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Fantasy Baseball Week 8 Waiver Wire: 3 to Cut, 3 to Catch, 3 to Keep

May 20, 2013 by Gerard Martin Leave a Comment

photo credit: Keith Allison via photopin cc

Fantasy baseball 3×3 is back again. This week, we’re catching Big Erv, resisting the impulse to trade Paul Goldschmidt, and grabbing a spot on Waveland Avenue for Travis Wood’s next start.

3 TO CUT

Tony Cingrani | Cincinnati Reds | SP

It’s fitting that Tony Cingrani would be sent down right around graduation season; you should treat him just like you treated your girlfriend after you graduated from high school and headed off to college.

Break up.

You think long distance can work. You think, “Louisville isn’t that far away, right?”

You can’t shake the memories of that 11.18 K/9. But it’s over.

Sure, there’s a chance you’ll run into each other some time down the line, but for now, there’s no benefit in being loyal. It’ll never be as good as you remembered it the second time around; that deceptive delivery won’t make your heart flutter quite so much once you’ve already seen it.

I know it’s hard, but it’s for your own good. There are plenty more fish in the sea.

Jeremy Guthrie | Kansas City Royals | SP

If you look up the term “sell-high” in the Oxford English Dictionary, you’ll find the following entry.

Credit: Keith Allison

GUTHRIE, JEREMY

“Yeah, I don’t know how I did it either.”

Guthrie’s 2.28 ERA is 25th-best among qualified starters.

His 5.55 FIP is fourth-worst.

He’s been quite a lucky fellow through his first 8 starts. His .256 BABIP is well below league average; it drops to an even more favorable .207 when Guthrie allows runners to reach scoring position. Knowing that, it’s no surprise that only one out of every 20 runners to reach base against Guthrie has come around to score.

His luck is bound to change for the worse and Guthrie’s his complete inability to miss bats at even a league-average will compound that negative regression into a catastrophic decline in ERA and WHIP. If he continues to throw this many hittable strikes, he’s going to pitch his way right out of the Royals rotation.

Sell if you can. If not, feel free to drop him now.

Travis Wood | Chicago Cubs | SP

Yeah, yeah, yeah, a .193 BABIP and 83% strand rate make Travis Wood a prime candidate for a healthy dose of negative regression, but that’s not what I’m most concerned about.

In 144 innings last season, Wood allowed 1.44 HR/9 and a 12.7% HR/FB rate.

Through 53.1 innings this season, he’s cut both rates in half, giving up only 0.68 HR/9 and a 6.1% HR/FB rate.

I realize that Wood wasn’t that homer-prone in the first two seasons of his career as he was in 2012, but he pitched differently back then. Over the last two seasons, he’s significantly decreased the use of his 4-seam fastball in favor of a cutter; wouldn’t you know it, that cutter allows home runs about 25% more often than the 4-seamer.

I’ll always be skeptical of a fly ball pitcher who plays his home games in Wrigley Field, especially when that pitcher doesn’t have the ability to reach back and get a strikeout in a tough spot. Did I mention that Wood’s career strikeout rate is 20.9% with the bases empty and only 14.4% with men on base?

As the weather warms up in Chicago, I expect Wood’s numbers to move closer to those of last year’s second half. You know, the second half when he allowed 1.63 HR/9 and sported a 5.03 ERA.

3 TO CATCH

Lance Berkman | Texas Rangers | 1B

Don’t look now, but Lance Berkman is doing Lance Berkman things again. He’s walking 17% of the time, striking out significantly less often than that, and producing runs for the best baseball team in Texas.

After an injury riddled 2012, this year’s Lance Berkman looks a lot like the 2011 model. You know, the one that clubbed 31 homers with a .959 OPS and a .301 batting average in St. Louis.

I don’t think he’ll quite match those numbers in his age-37 season, but the Texas heat and his full-time DH gig should conspire to get him pretty damn close.

Berkman’s average will slide a bit as his BABIP eases down by 20 points or so, but positive regression in his 7.1% HR/FB rate (it will probably double) will balance out his overall value.

If you’re lucky enough to play in the 38% of Yahoo! leagues in which Berkman is still available, scoop him up now. You’ll have to keep an eye out for any series that send the Rangers to NL ballparks, but you’ll grab about 325 plate appearances worth of fantasy goodness.

Ervin Santana | Kansas City Royals | SP

Unlike his deservedly maligned teammate, Ervin Santana has earned every bit of his sparking 2.77 ERA. He’s displayed the best control of his career, dropping his walk rate to a career low 4.1%, while posting his best strikeout rate since 2008. Santana has never lacked swing-and-miss stuff; his issue has been throwing enough strikes early to set up his devastating slider.

This season’s improved fastball command has put Santana in more pitchers counts, allowing him to rely more heavily on his best pitch. Hitters are chasing 32.1% of Santana’s offerings out of the zone; his career average is only 29.7%.

Santana has always been a bit homer-prone, that hasn’t changed, but he’s mitigating that the negative impact of that tendency by generating more grounders and fewer fly balls, along with limiting the number of baserunners who get to ride home on the homers that he does allow.

He hasn’t suddenly turned himself into a Cy Young contender, but Santana will be more than useful over the rest of the season as a solid source of strikeouts with a surprisingly palatable WHIP and ERA.

Gerardo Parra | Arizona Diamondbacks | OF

Do you really need a good reason to have a guy named “Gerardo” on your fantasy team? I mean, other than this?

Ok, fine.

Given the numbers he’s put up over the course of his still young career, the only reason not to consider Parra is his chronic struggle for consistent playing time. He’s unquestionably the best defender in the D’Backs’ outfield; one can only surmise that his grit and grind numbers (which the Arizona analytics department reportedly keeps strictly confidential) haven’t been quite good enough to earn him a spot in Kirk Gibson’s everyday lineup in the past. In any case, injuries have shoved Parra into a full-time job this season; he’s played in 43 of Arizona’s 44 games.

Parra has used his newfound job security to post the best offensive numbers of his career, setting a pace for career highs in walk rate, strikeout rate, and wOBA, while flashing more power than we’ve ever seen from him before.

Parra’s hit only four home runs this season, but his 14 doubles rank seventh in the majors. In a hitter-friendly park like Chase Field, a few of those doubles are bound to clear the fence as the weather warms up.

If he keeps up this pace (and there’s no reason to think he won’t), he’ll earn all the playing time he needs. With 500-plus plate appearances the rest of the way, Parra has a great chance to post 15 homers and 15 steals alongside a .300 batting average.

¡Qué rico!

3 TO KEEP

Allen Craig | St. Louis Cardinals | 1B

After slugging 22 home runs in just over 500 plate appearances last season, Allen Craig’s power has vanished. He’s cleared the fence only twice in 172 plate appearances. His previously strong HR/FB has sunk to 27th-worst among qualified first basemen, slightly better than Eric Hosmer, but not quite measuring up to Justin Smoak’s pace. Craig already had six homers by the time last year, and he didn’t play his first game that season until May 1st!

Still, I’m not worried. Everything else about Craig looks almost identical to last season. His batted ball rates and plate discipline numbers haven’t shifted in any meaningful way; his batting average and OBP are almost exactly the same as his totals from last year.

While he’s only in his fourth season, I feel pretty confident that I know what I’m getting with Craig. His home run total at the end of the season won’t measure up to preseason expectations, but he’s still a good bet to tally at least 15 dingers the rest of the way.

Victor Martinez | Detroit Tigers | C/UTIL

Coming off a torn ACL that stole his 2012 season, Victor Martinez was supposed to be the hitter who’d put the Detroit Tigers already terrifying offense over the top.

The Tigers do rank fourth in baseball in team wOBA, but Martinez can’t take much credit for that; his .250 wOBA ranks dead last among Tiger hitters with at least 50 plate appearances, behind backup catcher Brayan Peña and backup everything else Don Kelly.

Martinez is making contact just as often as should be expected, but those batted balls are finding fielders’ gloves more often than ever before.

Martinez hasn’t finished a season with a BABIP under .300 since 2004. His current .225 mark is due more to bad luck than anything else; I’d bet it’ll be at least .290 by the time October rolls around. As the batting average gets better, so will the runs and RBI. Hitting behind OBP machines Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera, just about anybody can drive in 70 runs or so.

His fading power is a bit more concerning. Martinez’ 3.3% HR/FB rate ranks among the 20 worst in baseball; league leader Justin Upton’s fly balls have found the seats about nine times more frequently than Martinez’.

There’s no question that his power has faded as he’s aged, but Martinez is still on pace to hit more than 30 doubles this year, something he’s done in every full season of his career. He’s still got some pop left in his bat, it’s just not enough to crack 20 homers over a full season.

Especially in leagues in which he’s catcher-eligible, Martinez is a great buy-low target right now. He’ll hit 8-10 homers the rest of the way and provide a boost in batting average, runs, and RBI.

Paul Goldschmidt | Arizona Diamondbacks | 1B

This is not just a hot steak. Paul Goldschmidt is not a sell high candidate. He is this good. Ok, he’s not this good, but he’s, like, Top 20 fantasy hitter good.

I wrote about Goldschmidt before the season; I thought he’d be good, but I didn’t think he’d reach the power/speed pinnacle for first basemen that Derrek Lee reached in 2003 and Lance Berkman reached in 2008.

It seems I was wrong.

Goldschmidt continues to sting liners on almost a quarter of his batted balls, but this season he’s hitting more fly balls, clearing the fence on more than a quarter of those. It’s slight jump in HR/FB rate, but based on the consistent power numbers he’s put up at every level, I don’t believe it’s unsustainable.

One fourth of a season isn’t enough to say with certainly that a hitter has conquered a previously troubling platoon split, but the fact that Goldschmidt is slugging .629 in 126 plate appearances against righties is certainly a positive sign.

