2013 Fantasy Baseball Daily Fix: May 16, 2013

May 16, 2013 by Leave a Comment

This Friday, be sure to to enter the “Spring Fling” over at DraftKings. It’s your chance to turn an $11 entry fee into a $20,000 first place prize! Enter here!

The bleeding has officially stopped. Playing the one dollar play paid off, so we’re going to do it again today. If you want to get in on the action, DraftKings is still offering their deposit bonus. You can get in on the action today if you want. Sure, playing for only a buck may seem lame, but the life of a public school teacher isn’t as lucrative as you might think. It’s enough to get my juices flowing.

That means we go back to the MLB Daily Dollar. It’s only one dollar and brings some decent rate of return. Some might tell you to skimp on your pitching and go with some low salary alternatives. There are occasional bargains there, but make sure you get someone good even it means you pay a little more. On a winning team, pitching accounts for 40 to 50 percent of the total points.

My Lineup [Read more...]

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2013 Fantasy Baseball, Total Runs Series: First Basemen

May 15, 2013 by Leave a Comment

ryan_howard

Last time, we took a look at total runs and the catcher position to help us determine which players might be traded and which teams might be on the look for a catcher. This time we are shifting our attention to first base. First base is certainly not as popular in terms of trades as catcher, but many American League teams employ a first baseman as their primary designated hitter. We are not looking at those players here, but you can easily look at players in the reverse.

Just like we did with the catchers, we will look at the top twenty first basemen (Boston excluded since Mike Napoli was listed as a catcher) and then the bottom nine first basemen. Players that could be traded out of the top 20 will be bolded for reference. We’ll cover the trailer list as it comes.

[Read more...]

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2013 Fantasy Baseball Daily Fix: May 15, 2013

May 15, 2013 by Leave a Comment

Daily Fantasy Baseball Fix

This Friday, be sure to to enter the “Spring Fling” over at DraftKings. It’s your chance to turn an $11 entry fee into a $20,000 first place prize! Enter here!

It has been a rough week of action for the home team. A series of bad days and poor pitching performances have combined to shut me out. However, that is the beauty of daily fantasy baseball. Today is a new day. If you want to get in on the action, DraftKings is still offering their deposit bonus. You can get in on the action today if you want.

When we have a rough day (or week), it pays to get back to basics and play on some low stakes games. That means we go back to the MLB Daily Dollar. It’s only one dollar and brings some decent rate of return. We have to learn to walk before we can run. If anything has come through in technocolor for me this past week it is the importance of pitching. If you have a pitcher with somewhere between zero and negative points, you will likely not win money.

My Lineup [Read more...]

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2013 Fantasy Baseball, Total Run Series: Catchers

May 13, 2013 by Leave a Comment

I personally love total run index, but total run index is a difficult tool to use on the fly. It is more useful during the offseason when you want to evaluate players for your draft. During the season, I look for other tools that are useful for quick evaluations. Enter Bill James‘ Total Runs. They can be found at his website Bill James Online. It only costs a few dollars every quarter and you can get some useful numbers you won’t necessarily find at the traditional haunts.

For those that followed the total run index series, a few introductions are in order. The number looks different because it uses runs created as the primary hitting statistic rather than the offensive numbers I use. This is because he compares it with the replacement level player rather than the average like I do. His total runs include similar fielding and base running metrics as I do. For our purposes we will remove the fielding from the equation.

[Read more...]

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Looking Back at the 2013 Draft: NL Centerfielders

May 11, 2013 by Leave a Comment

Centerfield perhaps highlights the differences between fantasy baseball and real baseball more than any other position. So, when we highlight the the two most overrated guys we should probably keep that in mind. In terms of pure fantasy, they may not be that overrated, but in terms of real life they are. It’s hard to go back and forth between both worlds. We usually find ourselves a slave to one or the other.

Much like last time, we are noticing that owned percentages reflect 2013 more than they reflect 2012. So, we will try to look at both as we look at players that were either overdrafted or underdrafted. So, we are looking for players who’s current numbers and past numbers do not reflect where they should have been drafted. Usually, sabermetrics is at work. Again, sabermetrics and the fantasy world don’t always mix. In the fantasy world, a player like Jeff Francouer (although not now) is sometimes useful. In real life, he is very much useless most of the time.

