Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Advice & Analysis
After an inconsistent career in the bullpen, Jeff Samardzija has put his career on track as the front man of the Cubs rotation and it does not appear that he is going anywhere. In fact, it looks like we are only beginning to see the abilities that Samardzija has and we are just seeing how good he can eventually be.
If you play AL-Only roto (which you should. Points are blech.), you should know this situation. You were relying on one or two guys to supply a majority of one category and then a 3 week cold streak or a DL-stint happens and all of sudden, you’re at the bottom of a category you expected to contend in. No worries friends, here are 3 players specifically designed to help you make up lost ground.
Stolen Bases/Runs
Jarrod Dyson, Outfielder, Kansas City Royals: Before Dyson went onto the DL, he was regularly receiving playing time over Jeff Francouer. Perhaps even more exciting is that Ned Yost has sat Frenchy down for Dyson’s replacement, David Lough. Right before Dyson got injured, Howard Bender of Fangraphs wrote that it was the time to pick Jarrod Dyson up. While in AL-Only leagues, he is already owned, the principle is solid. The tides were beginnings to turn, as Francouer was sitting more and Dyson was starting in non-platoon situations. In his major league career, Dyson has 56 steals and only 8 caught stealings. Part of the problem with the Royals scoring runs is the lack of a real leadoff hitter. While Dyson only had a .286 OBP before his injury, he was at a more respectable .328 last year and if he can return to that pace when he returns and is playing behind Alex Gordon and Billy Butler, he will score his fair amount of runs. A player who is on the DL and seen as a 4th outfielder is a pretty cheap fantasy commodity and if you are buying on Dyson, now is the time to do it.
Home Runs/RBI
Micheal Morse, Outfield, Seattle Mariners- I don’t know what more Morse needs to do to earn the respect of the larger fantasy community. It is true that he is playing in a weaker lineup and on the west coast, but is there anyway that Lyle Overbay is equal value for Morse? No, but that didn’t some owner somewhere from doing that trade, according to Morse’s CBS fantasy player page. Ever since his 2010 breakout season, Morse has hit .289, .303, and .291. Yet in 2013, he is hitting .244. Possibly from playing in Safeco, but more likely due to a much, much, much lower than career average .269 BABIP. You aren’t trading for Morse to get his batting average though, you are doing it to get the power that he is already supplying with 10 home runs this season. Even if his batting average doesn’t improve, you’ll get a solid power source in a lineup that has been better than most realize and will only get better as the M’s prospects get called up.
Batting Average
James Loney, First Base, Tampa Bay Rays- That’s right. I’m buying in. The Rays just know things about baseball that the rest of us are not privy too. This is a team that changed Fernando Rodney’s foot placement and got a 0.60 ERA season out of him. The changes that Maddon and the coaching staff have made have resulted in fewer ground balls, and more line drives which will drive a batting average. Loney’s .186 ISO is close to Russel Carleton’s found stabilizing point; yet another positive indicator. A more in-depth analysis of the mechanical changes can be found at The Process Report. Loney may eventually turn into a pumpkin, but it isn’t coming anytime soon. Chances are, the owner in your AL-Only league thinks that the other shoe is going to drop much sooner than it is and will give you a severe discount for him.
Regression? Bwahahaha!
TheFantasyFix.com’s “Tools of the Trade” is a unique guide for owners to use while attempting to make an even trade with their league-mates in a standard 12-team mixed, 5×5 head-to-head or rotisserie redraft league.
The values present in this guide are simply the basis for a trade. A full-blown analysis of each team’s strengths and weaknesses are essential prior to proposing or accepting a trade offer.
How to use the guide: Ideally, owners will agree to a trade that will aid both sides and stay within $2-3 of each other in a one-for-one and $4-5 in a multi-player deal, according to our chart.
The Week 1 “Tools of the Trade” was free for all readers, and so is this weeks! But going forward, the “Tools of the Trade” will only be available to Front Office members. Learn the benefits of being a Front Office member here.
Without further ado, here is week 8′s trade value chart:
| Player | Value | Player | Value | Player | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel Cabrera – Det 3B | $41 | Alejandro De Aza – CWS OF | $12 | Brandon Morrow – Tor P | $5 |
| Mike Trout – LAA OF | $40 | Michael Bourn – Cle OF | $12 | Jeremy Guthrie – KC P | $5 |
| Ryan Braun – Mil OF | $39 | Torii Hunter – Det OF | $12 | Tim Hudson – Atl P | $5 |
| Justin Upton – Atl OF | $38 | Nelson Cruz – Tex OF | $12 | Josh Beckett – LAD P | $5 |
| Prince Fielder – Det 1B | $37 | Mat Latos – Cin P | $12 | Andrew Bailey – Bos P | $5 |
| Carlos Gonzalez – Col OF | $37 | Nick Markakis – Bal OF | $12 | Huston Street – SD P | $5 |
| Joey Votto – Cin 1B | $36 | R.A. Dickey – Tor P | $11 | Domonic Brown – Phi OF | $4 |
| Robinson Cano – NYY 2B | $35 | A.J. Burnett – Pit P | $11 | Mike Morse – Sea OF | $4 |
| Clayton Kershaw – LAD P | $35 | Addison Reed – CWS P | $11 | Aramis Ramirez – Mil 3B | $4 |
| Adam Jones – Bal OF | $34 | Chase Utley – Phi 2B | $11 | Tom Milone – Oak P | $4 |
| Bryce Harper – Was OF | $34 | Josh Hamilton – LAA OF | $11 | Brandon McCarthy – Ari P | $4 |
| Paul Goldschmidt – Ari 1B | $33 | Norichika Aoki – Mil OF | $11 | Justin Morneau – Min 1B | $4 |
| Troy Tulowitzki – Col SS | $33 | Jimmy Rollins – Phi SS | $11 | Jed Lowrie – Oak SS | $4 |
| Andrew McCutchen – Pit OF | $33 | Jason Grilli – Pit P | $11 | Brandon Moss – Oak 1B | $4 |
| Evan Longoria – TB 3B | $33 | Desmond Jennings – TB OF | $11 | Michael Saunders – Sea OF | $4 |
| Justin Verlander – Det P | $32 | Doug Fister – Det P | $11 | Ryan Doumit – Min C | $4 |
| David Wright – NYM 3B | $30 | Jake Peavy – CWS P | $11 | Scott Feldman – ChC P | $4 |
| Felix Hernandez – Sea P | $30 | Adrian Gonzalez – LAD 1B | $11 | Ervin Santana – KC P | $4 |
| Alex Gordon – KC OF | $28 | Matt Carpenter – StL 3B | $11 | Heath Bell – Ari P | $4 |
| Shin-Soo Choo – Cin OF | $28 | Lance Lynn – StL P | $11 | Grant Balfour – Oak P | $4 |
| Yu Darvish – Tex P | $28 | Anthony Cingrani – Cin P | $11 | Jason Hammel – Bal P | $4 |
| Matt Kemp – LAD OF | $27 | Alexander Cobb – TB P | $11 | Jose Fernandez – Mia P | $4 |
| Adrian Beltre – Tex 3B | $27 | Jeremy Hellickson – TB P | $11 | Jon Jay – StL OF | $4 |
| Chris Davis – Bal 1B | $27 | Jonathan Papelbon – Phi P | $9 | Jonathon Niese – NYM P | $4 |
| Adam Wainwright – StL P | $26 | Joe Nathan – Tex P | $9 | David DeJesus – ChC OF | $4 |
| Yoennis Cespedes – Oak OF | $23 | Tom Wilhelmsen – Sea P | $9 | Ernesto Frieri – LAA P | $4 |
| Edwin Encarnacion – Tor 1B | $23 | Gerardo Parra – Ari OF | $9 | Chris Tillman – Bal P | $4 |
| Carlos Gomez – Mil OF | $23 | Eric Hosmer – KC 1B | $9 | Kelly Johnson – TB 2B | $4 |
| Dustin Pedroia – Bos 2B | $22 | David Ortiz – Bos DH | $9 | Kyle Lohse – Mil P | $3 |
| Starlin Castro – ChC SS | $22 | Mitch Moreland – Tex 1B | $9 | Miguel Montero – Ari C | $3 |
| Jose Bautista – Tor OF | $22 | Patrick Corbin – Ari P | $9 | Adam Eaton – Ari OF | $3 |
| Matt Harvey – NYM P | $22 | Matt Wieters – Bal C | $9 | David Freese – StL 3B | $3 |
| Cliff Lee – Phi P | $22 | Dan Uggla – Atl 2B | $9 | Jose Reyes – Tor SS | $3 |
| Jason Heyward – Atl OF | $22 | Brian McCann – Atl C | $9 | Chris Perez – Cle P | $3 |
| Jay Bruce – Cin OF | $21 | Alcides Escobar – KC SS | $9 | James Loney – TB 1B | $3 |
| Jordan Zimmermann – Was P | $21 | Salvador Perez – KC C | $9 | Dan Haren – Was P | $3 |
| Alex Rios – CWS OF | $21 | Kris Medlen – Atl P | $8 | Kenley Jansen – LAD P | $3 |
| Buster Posey – SF C | $21 | Rafael Soriano – Was P | $8 | Jayson Werth – Was OF | $3 |
| Carlos Santana – Cle C | $21 | Justin Masterson – Cle P | $8 | Carlos Quentin – SD OF | $3 |
| Stephen Strasburg – Was P | $21 | Jered Weaver – LAA P | $8 | Didi Gregorius – Ari SS | $3 |
| Cole Hamels – Phi P | $21 | Vernon Wells – NYY OF | $8 | Jose Veras – Hou P | $3 |
| Chase Headley – SD 3B | $21 | Coco Crisp – Oak OF | $8 | Omar Infante – Det 2B | $3 |
| Manny Machado – Bal 3B | $20 | Michael Cuddyer – Col OF | $8 | Tim Lincecum – SF P | $3 |
| Shelby Miller – StL P | $20 | Hanley Ramirez – LAD SS | $8 | Justin Ruggiano – Mia OF | $2 |
| David Price – TB P | $20 | Daniel Murphy – NYM 2B | $8 | Jose Valverde – Det P | $2 |
| Albert Pujols – LAA 1B | $20 | Daniel Nava – Bos OF | $8 | Nate Schierholtz – ChC OF | $2 |
| Pablo Sandoval – SF 3B | $20 | Hyun-Jin Ryu – LAD P | $8 | Jason Kubel – Ari OF | $2 |
| Chris Sale – CWS P | $20 | Paul Maholm – Atl P | $8 | Chris Denorfia – SD OF | $2 |
| Brandon Phillips – Cin 2B | $20 | Yovani Gallardo – Mil P | $8 | Evan Gattis – Atl C | $2 |
| Jason Kipnis – Cle 2B | $20 | Ryan Howard – Phi 1B | $8 | Chris Carter – Hou OF | $2 |
| Madison Bumgarner – SF P | $19 | J.P. Arencibia – Tor C | $8 | Howie Kendrick – LAA 2B | $2 |
