As we stand about one-week from the mid-summer classic, players around the league are starting to slip into their routines and get comfortable. Often around this time of the season, the same can be said for most fantasy managers. But, routines in fantasy sports are a shade above laziness and can lead to careless handling of your squad. Don't forget that diligence pays off when it comes to fantasy baseball. New standout players are emerging from under the radar each week, posting huge numbers. Here are some potential second-half stars who are most-likely still available in your league.
JP Howell, Closer Tampa--ADD IMMEDIATELY - Currently, Howell's owned in only 38% of ESPN leagues, however, that percent is quickly rising. He has the skill-set and will get the opportunities to become one of the five elite fantasy closers for the second half of the season. Over the past 30 days, Howell has secured the Ray's closers role, struck-out 12 in 11IP's and, over that time, possesses the pristine ERA of 0.00. Expect Tampa to be very competitive in the second-half with Howell being a key to their success and potentially emerging as a dominant top-tier closer for future seasons. He is just below the radar and should be added immediately to just about any team, regardless of your position or situation.
Randy Wells, SP Chicago Cubs-- (3.19 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 3W)(Owned in 19% of ESPN leagues) Wells' record currently stands at 3-3. Don't be fooled, he's much better than that. But, if you are in doubt, look no further than his 9 solid starts in 10 attempts. His last 3 wins came in his last 3 starts. Wells would be a welcomed addition even to fantasy pitching staffs deep with talent. He's still below the radar, but is rolling right now and should be added in all formats as soon as possible.
Dallas Braden, SP Oakland--(3.13, 1.26, 6W, 67 Ks in 126 IP)His strike-out per 9 doesn't rival Tim Lincecum's, but the fact that he's owned in only 8% of leagues speaks volumes about the availability of below-the-radar talent this season. Plain and simple: 17 starts this season, and allowing over 3 earned runs only ONCE. I'm not sure there's another SP in MLB this season who can say the same. Being a heavy, trusty anchor to your ERA and WHIP while winning a moderate percentage of the time make Braden a great find.
Ricky Romero, SP Toronto--(2.85, 1.14, 6W, 61K's in 66IP)Romero's owned in only 35% of ESPN leagues, but is quickly on the rise. Although he's shown slight control issues, he took a no-hitter into the 6th against Phillies, and has been racking up wins-- including 4 in his last 4 starts. If Romero is available, and you have a player on your roster who's been under-performing or is in a bit of a funk, the smart fantasy move is to swap the two...Romero could maintain a sub 3.30 ERA the rest of the way. He is quickly moving above the radar, so if he's still available in your league, get him.
Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Fix, Under the Radar, Evan Hersch, Dallas Braden, Randy Wells, JP Howell, Ricky Romero, Fantasy Baseball, Expert Advice
As we stand at the mid-point of June, we watch the closer carousel spin faster and faster...some players are falling-off, others are stepping-on…some lasting just one go-around before being ousted, others a little longer.
Having the right insights to help you pluck the closers from your free-agent pool with the most immediate upsides while your disabled closer in on-the-mend, will make the difference between winning and losing the save category for the next few weeks--and prevent unnecessarily burning your limited add/drops in the process.
Here are a few closers that will be gaining saves in the short-term, and possibly longer:
HIGHLY RECOMMENDED, ACT FAST!
David Aardsma (Seattle)--(12 Saves, 1 Blown Save, 1.72 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) Aardsma has been about as lights-out of a fill-in closer as you're going to find, and remember, even though he's on a bad team, the few wins that Seattle does accumulate are likely to be save situations, as a team with their anemic offense rarely wins in a blow-out. He also has an impressive array of pitches and will get you a healthy amount of K's (36 K's in 31.1 innings pitched).
Aardsma is currently available in 68% of ESPN leagues at the current time--if he's available in your league, don't hesitate.
MODERATELY RECOMMENDED
Jason Frasor (Toronto)--(1 Save, 1 Blown Save, 1.88 ERA, 0.79 WHIP) Despite articles on other websites claiming that the Jays may be taking a closer-by-committee type approach, and also despite the fact Frasor blew a save yesterday afternoon against the Phillies, Frasor is the favorite to win this job solo, period. With Scott Downs out 4 to 6-weeks, Frasor is by far the most qualified and most dominant. The fact that he's owned in only 9% of all ESPN leagues proves just how far below the radar Frasor is flying.