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A Look Back at the 2013 Draft: AL Right Fielders

May 10, 2013 by Leave a Comment

We finally get to the end of the line with our position players (American League at least) and it isn’t soon enough. We are approaching the time when 2012 stats become more or less irrelevant. At least they become a lot less relevant in the face of what is going on in 2013. So, with these last two position player profiles, we focus an equal amount of attention on what is going on this year with what went on last year. Even with this season’s early returns in, we still see some areas where there is inefficiency.

The original intent of the series was to highlight those areas where fantasy players either overvalue or undervalue guys. You have to get back into the mode of what people were thinking on draft day. The difficulty is that percentages owned have been forever altered by those that have either dropped or added guys along the way. It’s an inexact science, so we proceed the best way we know how.

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A Look Back at the 2013 Draft: NL Right Fielders

May 9, 2013 by Leave a Comment

It took us awhile, but we got the end of the position players. The National League right field list is peculiar to say the least. When you look at the owned percentages you see a huge drop off even before you get out of the top ten. That right there tells you all you need to know about the perception of the position. As we  have noted before, the difference between perception and reality can be quite a lot. It’s no different when we look at this position and this highlights the differences between fantasy baseball and real baseball.

More than anything, the position has been rocked at he top with injuries to both Giancarlo Stanton and Jason Heyward. These injuries have taken a thin position and made it anorexic. Still, there is plenty of value to be had if you look hard enough and sometimes you might have to pay more attention to your roster on a daily basis due to platoons and other considerations.

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2013 Fantasy Baseball Daily Fix: May 9th, 2013

May 9, 2013 by Leave a Comment

Yesterday was a rough day for your’s truly. The  infield produced a whopping two points as my team failed to get in the money. These things happen. However, that is the beauty of daily fantasy baseball. Today is a new day. If you want to get in on the action, Draftkings is still offering their deposit bonus. You can get in on the action today if you want.

When we have a rough day, it pays to get back to basics and play on some low stakes games. That means we go back to the MLB Daily Dollar. It’s only one dollar and brings some decent rate of return. We have to learn to walk before we can run.

My Lineup

Catcher: Wilin Rosario vs. C.C. Sabathia ($5,200)

Yes, it’s Sabathia, but we have two things going in our favor here. First, Rosario has a stellar record against lefties. Secondly, it’s being played at Coors Field, so it’s highly likely that some runs will be scored.

First Base: Edwin Encarnacion vs. David Price ($4,300)

Encarnacion is going up against a struggling Price. He is better against lefties anyway and he is on a hot streak right now. Sure, the average is low, but he has quietly gotten up to ten home runs on the season.

Second Base: Kelly Johnson vs. R.A. Dickey ($3,400)

Dickey has been inconsistent at best so far on the season while Johnson seems to have rediscovered whatever magic he had back in 2011. They have him playing at second and left field these days, but he’s eligible at second today and that’s all that matters.

Third Base: David Wright vs. Jeff Locke ($4,300)

David Wright is cheap today for some reason and I have to take a shot on a guy averaging more than ten points a game on the season. Locke is off to a good start, but he doesn’t have the kind of pedigree that makes you scared to play someone like Wright.

Shortstop: Andrelton Simmons vs. Ryan Vogelsong ($3,500)

It looks like the clock has struck midnight for Vogelsong. Two years ago nobody knew who he was. He’s had two very good seasons, but he came from nowhere and to nowhere he shall return. Simmons has been producing decent numbers so far and shouldn’t struggle tommorrow.

Outfield: Cody Ross vs. Cole Hamels ($3,400)

Hamels has been shaky on the season so far (1-4, 4,34 ERA) and Ross has been back a couple of weeks now. He isn’t the guy he was last season, but he has been solid for much of his career. For one day he should be fine.

Outfield: Josh Willingham vs. John Lackey ($5,200)

John Lackey is off to a good start on the season, but he was injured all of last season and was horrible in 2011. Willingham hits lefties and righties equally well, so he is a sensible play.

Outfield: Jose Bautista vs. David Price ($4,700)

I hate to play twice against a pitcher of Price’s caliber, but we are talking about one of the better outfielders in baseball and one that mashes against lefties. Chances are that either Encarnacion or Bautista will get to him.