| Jeff Samardzija – ChC P | $19 | Angel Pagan – SF OF | $8 | Brett Gardner – NYY OF | $2 |
| Craig Kimbrel – Atl P | $18 | Shane Victorino – Bos OF | $7 | Edinson Volquez – SD P | $2 |
| Mark Reynolds – Cle 1B | $18 | Ike Davis – NYM 1B | $7 | Phil Hughes – NYY P | $2 |
| Giancarlo Stanton – Mia OF | $18 | Neil Walker – Pit 2B | $7 | David Murphy – Tex OF | $2 |
| Jon Lester – Bos P | $18 | B.J. Upton – Atl OF | $7 | Fernando Rodney – TB P | $2 |
| Jean Segura – Mil SS | $18 | Josh Donaldson – Oak 3B | $7 | Kevin Gregg – ChC P | $2 |
| Ian Kinsler – Tex 2B | $18 | Jim Henderson – Mil P | $7 | Adam Dunn – CWS 1B | $2 |
| Starling Marte – Pit OF | $18 | Edward Mujica – StL P | $7 | Marco Estrada – Mil P | $2 |
| Hunter Pence – SF OF | $16 | Hiroki Kuroda – NYY P | $7 | Jarrod Parker – Oak P | $2 |
| Anthony Rizzo – ChC 1B | $16 | Martin Prado – Ari 3B | $7 | Jason Vargas – LAA P | $2 |
| Matthew Moore – TB P | $16 | Andre Ethier – LAD OF | $7 | Julio Teheran – Atl P | $2 |
| Dexter Fowler – Col OF | $16 | Russell Martin – Pit C | $7 | Daniel Straily – Oak P | $2 |
| Anibal Sanchez – Det P | $15 | Garrett Jones – Pit 1B | $7 | Aaron Hicks – Min OF | $2 |
| Mariano Rivera – NYY P | $15 | Casey Janssen – Tor P | $7 | Yuniesky Betancourt – Mil 2B | $2 |
| Billy Butler – KC 1B | $15 | Kyle Seager – Sea 3B | $7 | Rickie Weeks – Mil 2B | $2 |
| Ryan Zimmerman – Was 3B | $15 | Asdrubal Cabrera – Cle SS | $6 | Carlos Ruiz – Phi C | $2 |
| Matt Holliday – StL OF | $15 | Will Middlebrooks – Bos 3B | $6 | Denard Span – Was OF | $1 |
| Freddie Freeman – Atl 1B | $15 | Lorenzo Cain – KC OF | $6 | Mark Ellis – LAD 2B | $1 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma – Sea P | $15 | Jedd Gyorko – SD 2B | $6 | J.J. Hardy – Bal SS | $1 |
| Jose Altuve – Hou 2B | $15 | Yonder Alonso – SD 1B | $6 | C.J. Wilson – LAA P | $1 |
| Mark Trumbo – LAA OF | $15 | Paul Konerko – CWS 1B | $6 | Mark Melancon – Pit P | $1 |
| Curtis Granderson – NYY OF | $15 | Pedro Alvarez – Pit 3B | $6 | A.J. Pierzynski – Tex C | $1 |
| Adam LaRoche – Was 1B | $14 | John Buck – NYM C | $6 | Edwin Jackson – ChC P | $1 |
| Allen Craig – StL 1B | $14 | Glen Perkins – Min P | $6 | Dustin Ackley – Sea 2B | $1 |
| Matt Cain – SF P | $14 | Josh Willingham – Min OF | $6 | Marco Scutaro – SF 2B | $1 |
| Max Scherzer – Det P | $14 | Greg Holland – KC P | $6 | Wandy Rodriguez – Pit P | $1 |
| Jacoby Ellsbury – Bos OF | $14 | Nate McLouth – Bal OF | $6 | Jonathan Lucroy – Mil C | $1 |
| Everth Cabrera – SD SS | $14 | Jim Johnson – Bal P | $6 | Alexei Ramirez – CWS SS | $1 |
| Ian Desmond – Was SS | $14 | Rafael Betancourt – Col P | $6 | Zach Cozart – Cin SS | $1 |
| Clay Buchholz – Bos P | $14 | Lance Berkman – Tex 1B | $6 | Trevor Plouffe – Min 3B | $1 |
| Gio Gonzalez – Was P | $14 | Todd Frazier – Cin 3B | $6 | Brandon Beachy – Atl P | $1 |
| Mike Minor – Atl P | $14 | Alfonso Soriano – ChC OF | $6 | David Phelps – NYY P | $1 |
| Aroldis Chapman – Cin P | $13 | Nick Swisher – Cle OF | $6 | Dillon Gee – NYM P | $1 |
| Elvis Andrus – Tex SS | $13 | Derek Holland – Tex P | $6 | Drew Stubbs – Cle OF | $1 |
| Jhonny Peralta – Det SS | $13 | Brandon Belt – SF 1B | $6 | Nolan Arenado – Col 3B | $1 |
| Wilin Rosario – Col C | $13 | Trevor Cahill – Ari P | $6 | Cameron Maybin – SD OF | $1 |
| Brett Lawrie – Tor 3B | $13 | Homer Bailey – Cin P | $6 | David Hernandez – Ari P | $1 |
| Carl Crawford – LAD OF | $13 | Mike Moustakas – KC 3B | $6 | Brandon League – LAD P | $1 |
| Carlos Beltran – StL OF | $13 | Andrew Cashner – SD P | $5 | Wade Miley – Ari P | $1 |
| Yadier Molina – StL C | $13 | Andrelton Simmons – Atl SS | $5 | Steve Cishek – Mia P | $1 |
| Sergio Romo – SF P | $13 | Bobby Parnell – NYM P | $5 | Josh Reddick – Oak OF | $1 |
| CC Sabathia – NYY P | $12 | Aaron Hill – Ari 2B | $5 | A.J. Griffin – Oak P | $1 |
| Ben Zobrist – TB 2B | $12 | Victor Martinez – Det C | $5 | Trevor Rosenthal – StL P | $1 |
| Austin Jackson – Det OF | $12 | Matt Garza – ChC P | $5 | Dayan Viciedo – CWS OF | $1 |
| Mike Napoli – Bos C | $12 | Melky Cabrera – Tor OF | $5 | Rex Brothers – Col P | $1 |
| Johnny Cueto – Cin P | $12 | Brandon Crawford – SF SS | $5 | Erick Aybar – LAA SS | $1 |
| Zack Greinke – LAD P | $12 | Francisco Liriano – Pit P | $5 | Mark Teixeira – NYY 1B | $1 |
| Joe Mauer – Min C | $12 | Matt Joyce – TB OF | $5 | Kendry Morales – Sea 1B | $1 |
| James Shields – KC P | $12 | Ian Kennedy – Ari P | $5 | Chris Johnson – Atl 3B | $1 |
Trading isn’t easy. It’s fun, but not easy. Remember that you don’t have to “win” the trade in order to pull the trigger. If you’re improving your team, then you should make the deal.
