MIL
  • Nick Tepesch – at CHC, HOU
  • Roberto Hernandez – vs. TOR, SD
  • J.A. Happ – at TB, BOS

Bench ‘em

  • Vance Worley – at BOS, vs. BAL
  • Mark Buehrle – at TB, BOS
  • Ubaldo Jimenez – vs. OAK, at DET
  • Jorge De La Rosa – vs. NYY, at STL
  • Erik Bedard – vs. LAA, TEX
  • Zach McAllister – vs. OAK, at DET
  • Wade LeBlanc – at SD, LAD
  • Scott Feldman – vs. TEX, at WSH
  • Scott Diamond – at BOS, vs. BAL
  • Jeremy Hefner – vs. CWS, PIT

Top streaming options available in over 50 percent of ESPN leagues

Felix Doubront – Wednesday vs. Minnesota – Doubront was roughed up in his last outing, but that was his first bad start of the year. He won’t help you with your WHIP, but his Ks and a good chance for a W make up for that.

Travis Wood – Tuesday vs. St. Louis – Wood has a quality start in each game this season, and his WHIP is a nice 0.91. The Cardinals always struggle against soft-tossing and/or unknown lefties, and their 74 wRC+ against lefties is 25 points lower than their wRC+ against righties.

Jason Hammel – Saturday at Minnesota – The Twins have a below-average offense, and are worse against righties than lefties.

Tommy Hanson – Friday at Chicago White Sox – The White Sox are near the bottom in basically every offensive category, and only Alex Rios is really playing well. Hanson hasn’t been great in his last three starts, but he’s been, um, effective at least.

Week 5 streaming stats (Kendrick, Gee, Corbin, Cashner): 23 IP, 4.30 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 14 K, 11 BB, 3 W, 2 QS.

Filed Under: Andrew Miller, Fantasy Baseball Tagged With: , ,

2013 Fantasy Baseball Daily Fix: May 3, 2013

May 3, 2013 by Leave a Comment

DraftKings.com Team of the Day

The calendar has turned to May, but the same story lines keep coming through. The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox are on top of the division again like normal. Meanwhile, the so-called power division in the American League (AL West) is sputtering along. The big picture doesn’t necessarily matter at Draftkings where you can take advantage of their deposit bonus.

Today, we we will be playing the $11 Double Up. Sure, it’s a bit of an investment, but you have a 50 percent chance of collecting a twenty spot for your trouble. There is definitely a lot of room for error in this one and it still satisfies those that want a little more juice in play.

Pitchers: Shelby Miller vs. Milwaukee, Wade Miley vs. San Diego – Both pitchers cost $8,700 and were reasonable values. The Brewers are a pretty good-hitting team, but Miller’s been on fire and won’t hamstring your budget. Anytime you can go against the Padres in San Diego you have to go with that pitcher.

Catcher: Matt Wieters – Wieters is much better against lefties like Jason Vargas, whom he’ll face tonight.

First baseman: Mark Reynolds – Reynolds is crushing this season, and opposing starter Pedro Hernandez isn’t exactly Pedro Martinez.

Second baseman: Jose Altuve – Altuve’s hitting righties like opposing starter Doug Fister very well.

Third baseman: Nolan Arenado – Arenado only cost $2,000, and while he’s got a tough matchup against Matt Moore better pitchers have gone to Coors and never survived to tell the tale.

Shortstop: Ian Desmond – Desmond has 13 extra-base hits against righties this season, and righty A.J. Burnett is starting against Washington tonight.

Outfield: Matt Kemp, Torii Hunter, Austin Jackson – Kemp is .436/.508/.655 in his career against scheduled opposing starter Barry Zito. Hunter and Jackson were very good values against Bud Norris

Thursday Roundup

With only eight games played Thursday there were still several good pitching performances by several unforeseen top pitchers of the early season.

  • The National League ERA leader, Jake Westbrook, pitched six effective innings in Milwaukee and struck out four while allowing only one run. His ERA rose to 1.07 from 0.98. Even though Westbrook obviously won’t keep his ERA that low all year (as a Cardinals fan I hope he does) his FIP is a nice 3.56, which is the best of his career. His ground ball rate is over 60 percent, which is good for second in the majors behind teammate Jaime Garcia, and he hasn’t allowed a home run yet because he’s only giving up a fly ball on 21 percent of balls in play.
  • Travis Wood was in line for the win in Chicago, but he gave up three runs in the eighth and was taken out after 7.2 innings. He only gave up four hits and one walk as his ERA rose to 2.50. Wood now has a quality start in every start this season, but is still owned in less than 40 percent of ESPN leagues. He’s one of the best streaming options available on most waiver wires.
  • Kyle Kendrick‘s now owned in 58 percent of ESPN leagues, but that number should rise after his fifth straight quality start, a seven-inning, two-run outing against Miami. The righty struck out five and walked two, and his ERA is now at 2.43. Todd Zolecki, the Phillies’ MLB.com beat writer, tweeted Thursday night that Kendrick has a 3.30 ERA in 29 starts dating back to May 5, 2012. The advanced stats like Kendrick the least of the three starters I’ve touched on, but I like Kendrick at least a bit better than Wood because the former does a good job inducing ground balls and limiting his walks. And his BABIP has nearly always been below the .290-.300 area that’s considered average. I think he’s worth a roster spot in most leagues.