Sure, his .383 BABIP will come down a bit, but as we established in the preseason, Goldschmidt is more than capable of maintaining a BABIP in the .350 range over the balance of the season. I still doubt he’ll hit .330, but .300 with 30-plus bombs and 15 steals is absolutely in play.

No batteries included, and no strings attached @gerardowrites

Fantasy Baseball Week 7 Waiver Wire: 3 to Cut, 3 to Catch, 3 to Keep

May 13, 2013 by Gerard Martin 2 Comments

photo credit: Keith Allison via photopin cc

Welcome in again to 3×3, where this week, we’re giving Adam LaRoche more time, embracing the new Roberto Hernandez, and raising Matt Holliday’s threat level to orange.

If you’re wrestling with an issue about any of these players, or any players, for that matter, let’s chat it up in the comments.

3 TO CUT

Matt Holliday | St. Louis Cardinals | OF

There’s a very disturbing trend emerging in Matt Holliday’s stat line. His plate discipline numbers look fine, and although his HR/FB rate is solid, he’s making less powerful contact than ever before in his career.

Holliday has been much more aggressive on pitches in the zone this season, swinging at at 83% clip that’s a full six percentage points higher than his career average. He’s still making a lot of contact, as evidenced by his career-low swinging strike rate, but more often than not, that contact ends up with the ball on the ground.

Holliday’s groundball rate has climbed above 50% for the first time in his career and his current fly ball and line drive rates are both career lows. Unsurprisingly, his slugging percentage has sunk to its lowest level since his rookie season, nearly 100 points below his career average.

Grounders back up the middle are useful, but they’re not the sort of thing you’d expect in droves from a Top-20 fantasy outfielder.

Holliday is only 150 plate appearances into his 2013 campaign, but I don’t expect him to turn things around enough to be the Matt Holliday you drafted. His numbers in the scoring categories are actually pretty good; now is the time to flip him for a player with higher upside.

I’d trade/drop him for: Shin-Soo Choo, Jose Bautista, Chris Davis

Fantasy Baseball Week 6 Waiver Wire: 3 to Cut, 3 to Catch, 3 to Keep

May 7, 2013 by Gerard Martin 8 Comments

photo credit: Dinur via photopin cc

It’s better late than never for the Week 6 edition of fantasy baseball 3×3. This week, we’re catching Dee Gordon, keeping Starling Marte, and writing a passionate love letter to Brett Anderson.

3 TO CUT

Brett Anderson, Oakland A’s SP

“Dearest Brett,

“It’s over. We can’t handle this rollercoaster any longer. You stole our hearts when you started 30 games as a rookie in 2009, but the 43 starts since then have been torture.

“We’d be lying if we said we didn’t still have feelings for you. We’ll always adore your steely blue eyes, your +60% groundball rate, your lefthandedness, your 22% strikeout rate, and those spiffy white cleats, but we can’t allow you to put our hearts of the disabled list any more.

“Love always,

“Your fantasy owners”

I’d trade/drop him for: Andrew Cashner, Ross Detwiler, Jose Fernandez

Justin Masterson, Cleveland Indians SP

The way that the fantasy community reacts to Justin Masterson continually surprises me. Few pitchers are easier to evaluate, yet we consistently try to turn Masterson into something he isn’t.

Masterson has two excellent pitches: a trench-carving sinker and wipeout slider. He’s deadly against righties, but struggles to get lefties out. His slider is very effective against hitters from both sides of the plate, but his fastball and sinker are useless against lefthanded hitters.

In order to become a reliable fantasy starter, Masterson has to improve against lefties. That’s it. Any other positive signs are just random noise.

So, with that in mind, let’s check out lefties’ slugging percentages against Masterson’s 4-seamer and sinker so far this season, courtesy of Brooks Baseball.

Against the fastball: .611

Against the sinker: .519

Yeah.

I’d trade/drop him for: Tony Cingrani, Trevor Cahill, Patrick Corbin

Justin Grimm, Texas Rangers SP

1,7,6,1,4

Those are the ranks of Rangers Ballpark in Arlington in Runs from 2008-2012, according to ESPN Park Factors. I’m not telling you anything new; it’s not easy to pitch in Texas, but it’s even more difficult for pitchers who can’t keep the ball on the ground.

Since 2008, there have been 14 individual seasons in which a Rangers starter posted with a fly ball rate over 40%. In only three of those 14 seasons has the pitcher in question posted an ERA better than 3.75. Colby Lewis did it twice, and Neftali Feliz did it once (albeit in just seven starts last season).

Obviously, you can tell where I’m going with this.

Justin Grimm’s fly ball rate currently sits at 40.6%. He doesn’t have Lewis’ control and guile, nor does he have Feliz’ overpowering fastball.

I’m not saying Grimm is useless; he’s earned every bit of his 2.28 ERA and 23.5% strikeout rate. I’m just saying that the time to get out is now, before his ERA starts to regress toward its eventual landing spot, probably North of 4.00.

If your league uses FAAB and you recently picked up Grimm, check your FAAB bidding records and fire off a trade proposal to an owner who missed acquiring Grimm by just a couple of bucks.

I’d trade/drop him for: Kevin Slowey, Chris Tillman, Felix Doubront

3 TO CATCH

Dee Gordon, Los Angeles Dodgers SS

For at least the next 15 days, Dee Gordon is the starting shortstop for a Major League Baseball team. That means he should be owned in every fantasy league.

He’s got a starting gig for at least two weeks, and could have it for much longer if he plays well and Hanley Ramirez shifts over the third base.

Gordon is a terrible hitter, but that really doesn’t matter. He’s always been a bad hitter, yet he’s managed to swipe a bag about once every ten plate appearances for his career.

Even if his OBP is .250, he could easily steal five or six bases in two weeks. If he happens to have a stretch of favorable BABIP luck, that number could just as easily double.

A player with his speed is an asset, regardless of whether or not your team needs steals. Unless you’ve got absolute monsters at SS, MI, and UNTIL, think about slotting Gordon in right away in roto leagues. Playing him for just this two week stretch gives you a chance to bank a few steals with minimal damage to your batting average. As with any counting stat, banking a surplus of steals early in the season gives you tremendous flexibility to trade from a position of strength later on in the year.

To pick him up, I’d drop: Jhonny Peralta, Andrelton Simmons, Zack Cozart

Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants 1B

Maybe Bruce Bochy lost a bet.

Maybe he drafted Brandon Belt to his own fantasy team.

Maybe Belt has some embarrassing photos stashed away.

For whatever reason, Brandon Belt is finally playing. Though the BABIP dragons have been quite unkind so far, Belt’s batted ball profile shows that he might finally be combining the power he showed in 2011 with the batting average and OBP he flashed in 2012. His 41.1% fly ball rate is just shy of the career high he set two years ago and his 23.3% line drive rate is hot on the heels of the career best he set last season.

Belt’s declining walk rate worries me a bit, but I trust that the patience he’s shown earlier in his career will return.

Belt will surely post 15/10 with a .350-plus OBP, but I think he’s got a real chance to sneak into 20/15 territory this season. As his BABIP luck turns around, he’ll climb back up in the order and have more chances to score and drive in runs.

To pick him up, I’d drop: Garrett Jones, Justin Morneau, Chris Johnson

Jedd Gyorko, San Diego Padres 2B/3B

Jedd Gyorko has emerged as something of an in-season post-hype sleeper; falling to only 27% ownership in Yahoo! leagues. He was supposed to be a flexible source of power, but after a homer-less April, his draft day backers have jumped ship.

It seems like Petco Park has claimed another victim… until you look at Gyorko’s home/road splits. Gyorko’s wOBA at home is .391. On the road, it’s .248.

If it’s not Petco, maybe it’s BABIP?

His .326 BABIP actually seems a bit high, but if Gyorko continues to hit line drives on more than 31% of his batted balls (the second-highest rate among qualified hitters behind only Joey Votto), there’s not reason it should regress toward the league average. If anything, Gyorko’s BABIP should rise.

Still, there is a case to be made that batted ball bad luck has sapped his production. Gyorko is hitting only .172 on fly balls, an unusually low number for a hitter with proven power, especially given his microscopic 3.3% IFFB rate.

As the season goes on, more of Gyorko’s fly balls will clear the fence (I expect his current 6.7% HR/FB rate to double) and more of the ones that don’t will elude outfielders’ gloves. With so many infield injuries, Gyorko is a great pickup to fill a middle or corner slot.

To pick him up, I’d drop: Pedro Alvarez, Chris Johnson, Kevin Youkilis

3 TO KEEP

Michael Saunders, Seattle Mariners OF

Since narrowly (and quietly) missing 20/20 last season (he went 21/19), Michael Saunders’ upward trend has continued. He’s cut down on his strikeouts and raised his walk rate. He’s hitting more line drives and more fly balls. Despite a chronically low BABIP, Saunders is hitting .283 with four homers and four steals.

He’s done it by being incredibly selective, swinging at just 12% of pitches outside the zone. His patience not only helps to maintain those improved plate discipline numbers, it also keeps him focused on pitches he can drive, which is borne out in his career high 22.2% HR/FB rate.

Even with the fences in, Safeco will probably suppress that number a bit, but I still like Saunders to top 25 home runs this season. He’ll never be a boon to your batting average, but his newfound patience will help Saunders hit better than .250 for the first time in his career.

Brett Lawrie, Toronto Blue Jays 3B

Through his first 79 plate appearances of this season, Brett Lawrie looks like a different hitter. He’s swinging significantly less often, yet striking out almost twice as much as last season. He walk rate is up a bit, but terrible BABIP luck has squelched his batting average and OBP. His line drive rate is down to 4.1%; Lawrie doesn’t have enough at bats to qualify for the batting title at the moment, but if he did, that rate would be the worst in baseball by nearly five percentage points.

Perhaps I should reword my opening sentence.