Each-and-every week fantasy baseball owners send us their trade proposals and/or offers via our “Quick Fix” and Twitter to determine if the offer is fair and whether or not the trade should be proposed or accepted.
This week’s theme? Mike Trout.
Impatient fantasy owners were calling for Trout’s head on a splintered Louisville Slugger just a week ago, claiming there was no way he’d come close to a repeat of twenty-twelve. Ha, couldn’t they just see that it would take eight weeks for the sophomore phenom to be triple slashing .302/.378/.582 and on pace for 34 HRs, 34 SBs, 120 runs and 120 RBI?
At any rate, here are some deal that recently went down for Mike Trout:
@thefantasyfix Gave up Harvey 3 weeks ago…
— Iakovos Bond (@IakovosBond) May 23, 2013
Matt Harvey is an elite arm and he’s had one of the more amazing starts to season in my recent memory. But this is a classic buy-low, sell-high robbery — ski-mask style. Trout is a once-in-a-gneration type player; he’s the same player tat was selected first overall at your drafts just eight weeks ago.
@thefantasyfix i tried to make an offer in a league to buy out remaining 2 years of keeper status.Was told nothing was good enough
— Andrew Wheeler (@TheAndyWheeler) May 23, 2013
Sorry, Andrew. The owner you were looking to fleece apparently had his patience pancakes for breakfast. You had the right idea, for sure, but doesn’t seem like much you could do if “nothing was good enough.”
@thefantasyfix I offered A. Jones and Y. Grandal for Trout a few days ago. The guy also wants my Goldschmidt, Freeman & J. Baez. Dick.
— Skogman 4 President(@Skogman4Prez) May 23, 2013
Now, who’s trying to fleece who here? I”d probably mortgage some of the strengths on my roster to acquire Trout as well, but this offer was absolutely ridiculous.
The point in this exercise is for you to see the current values of players. More often than not you should be buying low — like a Cole Hamels right now, or selling high — like a Jean Segura — but at the end of the day you still have to be happy with your team.
Have a question about our Week 7 Tools of the Trade? Leave it in the comments below.
The concept for the this trade value chart has been adapted from Dave Richard’s fantasy football work at CBS.
All of our statistics are courtesy of our friends at FanGraphs .
Host Brett Talley (@TheRealTAL) is joined by fellow Fix writer, Chris Garosi (@chrisgarosi). Chris and Brett discuss hot and slow starts both on the mound and at the dish. They touch on guys like Nate McLouth, Everth Cabrera, Matt Kemp, Yoenis Cespedes, Patrick Corbin, Clay Buchholz and many, many more. Give it a listen!
DraftKings Team of the Day
Today I’m playing the $1 Double Up contest, and when you sign up at DraftKings don’t forget to claim your deposit bonus.
Before we get to the lineup of the day, please take note of this SPECIAL OFFER. For anyFIRST-TIME depositor at DraftKings, if you deposit at least $25, you will receive an extra $10 from DraftKings. That’s right. Click on this link, deposit a minimum of $25 and receive a bonus $10. Please allow for a few days for the extra money to be processed to your account.
Pitcher: Kris Medlen vs. NYM
Jordan Zimmermann vs. PHI – By wOBA, the Mets are the fifth-worst team against righties and the Phillies are the second-worst team against righties.
Catcher: Brian McCann – Ridiculously under-priced, he’s been homering and walking a ton since returning to action.
First base: Anthony Rizzo – Has a very nice matchup against homer-prone Bronson Arroyo.
Second base: Ben Zobrist – Better against righties and is a good bet to get on base.
Third base: Josh Donaldson – Crushes lefties.
Shortstop: Jean Segura – Still under-priced and still crushing the ball.
Outfield: Jason Heyward – Been hitting well since coming off the DL
Jay Bruce – Crushing in May and facing a righty.
Norichika Aoki – Hits righties very well.
Thursday Recap
Cleveland 12, Boston 3 – The Indians roughed up Ryan Dempster for four earned runs in only three innings. Dempster walked four and struck out four, and his ERA is now 4.69 after three straight starts of no more than five innings and no fewer than four runs allowed. Mark Reynolds didn’t homer, but he finished with three RBI. Carlos Santana walked four times, and his OBP is .420 now. Daniel Nava went 2-for-2 and walked twice. He has a .400 OBP and is batting second for the tough Red Sox lineup.
Toronto 12, Baltimore 6 – Kevin Gausman was roughed up in his major league debut, going five innings and allowing seven hits, two walks and four earned runs. He struck out five and gave up one home run. He averaged 97 mph on his fastball, according to Brooks Baseball, and he threw four pitches at least five times apiece. Chris Davis, Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, J.P. Arencibia and Edwin Encarnacion all homered. Manny Machado had three hits and two RBI.
Minnesota 6, Detroit 7 – Miguel Cabrera homered. Of course he did. Josh Willingham hit two homers, and while he’s batting only .212 on the year his OBP is a nice .368.
Los Angeles Angels 5, Kansas City 4 – I hate always having to type out Los Angeles’s or New York’s or Chicago’s full team name. It’s just a pain. Anyways, Joe Blanton won but only struck out one batter. Ervin Santana allowed four homers and has now given up more homers (10) than walks (9) on the season. Eric Hosmer had two hits, and Salvador Perez returned to the lineup and promptly recorded three hits. Jeff Francoeur went 0-for-3, but don’t tell Ned Yost or Dayton Moore about that.
Source: Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images North America
We all know there is a strong correlation between swinging strike rate (SwStr%) and strikeout rate (K%). But how strong is it? And how can we take that correlation and determine which players are most likely to see a rise or fall in strikeout rate going forward based on their ability to miss bats?
