Welcome to the Julio Urias edition of our 2015 “30 Prospects in 30 Days” series. We’ve decided to review some of the top prospects ranked by some of our favorite prospect analysts for fantasy baseball purposes. You can see some of the other recent prospects discussed here: Corey Seager, Miguel Sano, Addison Russell, Dylan Bundy, Jonathan Gray, Noah Syndergaard, Kris Bryant, Joey Gallo, Francisco Lindor and Carlos Correa.

Profile

Julio Urias is an 18-year-old Mexican-born, left-handed pitcher that sits atop most of the the credible prospect lists entering 2015. The young southpaw stands five-foot-eleven and weighs approximately 160 pounds. He was originally signed by the Los Angeles Dodgers back in August of 2012 at the age of sixteen along with a group of other prospects from the Diablos Rojos del Mexico out of the Mexican League.

The legend of Julio Urias doesn’t solely rest on his ability to attack hitters with three “above-average” offerings with command; the legend stems from Urias’ ability to be an outstanding talent on the mound after having a tumor removed from his left eye. Organizations were turned off by the health of Urias, wondering if there would be long-term effects, such as blindness, due to the tumor and/or resulting surgery, but the Dodgers went all-in on the hurler.

Pundits

Kiley McDaniel of FanGraphs ranks Urias as the fourth-best prospect in his top-200 as we enter the 2015 season. In his profile of the Dodgers’ prospect, McDaniel notes the quantity of plus-offerings with advanced command along with his youth.

Urias now sits in the low to mid-90′s and touches 97 mph with three plus pitches and advanced command, and he’s still just 18. He’ll start 2015 in Double-A and when he’s called up is simply a function of when the Dodgers want to start his arbitration clock, because we haven’t seen him fail yet, so we don’t even fully know his ceiling.

ESPN’s Keith Law lists Urias as the ninth-best prospect in baseball and the second-best pitcher, behind only Lucas Giolito of the Washington Nationals. Like McDaniel, Law discusses Urias’ youth, monitored workload and the potential to possess three or four above-average offerings. Here’s a bit more from Law:

The story here is less about his age than about his present skill set, which isn’t that far away from being ready. By the time he has been built up enough to handle a starter’s workload, he’ll be working with three or four above-average pitches and ready to make an immediate impact on a major-league rotation.

MLB.com slots Julio Urias in at the eighth spot on their top prospect list. They have the following to say:

[Urias] has a filthy three-pitch repertoire. He has a 91-96 mph fastball with solid life that he can throw to either side of the plate. If hitters try to sit on it, they usually regret it because he can cross them up with a big-breaking curveball and a deceptive changeup with fade.

It’s safe to say that the pundits hold Julio Urias and his potential in high regard. The praise is consistent when discussing the arsenal, but the pundits’ evaluations do differ with respect to the lefty’s command. This is common and should shake itself out as Urias matures.

Production

The Dodgers brass has had Urias on very strict pitch counts since making his professional debut in May of ‘13. He appeared in 18 games (54.1 IP) for the Great Lakes Loons of the Midwest League followed by 25 games (87.2 IP) for Rancho Cucamonga of the Advanced-A California League. Here’s how he did:

Urias was the youngest player in the Midwest League. He was selected to play for the World Team during the 2014 All-Star Futures Game. Additionally, Urias was named the Minor League pitcher of of the year for the Los Angeles Dodgers organization.

Projection

Urias has a long future ahead of him, but 2015 may not be in the short-term plans for the Dodgers. He did receive a an invite to Spring Training, but it would be surprised if the Dodgers start his arbitration clock in the early going. Steamer doesn’t project innings pitched for Urias, but they do feel he’ll post a 4.31 ERA (4.36 FIP) with an 8.1% K-BB%. ZiPS suggests 22 starts with about 90 innings on the bump with a 3.77 ERA (3.94 FIP).

Prediction

Urias will likely start the season in Double-A, but he could find his way to the Majors should the Dodgers elect to start the arbitration clock for the youngster. For fantasy purposes, Julio Urias shouldn’t be considered in redraft leagues at this time but needs to considered in keeper and especially dynasty formats.