Through his first 79 plate appearances of this season, Brett Lawrie looks like a terrible hitter.

Honestly, there’s not much in his stat line that makes me feel good about this, but I’m staying the course with Lawrie. His 2013 has been so starkly different from his 2011/12, I can’t believe that he’s transformed into a replacement-level player this abruptly.

His power has remained consistent, and I expect the rest of his game to fall in line. Bench him if you can while he figures things out, but don’t let him go just yet.

I wouldn’t trade/drop him for: Kyle Seager, Michael Young, Aramis Ramirez

Starling Marte, Pittsburgh Pirates OF

On the surface, Starling Marte feels like the perfect sell-high candidate.

He was a trendy sleeper before the season and even now, he’s logged only slightly more than a half season’s worth of experience in the majors. He’s already hit 5 homers and swiped 10 bases; even the often conservative ZiPS projection system predicts that Marte will keep up his pace. It projects 10 homers and 22 steals the rest of the way, which coincidentally matches his totals through this first 318 plate appearances of his career.

15/30 doesn’t seem like a huge number, but so far this season, no player has produced both home runs and steals as efficiently as Marte. He is the only player in baseball to steal double-digit bases while posting a HR/FB rate better than 20%. I don’t expect either rate to decline much, if at all.

Marte has been BABIP lucky so far this season, but beyond that, don’t expect him to slow down.

I wouldn’t trade/drop him for: Nelson Cruz, Michael Cuddyer, Desmond Jennings

Comin verbally Hardison as if my name was Kadeem: @gerardowrites

Filed Under: 2013 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Tagged With: 3x3, Brandon Belt, Brett Anderson, Brett Lawrie, Cleveland Indians, Dee Gordon, Fantasy Baseball, fantasy baseball 2013, Jedd Gyorko, Justin Grimm, Justin Masterson, Kadeem Hardison, Los Angeles Dodgers, Oakland Athletics, Pittsburgh Pirates, San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants, Starling Marte, Texas Rangers, toronto blue jays, waiver wire

Fantasy Baseball Week 5 Waiver Wire: 3 to Cut, 3 to Catch, 3 to Keep

April 29, 2013 by Gerard Martin Leave a Comment

Photo Credit: Steve Paluch

Welcome as always to 3×3. This week, we’re cutting J.P. Arencibia, keeping Carlos Gomez, and catching Nolan Arenado and Jose Veras. I’m also introducing a new wrinkle, a list of add/drop/trade options as points of comparison for each player on the list.

3 TO CUT

J.P. Arencibia, Toronto Blue Jays C

If you drafted J.P. Arencibia, you knew exactly what you were getting: one of the best power hitters at his position, and not much else. So far, he’s delivered exactly that, hitting eight home runs through his first 96 plate appearances to go along with a sub-.250 batting average and a microscopic walk rate. It’s a best case scenario, but unfortunately, it’s not going to last.

Arencibia is one of the more aggressive (and perhaps misguided) hitters in baseball. So far this season, he’s one of only nine hitters to swing at more than half of the pitchers he sees, but whiff on more than 15% of his swings.

Since Arencibia broke into the majors in 2010, only five hitters have struck out in a greater percentage of their plate appearances. Yet somehow, the Jays catcher has managed to outdo himself, raising his strikeout rate to 38.5% this season, almost a full ten percentage points above his career average.

If he keeps this up, pitchers are just going to stop throwing him strikes. Of the 15 players who have whiffed on more than 15% of their swings this season, only five have seen more strikes than Arencibia.

He wasn’t likely to keep up his current 25% HR/FB rate anyway; seeing fewer strikes certainly won’t help.

Arencibia might end up with 30 homers by the time October rolls around, but now that you’ve locked down about a third of that production (in about a fifth of his season), it’s time to move on. Trade him to a power hungry owner, preferably one with with a struggling catcher.

I’d trade/drop him for: Salvador Perez, Miguel Montero, Victor Martinez

Wandy Rodriguez, Pittsburgh Pirates SP

Wandy Rodriguez has had a renaissance April during his first full season in Pittsburgh, winning two of his first four starts and posting a 1.66 ERA. His strikeouts are up from last year, and he’s walking fewer batters than ever before.

Unfortunately, it’s all a mirage.

Prior to a slight uptick this season, Rodriguez’ strikeout rate has been on a steady downward trend since 2008. His swinging strike rate has followed a similar pattern, only without the bounceback this Spring. His current 6.7% mark is a career low and ranks him behind pitch-to-contact all stars like Zach McAllister, Mark Buehrle, and Brett Myers.

Rodriguez’ zone percentage is also up significantly, which, along with his lowered walk rate, indicates he’s pitching to more contact. It’s obviously worked well so far, but once his BABIP (.200) and strand rate (86%) experience the unfavorable regression for which they are undoubtedly destined, his lack of swing-and-miss stuff is going to result in quite a few more runners crossing the plate.

You won’t be able to pull off a deal with Wandy as the centerpiece, but if a prospective trade partner needs a little bit of an extra push, throw him in. It’ll make your offer seem sweeter, even though you’ll likely be able to grab a starter of comparable value off the waiver wire as soon as the deal is done.

I’d trade/drop him for: Patrick Corbin, Bartolo Colon, Andrew Cashner

Chris Johnson, Atlanta Braves 3B

Chris Johnson has finally snagged an everyday gig in Atlanta, which makes it the perfect time to trade him.

As I type, Johnson is hitting .385, a full 105 points above his career average and good enough to lead the National League. Unsurprisingly, he’s been a bit lucky on balls in play, posting an outrageous .458 BABIP through his first 20 games. Even with a line drive rate hovering around 25%, that’s not going to continue.

Most of his underlying numbers are right in line with his career averages. You know, the same career averages that ZiPS uses to project Johnson for a .266 average and 12 home runs the rest of the way.

Johnson has always been a bit mismatched as the right-handed half of a platoon; the fact that he’s hit better against righties than lefties for his career actually bodes well for his prospects to hold the third base job long term. Still, there’s a good reason he wasn’t given the job outright prior to this season, and he’s never going to be a more desirable commodity than he is right now.

I’d trade/drop him for: Manny Machado, Kevin Youkilis, Nolan Arenado

3 TO CATCH

Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies 3B

Wow. Nolan Arenado’s 2013 line is stunning. His walk rate is 25%, his strikeout rate is 0%, and he’s been criminally unlucky, suffering from a .000 BABIP.

Oh, right, he’s only played one game in the majors.

Although Arenado just recently turned 22 years old, that fact is a little bit surprising. I mean, there were rumors that Arenado would break camp as Colorado’s starting third baseman last year.

Back then, he was Keith Law’s 26th ranked prospect. After his good, not great 2012 season in AA was overshadowed by questions about his maturity, Arenado dropped out of Law’s Top 100 and off the radar for most fantasy leagues.

Those lingering questions about Arenado’s makeup and commitment surely had a hand in delaying Arenado’s promotion, but after the .364/.392/.667 line he posted through his first 75 AAA plate appearances, the Rockies couldn’t deny him a chance in the big leagues any longer.

Arenado isn’t likely to be a superstar right away, but he’s a solid, well-rounded hitter. Those sorts of hitters can be quite helpful to a fantasy team, especially when they get to play half of their games at Coors Field. Most importantly, unlike last week’s most hyped call-up, Nationals prospect Anthony Rendon, Arenado has a great chance to hold an everyday job the rest of the way.

He should be added in all but the shallowest of formats.

To pick him up, I’d drop: Anthony Rendon, Mike Moustakas, Chris Johnson

Andrew Cashner, San Diego Padres SP

Cashner has been nothing short of overpowering so far this season, chucking 95 mile-per-hour heat on two thirds of his offerings and generating whiffs on over 12% of those fastballs.

12% doesn’t sount particularly impressive, that is until you consider that Clayton Kershaw has generated whiffs on just 8.3% of his fastballs and Justin Verlander has induced a swing-and-miss on only 7.9% of his.

After beginning the season in the bullpen, Cashner has been solid in two starts, striking out ten against only two walks in ten innings.

In any mixed league with fewer than 14 teams, Cashner should absolutely be owned. The possible upside with a pitcher like Cashner makes him absolutely worth the risk, especially knowing that there will always be a capable replacement available in those sorts of leagues. It’s perfectly fine to drop a more consistent performer to take a chance on Cashner’s upside.

To pick him up, I’d drop: Tim Hudson, Edwin Jackson, A.J. Griffin

Jose Veras, Houston Astros RP

Heading into this season, Jose Veras was unquestionably the least appreciated closer in baseball; a player unproven in the role and pitching for a team not expected to generate many wins, let alone save chances.

Veras and the Astros haven’t exactly exceeded expectations in the save category (he has two so far), but the ‘Stros closer has performed well enough to deserve ownership in more than the 37% of Yahoo! leagues in which he currently occupies a roster spot.

I understand that the Astros are a historically terrible team, but still, saves are saves and Veras’ hold on the Astros’ closing gig is completely unchallenged. He leads all Astros relievers in FIP (1.86) and K/9 (9.31). He’s cut his walk rate to a career low and boosted his swinging strike rate to a career high.

Veras is a very good relief pitcher with a kung fu grip on the closer job. Yeah, he happens to be on a crappy team, but that fact isn’t nearly as important as you think.

Last season, Chris Perez and Rafael Betancourt saved 39 and 31 games, respectively, for teams that won fewer than 70 games. In 2011, Heath Bell saved 43 of the Padres’ 71 wins.

Even if the Astros reach the 100 loss mark yet again, a full year in the closer’s gig will almost surely net somewhere between 20 and 30 saves for Veras. He should be owned in all formats.