Lets look at the players he's "competing" with for the closer job:
Jeremy Accardo--Accardo was just recalled from Triple-A this Thursday to fill an open roster spot, and although he earned 30 saves in 2007 while filling in for BJ Ryan, there's a reason he was in Triple-A this year--he struggled mightily early-on this season for the Jays. And although he's looked better since joining Triple-A, he will likely be used in middle relief, as recalling a player from Triple-A and throwing him directly into the closer role is something rarely, if ever, done.
BJ Ryan is also in the mix, but he simply isn’t the pitcher we’re used to seeing in years past--he's weaker, wilder and less effective--so we can all but rule him out as a possibility.
Frasor is about as dominant as any reliever in baseball thus far, posting an ERA of 1.88 and a WHIP of 0.79 in 24 innings of work. Toronto's Manager Cito Gaston won't make the mistake of putting the save chances on the shoulders of anyone else. Furthermore, if Frasor shines, don't bet on Downs bouncing him from the closer role when he returns 4-6 weeks from now. Toronto is a formidable squad who gives their closers ample opportunities, so Frasor’s stock is about to soar.
ONLY THE DESPERATE NEED APPLY
Mike MacDougal (Wash)--(2 Saves, 0 Blown Saves, 1.04 ERA since trade from CHW) Whenever you add a guy like MacDougal, you know you're rolling the dice. That said, he has little competition for the closer job in Washington, and, to his credit, has done well since being handed it. He just extinguished the Yankees in back-to-back nights this week--and on the Yankees’ tiny new field, which is a very good sign. While his effect on your ERA and WHIP has yet to be determined, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him yield between 1 and 2 saves per week on average for the indefinite future. Like Seattle, Washington's wins usually come down to the wire, yielding MacDougal a fair amount of opportunities. Keep in mind he also throws in a pitcher's park.
Questions? Comments? Feel free to leave feedback. Thanks for reading,
Evan Hersch The Fantasy Fix Team
Tags: Fantasy Baseball, Roto, MLB, Closers, Game Saver, Blue Jays, Mariners, Nationals, Evan Hersch, The Fantasy Fix
by Evan Hersch
To call BJ Upton’s past 9 months a “roller-coaster” might even be an understatement--those who selected him highly in this year’s fantasy drafts know this all too well. Start with his remarkable 7 HRs in last year’s playoffs…followed by a tough World Series defeat to Philadelphia…then off-season surgery…and the latest…a dreadful April and May.
For the 1st 2 months of this season, Upton didn’t just "kind of disappoint"—he became a weak link, burdening fantasy managers coast-to-coast. The wretched .204 batting average he produced over the 1st 2 months of the season will attest to this. His upside value on the base paths was partially diminished by his low OBP, and seeing Carl Crawford break from the gates with one of the best starts to the ‘09 season of any player, and you basically have a pressing, and difficult situation—that’s the long and short of BJ’s April and May of 2009—and most likely no one was happier to see May come to an end than him.
Fortunately, for Upton, June has been a renaissance—as of the date this article was written, Upton’s batting average for the month of June (.271) has been 53 points higher than his average for the month of May (.218). Add to that, 9 steals in just 12 games (albeit 6 of them coming against the Nationals--but in an impressive 3 game span) and we can all agree that things are finally starting to look good. Upton’s OPS for June (.748) is 141 points higher than his OPS for all of May (.607). He is likely on his way back to settling at, or around, the healthy OPS averages he established in his ’07 and ’08 campaigns (.894 and .784, respectively).
Fantasy P.O.V.
If you’re still looking to “buy low” on BJ Upton this season, it’s likely your ship has sailed; however, the opportunity to get him at a good value in your league is probably still there for you to take advantage of. While it’s true that his HRs in 2009 are down (only 3 thus far), keep in mind that he hit 24 HRs in 2007, and he still owns the skills he displayed then. Also, it’s difficult to write-off his 7 HRs versus top-AL pitching in a span of only 33 at-bats in last year’s AL playoffs as a fluke.
Only time will tell if the power-hitting version of BJ Upton will return in his full form. But, regardless of whether the slumping start was simply a reaction to his off-season surgery or something else entirely, Upton is clearly a player on the rise, and is a solid candidate to be a 2009 second-half fantasy star—at the very least in the runs and steals categories, and at the very most in all offensive categories.
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