2014 Fantasy Baseball Daily Fix: July 26th

Sonny Gray Fantasy Baseball

Source: Jason O. Watson/Getty Images North America

Happy Saturday!  Welcome back to the Daily Fix here at the Fantasy Fix. For those who aren’t yet Daily Fantasy baseball players at DraftKings head over there via this link and join. DraftKings gives you $50,000 to draft eight hitters (one at each position) and two pitchers. They will double your initial deposit up to $600, so it’s a great time to jump in.

Let’s take a look at today’s slate, and see where we can exploit the matchups! You can find me on twitter @RyNoonan if you have player specific questions.

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2014 Fantasy Baseball: Week 16 Roundup

Photo credit: John Leon-Guerrero

Photo credit: John Leon-Guerrero

There comes a time in everyone’s life when they must look themselves in the mirror and determine what they must improve upon to give themselves the best chance to succeed at whatever endeavor said person is striving for. Whether it be improving your attitude, work ethic, ability to communicate, specific skill at the workplace, etc., there are plenty of ways for people to make up for a bad first impression. For baseball purposes, examples could range from learning how to better hit specific pitches, adjusting to defensive shifts, or in the case of the forthcoming topic, improving an approach against a pitcher of the same handedness. In the case of the following headline, the player addressed his shortcomings against a type of pitcher to completely change his fortunes and appeal to fantasy owners this year.

With all that being said, it’s time to get the Week 16 Roundup started. You can comment below with any questions or remarks or you can let me know on Twitter. (@MattMoczy) [Read more...]

2014 Fantasy Baseball Daily Fix Podcast: July 25, 2014

wood land

Source: Scott Cunningham/Getty Images North America

Below is a podcast with me discussing daily fantasy strategy for the day. It’s only about seven or eight minutes long. I discuss the starting pitchers with the highest projected point totals and the ones who are the best value for their price. I also discuss which teams are the best to use for stacking hitters from the same lineup. You can also find the podcast on iTunes by searching for ‘thefantasyfix.com’ in the search bar.

2014 Fantasy Baseball: Marcus Stroman, Disturbingly Underdiscussed

Stroman-640x360

It’s kind of hard to remember that Marcus Stroman was called up this season. It was a huge deal when it happened, but there hasn’t been much noise around him since, maybe it’s because the Blue Jays have fallen off. Still, he joined a struggling rotation that was basically just being asked to not blow games, because Toronto’s offense was so good. Well, he’s been everything they/we expected of him, possibly more.

Prospect coverage is so good in baseball today, that we’re immediately onto the next thing after one person is called up. Stroman’s up? Cool, what about Gregory Polanco, though? After Polanco was called up, we began focusing on Mookie Betts and Arismendy Alcantara. That isn’t a bad thing; it’s our nature. always looking at what’s on the horizon (Hi, Kris Bryant!) makes us miss what is happening in front of us, though. So, today, let’s appreciate Marcus Stroman.

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2014 Fantasy Baseball: Week 17 Free Agent Fixes

With a few closers rumored to be on the trading block, a trio of relievers get the nod this week as worthwhile adds in fantasy leagues. They are joined by a starting pitcher who looks to be rounding back into form since his activation from the disabled list, a third baseman changing leagues and greatly upgrading ballparks, and an outfielder thrust into an injury riddled lineup.

Clay Buchholz, SP, Boston Red Sox

Ownership: ESPN: 36.7%, Yahoo!: 51%, CBS: 74%

Since returning from the disabled list in June, Buchholz is throwing his fourseam fastball and sinker with the type of giddy up he did while mowing down hitters early last year according to Brooks Baseball’s PITCHf/x data. More exciting still is that his changeup has been a filthy bat misser. As colleague Chris Garosi pointed out that Buchholz was quoted in early July discussing that he regained the feel of his changeup, and that would go a long way in explaining the huge spike whiffs.

The Red Sox hurler was hit around some in his last start allowing 10 hits in six innings, but he failed to walk any batters and managed to tally 12 whiffs on 104 pitches thrown (11.5 percent whiff rate). Over the last 30 days FanGraphs has him totaling a 3.76 FIP in five starts spanning 35.2 innings with a silly 0.8 percent walk rate and 19.4 percent strikeout rate. If he can get back to inducing groundballs at a slightly higher rate, something his work in the past and in his last start suggest he can do, his upside exceeds his 3.76 FIP. Buchholz should be owned in all but the shallowest of leagues, and he has the type of talent that could force him onto roster even in those formats. [Read more...]

2014 Fantasy Baseball Daily Fix Podcast: July 24, 2014

kluber land

Below is a podcast with me discussing daily fantasy strategy for the day. It’s only about nine minutes long. I discuss the starting pitchers with the highest projected point totals and the ones who are the best value for their price. I also discuss which teams are the best to use for stacking hitters from the same lineup. You can also find the podcast on iTunes by searching for ‘thefantasyfix.com’ in the search bar.