To determine how strong the correlation between K% and SwStr% really is I compiled a sample of all starters who faced 210 batters or more from 2010-2012. I chose 210 because 70 batters faced is the point at which strikeout rate becomes stable in a season. But the floor could have been higher and the result would have largely been the same. Below is a graph showing the correlation between K% and SwStr% in that sample.
If you’re not familiar with what that R2 number means, it basically means that SwStr% explains about 64% of the variance in K%. That’s a very strong correlation. I test for correlations between numbers all the time and rarely get anything that high. Almost anytime an R2 is over .50, it’s significant. We knew there was a strong correlation, but know we’ve verified it and know exactly how strong it is.
The next step is to take this knowledge and see who is under and over performing in strikeout rate so far. To make that determination I started by calculating the slope of the line in the graph above. The slope is just a value indicating the steepness of the line. The higher the value, the steeper the line will be. Here the slope is essentially 2 (1.9648). This means that for every increase of one percentage point in SwStr% we should expect to see an increase of two percentage points in K%. For example, if a pitcher has a 10% SwStr%, we should expect him to have a 20% K% (20/10 = 2).
I took all starters who have faced 70 or more batters this year and multiplied their current SwStr% by 1.9648, which, again, is the slope of the line in the graph above and the relationship we should expect to see between SwStr% and K%. I called that number expected K% (xK%). Then I calculated the guys with the biggest gaps between their actual K% and their expected K% to identify who is most likely to see a rise or fall in K%. Below are the starters whose xK% is more than one standard deviation from the mean in either direction.
Let’s start with the guys on the extremes. First of all, my boyfriend, Jarrod Parker! I loved Parker this preseason. I drafted him in a ton of leagues. I recommended him to all my friends who had drafts. I wrote about my love for him several times here on the site. And so far he’s made me look stupid. But this gives some hope. The league average K% for starters is currently an even 19%, and Parker’s SwStr% indicates his K% should be safely above average at 21.2% instead of 15.9% where it is now.
It’s also worth noting that Parker saw his velocity increase significantly from the beginning of last year to the end. His velocity this year is right in line with his averages from last year, but if it increases as we move into summer, he could potentially see more swinging strikes and strikeouts than this exercise even forecasts.
Admittedly, Parker may be failing to rack up strikeouts at the rate we think he should because of his struggles with command. His walk rate is in double digits so far this season due in some part to the fact that he’s not inducing hitters to swing at a high enough rate. The Swing% of batters against Parker this year is 45.4% compared to 48% against all starters. He obviously gets them to miss more often than most when they do swing, but he’s got to be more consistent with his control so that they will swing more often.
Parker is only owned in about 26% of ESPN.com ten-team leagues, so we’re not really talking about him as a trade target in 10 and 12 team leagues. He’s likely owned in leagues deeper than that and worth trying to trade for if you’re looking for cheap pitching help. But if your rotation is struggling in shallower leagues and you can’t seem to work out a trade for pitching, you might add Parker and see if he can turn it around.
On the other side of things, Jake Peavy and Shelby Miller stand out as potential guys to trade away.
Peavy’s 28.4% K% is well above his career average, and he hasn’t had a K% above 25% since 2009. In 2009 he had a SwStr% of 10.2%. This year his SwStr% is only 9.2%, which is right about where it was in each of the last two seasons when his strikeout rates were 20.2% and 22%. There is little doubt in my mind that Peavy’s K% will return to that 22% range. And that’s a more than respectable rate. But maybe there’s a chance you could deal Peavy for someone who actually has a chance to maintain a K% near 25%.
For example, how about someone who appears on the good side of the list like Cole Hamels? I’ve actually discussed Hamels in each of my last two pieces here on the site (which you can find here and here), and in each of them I cited two other reasons why he should bounce back that had nothing to do with SwStr%. Who knows if you could actually get Hamels for Peavy? But it can’t hurt to try. Offer it.
What about offering Peavy for Hiroki Kuroda? This one isn’t as easy as the decision to try and trade him for Hamels, but it’s something you should consider. Compare the numbers below of Peavy and Kuroda since the beginning of 2012.
Peavy has a clear edge in strikeouts, but Kuroda has a sizeable advantage in two of the four roto categories, wins and ERA, while WHIP is essentially a wash. Given the fact that Kuroda’s expected K% for 2013 is higher than Peavy’s it’s not unreasonable to expect Peavy’s strikeout advantage to diminish. You might be hesitant to offer Peavy for Kuroda, but you probably should. If you can’t get Hamels of course.
A.J. Burnett, Clay Buchholz, Justin Masterson and Matt Moore join Miller as the other big “sell” candidates. Of that quartet, Moore should be the easiest to sell. He has that sexy young gun persona and a 2.29 ERA that should make him an attractive guy to other owners. You should try to trade him for Hamels as well. If you can’t get Hamels, you should go for another name on the “good” list, CC Sabathia.
Miller has a similar if not quite equal persona and an even sexier 1.74 ERA. But Moore has a little more name value and has been around a little longer. Hamels and CC owners probably won’t bite on Miller. But they might bite on Kuroda, and swapping Miller for Kuroda would be an absolute coup in my opinion. Kuroda’s 1.99 ERA might make him unattainable for Miller as well as for Burnett, Buchholz and Masterson. If you can’t get Kuroda for them, try for guys like Doug Fister and Jeff Samardzija.
Thanks as always to Fangraphs for the data.
Source: Patrick Smith/Getty Images North America
We have just passed the quarter pole, so it is high time we look at how players at each position are performing and which ones will be on the trade block this summer. More often than not, seeing how players are performing can tell us which teams will be in the market for a player from that position. Certainly, third base is no different. As we move through these positions we should get a handle on our limitations. Pinpointing performance during the season is often like nailing jello to a wall. Conditions and numbers can change overnight as the performance of Miguel Cabrera on Sunday night can attest.