To pick him up, I’d drop: Steve Cishek, Jason Motte, Carlos Marmol

3 TO KEEP

Carlos Gomez, Milwaukee Brewers OF

Since the second half of last season, Carlos Gomez has looked like a new man. Not only did he pull up his previously putrid batting average, he added power to his game for the first time in his career. In 274 second half plate appearances, Gomez hit .278/.321/.488 with 14 home runs and 26 steals. Simply doubling those numbers would yield an unrealistic, almost Trout-like projection, but so far this season, Gomez has proven that last fall wasn’t a fluke.

He hasn’t homered or swiped with the same frequency, but his underlying numbers support the notion that Gomez has turned a corner.

He’s never going to walk much, which will limit his value in OBP leagues, but Gomez has significantly cut back on his strikeout rate. He’ll still swing-and-miss more often than the average hitter, but the 18.3% strikeout rate he’s posted so far this year is actually a couple of points below the league average.

His HR/FB rate is exactly what it was last season (14.3%), but his overall batted ball profile has shifted to match better to his skillset. Previously a victim of Willie Mays Hayes Syndrome (when a speedy hitter hits too many fly balls), Gomez has cut his fly ball rate under 40% for the first time in three years, eschewing an elevated number of pop-ups for career-high line drive rate.

Gomez’ .390 BABIP seems primed for regression, but with this new batted ball profile and his blazing speed, I’d expect it to settle at least 30 points above his career .306 mark.

The steals and homers will come, and probably with a better batting average that you expected heading into the season. I’d pencil him in for 15/30, with an outside chance for 20/40, and a batting average around .275.

If you’re lucky enough to be in one of the 17% of Yahoo! leagues in which Gomez is still available, scoop him up now. If you’ve already got him, expect a solid season.

I wouldn’t trade him for: Shane Victorino, Coco Crisp, Jayson Werth

Casey Janssen, Toronto Blue Jays RP

Through his first eight innings of 2013, Casey Janssen has faced 27 batters. He’s struck out 11 and walked none. Of the 16 batters who have put the ball in play, nine have hit a ground ball and only three have reached base. He’s converted each of his six save chances and has allowed only one run in his eight outings.

Yes, it’s a pixel-sized sample, but good lord those are some impressive numbers.

The stats below the surface are just as impressive; Janssen is beating the career bests he set last year in both swinging strike rate and contact rate.

And by the way, he’s still not fully healthy after offseason shoulder surgery.

It’s probably misguided to make the “If he’s this good when he’s hurt, he’ll be unstoppable when he’s healthy” argument, but…

If he’s this good when he’s hurt, he’ll be unstoppable when he’s healthy!

Janssen is a legitimate top ten closer and should be treated as such.

I wouldn’t trade him for: Greg Holland, Fernando Rodney, J.J. Putz

Jean Segura, Milwaukee Brewers SS

A .400 BABIP has fueled Jean Segura’s sizzling start, but even as that fades back toward his career average, there’s plenty to be excited about.

Segura’s batted ball profile has shifted from last year; while the majority of his contact still comes on the ground, he’s hitting significantly more line drives and fly balls than last season. Nobody’s going to confuse Segura for Troy Tulowitzki, but it does appear that he’s making an effort to drive the ball, rather than just putting it in play.

Only 23, Segura’s still growing into his power, but he has shown the ability to hit double-digit homers in his minor league career. But you didn’t draft Segura for his power, you drafted him for his speed.

Segura’s seven swipes in 166 plate appearances last season put him on pace for about 25 with a full year’s worth of at bats. That’d be just fine for this year, but Segura has already tied his 2012 total, in just over half as many plate appearances. Part of this comes from his .386 OBP, a 71 point jump from last season, but even when his OBP settles in the .340 range, it’s clear he’s going to be aggressive enough on the basepaths to steal upwards of 30 bases.

I wouldn’t trade him for: Everth Cabrera, Alcides Escobar, Danny Espinosa

When I get my fill I’m chilly chill: @gerardowrites

Filed Under: 2013 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Tagged With: 3x3, Andrew Cashner, Atlanta Braves, Carlos Gomez, casey janssen, Chris Johnson, COLORADO ROCKIES, Fantasy Baseball, Houston Astros, J.P. Arencibia, Jean Segura, Jose Veras, Milwaukee Brewers, Nolan Arenado, Pittsburgh Pirates, San Diego Padres, toronto blue jays, waiver wire, Wandy Rodriguez

Fantasy Baseball Week 4 Waiver Wire: 3 to Cut, 3 to Catch, 3 to Keep

April 22, 2013 by Gerard Martin Leave a Comment

Photo Credit: Keith Allison

Welcome fantasy baseballers to the week 4 edition of 3×3, where I advise you to pick up Lorenzo Cain, tell Adam Dunn to kick rocks, and hold Austin Jackson and B.J. Upton so tight you’ll never let them go.

Let’s get it on.

3 TO CUT

Adam Dunn, Chicago White Sox 1B

After spending the better part of his career as the quintessential three true outcomes hitter, Adam Dunn has decided to focus a bit more. In an effort to narrow things down only two outcomes, he’s decided never to walk again.

Ok, I’m being a bit too dramatic, but there’s truth in the paragraph; Dave Cameron broke down Dunn’s metamorphosis last Sunday over at FanGraphs.

Dunn has made slightly more contact this year than he has in the past, but that improvement is completely outweighed by the fact that he’s swinging more often than ever before. For some reason, he’s decided to bury one of his greatest strengths (his batting eye) in order to play up perhaps his greatest weakness (his inability to make contact).

The worst part of all of this is: he’s making worse contact!

Dunn is hitting more balls on the ground that in the air for the first time in his career, and as one might expect for a man with the physique of a kodiak bear, he’s not legging out too many infield hits.

Dunn hasn’t had a single hit all season on a ground ball.

A player with Dunn’s reputation deserves at least a lap around your league as trade bait, but if nobody bites, feel free to drop him outright.

Brandon Crawford, San Francisco Giants SS

Heading into Sunday’s action, Brandon Crawford had a .217 ISO. That number ranked him 47th in baseball, tied with Mike Trout and Evan Longoria.

I generally agree with the maxim “numbers never lie,” however in this case, I believe that the numbers’ pants are almost surely engulfed in flames.

Prior to this season, Crawford had hit seven home runs in 209 career games. This year, he hit three in his first 16 games.

Crawford has probably evolved into a little bit better hitter than the Rey Ordonez-esque glove man he’s been through his first couple of big league seasons, but Troy Tulowitzki he is not. I wouldn’t be surprised if ends up besting his .242 career batting average by 20 points or so, but his current .354 BABIP isn’t sticking around.

I’d wager you’re likely to encounter quite a bit of skepticism on Crawford from any prospective trade partners, but injuries to stalwart shortstops like Derek Jeter, Jose Reyes, and Hanley Ramirez might just force somebody’s hand. If you can flip Crawford for a profit, make the move. Otherwise, ride out his hot streak, but don’t count on getting anything close to this level of production over the long term.

Alejandro De Aza, Chicago White Sox OF

Alejandro De Aza has emerged as something of a post-hype success story this season, popping four home runs in his first 16 games after hitting just nine all last year.

When I sat down to write this, I had De Aza penciled into a more positive category, but although the BABIP dragons have been unkind to him, his powerful start doesn’t necessarily portend future success.

Much like his teammate Dunn, De Aza’s plate discipline numbers have regressed significantly from last season. He’s striking out at a rate nearly 50% higher than his career norm, and he’s accepted only 3 free passes on the season.

When he does make contact, De Aza seems to have come down with a terrible case of Willie Mays Hayes Syndrome.

Fast runners like De Aza should focus on hitting the ball on a line or on the ground, rather than in the air. They say “speed kills,” but I’d argue it doesn’t do much of anything on a pop-up to the second baseman. The numbers bear it out; De Aza’s batting average is about 30 points higher on grounders.

After a career of hitting about 30% more grounders than fly balls, De Aza has reversed his tendencies this season, hitting 22 balls in the air to only 15 on the ground so far. His rise in fly balls has been accompanied by a career high 18% HR/FB rate, but considering that he’s never posted anything close to that in his major league career, I’m not buying.

I know it’s probably not easy to “sell high” on a guy hitting .243, but if there’s an owner in your league who believes De Aza is a 20/20 candidate, make a move soon.

3 TO CATCH

Patrick Corbin, Arizona Diamondbacks SP

Patrick Corbin was solid, if unspectacular, last season; a higher-than-average penchant for surrendering gopher balls stood out as his only glaring flaw. He didn’t draw much attention from the fantasy community, but based on his previous results, he didn’t really deserve it.

Corbin turned some heads with an impressive turn at Yankee Stadium last week, but even after that outing, he’s still available in 80% of Yahoo! leagues.

I’ll admit that Corbin has been a bit lucky so far (negative regression is definitely on the way for his BABIP and strand rate), but the thing that makes me most excited about him may not have really taken hold yet.

Since last season, Corbin has shown improved velocity on all of his pitches, including adding nearly a full mile per hour to his fastball. It doesn’t sound like a ton, but Corbin is now hovering around 92 mph with his average fastball.

The list of left-handed starters who can consistently throw 92 isn’t long, but it’s distinguished.

Along with his improving fastball, Corbin features a slider that generates whiffs more than 20% of the time against hitters from both sides of the plate.

Corbin’s walks are up a bit and his strikeouts are slightly down from last year. As he learns to harness his improving arsenal, I expect both of those numbers to trend in more positive directions, and I expect Corbin to be a well-rounded asset to pitching staffs in just about all formats.

Carlos Villanueva, Chicago Cubs SP

Carlos Villanueva has always been a pretty good pitcher with one significant flaw: he hands out home runs with an unsettling frequency. A move to Wrigley Field wouldn’t seem to be a recipe for success for this sort of pitcher, but Villanueva has flourished through his first few starts as a Chicago Cub, averaging seven innings per start and allowing a total of just three earned runs.