2014 Fantasy Baseball: The Farm Report, July 22

baez land

The MiLB report is back.

Mookie Betts, after a short stint in Boston, is back in Triple-A. His long term prospects haven’t changed, though; his talent will likely shine through next season, when he should be in line for regular at-bats.

Another stalwart, who bursted onto the scene, has struggled mightily lately – if you’re thinking about Gregory Polanco, we’re on the same wavelength. In his last 100 plate appearances, Polanco has posted a 62 wRC+. Much like Betts, he’s fine. He’s just another example, that despite any prospect’s pedigree, immediate success isn’t guaranteed.

As for players still in the minors… [Read more...]

2014 Fantasy Baseball Daily Fix: July 23rd

They say you can never go home again. Yet, here we are with Draftkings yet again. In case you are just joining us, Draftstreet and Draftkings merged, so we are back to playing with Draftkings. The good news is that Draftkings has incorporated some of the popular aspects of Draftstreet. If you were playing at Draftstreet, you can easily transfer your balance over to Draftkings by clicking on the Draftstreet link. The process is very simple.

Today, we will be playing the MLB $1 50/50 Early Only game. I like to play the double up games because they have they have the best odds and you can make a mistake or two. Draftkings uses a 50,000 cap where Draftstreet used a 100,000 cap. The difference is partially made up by having one fewer starting pitcher and not including a utility player. However, their salaries are also set up differently. They use some of the same methods on deciding who should be worth the most money. It is based on who averages the most points per game in conjunction with who they may be facing that particular day.

Offensive Scoring

  • Single = +3 PTs

  • Double = +5 PTs

  • Triple = +8 PTs

  • Home Run = +10 PTs

  • Run Batted In = +2 PTs

  • Run = +2 PTs

  • Base on Balls = +2 PTs

  • Hit By Pitch = +2 PTs

  • Stolen Base = +5 PTs

  • Caught Stealing = -2 PT

Pitching Scoring

  • Inning Pitched = +2.25 PTs

  • Strike Out = +2 PTs

  • Win = +4 PTs

  • Earned Run Allowed = -2 PTs

  • Hit Against = -0.6 PTs

  • Base on Balls Against = -0.6 PTs

  • Hit Batsman = -0.6 PTs

  • Complete Game = +2.5 PTs

  • Complete Game Shut Out = +2.5 PTs

  • No Hitter = +5 PTs

As we normally do, we will provide two different lineups. I will give you the lineup that I will be using during tomorrow’s game. You have to keep in mind that it is only the early games, so not every player is available to use. I will also include reasonable alternatives. One of the new features with Draftkings is a weather report for each game the next day. Sometimes, last minute lineup changes need to be made, so take the extra lineup as some helpful suggestions in case you need them.

Salary

Opposing SP

Comments

C

Miguel Montero

3,900

Anibal Sanchez

Montero is having a much better season this year.

1B

Victor Martinez

4,600

Trevor Cahill

Martinez is having a career year and Cahill is very hittable.

2B

Anthony Rendon

4,800

Jorge De La Rosa

Rendon is a good hitter and this is at Coors Field.

3B

Carlos Santana

4,500

Kyle Gibson

Santana is finally distancing himself from the Mendoza line.

SS

Scooter Gennett

3,800

Mike Leake

Scooter Gennett as a shortstop? I’ll take it.

OF

Michael Brantley

5,100

Kyle Gibson

Brantley is quietly having a very good season.

OF

J.D. Martinez

4,600

Trevor Cahill

Don’t you know the Astros wished they had Martinez now.

OF

Alex Gordon

4,300

Jose Quintana

Sabermetricians say he’s a star. They probably are off but not by much.

SP

Trevor Bauer

6,700

Minnesota Twins

Maybe Bauer has finally figured it out.

SP

Bartolo Colon

7,200

Seattle Mariners

This might be his last start in a Mets uniform.

 

Salary

Opposing SP

Comments

C

Yan Gomes

4,100

Kyle Gibson

He may not be the best in the game, but he is pretty dangerous.

1B

Todd Frazier

4,600

Kyle Lohse

He’s quietly reached 20 home runs already on the season.

2B

Brian Dozier

4,600

Trevor Bauer

He is the stereotypical high risk/high reward player.

3B

Kyle Seager

4,400

Bartolo Colon

Seager seems to get a little better each season.

SS

Jean Segura

3,500

Mike Leake

He is a good cheap option if you want to spend big elsewhere.

OF

Carlos Gomez

4,900

Mike Leake

He is a little better than he was last season.

OF

Jay Bruce

4,300

Kyle Lohse

His numbers are down only because he spent time on the DL.

SP

Taijuan Walker

8,000

New York Mets

The Mets are a nice to team to return against.