Pitcher: Jeremy Guthrie vs Baltimore Orioles ($7,700)

Guthrie is 4-0 on the season with a sparkling 2.40 ERA. I don’t think he is really this good, but he is going against his former employers, so maybe he has a little extra juice going. I’m simply betting that the hot start will last one more start.

Pitcher: Patrick Corbin vs. Philadelphia Phillies ($8,300)

Corbin is off to a fantastic start, and as one of the highly touted arms that have come up in recent years with the Dbacks, there is no reason to believe that this should not continue.

Yesterday’s Highlights

The Astros won two games in a row. Stop the presses, the Astros have won two games in a row. More importantly, it means the Los Angeles Angels can do no better than 3-3 against the Astros in the early going. I can’t help but think of guys like Peter Gammons that questioned the integrity of the game with the Astros in the American League West.

While it is true that the Astros are 0-6 against the Athletics, they have claimed eight of their ten wins against AL West opponents. These things happen I guess. The struggling Angels are now nearly ten games out of the division lead and we haven’t even gotten to Memorial Day yet.

The rest of the American League action seems to be setting up according to traditional norms. The Yankees and Red Sox are on top in the AL East, the Tigers are on top in the Central, and the Rangers are on top in the AL West. Sometimes you really can predict these things.

In National League action, the Nationals won the battle of the aces to move within two games of the Atlanta Braves. They are clearly the class of the National League East with the Mets, Phillies, and Marlins all under .500 in the early going.

The Pittsburgh Pirates continue their march to respectability despite a close defeat to Felix Hernandez and the Mariners. At 18-15, they stand tied with the Reds in second place in the Central. With the extra wild card, they could be an interesting team to watch as the season goes along. Both Wandy Rodriguez and A.J. Burnett are pitching well and their bullpen has been spectacular.

The Dodgers may be off to a slow start (13-19), but the Dbacks (18-15) and the Rockies (19-13) seemed poised to give the Giants a run for their money. Barry Zito has been brilliant in the early going (2.75 ERA) but Ryan Vogelsong has turned back into a pumpkin. They officially trail the Rockies in the early going, but we know the Giants are strong finishers. A good series sweep of the Dodgers coupled with another close win yesterday have them back in the hunt.

MLBtv Game of the Day

The powers that be are featuring the likes of the Pirates and the Mets. Far be it from me to disagree, but today sees the first battle between two teams with 20 or more wins as the Braves take on the Giants. Ryan Vogelsong has struggled so far, but Julio Teheran has struggled as well. So, it might be a high scoring affair for a change.

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2013 Daily Fantasy Baseball Fix: May 8, 2013

May 8, 2013 by Leave a Comment

The calendar prattles on, but the good folks at Draftkings are still offering their deposit bonus for playing. Even if you’ve taken it in the teeth on your full season fantasy teams, you can start anew with Draft Kings. No matter how bad each day goes, you can always count on the next day for a new opportunity.

Today, we will be playing the $11 Double Up. Yes, it’s big money, but you have a 50/50 shot of bring twenty dollars back. The beauty of the double up is that you don’t have to be perfect to win. You can blow a starting pitcher or a couple of position players and still come out in the money.

My Lineup

Catcher: Nick Hundley vs. Ricky Nolasco  ($3,300)

One of the great things about Draftkings is they make you stay on your toes. Sometimes, the guys you want are not available. Hundley has done a complete 180 in 2013, so it is high time we throw him some love. Nolasco is a nice starting pitcher, but he isn’t unhittable.

First Base: Yonder Alonso vs. Ricky Nolasco ($3,900)

Like Hundley, Alonso has been decent in his second full season and Nolasco can be hittable. You should dedicate most of your attention (not necessarily money) to your pitching. When you can save money and still make a decent play you do it.

Second Base: Dustin Ackley vs. A.J. Burnett ($3,500)

Always take advantage when Draftkings hasn’t caught up with the times. Ackley was very ordinary last season, but he has started to turn things around with the bat. A.J. Burnett is not necessarily the best guy to make a play against, but again we are talking about saving money.