Villanueva has had success by turning himself into a champion wormburner, generating 1.69 grounders for every fly ball. That number is a career high and a huge improvement over his career average of 1.34. The home runs will always be a problem, but an above average HR/FB is much less painful when applied to fewer fly balls overall.

He’s made this change by adding a two-seam fastball to his arsenal, a pitch he’s throwing about one fifth of the time. Predictably, his new offering is a leading contributor to his rising groundball rate; his sinker has induced grounders nearly 70% of the time it’s put in play, according to Brooks Baseball.

Some of Villanueva’s peripheral numbers don’t substantiate this sort of dominant stat line. He’s benefitted from a .189 BABIP and 100% strand rate, neither of which are like to stick around much longer. His strikeouts are down a bit, but he’s limited walks even more.

Adding the sinker has changed his approach, and as such, his prospective fantasy owners have to understand that they’re getting a different version of Carlos Villanueva. He won’t get you quite the same number of strikeouts that he has in the past, but if he’s able to maintain his adjusted approach, he’ll be a cheap source of ERA and WHIP.

Lorenzo Cain, Kansas City Royals OF

If Alejandro De Aza is wasting his speed, Lorenzo Cain is squeezing every drop of value out of his quicks. He won’t maintain his current .455 BABIP much longer, but that number isn’t just a result of good luck, it’s a product of a very smart approach.

Check out Cain’s career BABIP splits:

Grounders: .337

Fly Balls: .149

Line Drives: .685

Knowing that, his current BABIP isn’t so surprising, at least not after I tell you that only ten players have hit fewer fly balls than Cain this season, and that over 80% of Cain’s batted balls have been line drives or grounders.

Cain has actually been pretty successful when he’s hit the ball in the air this season, but I’d attribute much of that success to the fact that he’s only trying to elevate balls he knows he can drive.

Cain has some sneaky power and enough speed to swipe 30, now that he’s able to get himself on base consistently. If he’s still on your waiver wire, scoop him up now.

3 TO KEEP

Austin Jackson, Detroit Tigers OF

For me, Austin Jackson has always fallen into the “better in real life than fantasy” category. He’s never been known as a player with overwhelming power or speed, and much of his real life value is derived from the Gold Glove-caliber defense he plays in centerfield.

I think it’s time I gave Jackson the credit he deserves.

Since the beginning of last season, he has undergone a fascinating and impressive transition, turning himself from a player whose value would always be limited by a weakness for the whiff to one of the better contact hitters in baseball.

Jackson has bumped his contact rate to better than 85% this season and insodoing has put himself on pace to hit .300 for the second year in a row.

Now that Jackson has cemented himself as an excellent on-base guy, he has a chance to lead the league in runs with Torii Hunter, Miguel Cabrera, and Prince Fielder following him in the Detroit lineup. He’s already scored a league-leading 19 runs this season after crossing the plate 103 times last year.

Jackson doesn’t run as often as he could, and he may not ever hit more than 21 or 22 home runs, but he is remarkably consistent and deserves to be counted among the top 12 outfielders in fantasy baseball.

B.J. Upton, Atlanta Braves OF

It’s been a rough road for Bossman Jr. this season. His strikeout rate is threatening to crack 30% and his batting average can’t seem to get off the interstate (it’s currently sitting at .167). We all know that you don’t draft B.J. Upton to help your batting average, but posting anything below .200 is downright rude.

Of course, his .214 BABIP will regress toward his .320 career average, but whether Upton is able to cut back on his 35% infield fly ball rate will determine just how far that regression goes.

Upton has never had an IFFB rate even close to his current level; I’m betting that this is just a bit of over-aggression. When you step back and this about it, it makes perfect sense.

B.J. signed a big free agent deal to much fanfare in Atlanta, but then had a bit of his thunder stolen when baby bro Justin was also acquired by the Braves. We were all blessed with this little bit of genius, but B.J. was bumped a bit out of the spotlight.

Now that Justin Upton is swatting April homers at a rate not seen since Chris Shelton’s magical Spring of 2006, it’s not surprising that B.J. is pressing a bit.

As the elder Upton starts to settle into a routine with the Braves, his batted ball profile should trend back toward his established norm and he’ll be the 20/40 threat we all expected him to be.

J.J. Hardy, Baltimore Orioles SS

At first, I thought J.J. Hardy was just a bit unlucky, but with a BABIP of just .189, you’ve got to be doing something wrong, right? This can’t just be a bout of historically bad luck, right?

Well, the answer is kind of complicated.

First off, yes, some of this is just Hardy’s fault. He hits a ton of infield fly balls, which generally isn’t helpful for driving up one’s BABIP. His career .273 BABIP is well below league average, and we know he’s never going to challenge for a batting title.

/clears throat/ HOWEVUH…

Hardy has been ridiculously unlucky on ground balls. Hardy’s not a burner, but can get down the line relatively quickly. Yet somehow, he’s only been able to leg out a hit on one of the 26 grounders he’s hit this season, good for a result that reads more like a bingo card than a batting average: .036

Aside from his batting average, Hardy has been fine. His walks are up, his strikeouts are just about flat, and he’s hitting home runs at a rate just a tick higher than his career average.

With all of the previously mentioned injuries at shortstop, now is not the time for a quick hook. Stay the course with Hardy, or pick him up if you can.

Here’s a funky introduction of how nice I am: @gerardowrites

Filed Under: 2013 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Tagged With: 2013 fantasy baseball, 3x3, Adam Dunn, Alejandro De Aza, Arizona Diamondbacks, Atlanta Braves, Austin Jackson, B.J. Upton, Baltimore Orioles, Brandon Crawford, Carlos Villanueva, chicago cubs, Chicago White Sox, Detroit Tigers, Fantasy Baseball, J.J. Hardy, Kansas City Royals, Lorenzo Cain, Patrick Corbin, San Francisco Giants, waiver wire

Fantasy Baseball Week 3 Waiver Wire: 3 to Cut, 3 to Catch, 3 to Keep

April 15, 2013 by Gerard Martin 3 Comments

Source: Abelimages/Getty Images North America

Welcome back to 3×3, where this week, I tell you why you should trade Josh Hamilton and Fernando Rodney, pick up Brandon Moss, and join hands in a prayer for Emilio Bonifacio.

3 TO CUT

Josh Hamilton, Los Angeles Angels OF

Heading into Sunday’s action, Josh Hamilton had the 22nd-worst contact rate (69.8%) and the third-highest swing rate (59.9%) in baseball. With his YOLO approach to every at bat, it’s not surprising that his 17.9% swinging strike rate and 30% strikeout rate rank among the worst in MLB.

But really, none of this should be surprising.

Hamilton has never had good, or even average plate discipline, he’s always relied on elite raw power and an uncanny ability to square the ball up when he does make contact. For his career, Hamilton has slugged .546 and popped up on only 3.3% of his batted balls, both of which rank among the best in baseball during that time. [Read more...]

Filed Under: 2013 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Tagged With: 3x3, Atlanta Braves, boston red sox, Brandon Moss, Bud Norris, Emilio Bonifacio, Fantasy Baseball, Fernando Rodney, Houston Astros, joel hanrahan, Josh Hamilton, Justin Maxwell, Los Angeles Angels, mike minor, Oakland Athletics, St. Louis Cardinals, Tampa Bay Rays, toronto blue jays, trevor rosenthal, waiver wire

Fantasy Baseball Week 2 Waiver Wire: 3 to Cut, 3 to Catch, 3 to Keep

April 8, 2013 by Gerard Martin Leave a Comment

Some rights reserved by Keith Allison

3×3 is back, and this time we’ve got something even better than Spring Training stats: opening week stats!

One quick note: Since I’m only discussing nine players per week, I’m going to try as much as possible not to repeat myself. Please check out last week’s list for your Jackie Bradley, Jr. fix.

3 TO KEEP

Chris Davis, Baltimore Orioles 1B/OF

My first instinct when I started writing this was to put Chris Davis in “3 to Cut.” He seemed like an ideal early season trade candidate, coming off a home run binge that landed him in the first segment of SportsCenter for a week, but certainly couldn’t continue much past that.

I assumed that Davis was what he’s always been, but then I noticed his strikeout rate.

As with all of the players on this list, we’re dealing with a preposterously small sample size, but Davis has only struck out twice in his first 22 plate appearances. On top of that, he’s cut his swinging strike rate to 5.4%, less than a third of his career average.

Davis obviously isn’t going to keep up this pace in either home runs or strikeouts, but if he can put a significant dent in his strikeout rate, his .337 BABIP proves he’ll maintain a high batting average as he makes more contact. A better batting average brings more chances to score runs and a greater conversion of RBI opportunities, turning Davis from a single-category provider to an all-around stud.

Watch his K rate closely, but he’s absolutely worth holding on to for now.

R.A. Dickey, Toronto Blue Jays SP

If you’re going to own R.A. Dickey, you need to understand that weeks like this are going to happen. Every once in a while, the knuckleball isn’t going to go exactly where he wants it to, and when that happens, he’s going to get crushed. Unfortunately, these sorts of things aren’t easy to predict; you just have to bite the bullet and trust that his excellent overall performance will smooth out any bumps in the road.

Dickey’s elevated walk rate is troubling, but outside of that, I’d chalk his bad start up mostly to bad luck. He’s allowed a BABIP 75 points higher than his career average and a HR/FB rate that more than doubles his average from the past two seasons.

Watch his next few starts closely; as long as he’s able to keep the ball in the zone, he should be fine the rest of the way.

Zack Greinke, Los Angeles Dodgers SP

Zack Greinke probably wasn’t quite as good in his first start as his numbers would suggest, but it remains a great sign from a pitcher who battled elbow soreness through the Spring. He threw 92 pitches against the Pirates, hitting the strike zone and missing bats with regularity.