Those that have the opportunity should really take the opportunity to watch him hit. He does not field his position particularly well or run the bases well (which is why Mike Trout should have been the MVP), but if you consider him only in the batter’s box, there is no one better. Furthermore, when you can count 2013, he is in the midst of one of the best three year stretches in history. The Tigers will not be in the market for a third baseman and they won’t be dealing Cabrera for quite some time. Let’s look at how some of the other guys are doing.
|
Team |
RC |
BR |
Total |
|
| Miguel Cabrera | Tigers |
37 |
1 |
38 |
| Evan Longoria | Rays |
33 |
-1 |
32 |
| Manny Machado | Orioles |
31 |
0 |
31 |
| David Wright | Mets |
28 |
1 |
29 |
| Josh Donaldson | Athletics |
28 |
0 |
28 |
| Kyle Seager | Mariners |
25 |
1 |
26 |
| Adrian Beltre | Rangers |
24 |
0 |
24 |
| Pablo Sandoval | Giants |
24 |
-1 |
23 |
| Chase Headley | Padres |
18 |
0 |
18 |
| Todd Frazier | Reds |
17 |
1 |
18 |
| Michael Young | Phillies |
17 |
1 |
18 |
| Luis Valbuena | Cubs |
18 |
0 |
18 |
| Chris Johnson | Braves |
17 |
0 |
17 |
| Trevor Plouffe | Twins |
16 |
1 |
17 |
| Martin Prado | Diamondbacks |
14 |
0 |
14 |
| Will Middlebrooks | Red Sox |
13 |
1 |
14 |
| Ryan Zimmerman | Nationals |
14 |
0 |
14 |
| Matt Dominguez | Astros |
12 |
-1 |
11 |
| Brett Lawrie | Blue Jays |
9 |
1 |
10 |
| Alberto Callapso | Angels |
10 |
0 |
10 |
Note: Numbers above taken at the quarter pole (40-41 games)
Chase Headley– San Diego Padres
When you consider that Headley missed the first few weeks of the season, his ranking here has to be looked at very positively. There were many that considered his 2012 season to be a fluke, so at least those critics have been squelched for the time being. The problem for the Padres is that they really don’t have the money to pay Headley like an elite superstar. If Evan Longoria’s contract is a point of reference, it will take more than 100 million to secure Headley if the Padres want to go six years or more.
If they go on a shorter term deal it will likely cost more per season. The counterargument is to deal Headley before the deadline to one of baseball’s bigger markets. For Headley, that would almost certainly mean playing in a better hitter’s park. That could vault him from the ranks of very good to superstar in fantasy circles. For the Padres it would be becoming one of the prospect filthy rich.
Luis Valbuena– Chicago Cubs
Valbuena represents the other half of the trade deadline population. He has been a utility guy for much of his career, but he is playing regular third base now. It marks an excellent opportunity for the Cubs to get close to everyday player price for a player that will not be a regular for them long-term. The receiving team gets a semi-regular to help them down the stretch. Valbuena would hold a lot of value for a National League contender because he can play all of the infield positions and pinch hit.
Chris Johnson– Atlanta Braves
On a long enough timeline, the survival rate drops to zero. The good folks in Atlanta have to know that they are living on borrowed time as Johnson is concered. Juan Francisco at least looks like he has the potential to hold down the regular third base job. Those that grew up watching Johnson in Houston keep waiting for the other shoe to drop. The strikeout to walk ratios for his career have been consistently awful and his defense is atrocious. Betting on Johnson is akin to betting on craps. If you have a hot streak you have to know when to walk away with some of the casino’s money in your pocket.
|
Team |
RC |
BR |
Total |
|
| Mike Moustakas | Royals |
11 |
-1 |
10 |
| Kevin Youkilis | Yankees |
9 |
-1 |
8 |
| Placido Polanco | Marlins |
10 |
-2 |
8 |
| Nolan Arenado | Rockies |
7 |
0 |
7 |
| Aramis Ramirez | Brewers |
8 |
-1 |
7 |
| Pedro Alvarez | Pirates |
8 |
-1 |
7 |
| David Freese | Cardinals |
6 |
0 |
6 |
| Lonnie Chisenhall | Indians |
7 |
-1 |
6 |
| Jeff Keppinger | White Sox |
1 |
-1 |
0 |
| Luis Cruz | Dodgers |
-4 |
-1 |
-5 |
Luis Cruz– Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers’ worst nightmare has come true. Hanley Ramirez has hardly been healthy and Luis Cruz has turned back into a pumpkin. In fact, that would be an insult to pumpkins everywhere. Cruz is the worst regular in baseball according to total runs. Not coincidentally, the Dodgers are languishing in last place in the National League West despite having a payroll that would make the Yankees blush. Despite their lowly position, they are still likely to be buyers as a healthy Ramirez and some timely pitching would make them sudden contenders. Add a decent third baseman and that might be enough to carry them.
Jeff Keppinger– Chicago White Sox
Baseball is a lot about timing. It is how a team like the Rays can pay so little for someone that produces good numbers and how a team like the White Sox can pay so much for a dud. Some of it is in the use of advanced statistics but some of it is common sense. Keppinger is not a regular on a championship level team. He is a premium utility player that can sometimes get hot and look like a regular. If the White Sox are in it they can add another third baseman and still get some use out of Keppinger.
Lonnie Chisenhall– Cleveland Indians
The Indians have been waiting for two years for Chisenhall to claim the third base position. They are still waiting. If they are in the hunt in July and Chisenhall is still struggling they may postpone his ascension for another season. I don’t see them adding a Headley because they can’t afford him anymore than the Padres can, but someone like Valbuena or Johnson could be helpful because of their ability to play multiple positions.
Today marks a unique challenge when it comes to playing Draftkings. There hasn’t been a day in the season with this few games on the docket. My normal strategies really don’t play out here because there are only five games on the docket. That leaves you with only ten starting pitchers to choose from and ten position players at each position. The normal weeding out of players is difficult based on that. Some teams don’t have regulars at certain positions, so you are really left with a skeleton crew.