2014 Fantasy Baseball: The Daily Double Switch for July 22nd

Ian Desmond Fantasy Baseball

Source: Rob Carr/Getty Images North America

Ah, it’s Tuesday which means we’ve got lots of options today!  Let’s take a look at today’s slate, and see where we can exploit the matchups. You can find me on twitter @RyNoonan if you have player specific questions.

If you haven’t jumped into the daily action yet now is the time! It’s not too late and we here at The Fantasy Fix have a great deal that’ll help you get started. What are you waiting for? DraftKings has a MLB Medium Midsummer Classic today with $100,000 prize pool and the top 1,125 finishers win cash! Go ahead, click that link.

Game times and Weather

Every team is in action on Tuesday, and it’s a full slate of night games. We get started with the 7:05 pm EST games on the east coast. Weather might be an issue in the Midwest though. It’s rare that both the White Sox and Cubs are playing simultaneous night games, and they’re both facing threats of thunderstorms so watch that situation carefully.

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2014 Fantasy Baseball: Real Offensive Value — Shortstops, Part II

andrus land

Source: Cooper Neill/Getty Images North America

The trade deadline is rapidly approaching. One could go to MLB Trade Rumors every 15 minutes to check out the rumors, but most of the deadline deals are about common sense. Which teams are in the playoff hunt and which teams are clearly out of the playoff hunt. From there you look at teams needs and places of surplus for the sellers and you can play matchmaker pretty easily.

The second group of shortstops are a coveted group even though their numbers leave a lot to be desired. If you add in the Detroit Tigers (who did not have a qualifying shortstop), there are a grand total of five teams that have shortstops with real offensive values below .200. As you might imagine, any team that has any designs of getting to October can’t survive long with any position that weak. Mind you, the players on the next list may not be world beaters, but teams looking to make it to the playoffs might find something they like.

ROV

RP

RC

DIFF%

wRC+

Asdrubal Cabrera

.241

79

41

193

98

Alexei Ramirez

.240

78

44

177

97

Erick Aybar

.239

91

46

198

107

Eduardo Escobar

.234

49

31

158

98

Jed Lowrie

.232

77

37

208

89

Ruben Tejada

.231

43

27

159

87

Jonathan Villar

.227

43

19

226

65

Yunel Escobar

.223

35

24

146

90

Elvis Andrus

.219

70

35

200

76

Xander Bogearts

.219

55

34

162

82

Last time, we added the differential category that calculates how many more runs a player is producing (RBI + Runs – HR) than they are creating. As you can see, it is natural for any player to produce more, but the question is how much more. Here, we see three players that are producing twice as many runs as they are creating. Obviously, they are benefitting from either good luck or from good support.

Asdrubal Cabrera– Cleveland Indians

The extra wild card has put some teams in no man’s land. After advancing to the playoffs last season, the Indians may be reluctant to give up on this season. The Tigers appear to be running away with the division, but as long as the Indians hover around .500 they may be tempted to add rather than subtract. That being said, there might not be no better time to deal Cabrera since Francisco Lindor is waiting in the wings. Cabrera might be the most overrated shortstop on the board overall, so if you can get a couple of good prospects for him you should probably do it.

Erick Aybar– Los Angeles Angels

Aybar is second among shortstops in runs produced. Let that sink in a little bit when considering his value. Unfortunately, the Angels are like the riverboat gambler that sticks in with a pair of eights. They look around the table to and see some aces and some jacks, but they just can’t throw the cards in. They are on pace to win a wild card now, so they added Huston Street to the roster. In terms of the long-term future, trading Aybar now would make perfect sense. Yet, that would mean folding after they’ve already shucked for a buck.

Jed Lowrie– Oakland Athletics

Lowrie is an enigma wrapped in a riddle. He falls in the middle of the pack in terms of real offensive value, but that also puts him as a below average player in comparison with the rest of the league. Yet, the Athletics chose to deal Addison Russell, so there really isn’t much waiting in the wings. The decision on Lowrie will come in the offseason when it comes time to decide on a new contract. Defensively, he is a bit of a liability, but he is capable of playing second and third. He might be able to survive as one of those super subs.

Jonathan Villar– Houston Astros

The Astros sent Villar down several weeks ago, but he still has enough at bats to qualify as an everyday shortstop. Funny, but he has performed better offensively than some shortstops that play everyday. Go figure. The Astros have one of the deeper farm systems in the game and Marwin Gonzalez seems to be holding down the fort just fine. Maybe Villar gets thrown into a deal towards the deadline for a desperate team. He could also stick around and compete for the job again next season.

Elvis Andrus– Texas Rangers

The stars are aligned perfectly for Andrus to be dealt. Jurickson Profar is the shortstop of the future and was stuck at second base. Rougned Odor seems to have taken to the position in Profar’s absence, so there is a logjam there again. The Rangers are losing, so if they can shed just a little salary in the coming weeks (namely Andrus, Alex Rios and Joakim Soria) then they will be ready to fight another day when their injured brigade comes back healthy in 2015.