We knew coming into the season that everything was lined up for Greinke to succeed in LA, but for a myriad of reasons throughout his career, he’s always been one of the toughest pitchers in baseball to project.

Greinke’s still building up his fastball velocity, but with his next three turns coming up against the Padres (twice) and the Mets, he’ll be able to work things out while still delivering quality results.

3 TO CUT

Michael Morse, Seattle Mariners OF

Michael Morse has been mashing in the Pacific Northwest, crushing an AL-leading 5 home runs in the season’s first week. It’s an impressive feat, but not something completely out of the ordinary for a guy we all knew already had plenty of pop in his bat. However, his early season stat line shows an all-or-nothing approach that doesn’t bode well for his fantasy owners over the long term.

Morse hasn’t been running much this season. When he isn’t trotting around the bases, he’s heading back to the dugout with nothing to show for his trouble. His strikeout rate has jumped to 32.3%, a full ten times greater than his 3.2% walk rate.

If Morse isn’t hitting home runs, he’s not getting on base.

Nearly half of the balls Morse puts in play are fly balls, and while over half half of those have found their way over the fence so far, the overall trend isn’t necessarily a favorable one. Morse’s HR/FB rate will regress significantly, but there’s no guarantee that his fly ball rate will follow suit. An elevated fly ball rate means a lower BABIP, bad news for a guy whose OBP relies completely on batting average.

Morse will provide power no matter what, but if his batting average slips down around .250 (where it was back in 2009), he won’t provide much else. Trade him now to a power-needy owner.

Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants SP

After one start this season, Tim Lincecum’s xFIP (8.09) is higher than his K/9 (7.20).

Yikes.

While Lincecum didn’t allow an earned run in his first outing, his peripheral results continue to confirm what his velocity has been shouting for the since the start of last season: Lincecum has lost it.

Without his power fastball, he struggles to induce swings and misses with his changeup and breaking ball. Hitters don’t chase when his misses the strike zone, that turns strikeouts into walks and outs into baserunners.

If you can get anything of value for Lincecum do it now.

Mike Fiers, Milwaukee Brewers SP

Mike Fiers was bad in the Spring, and things haven’t gotten much better since his trip North to Milwaukee. Without overpowering stuff to fall back on, Fiers was lit up as he struggled to find a feel for the strike zone in his first start against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Fiers succeeded last season by living on the edge of the strike zone. He maintained a walk rate of only 6.7% while throwing only 48% of his pitches in the zone.

He kept his walk rate down in his first start, but did it by throwing nearly 70% of his pitches over the plate. Hitters weren’t biting on Fiers’ typically enticing offerings just off the edges of the plate, forcing Fiers to challenge them with his underpowering arsenal and teeing off when he did.

Unless you’re in a deep NL-only league, there’s likely a better option than Fiers available on your waiver wire.

3 TO CATCH

Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers RP

Jose Valv…

I can’t do this. I feel dirty. Just pick him up and try not to hate yourself too much.

Chris Heisey, Cincinnati Reds OF

Opening Day seems like ages ago, but I can’t overlook how Ryan Ludwick’s separated shoulder shoved Chris Heisey into the Cincinnati Reds’ starting lineup.

Heisey was probably already owned in most NL-only leagues, but I believe he has value in mixed leagues as well.

He’s had some rough BABIP luck this first week, but past performance shows a nice combination of power and speed. Even without Ludwick, the Reds lineup is fantastic; Heisey will have plenty of opportunities to score and drive in runs.

In leagues that play five outfielders, Heisey is a great add. If he’s able to rack up 500 plate appearances this season, 15/15 is absolutely within his reach.

Kevin Youkilis, New York Yankees 1B/3B

Kevin Youkilis looks rejuvenated since joining the Yankees; I personally saw him stinging the ball around Comerica Park this past weekend, a not-so-small accomplishment considering he faced Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander on back-to-back days.

Youk’s GB/FB rate had been trending in the wrong direction of the past two seasons, but so far this year, he’s rebounded to hit almost 60% of balls in play for fly balls of line drives.

He doesn’t have the quite the same power he once did, and the Yankee lineup will limit his output in runs and RBI (hey, there’s a fun sentence to type), but Youkilis will still get on base and still take advantage of Yankee Stadium’s short porch for a few cheap home runs.

Most importantly, he looks healthy.

If you’ve got Brett Lawrie or Aramis Ramirez stranded on your DL, Youkilis is a great (and probably relatively cheap) trade target.

Check me out thang: @gerardowrites

Filed Under: 2013 Fantasy Baseball Tagged With: 2013 fantasy baseball, 3x3, chris davis, Chris Heisey, Fantasy Baseball, jose valverde, Kevin Youkilis, Michael Morse, mike fiers, R.A. Dickey, Tim Lincecum, waiver wire, zack greinke

Fantasy Baseball Week 1 Waiver Wire: 3 to Cut, 3 to Catch, 3 to Keep

April 1, 2013 by Gerard Martin Leave a Comment

Welcome to fantasy baseball’s answer to “Marry, Bop, Kill” – “3 to Cut, 3 to Catch, 3 to Keep”.

Each week, I’ll recommend three players to cut, whether by trade or drop, three players to catch, whether by waivers or the trade market, and three players to keep, despite any upcoming turbulence.

Let’s get it on.

3 TO CUT

Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers OF

Ok, hear me out.

Rumors abound that Ryan Braun is “Public Enemy No. 1” for Major League Baseball’s steroid investigations. He’s already tested positive once for PEDs and now has been mentioned in additional PED-related reports.

I don’t think Braun will be suspended, but it’d be silly to ignore the fact that there’s a much higher than average chance that he’s going to miss some time this season. Yet somehow, fantasy owners seem content to evaluate Braun with no consideration to his outlaw status.

If Braun had incurred a slow-healing injury, say for instance, a badly sprained knee, during Spring Training, but recovered to return to the Opening Day roster, it’d be completely fair for prospective fantasy owners to devalue him just a bit, since we have hard data indicating that he’s more likely to miss significant playing than his contemporaries (Trout, Cabrera, et. al.). He’d drop a bit down draft boards and I’d probably write about how he’s worth a shot at the fourth pick, given the incredible upside potential if he does stay healthy.

Makes sense, right?

Now, explain to me how Braun’s current suspension situation is any different.

I’m not saying he’s any worse of a player. I’m not saying that he ever took or was significantly aided by PEDs. All I’m saying is that now that we know that Braun’s risk of suspension is significantly higher than it would be otherwise, shouldn’t that impact his fantasy value?

If I’ve got Braun, I’m not in a huge hurry to move him, but if I can get a good deal, now’s the time to pull the trigger.

Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves SP

Julio Teheran established a terrific minor league pedigree and has backed that up with arguably the best Spring Training line of any pitcher in baseball, fanning 35 batters and giving up just seven hits in 26 Spring innings.

Consequently, he rocketed up draft boards, surpassing former top prospects with more proven MLB credentials like Lance Lynn, Matt Harrison, and Jeremy Hellickson.

It seems like everything’s looking up, until you scroll down to see that Teheran’s career K/9 in MLB is the same as his career ERA: 5.19.

Going into this season, there are two ways to look at Teheran. He’s either a great prospect who happened to have a bad year in 2012, or he’s a formerly great prospect who’s lost the spark that propelled him to the top of the Atlanta Braves system and just so happened to excel against a bunch of crappy hitters for a few weeks in Florida.

I happen to lean slightly toward the latter, but regardless of my individual opinion, this is an undeniable case of the hype outweighing the predictable results. If you can get a a good value from Julio Teheran, move him now.

Sure, there’s a chance he’ll turn into an ace and burn you, but the much more likely outcome is that he’s a league average starter who just costs too much.

Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies RP

It really pains me to put him on this list, but Roy Halladay just isn’t right.

During Spring Training in 2011 and 2012, he pitched 43.2 innings, struck out 43 and walked only nine. In 16.1 innings so far this Spring, Halladay has fanned 16, but walked nine, not to mention the 21 hits he’s surrendered in just six starts.

I’m typically not one to pay too much attention to Spring stats, but for Halladay, I must grudgingly make an exception. Especially when he says stuff like this:

“I got my wake-up call a long time ago. It’s always a battle of trying to stay ahead of the curve.”

Sounds great Doc!

3 TO CATCH

Emilio Bonifacio, Toronto Blue Jays 2B/OF

Emilio Bonifacio and Maicer Izturis were locked in a dogfight for the starting second base gig in Toronto until Brett Lawrie did us all a favor and landed himself on the 15-day DL. Bonifacio probably owes Lawrie’s ribs a drink.

Now Izurtis slides over to start a 3B and Bonifacio has 2B all to himself, a wonderful development for any fantasy owner in need of some speed.

Bonifacio is more than just your typical “cheap speed”; if he’s able to finagle his way to 600 plate appearances, he’s got a chance to lead the American League in stolen bases.

As a point of comparison, Michael “Expensive Speed” Bourn swiped .06 bases per plate appearance last season. Mike Trout stole .08 bases per plate appearances during his dreamy 2012.

Emilio Bonifacio stole .11 bases per plate appearance last year, snatching 30 bags in only 274 plate appearances. Given the same amount of plate appearances as Bourn logged in 2012, that’d total up to 77 steals in a single season, a number that’s been topped exactly once since the glory days of Rickey Henderson, Tim Raines, and Vince Coleman.

I’m not saying that Bonifacio is going to challenge 80 steals this season, but you won’t often find a guaranteed 40 steal player available in nearly half of Yahoo! leagues for long. Grab him now.

Al Alburquerque, Detroit Tigers RP

The Detroit Tigers bullpen is a mess.

Bruce Rondon can’t find the strike zone, nobody seems to trust Joaquin Benoit, and Phil Coke is Phil Coke. Jim Leyland has said he “might call on anybody,” but he’s an old school guy who likes to have clear roles in his bullpen. He’ll call on anybody for now, but if a Tigers reliever separates himself, that man has a great chance to hold the job long term.

