Normally our NHL expert, Josh Kay (@stopbuntingplz), would be doing today’s NHL write up, but he’s taking a leave of absence for a few weeks to attend to a family matter. We wish him well and hope he’s back soon. But until then we’ll have some other people filling in for our NHL DFS content. Today I’ll be taking a stab at a healthy slate of games, 11 to be exact.
My methodology is a little different than Josh’s so let me explain my process. I’m not nearly as familiar with the NHL as Josh is (of course, very few are more familiar with the NHL than Josh), so I use numbers to identify the best plays of the day. What I’ve done is take numberfire.com’s rest-of-season projections and calculate how many DraftKings fantasy points each player is projected to score per game from here on out. I’ve then made my own adjustment for the quality of each player’s opponent. Then I see how far above or below average that projection is. I then compare that to how far above or below average the player’s price is. If the schedule-adjusted projection is further above average than the player’s price, then he’s a good value play and vice-versa.
Below I’ve got a discussion of some of the best matchups and stacks of the day and then rankings of individual players for cash games and rankings of stacks.
Make sure to check Twitter for any injury news tomorrow afternoon, and check Daily Faceoff for starting goalies.
It’s no secret that Buffalo is awful and picking on them is common practice in daily contests. Aside from the Sabres, the other great matchup of the day according to a mix of Corsi against and team save percentage is Calgary. They’re the only team remotely close to Buffalo in my matchup statistic, and they’re really not that close. But they are far ahead of the third best matchup of the day, Toronto. Past that the only other teams that are a well above average matchup for opposing skaters are Anaheim and Montreal. But we’ll primarily be picking on Buffalo and Calgary.
Winnipeg is the lucky team that draws Buffalo tonight, so how do we choose which Jets to play? A good place to start would be their top line that also serves as the three forwards for the Jets’ top power play unit, center Bryan Little ($5,500, C) with wingers Andrew Ladd ($6,100, LW) and Blake Wheeler ($6,400, RW). I’m fine stacking all three if you want to do so, but I’m not as high on Ladd as the others. Prior to making the matchup adjustment to the projections, Wheeler and Little had projections that were almost exactly as far above average as their price. However, Ladd’s price was much farther above average than his projection prior to adjusting for the good matchup. So I’ll probably roll with a Little/Wheeler stack. [Read more...]