Third Base: Pedro Alvarez vs. Felix Hernandez ($3,800)

Again, Felix Hernandez is not the guy you want to tangle with, but Alvarez is slowly starting to turn things around on the season. He is quietly on pace to have another 30 home run season even though the batting average is low. All he has to do is connect once to make it worth your while.

Shortstop: Everth Cabrera vs. Ricky Nolasco ($3,400)

We have our third guy going up against Ricky Nolasco. The Marlins are the majors second worst team behind the Astros, so I guess it makes sense to bet against them. Cabrera has the added benefit of being able to swipe a bag or two to give you some good points.

Outfield: Hunter Pence vs. Jonathan Pettibone ($3,900)

Hunter Pence is a steady performer. He’s an overpaid and overrated performer, but he is a steady performer. The advantage here is that he is taking on a younger pitcher, so there is a good chance you can get some cheap points out of this.

Outfield: Michael Saunders vs. A.J. Burnett ($3,400)

Michael Saunders has been quietly good over the last year. He has some good power and speed to match it. He won’t wow you in any particular category, but he does enough of everything to be a solid play every now and then.

Outfield: Starling Marte vs. Felix Hernandez ($4,300)

Marte has gotten off to a good start this season and should be able to continue it even against the likes of Felix Hernandez. Yes, it isn’t normally a good idea to start more than one guy against a staff ace, but sometimes good hitting can beat good pitching.

Pitcher: Felix Hernandez vs. Pittsburgh Pirates ($11,900)

Felix Hernandez is a legitimate ace. Sometimes, you can hit aces, but they make their hay by not allowing things to get away from them. In other words, you will get your points with Hernandez one way or another. You should get 40-50 points from your pitchers, so sometimes you have to bite the bullet and invest heavily in them.

Pitcher: Jake Westbrook vs. Chicago Cubs ($8,000)

He may be only 2-1, but he has a sub 2.00 ERA and he’s going up against one of the weaker offenses in the National League. Westbrook isn’t a dominant pitcher like Hernandez and others, but he is a steady performer and someone that seems guaranteed to give you some points.

Tuesday Night Highlights

It’s early. At least that’s what the pundits will say, but this is two years in a row the Los Angeles Angels have gotten off to slow starts. They lost to the Astros 7-6 to drop to 11-21 on the season. Sure, they are still better than the lowly Astros, but they are ten games below .500 and falling further and further behind the front-running Rangers.

Meanwhile, the Braves and Reds are involved in what could be a playoff preview. The Reds won this one as Shin Soo Choo hit two home runs (including one against Craig Kimbrel in the 9th inning). That is more blown saves for Kimbrel in the first six weeks than he had all of last season and an equal amount to 2011.

More than anything, to prove the importance of pitching, we saw three shutouts and another rainout during Tuesday action. Two of the shutouts were 1-0 games with one of them being 2-0. It looks like 2013 might be the year of the pitcher. Pay more attention to the pitching match-ups this year.

MLB.tv Game of the Day

You very rarely get great pitching match ups on top of being against two playoff contenders. The Detroit Tigers and Washington Nationals are battling with the team’s top two early season starters going at it. Anibal Sanchez is outperforming Justin Verlander so far on the season while Jordan Zimmerman is besting both Gio Gonzalez and Stephen Strasburg. The Nationals need this one to keep up with the Braves.

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Looking Back at the 2013 Draft: AL Centerfielders

May 7, 2013 by Leave a Comment

The calendar is rapidly approaching the point where most people will stop looking back at 2012 and will start focusing entirely on what is going on in 2013. Some experts look at the six week mark as the key time to start taking stock in what is going on now. Others look to the eight week mark before they start doing that. Either way, the owned rates more accurately reflect what is going on this season (or they should) and not what happened last season. Still, we see the occasional pecularity and those are the situations we will highlight.

What makes them peculiar is the fact that the player’s fantasty situation reflects neither what happened in 2012 nor what is happening this season. These situations are becoming increasingly rare as the season wears on. Hot hitters are being snatched up by now, and struggling hitters are getting dangerously close to the drop dead date. Within the next week we will see a number of players dropped from a high percentage of leagues due to owners that just can’t afford to wait anymore. Pay to attention to those as you can benefit from one or two.

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