News and notes

  • Josh Johnson was placed on the 15-day DL with right triceps inflammation. The Blue Jays will start Ricky Romero in Johnson’s spot on Friday.
  • Jake Peavy was scratched from Thursday’s start due to back spasms. Peavy could start as early as Saturday in Kansas City.
  • Joel Hanrahan picked up his fourth save of the season Thursday taking over the ninth-inning duties from Andrew Bailey, who’s dealing with soreness in his biceps.
Filed Under: Andrew Miller, Fantasy Baseball

2013 Fantasy Baseball Rookie Report, Week 5: Sell High on Cingrani

May 3, 2013 by Leave a Comment

Since coming up to replace Cincinnati ace Johnny Cueto a couple weeks ago Tony Cingrani has done a remarkable Cueto impersonation. The rookie lefthander has improved in each of his three outings this season, culminating with a stellar six-inning performance Sunday in Washington. He struck out 11 while walking only one and giving up two hits. He even struck out four batters in one inning. In 18 innings this season Cingrani’s struck out 28 and walked only four while allowing only three runs with a .89 WHIP. He’s been much better than I, or almost everyone, expected he’d be, and even with Cueto due back fairly soon it seems he’s secured his spot in the Reds rotation for at least the near future.

Photo credit: Doug Gray

Photo credit: Doug Gray

And now should be the time you try to remove him from your rotation. Any pitcher can have a good three-start stretch in the majors, especially when you consider different factors like the weather, opponents and plain old luck. In facing the Cubs, Nationals and Marlins, Cingrani’s pitched against the 22nd-, 28th- and 30th-ranked offenses by wRC+. If you don’t like those newfangled stats, Cingrani’s three opponents rank on average 28th in OBP, and only the Cubs rank higher than 23rd in slugging. Even against those teams Cingrani’s been very good, but as teams see more of him in the majors they should be able to adjust and begin hitting him. On the season Cingrani’s throwing his fastball 79 percent of the time, and against Washington he threw it 86 percent of the time. Those numbers will have to come down for him to continue his success. On nine of his 10 non-pitcher strikeouts against Washington Cingrani threw a fastball, as he doesn’t own a swing-and-miss pitch that he can locate in the zone more times than not. He also threw a lot of fastballs high in the zone when he was ahead in the count, and against tougher lineups those pitches will be hit hard. His fastball has very little if any late movement, as well, so it should be an easy pitch to square up. You should try to shop Cingrani as soon as possible for perhaps a player who’s gotten off to a slow start who should pick it up soon.

Dan Straily also replaced an injured starter and made his second start of the season Monday against the Angels. This one didn’t go as well as his 11-strikeout gem on April 5 against the Astros, though. He allowed two homers and six earned runs in only 4.2 innings, but he did strike out six and walked only one. He also got 15 swings-and-misses. We’re dealing with too much of a small sample size to declare mostly anything, but Straily, who’s owned in only four percent of ESPN leagues and 10 percent of Yahoo! leagues, makes for a quality streaming option in pretty much every home start and some away starts depending on the matchup.

Colorado’s Nolan Arenado made his MLB debut Sunday and hit his first big league home run Monday. The 22-year-old is a career .299/.345/.473 hitter in the minors and was off to a scorching hot start in AAA this year. He’s penciled in as the Rockies’ third baseman for what should be the rest of the season. Even though his minor league numbers are inflated by playing at altitude and in the Pacific Coast League, he’ll be playing his home games in the Mile High City and in a very hitter-friendly ballpark. So even if he struggles, which he will eventually, he’ll automatically receive a boost just by playing half his games in Denver. We saw what Wilin Rosario did last year in his rookie season, and Rosario wasn’t nearly as highly ranked a prospect as Arenado has been in recent years. While I won’t speculate to what Arenado will do for the rest of the season he’s definitely addable in leagues of more than 12 teams.

Monitoring the Minors

  • One potential mid-season call up is Baltimore’s Kevin Gausman, who’s currently pitching at Double-A Bowie. Even though his ERA is 3.77, in 28.2 innings Gausman’s struck out 29 and walked one. The O’s called up Dylan Bundy last year late in the season, and Gausman ranks right after Bundy when talking about Baltimore’s prospects. His is just a name to keep in mind for later in the season, or if you’re in a deep league you might want to pick him up a little bit sooner.
  • Oscar Taveras, MLB.com’s No. 3 overall prospect, is hitting the ball well in his first taste of Triple-A action. He’s batting .299 with a .333 OBP, two home runs and three steals. He’s walked four times while striking out nine times in 21 games.
  • Nick Franklin, the Mariners’ No. 2 position prospect, is currently treating the Pacific Coast League like Barry Bonds treated MLB in the early 2000s. Franklin’s slashing .400/.524/.600 with three home runs and four steals in 18 games. He’s walked 16 times and struck out only nine times. The 22-year-old can play both middle infield positions, and with the state of the middle infield in Seattle being worse than, well, pretty much everything, Franklin’s almost assured a mid-season call up.
Filed Under: Andrew Miller, Fantasy Baseball Tagged With: , , , , , , ,
«Older Posts