So, since we have to throw caution and strategy to the wind, I would suggest playing one of the cheaper games and a game with shorter odds. Therefore, I’m playing in a Double Up! contest. Personally, I will probably be going with one of the one dollar games, but you can choose to do what you want. Don’t forget to get your deposit bonus here. If you can take any comfort from a day like today it is that every other player in your contest has to deal with the same issues as you. There’s just going to be a lot less predictability.
Before we get to the lineup of the day, please take note of this SPECIAL OFFER. For anyFIRST-TIME depositor at DraftKings, if you deposit at least $25, you will receive an extra $10 from DraftKings. That’s right. Click on this link, deposit a minimum of $25 and receive a bonus $10. Please allow for a few days for the extra money to be processed to your account.
My Lineup
Pitcher: Ervin Santana vs. Los Angeles Angels
This one is a pretty easy one considering the lack of choices we have. Santana has pitched well on the season so far while his opponent (Joe Blanton) sits at 0-7 with an astronomical ERA. If the Angels hadn’t spent so much money (relatively) on Blanton I would suspect he would be out of the rotation by now. He might be following this contest, so get in while the getting is good.
Pitcher: Jeanmar Gomez vs. Chicago Cubs
You talk about slim pickings. Gomez is the only other pitcher on the docket with a sub 3.00 ERA. I have to admit he probably has done that with the grace of God and a long-handle spoon. Still Edwin Jackson (his opposing pitcher) has struggled for much of the year, so you can say the Pirates have a decent chance of winning this contest. Brandon Morrow and Ryan Dempster are also decent plays for your second pitching slot. Let’s just say it’s all guess work on a day like today.
Catcher: Jarrod Saltalamacchia vs. Zach McAllister
In lieu of playing matchups we are focusing on going with the hot hand. Salty has been hitting the ball of late and so we should take advantage of the hot streak while we can. Meanwhile, McAllister would fit somewhere comfortably in the mediocre category. This seems like a solid play on a day like today.
First Base: Eric Hosmer vs. Joe Blanton
Joe Blanton is probably one more start away from being demoted to the bullpen or being designated for assignment. Take advantage of his largesse on his last day in the rotation. The worst that can happen is that he actually pitches well and gives fantasy players another opportunity to pick on him down the road. Only Phillip Humber (now in AAA) has done worse on the season.
Second Base: Jason Kipnis vs. Ryan Dempster
Kipnis has been playing well lately and Dempster has been getting shelled lately. This seems like a match made in heaven. Kipnis is also one of those guys I like to call accumulators. He doesn’t necessarily wow you with his percentage numbers, but he seems to rack up the home runs, runs, RBIs, and stolen bases. Those all mean big time points for you.
Third Base: Will Middlebrooks vs. Zach McAllister
Studying Will Middlebrooks early career is like studying a volatile period in the stock market. There are extreme highs (like his three home run game) and extreme lows (like hitting under the Mendoza line for much of April). He seems to be in the midst of an upswing, so it makes sense to take advantage of that.
Shortstop: Alcides Escobar vs. Joe Blanton
I can’t afford not to take advantage of Joe Blanton. If you play only one guy against him you are nuts. Unfortunately, there are some positions (2B, 3B, RF) where you really can’t afford to play anyone, but other than that feel free to go all in against Blanton.
Outfield: Alex Gordon vs. Joe Blanton
See above.
Outfield: Andy Dirks vs. Scott Diamond
Andy Dirks has had a relatively quiet season so far, but he will put up some numbers that might surprise you down the line. He is currently hitting around .250, but he has five home runs on the season. If he keeps to that pace he will hit close to 20 home runs on the season. Today feels like one of those days he will bust out. Scott Diamond was solid last season, but he is a low strikeout guy. This season he has turned back into a pumpkin.
Outfield: Josh Willingham vs. Rick Porcello
Willingham has gotten off to a slow start (“only” six home runs) but has an excellent pedigree. He’s also going up against a pitcher that has been hit hard on the season. It seems like a decent play to me when you consider there aren’t too many alternatives.
Yesterday’s Action
Don’t look now, but Mike Trout is on the prowl. He has lifted his average up to .297 and he is on pace to hit nearly 30 home runs. No, he isn’t quite the player he was last season, but who could possibly follow up a season like that? Last season, the whole Angels season turned around when Trout was called up. Now, it may turn around as he begins to approach the player he was last season.
Meanwhile, they had role reversal in Baltimore. Jason Hammel had been hit hard while Hiroki Kuroda had been brilliant. It turned out the other way as Kuroda left following the second inning. Chris Davis continued his magical season going 4 for 4 with a home run and two RBIs. Nate McLouth stole his AL leading 14th base in the victory as well.
Not everything is sour in Las Angeles. The Dodgers and Angels have been disappointing this season, but the decision to sign Hyun-Jin Ryu wasn’t one of those bad decisions. He moved to 5-2 on the season with a 3.30 ERA. With Ryu, Clayton Kershaw, and Zack Greinke fronting their rotation you can never fully count out the Dodgers.
I still remember the first time I went to Las Vegas like it was yesterday. I had pretty good success at playing video poker and I did decently at the blackjack tables. My undoing ended up being a new game called “Let it Ride.” My young and foolish heart saw the big winnings I could get with one really good hand. My mind had yet to catch up. The problem is the long odds made winning such a hand rare. My money went as quickly as I could put it down.
Similarly, playing daily baseball can be much the same. I am in no position to tell anyone how to spend their money, but I like the odds as even as I can find them. Therefore, I’m playing in a Double Up! contest. Don’t forget to get your deposit bonus here. You can make your odds even better than even if you make it a practice to pick the right pitching. My methadology is pretty simple. I’ll try to narrow the field to no more than ten pitchers on a full day’s slate and then pick from there based on matchups.
