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Daily Fantasy Hockey Strategy: New Year’s Eve

stars land
Jason Spezza, Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin
Source: Ronald Martinez/Getty Images North America

This post only covers the eight game slate of NHL contests on DraftKings starting at 7:00 p.m. ET.

Below I’ve got a discussion of the best matchups and potential stacks of the day followed by cash game rankings. At the bottom of the post I’ve embedded my research chart for the day. Here is just a snippet of the chart I’ll use to explain what you’re looking at.

NHL DFS ex.

First the colors. Blue is amazeballs, green is great, yellow is good, orange is bad, red is awful and deep red is no effing way.

The first column that isn’t self-explanatory is the fifth one, the one that is titled ‘z’ to the right of salary. That is how far above or below average the player’s salary is compared to all other players at his position in action today. Then we have ‘OPPz’ which is how far above or below average the player’s matchup is. Quality of matchup is determined with a mix of Corsi against and save percentage of the team the player will be facing. ‘Pts/Gm’ is a projection derived from numberfire.com’s rest-of-season projections. The ‘z’ next to the projection is how far above or below average the projection is compared to all other players at the position in action today. ‘zDIFF’ is the difference between the projection z-score and the salary z-score. ‘zTOTAL’ is the player’s projection z-score combined with his matchup z-score. And the ‘zDIFF’ is zTOTAL minus the player’s salary z-score. zDIFF is the main thing we’re looking at.

Make sure to check Twitter for any injury news, and check Daily Faceoff for starting goalies.

Stack Options

It seems like Edmonton always plays on the days that I do NHL write-ups, and so this section of the post always starts with a riff about how great of a matchup Edmonton is for opposing skaters. They have the worst goaltending in the league and are a below average possession team, so they let quite a few shots get thrown in the direction of that bad goaltending. It’s an excellent recipe for goals.

Calgary will face Edmonton tonight, and I think Calgary was facing Edmonton either the last time I did a write-up or the time before. The last time I picked Flames against Edmonton I suggested the top line of Gaudreau-Granlund-Hudler. Johnny Hockey delivered with a couple of goals, but Granlund had a bagel. It’s tough picking a combo of players in Calgary because Granlund doesn’t get powerplay time while Gaudreau and Hudler play on the top unit together. But Granlund is such a great value at a price of just $2,900, and Gaudreau’s recent success has driven his price up and thus driven his value down. I’m fine stacking the whole line together or just going with the wingers, but I’ll probably go with Markus Granlund ($2,900, C) and Jiri Hudler ($4,800, W) as a mini-stack from this lineup. I considered the second line pair of Sean Monahan and Curtis Glencross, but this game is in Calgary and the first line gets more offensive zone starts, so I’m guessing that first line may get put into the better situations tonight with last change.

The next best matchup of the night belongs to my beloved Dallas Stars. I’ll be in attendance at this one rooting for the Stars to take their seventh win in their last eight games and for whichever stack I take from the team to do most of the scoring. For cash games, the second line provides the best value on the team. Jason Spezza ($4,900, C) and Erik Cole ($2,900, W) don’t play on the same power play unit together, but they do each get PP time. Cody Eakin and Antoine Roussel are also pretty good values but only Eakin gets PP time, and Spezza/Cole see significantly more offensive zone starts. Dallas’ top line might be too expensive to build a cash game lineup around, but Tyler Seguin ($9,300, C) and Jamie Benn ($6,900, W) are always a fun GPP stack with their upside. That said, I’m listing plenty of cheaper options here, so you should be able to fit them into cash lineups.

Dallas is almost as good of a matchup for Arizona as Arizona is for them. Again, it comes down to a first line or second line stack, but I’m going with the Arizona first line because right winger Mikkel Boedker ($4,000, W) grades out as the best value of any Coyote in consideration. He is joined on the first line and top PP unit by Antoine Vermette ($4,600, C). That pair leads all Arizona forwards in scoring and sees a healthy amount of offensive zone starts. Although second line center Sam Gagner ($4,400, C) sees a ton of offensive zone starts, especially on the road, so he makes for a good cash game play himself.

The two next best matchups are stay aways for me today. That’s Boston against Toronto and Edmonton against Calgary. I’m staying away from Boston because Patrice Bergeron and Milan Lucic are both game time decisions, and the Bruins will not have a morning skate. Their line combos for tomorrow are just too up in the air depending on whether one, both or neither of them can play. And then I’m staying away from Edmonton tomorrow because the guys on their top line don’t grade out as a good values. Their new acquisition, Derek Roy ($2,600, C), looks like a good, cheap cash game play if you’re looking for one, but I don’t see a stack.

The only other teams with matchups that are comfortably above average today are Pittsburgh and Columbus. I don’t think any of the Pittsburgh big guns look like good enough values to use today. I’d rather spend my money on Benn/Seguin or something like Couture/Marleau. But I do think Chris Kunitz ($5,100, W) is a nice value today . He can be used on his own as a cash game play, or you can stack him with second line center Brandon Sutter ($3,100, C). As for Columbus, both Ryan Johansen ($5,500, C) and Scott Hartnell ($5,100, W) grade out as nice values. That pair plays on the first line and top PP unit together, so I like that stack quite a bit.

Price-Adjusted Cash Game Rankings

Center

1. Jason Spezza – $4,900 – Dallas Stars
2. Ryan Johansen – $5,500 – Columbus Blue Jackets
3. Antoine Vermette – $4,600 – Arizona Coyotes
4. Sam Gagner – $4,400 – Arizona Coyotes
5. Markus Granlund – $2,900 – Calgary Flames
6. Derek Roy – $2,600 – Edmonton Oilers
7. Logan Couture – $6,500 – San Jose Sharks

Winger

 1. Chris Kunitz – $5,100 – Pittsburgh Penguins
2. Jiri Hudler – $4,800 – Calgary Flames
3. Mikkel Boedker – $4,000 – Arizona Coyotes
4. Jamie Benn – $6,900 – Dallas Stars
5. Scott Hartnell – $5,100 – Columbus Blue Jackets
6. Wayne Simmonds – $5,100 – Philadelphia Flyers
7. Erik Cole – $2,900 – Dallas Stars
8. Reilly Smith – $4,200 – Boston Bruins
9. David Jones – $2,900 – Calgary Flames

Defense

1. Mark Giordano – $6,400 – Calgary Flames
2. Derrick Pouliot – $2,500 – Pittsburgh Penguins
3. Sami Vatanen – $4,100 – Anaheim (Mighty) Ducks
4. Brent Burns – $5,900 – San Jose Sharks
5. Kris Letang – $5,600 – Pittsburgh Penguins
6. David Savard – $2,900 – Columbus Blue Jackets

Goalie

Goalies with an asterisk next to their name are second on their team’s depth chart, so don’t count on them playing. Any players in bold have been confirmed as the starter for the day. And players with a line through their name will not be starting tonight. Make sure you always check Daily Faceoff for starting goalie updates in case I am unable to update the list throughout the day.

1. Semyon Varlamov – $6,800 – Colorado Avalanche
2. Cory Schneider – $7,100 – New Jersey Devils
3. Jonas Hiller – $7,500 – Calgary Flames
4. Jimmy Howard – $7,400 – Detroit Red Wings
5. Marc-Andre Fleury – $8,800 – Pittsburgh Penguins

Research Chart

You can download the research chart from this Google Sheet page here.

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