The 2014-2015 NBA season is set to commence on October 28, the time to conduct fantasy basketball drafts is dwindling by the minute. With that being said, identifying your busts beforehand is the prudent thing to do for any ardent fantasy owner who aims to have success throughout the given season. One of the better ways to assess a players potential fantasy value is by examining the average draft position data. While ADP isn’t the be-all and end-all of draft preparation as each draft is unique in and of itself, it gives you a general idea of where to expect players to be drafted.
A variety of factors come into play when evaluating why a certain player may be overvalued compared to other ballers. Free agency/trade additions, age, head coaches, contract years, injury, can all have a collective impact on the fantasy value of said player. For the purposes of this column the ADP data will be focused on Yahoo, which you can find right here. For context, ADP data from FantasyPros will also be included. You’ll see each players respective ADP to the right of their name. Additionally, only players with an ADP inside the top 100 will be examined for the simple reason being you can’t be too terribly overvalued coming after the first hundred picks. Without further ado, here are the 15 most overvalued players as of right now.
Kyrie Irving (14.8 Yahoo!/15.7 Fantasy Pros) - Unless you were living under a rock this summer, odds are you probably heard about the stunning acquisitions of LeBron James and Kevin Love for the Cleveland Cavaliers. When you add two of the best ten players in the league to your squad, you can imagine the domino effect it will have on Irving’s fantasy value. Even as the alpha dog for the Cavs last year, Irving was only the 24th ranked player in a standard 9-cat Y! league. It surprises me that many expect him to provide second-round value again this year with Love and LeBron in tow after he barely did so last year. Here are his final 2013-2014 per-game averages: 20.8 points, 6.1 assists, 3.1 rebounds, 1.7 3PM, 1.5 steals, 0.3 BLK and 2.7 turnovers on 43 percent shooting and 86 percent at the charity stripe.
We all know what a great playmaker LeBron is with the ball in his hands and this will end up being detrimental to Irving’s usage rate. Irving will likely see a dip in his points, assists, and free throw attempts and this is an unsettling development since he derives so much of his value from the aforementioned categories. Irving has gotten to the line nearly five times a game the last two years and that number will surely fall, although not enough for him to lose too much value since he sinks free throws at a 86 percent clip for his career. Theoretically, his FG% should increase with less field goal attempts and his turnovers should drop a hair, so those improvements could buoy his value. Perhaps the most glaring reason Irving should be selected with caution is his propensity for being injured. Over his first three NBA seasons, Irving has managed to play in 181 of 230 possible games. In other words, he’s missed 21 percent of games in his career due to a myriad of injuries. While you certainly can’t win a league with your first two picks, you can certainly lose it by making the wrong one. Early-round selections should have plenty of upside, but also a high floor. In Irving’s case, don’t overestimate his ceiling. If possible, avoid selecting him until the 3rd round. [Read more...]