In cases like this, I’ll take the guy with the best stuff. In this case, that guy is Al Alburquerque.

You might remember Alburquerque from that time he challenged the all-time K/9 record, fanning a shade under 14 batters per nine innings during his 2011 debut. One Tommy John surgery later, Alburquerque returned last season to post a 0.68 ERA and punch out 35% of the batters he faced.

He seems to have his game on point heading into this season, fanning 18 in 13 Spring innings.

I can’t promise he’ll get the first save chance for Detroit, but I do think he’s the best value for your fantasy team over the long term.

Mitchell Boggs, St. Louis Cardinals RP

Jason Motte is a terrific pitcher, but in a world where job title outweighs skill set and every outing is a small sample, I’m not counting on Mitchell Boggs kindly keeping his chair warm for him while he’s gone. On top of that, “forearm tightness” isn’t exactly a comforting phrase to hear associated with a pitcher.

Motte fanned more and walked less than Boggs last season, but Boggs’ penchant for limiting offensive damage lends itself well to the closer gig; he allowed only .61 HR/9 last season and limited the opposition to one or fewer hits in 38 of his final 41 appearances.

Mike Matheny is a very smart guy, the kind of smart guy who might realize that it’s silly to confine his best high leverage reliever to the ninth inning just so a few beat writers can call him “closer”. He’s exactly the kind of smart guy who might use this injury to his advantage, letting Boggs settle in to the closer role and sliding Motte into a “fireman” role when he returns.

Of course, with all that in mind, there’s no guarantee that Boggs will register any more than the two or three saves he might pick up in the week before Motte comes back. Still, even that is worth enough to warrant a pickup in just about any format.

3 TO KEEP

Jackie Bradley, Jr., Boston Red Sox OF

Jackie Bradley’s Spring stat line is outrageous (.419/.507/.613), but that’s not why he’s on this list. Anybody who’s owned Jake Fox or Chris Shelton can tell you that Spring stats often do more harm than good when it comes to choosing fantasy teams.

Bradley finds his way into the “Keep” category because he has one valuable, consistent, and completely translatable skill: plate discipline.

In high-A last season, Bradley walked more often than he struck out. In AA, regressed a bit, but still posted 35 walks against just 49 strikeouts. Against (mostly) big league pitching this Spring, he’s walked ten times and struck out ten times.

The void created by David Ortiz’ injury won’t last forever, but even when he’s back, all Bradley has to do is beat out Jonny Gomes, a man whose plate discipline and defense leave quite a bit to be desired.

He may not hit for power or average right away, but Bradley is going to get on base. With a full season’s worth of plate appearances, Bradley will make a strong run at 15/15, along with the 90 or so runs commensurate with having a .350+ OBP in a well-rounded lineup.

Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers RP

Remember that thing about Al Alburquerque challenging the all-time K/9 record? Kenley Jansen was even better that year, striking out 44% of the batters he faced, good for a K/9 of 16.1. Just for some perspective, that’s more than double the 6.71 rate that Brandon League has posted over his MLB career.

League isn’t a bad pitcher, he’s just not nearly as talented as Jansen. He’s bound to blow a couple of saves here or there, and as soon as he slips up twice in a week, Don Mattingly will be hounded by an army of Bill Plaschkes calling for him to slot his portly fireballer into the closer role and make all of the Dodgers’ problems go away.

On a team in pursuit of short-term success, led by a manager without the security of a long-term contract, the words of those Bill Plaschkes tend to have a greater impact than we’d all care to admit.

Be patient with Jansen, it’s probably going to happen.

Michael Pineda, New York Yankees SP

I can’t agree with Hal Steinbrenner’s assertion that he’d still make the Pineda-for-Montero deal, knowing what he knows now, however, I’d absolutely snatch up Pineda if I’ve got an open DL slot.

He probably won’t be back until June, but he’s already throwing in the bullpen, which makes me think there won’t be a huge adjustment period. He won’t be the ace that Steinbrenner and the Yankees thought they were getting last winter, but a waiver-wire player who’s struck out more than a batter per inning at every level above A-ball deserves your attention.

Grab and stash Pineda, and monitor his progress during rehab. If he’s able to get his velocity back into the 90’s, he’ll be a great source of strikeouts and WHIP during the second half of the year.

Follow me on Twitter @gerardowrites

Filed Under: 2013 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Tagged With: 3x3, Al Alburquerque, Emilio Bonifacio, jackie bradley jr, Julio Teheran, Kenley Jansen, Michael Pineda, Mitchell Boggs, roy halladay, Ryan Braun

Fantasy Baseball: Fueling the Hype Machine for Paul Goldschmidt

February 27, 2013 by Gerard Martin Leave a Comment

Image credit: AZCoyote85044

Paul Goldschmidt belongs in the same draft conversation as Albert Pujols, Joey Votto and Prince Fielder. Hell, in a vacuum, I’d take him ahead of Fielder without a moment’s hesitation.

Our own Albert Lang wrote a cautionary piece last week (which I encourage you to check out), warning about the dangers of the unbridled optimism driving Paul Goldschmidt up the ADP charts.

For me, we’re not quite optimistic enough yet; Goldschmidt’s mid-20s ADP is at least five spots too low.

My view is partly due to my undying love for Goldy’s skill set (we’ll get to that later), but just as much, it’s a casualty of my nagging doubt about the future of the first base position.

In real baseball terms, the league’s first basemen are in the beginnings of a much-needed physical retooling. Teams have smartly realized that the lumbering first sackers who dominated my youth aren’t worth the Mitchell Report paper their names were printed on. In fantasy, one-dimensional players don’t have much room for error. A power-only guy is great when he hits 50 home runs, but if that number dips to 35, he’s a wasted draft pick. We haven’t seen a high level of power-only production from first base over the last few seasons; no first baseman has cracked the 50 homer mark since Prince Fielder swatted exactly 50 bombs all the way back in 2007.

The league is becoming less McGwire, more Mientkiewicz.

The trend starts before players even enter the league. Teams are prioritizing all-around physical tools and positional flexibility in the amateur draft, which doesn’t bode well for players whose high school or college teams stuck them at first base because they couldn’t fit anywhere else.

The effect redoubles once these draftees enter their club’s minor league system. Teams are smart enough to know that a power-hitting outfielder or third baseman will generate more value for them than the same hitter at first base; anybody who can tighten past the first hole on his uniform belt is going to get a shot to play a more premium position. Every burly lefty is going to get a shot to shag balls in left field, and every lanky kid with any semblance of an arm will get some run at the hot corner.

They won’t all stick, but each one that does drains the talent pool a little bit more.

Sure, there are still elite hitting prospects that end up at first base, but with a shallower pool of options, every miss hurts the position’s overall depth even more. (Thanks for that, Justin Smoak.)

We’re left with a cream of a few established stars and uber-prospects floating on top of a buttery mix of mediocre platooners, disappointing youngsters, and the few defensive disasters who just couldn’t fit anywhere else.

The established stars: Pujols, Votto, Fielder, et al. will deliver top-shelf production, but it’ll come at a top-shelf price.

The rising prospects, however, have the capability to change the way we judge the position. Our friend Paul Goldschmidt, in particular, can bring something to the table that we’ve rarely seen before from a first baseman.

He stole 18 bases last season.

Sure, it’s not an astronomical number on its own, but first basemen with that kind of speed just don’t exist. In the last ten seasons, exactly two first basemen (Derrek Lee in 2003 and Lance Berkman in 2008) have stolen as many bases as Paul Goldschmidt swiped last year.

Goldschmidt did it while also hitting 20 home runs. It’s not quite as impressive as the seasons that Lee and Berkman put up (more on that later), but it’s certainly a good start for his first full season in the big leagues.

I’m optimistic about Goldschmidt, but I’m not crazy. Based on recent history, it’s unlikely that he’ll steal 18 bases in 2013. Frankly, I’d put about a 25% chance on Goldschmidt duplicating or bettering his output from last season. However, that 25% chance is five times the likelihood I’d put on any other first baseman (with the possible exception of Eric Hosmer) and ten times the likelihood I’d put on any first or second round first baseman reaching that stolen base total.

Given that the average first basemen stole about three bases last season, that’s a possible advantage of 15 stolen bases the rest of your team now doesn’t have to make up at another position. It doesn’t seem like a lot, but 15 steals not only gives you the flexibility to eschew speed-only guys late in your draft, it might well swing two or three roto points in that category.

Assuming that Goldschmidt can provide production comparable to the other elite first basemen across the rest of the 5×5 categories, just the chance at those 15+ steals should be enough to vault him near the front of the second round. Based on his early returns, I’d say that’s a fair assumption to make.

After clearing rookie ball, Goldschmidt hit at least 30 home runs in both of his full minor league seasons. Goldschmidt’s home run power regressed a bit last season after posting a HR/FB rate better than 20% in his rookie year, but with an unassailable minor league track record and a home ballpark that profiles as one of the friendliest in baseball (sixth-friendlies for home runs according to ESPN’s 2012 park factors), I can confidently count on Goldschmidt to produce 26-32 home runs next season.

Considering that only four first basemen hit more than 32 home runs last season, I’d say that level of power is more than acceptable.

Over the past three seasons, Goldschmidt has scored .144 runs per plate appearance, the exact same number as Joey Votto. His .141 RBI per PA trails the .150-.160 marks of most elite first basemen, but if the strikeout rate decline that began in 2012 continues, the RBI will come for Goldschmidt. Runs and RBI are often a result of lineup strength more than talent, and as puzzling as Arizona’s offseason was for the team’s long term outlook, the Snakes lineup will likely be a bit better this year than they were in 2012.