Before we get to the lineup of the day, please take note of this SPECIAL OFFER. For any FIRST-TIME depositor at DraftKings, if you deposit at least $25, you will receive an extra $10 from DraftKings. That’s right. Click on this link, deposit a minimum of $25 and receive a bonus $10. Please allow for a few days for the extra money to be processed to your account.
My Lineup
Pitcher: Hiroki Kuroda vs. Baltimore Orioles
Kuroda profiles under what we might call the middle class of pitching. However, this is a case where the match-up is the most important aspect of the selection. As I said above, I try to select the top third of the starters to make a selection. Of course, I do the reverse to see who to start on the offensive end. When you have a top tier starter going against a bottom tier starter you are looking at a good opportunity for an easy victory. Winning pitchers earn five points for your team.
Pitcher: Cliff Lee vs. Miami Marlins
If you can’t face a struggling pitcher you can face a struggling team. As the dust settles on the first quarter of the season, one thing is for certain: the Miami Marlins have the worst offense in baseball. It would be unfair to even compare the next worst offense to them. Kevin Slowey has been solid enough for them, but Cliff Lee hardly ever beats himself and it looks like the Marlins are not going to be capable of beating him.
Catcher: Chris Iannetta vs. Brandon Maurer
The Angels are in terrible shape right now and Iannetta has not played regularly, but provided he is in the lineup he has a fair chance to do well against Maurer. So far on the season, Maurer has done just enough to stay in the rotation. We invested heavily in pitching on this day, but good pitching should earn you roughly half of your points.
First Base: Mitch Moreland vs. Jarrod Parker
This is another opportunity to save and still get good value. Moreland has quietly reached double figures in home runs and Parker has struggled for much of the season. Many complained of the Rangers letting Michael Young go via trade, but Moreland has more than solidified first base for them while Lance Berkman serves as an able DH. Look for Moreland to have more success today.
Second Base: Kelly Johnson vs. Mark Buerhle
Save. Save. Save. Jurickson Profar is also a decent play for those that want to roll the dice. I like to go with some semblance of a track record, so I went with Johnson. Johnson has become the Rays’ 2013 version of Jeff Keppinger. He has found the fountain of 2011 as he seems on pace to hit 20 home runs. He plays a lot of left field, but he is also eligible at second base. Mark Buerhle is very hittable these days.
Third Base: Alberto Callaspo vs. Brandon Maurer
Going with economy options can be challenging. There are productive part-time players on the board, but the worst thing you can do is earn zero points with your guy on the bench. Callaspo plays almost every day is normally somewhat productive in favorable match-ups like today. He won’t bust out for 20 points very often, but he is a steady 5-10 point producer on good days like today.
Shortstop: Erick Aybar vs. Brandon Maurer
This is a tough position to pick from these days. I tend to follow my rules on picking match-ups as following a set formula tends to work out better than playing hunches. Aybar is a lot like Callaspo in the sense that he won’t bust out with 20 points very often, but he is a steady 5-10 point producer. Andrelton Simmons and Elvis Andrus are solid plays as well, but I was looking for the economy option.
Outfield: Andre Ethier vs. Wily Peralta
The young hurler has had some good outings, but most of them have been sub-par. Meanwhile, the star right fielder has finally begun to pick up the production some. Therefore, you might be able to get all-star production for less than all-star prices. I always look out for gaps between perception and reality when it comes to pricing. Ethier is a relative bargain these days.
Outfield: David Murphy vs. Jarrod Parker
David Murphy is like the left field version of Mitch Moreland. He was under appreciated coming into the season because of the departure of Josh Hamilton. Through roughly a quarter of the season, he is on pace to hit 20 home runs and drive in more than 60 runs. In the last two weeks he is hitting .353/.410/.676 as he looks to be headed closer to 25 home run and 80 RBI territory. Not bad from a player at this price.
Outfield: Nelson Cruz vs. Jarrod Parker
I find myself double and tripling up against certain pitchers. I don’t always do that intentionally and this is one of those instances where it was a happy coincidence. The problem is that you want to strike the balance between an elite outfielder (who is expensive) with someone that won’t produce. Cruz may be somewhat cold in his last two weeks (.190/.217/.476) but the slugging percentage is a key indicator that he is still doing some damage (4 HR). So, take this as an all or nothing play.
Yesterday’s Action
Of course, every game is important to every player and every team, but to fans there are only so many match ups that can pique your interest on any particular day. In this case, we usually look to the intradivision match ups that will have some effect on the playoff races. Every game holds equal value, but you can’t win any divisional championships in May. You sure can lose them though.
Oakland Athletics vs. Texas Rangers
This one was a pitcher’s duel between Yu Darvish and Dan Straily. Straily won this one 1-0. Darvish is obviously the Cy Young candidate and he didn’t disappoint on this afternoon. Unfortunately, the Rangers attack managed only three hits against three Athletics’ pitchers. The Rangers still hold a 4.5 game lead in the division, so the contest only served to keep the A’s in the division race.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins
No, the Marlins aren’t in the race. The Phillies might be in the race if they can take care of business in Miami. Ryan Howard was the star of the show on this night going three for five with three runs batting in. Delmon Young also hit his second home run on the season.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays
This was a battle of two divisional foes trying to hold on. The Rays want to hold on long enough until they can call up Wil Myers and until David Price returns from the disabled list. The Blue Jays are waiting for Jose Reyes and Josh Johnson to return to health. Obviously, the Rays have been a lot more successful and it is due to the efforts of guys like Alex Cobb (5-2, 2.73 ERA). Kelly Johnson hit his eighth home run to help the Rays edge the Blue Jays 4-3.
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles
The Yankees are still in first place, but the Orioles continued their magic in extra frames by beating the Yankees 3-2. The common denominator seems to be Jim Johnson and his brilliant pitching in the late innings. His performance this year hasn’t been quite as good this year, but it was on this day. Meanwhile, Tommy Hunter continues to pitch well in relief. Former Yankee Chris Dickerson did the damage with two home runs.
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