His greatest supposed weak spot is batting average; Goldschmidt hit .285 last season, but it was backed up by a .340 BABIP and a reputation for being a free swinger.

An elevated BABIP often portends a decline in batting average in following seaons, but in Goldschmidt’s unique case, it may actually be the opposite.

Sure, it’s a bit unexpected to see a 245-pounder to post a BABIP in the top 25 in baseball, but it’s not a fluke. Goldschmidt has never posted a BABIP lower than .323 at any level, and his rising line drive rate, which jumped two percentage points to nearly 24%, proves that he’s making solid contact consistently.

When you’re smoking roughly half of those line drives in Chase Field, where the Diamondbacks (including pitchers) have posted a .314 BABIP as a team since 2008, maintaining a BABIP around .340 doesn’t seem so unlikely.

I can’t deny that Goldschmidt strikes out a bit more than I’d prefer, but he began to solve that problem in 2012…

By swinging more often.

Goldschmidt clearly made an adjustment last season, cutting his swinging strike rate by two full percentage points in 2012 and boosting his contact rate from 70.7 to 77.2. Paradoxically, he did it by swinging more often, about 1.5 percentage points higher than his rookie season.

Let’s recap: He’s swinging more often, he’s making more contact, and he’s making better contact. If anything, I’d lean in favor of a batting average better than .285 in 2013, rather than the rumored regression.

Before we make a projection on Mr. Goldschmidt, let’s take a look back that those two previous 18+ steal seasons from first basemen:

2003 Derrek Lee: .271 batting average, 31 home runs, 21 steals, 91 runs, 92 RBI

2008 Lance Berkman: .312/29/18/114/106

Those are the type of seasons that can win you a league. Goldschmidt has fewer MLB seasons under his belt than either Lee or Berkman at the time of their historic dual-threat campaigns, so let’s dial back a bit from there. Still, .291/30/13/99/101 seems a very attainable projection for Paul Goldschmidt.

Goldschmidt is young, and he’s a risk, but he’s not a lottery ticket. Think of him as more like drawing two pair to a full house in poker. He’ll be useful no matter what, but if the cards happen to fall in your favor, you’ll be just about unbeatable.

Follow Gerard on Twitter @gerardowrites.

Filed Under: 2013 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Tagged With: Fantasy Baseball, Hype Machine, Paul Goldschmidt

What the Justin Upton Trade Can Teach Us About Fantasy Baseball Strategy

January 30, 2013 by Gerard Martin Leave a Comment

Photo Credit: vail2012

While the Arizona Diamondbacks’ trade of Justin Upton to the Atlanta Braves for Martin Prado and a grab bag of prospects won’t have a ton of fantasy impact for the players involved, it can teach us a worthwhile lesson about fantasy baseball strategy.

The lesson: In baseball, there’s no such thing as absolute value.

ESPN’s Keith Law trashed Arizona GM Kevin Towers for getting less than fair market value for his budding superstar. That’s just one man’s opinion, your personal evaluation of Randall Delgado, Nick Ahmed and the like may vary, but it’s hard to argue with Law’s general diagnosis. Towers overplayed his hand.

Every team in MLB knew that he wanted to move Upton. On its own, that’s not necessarily a bad thing. The real mistake that Towers made was to prepare for Upton’s departure before he even left.

Last season, the Diamondbacks had arguably the deepest outfield in baseball. The combination of Upton, Chris Young, and Jason Kubel made Gerardo Parra the best fourth outfielder in the league, a luxury that came in handy when Young went down with a shoulder injury. Early in this offseason, the D’Backs smartly traded from a position of strength, moving Young to make room for rising prospect Adam Eaton. Once again, Towers had four starting-caliber outfielders, with Parra as an insurance policy.

Then, the wheels came off.

Towers inexplicably signed Cody Ross, giving him five outfielders that deserve regular playing time.

By adding Ross, Towers painted himself into a corner. Somebody had to go; heading into the season with a plan to bench two starting-caliber outfielders every day would be a disaster. Upton and Kubel emerged as the two most likely trade candidates, and after an offseason of owning the front page of MLBTradeRumors, Towers finally pulled the trigger on the Upton-Prado deal.

So what does this all have to do with fantasy baseball?

When you’re drafting a team, don’t be like Kevin Towers. Don’t ever make the mistake of thinking that a draft asset has the same value in every situation. A particular player’s value can vary greatly based on how the team is built around him.

In fantasy baseball, there’s no such thing as absolute value.

For instance, drafting high-value players in scarce positions is smart, but don’t overdo it.

Sure, Jose Reyes dropping to the fifth round is enticing, but if you already picked Troy Tulowitzki in the third, Reyes isn’t worth your pick here. When so much of his value comes from his advantage over the average player at his position, stashing him in a UTIL slot is just a waste. Even if you’re able to trade him down the line, there’s no guarantee that you’ll recover the value wasted for every day he spent on your roster.

The same goes for drafting to fill specific stat categories.

If you’ve spent most of your auction budget on Ryan Braun, Jose Bautista, and Giancarlo Stanton, Adam Dunn isn’t worth your time, even if you can get him at half price. There are no extra roto points awarded for margin of victory in each category; the rest of your league knows it just as well as you do.

The goal of any draft is always to accumulate the greatest possible value, but flexibility is a source of value as well. Walking out of a draft knowing you’ll need to make a trade or two generally isn’t a good thing.

To be fair, there are cases when a draft-to-trade strategy can work. Especially in auction and keeper formats, there’s a point at which the gap between a player’s cost and value can make him a worthwhile asset, even if the rest of your roster dooms him to the bench.

For another lesson on what not to do, let’s go back to our buddy Kevin Towers.

The outfield surplus generated by his signing of Cody Ross demanded a trade, but it didn’t necessarily demand a trade of Upton. I imagine he would have preferred to trade Kubel, but the Ross signing likely had a greater depressive impact on Kubel’s market value than it did on Upton’s. There’s no shortage of Jason Kubels around the league; there are very few Jutin Uptons. With that in mind, I’d doubt teams were lining up to trade top talent for Kubel. Ostensibly, Towers had to make a choice between getting 50 cents on the dollar for Kubel or 75 for Upton.

He chose the transaction that would generated the greatest return, but given the situation, I’m not sure that was right thing to do.

Towers was able to hang on to a valuable asset in Kubel, but no player that he got back in the Upton trade can come close to matching the potential value that Towers gave up in Upton.

I’d argue that Towers would have been better off giving up Kubel for a B-level prospect in order to make sure that he clears space for players like Upton and Eaton, both of whom have more long-term value (and in Upton’s case, more short-term value as well).

But Towers chose the reverse. There’s no plausible scenario in which Kubel would play over Upton on an everyday basis, and while I’m sure this wasn’t the intended outcome of the trade, Towers essentially moved Upton to make room for Kubel.

Suddenly, it’s even more difficult to defend this trade for Arizona.

The flip side of that argument is that the Upton trade helped to build overall depth in the D’Backs’ minor league system, but unless you’re in a crazy deep keeper league, that line of thinking doesn’t have a practical application for fantasy.

In standard leagues, balance is overrated. Never make the mistake of trading an Upton to make room for a Kubel.

Your focus when trading from a Towers-like position should be less about getting value back and more about sacrificing as little value as possible. A one-for-one blockbuster is fine (for example, I wouldn’t be writing this piece if Towers had flipped Justin Upton for Elvis Andrus), but trading a superstar for spare parts should only be a last resort; there’s almost always a better move to be made and it’s usually on a smaller scale.

Say, for instance, you’ve got Joey Votto and Eric Hosmer in a re-draft league, but with only one 1B slot; you can’t play both at the same time. You’re starting Erick Aybar at SS and it makes your insides hurt. You need to make a move.

Votto is clearly your most valuable asset, but unless you can trade him for somebody in the Tulo/Reyes/Hanley territory, you’re better off keeping him and turning Hosmer into a second lottery ticket at SS. Whether it’s through a trade or just by dropping him outright for somebody like Josh Rutledge, your best move is to give yourself multiple chances at getting lucky with a SS. Even if Hosmer breaks out of his doldrums, the move is a success if you get any kind of value from Rutledge, since you couldn’t have played Hosmer anyway.

If assets in fantasy baseball were judged by absolute value, a move like that would be ridiculous, Hosmer is clearly better than Rutledge, but in this specific situation, the presence of Votto makes Hosmer essentially worthless, and the presence of Aybar makes Rutledge a chance at a significant upgrade to your team’s overall value.

This line of thinking may lead to some moves that make you a bit queazy, but in the long run, understanding that there’s no such thing as absolute value will ultimately help you build a better team.

Filed Under: Fantasy Baseball Tagged With: Arizona Diamondbacks, Atlanta Braves, Fantasy Baseball, Justin Upton, Martin Prado

Fantasy Baseball Week 8 Waiver Wire: 3 to Cut, 3 to Catch, 3 to Keep

Fantasy Baseball Week 7 Waiver Wire: 3 to Cut, 3 to Catch, 3 to Keep

Fantasy Baseball Week 6 Waiver Wire: 3 to Cut, 3 to Catch, 3 to Keep

Fantasy Baseball Week 5 Waiver Wire: 3 to Cut, 3 to Catch, 3 to Keep

Fantasy Baseball Week 4 Waiver Wire: 3 to Cut, 3 to Catch, 3 to Keep

Fantasy Baseball Week 3 Waiver Wire: 3 to Cut, 3 to Catch, 3 to Keep

Fantasy Baseball Week 2 Waiver Wire: 3 to Cut, 3 to Catch, 3 to Keep

Fantasy Baseball Week 1 Waiver Wire: 3 to Cut, 3 to Catch, 3 to Keep

Fantasy Baseball: Fueling the Hype Machine for Paul Goldschmidt

What the Justin Upton Trade Can Teach Us About Fantasy Baseball Strategy

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